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Oil tankers avoid Hormuz in advance of US blockade
Shipping data shows that oil tankers are avoiding the Strait of Hormuz in anticipation of a U.S. blockade on Monday, following the failure of?peace negotiations between the U.S. The President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that the U.S. Navy will begin blocking the Strait of Hormuz. This is a major step after the marathon talks between Iran and the U.S. failed to produce a peace agreement, putting a fragile ceasefire of two weeks in danger. The U.S. Central Command announced that U.S. Forces would begin to implement the blockade on all maritime traffic?entering or exiting Iranian port at 10 a.m. ET (1400 GMT), on Monday. In a press release on X, it stated that the ban would "be enforced impartially" against all vessels of any nation?entering and departing Iranian coastal areas and ports including all Iranian port on the Arabian Gulf or Gulf of Oman. It said that U.S. forces will not hinder the freedom of navigation of vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz between non-Iranian port and the Iranian ports. Additionally, additional information will be given to commercial mariners via a formal notification prior to the start of the blockade. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards warned on Sunday against any military vessel that attempted to approach the Strait of Hormuz. They said this would be considered as a breach of the ceasefire, and they will be dealt with harshly. Data from LSEG & Kpler shows that on Sunday, Pakistani flagged tankers Shalamar & Khairpur entered Gulf. Data showed that the Aframax tanker Shalamar will be heading to the United Arab Emirates to load Das crude, while the?Panamax sized Khairpur will be heading to Kuwait to fill refined products. Pakistan National Shipping (which manages Shalamar) did not respond immediately to a comment request outside office hours. Mombasa B (flagged Liberia) is a?very large oil carrier (VLCC), which transited also the strait on Sunday. The data shows that the VLCC Agios Fanourios I flying the flag of Malta, which attempted to cross the strait to enter the Gulf on Sunday in order to load Iraqi crude oil from Basra for Vietnam, turned around and is now anchoring near the Gulf?of Oman. The tanker is heading to Iraq. Eastern Mediterranean Maritime which manages Agios Fanourios 1, and CMB.TECH NV who is the manager of the Mombasa B did not'respond to any requests for comments outside of office hours. Shipping data revealed that despite the deadlock, three supertankers, fully loaded with oil, passed through the Strait of Hormuz Saturday. These vessels appeared to be among the first to leave the Gulf after the ceasefire agreement was reached last week. Reporting by Florence Tan, Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman
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Viva Energy, Australia's largest energy company, faces an extra $17.5 million in costs after regulatory review
After a review by the Australian corporate regulator, Viva Energy has revised its testing of the value of its retail fuel and convenience sites for impairment. This will result in an additional A$25m ($17.55m) in impairment charges on 2025 accounts. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission questioned the fuel retailer’s previous approach to?grouping certain sites into a larger Shell Card cash-generating units, arguing that?individual outlets? should be assessed individually so their recoverable value could?be determined. The regulator said that Viva had adopted the revised method in its financial statements for its year-end?December 2025 and increased the total impairment charges on the convenience?retail networks to?A$558.8 millions. The company didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. The additional charge is only 4.5% of the total write down, but it signals a tightening of regulatory scrutiny on accounting decisions and highlights the pressures that Viva faces in valuing its retail network. ASIC stated that Australian accounting regulations'requires companies to test assets for impairment individually whenever possible and only use broader cash-generating units when standalone valuations are not possible. In its report for 2025,?Viva stated that applying the revised method retrospectively 'wouldn't have materially impacted prior-periods results. The company's shares rose as much as 7.2% on Monday to a new 14-month high, helped by higher oil prices and an increase of 3.8% in the energy sub-index.
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Analysts say that the shock of the Iran war will cause a market deficit by 2026.
Analysts say that the sharp drop in global oil production caused by the Iran War is set to turn the oil market this year into a'supply deficit. This will be a dramatic change from previous forecasts of a 'comfortable surplus. The conflict that began with U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28, has effectively stalled oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This passageway accounts for a fifth of all global oil consumption. Attacks on energy infrastructure and production shutdowns have also severely reduced output. According to eight analysts surveyed by, the oil market will be oversupplied by 750,000 barrels a day this year. In a similar poll conducted in September, a 1,63 million bpd excess was predicted for 2026. This was largely due to OPEC+ unwinding some of their output cuts and the strong production by other producers such as the U.S. Brazil and Guyana. International Energy Agency estimated that 'the war' had reduced oil supply by 11 million bpd at the end of march, whereas ANZ Bank estimated that 9 million bpd had been removed from crude supply in a note dated April 9. According to the IEA, global oil supply in January was approximately 106.6 million bpd. Analysts in the poll said that these immediate shocks will translate into a production loss of 2.13 million bpd on average over the course of the year. Analysts expect the market will see its biggest deficit in the second quarter - around 3 million BPD - before tipping back into a surplus in the fourth. Analysts warn that the projected deficits may increase depending on how long the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. The flow of goods through the Strait remains constrained. Traders have reported no signs that a sustained return to shipments has occurred since Tuesday's ceasefire announcement. Vikas Dwivedi is the global energy strategist for Macquarie Group. He estimates that 136 million barrels (of crude oil and other products) are still stuck in the Gulf as a result of the conflict. It will take some time to clear the backlog. Even though the ceasefire has been declared, many?shippers are still facing challenges. There have been reports that Iran plans to charge ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz fees. Dwivedi stated that "issues include insurance, and the risk of transacting with Iran (by paying tolls) if sanctions are violated." RESTORING PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED BUMPY The war-related supply disruptions prompted the biggest annual price forecast rise in poll records last month. Analysts raised their 2026 Brent forecasts to $82.85 per barrel by about 30%. Oil prices have risen by around 50% due to the war. It will take several months to restore oil production levels prior to the conflict, depending on damage done at oilfields by attacks and shutdowns and how easily shipping can flow through Hormuz. Analysts at ANZ say that even under a 'constructive security scenario', output will only partially recover in the short term. Around 2 to 3 million bpd could return in the first months as export shipments resume. Another 2 to 3.5 millions bpd may be returned to the market in the second quarter. They said that despite the fact that recovery will not be easy, it is likely to be hampered by operational friction, damaged infrastructure, and export bottlenecks. ANZ also said that there is a possibility of around 1 to 2 million bpd capacity being permanently lost or restricted even after the war. This would lead to a tighter and more volatile market.
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Dollar and oil prices rise after US-Iran Peace Talks Collapse
The dollar and oil both jumped Monday after the U.S. and Iran failed to reach an agreement, leaving a fragile ceasefire in the air and no end to Middle East energy exports. S&P futures fell 1% early in the day. Benchmark Brent crude oil futures soared 8% to $100 a barrel. The euro dropped about 0.5%, to $1.1672. Investors were reluctant to place large bets on the Asian stock market as they awaited a sign of a negotiated settlement to a six week conflict that had already driven oil prices 30% higher. The Nikkei in Japan fell by 0.4%. South Korea's KOSPI dropped by 1.4%. And the S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.6%. The marathon talks in Islamabad came to a deadlock and the U.S. announced a blockade of Iranian port, apparently to stop Iran from exporting oil, or charging tolls for transiting the Strait of Hormuz - the choke point of the Persian Gulf. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump and his advisors were considering limited'strikes against Iran, but there were no immediate reports in early Asian trading of attacks to disrupt a fragile U.S. - Iran ceasefire which has held largely since last week. Saul Kavonic, analyst at MST Marquee, said: "The market has returned to a condition similar to that before the ceasefire. However, the U.S. is also blocking the remaining Iranian-linked flow of up to 2 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz." The key question remains if the U.S. continues to strike Iran. This could lead to strikes on the energy infrastructure in the region, which would have an impact that would last beyond the duration the war. U.S. Treasury Futures fell in early trade, and gold, which had been a losser as investors cashed out their profits from the long 'pre-war rally', fell by almost 2%. The Australian dollar and the sterling, which are both risk-sensitive currencies, fell by 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. The dollar increased 0.3% to 159.78 Japanese yen. Hungarian forint soared in emerging markets after Viktor Orban, Hungary's veteran nationalist leader, lost to a centre-right coalition. Investors are bracing themselves for the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England to raise rates, a sharp reversal of their pre-war predictions of rate cuts, or a long pause. Trump stated on Sunday that oil and gasoline prices may continue to rise through the midterm elections in November, an acknowledgement of possible political consequences from the war.
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Dollar increases as US-Iran failed peace talks spark safe haven demand
Investors sought relative safety in the dollar against other major currencies during early Asia trading Monday. This was after marathon talks between Washington, D.C. and Tehran failed to produce a peace agreement, plunging the?markets into uncertainty for a seventh consecutive week. Donald Trump said on Sunday that the U.S. Navy will begin blockingading the Strait of Hormuz. This is a choke point for 20% of daily energy supplies in the world, which?Iran has effectively shut down since the start of the war late February. This has caused oil prices to rise by more than 30%, and fueled fears of inflation. As Asian markets opened, the dollar rose, which had acted as a haven due to the limited exposure the United States has to import energy-price inflation. The euro fell 0.53% to $1.1663, while the Japanese yen gained 0.1% to trade at 159.43. US stock futures dropped?more that 1% late on Sunday in U.S. trading. After last week's announcement of a ceasefire, the S&P 500 recovered this week as the market hoped that the Middle East conflict was nearing an end. By Friday, the S&P 500 had recovered nearly all of its losses since the U.S. began military strikes with Israel in late February. Investors initially reacted positively to the announcement of a ceasefire between the U.S.A. and Iran, which was made on April 7, by selling some oil and investing some money in risk assets like stocks. Concern over the fragility has led to a unwinding of these trades. Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at City Index, said: "This is a complete unwinding of any optimism going into the peace negotiations?into this play of dollar safe-haven oil jumping and selling everything else." On the other hand we've seen markets exaggerate at times. "I think the market struggles to price this scenario correctly because there's so much uncertainty and so many unknowns." The Australian dollar and the sterling, which are more risk-sensitive currencies, have been under pressure. They fell by 1.1% and 0.5% respectively. Investors have priced in the possibility that several central banks such as the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England will be inclined to raise interest rates in this year. This is in stark contrast to expectations before the war, when borrowing rates were expected to remain unchanged or even fall. The global equities are still around 2% lower than they were before the war broke out. This is despite optimism that the United States and Iran would reach a resolution. Since late February, gold has dropped about 10% as investors now prefer the dollar to gold as a safe haven. The market has returned to its pre-ceasefire conditions, with the exception that the US is blocking the remaining Iranian-linked oil flows of up to 2 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz. This was confirmed by Saul Kavonic of MST Marquee, an analyst based in Sydney. The key question remains whether the U.S. The key question is whether the U.S. Trump acknowledged on Sunday the possible political consequences of the war by saying that oil and gasoline prices may remain high until the midterm elections in November.
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Dublin takes action to reduce fuel prices by removing blockades, as Irish police do
Irish police cleared Sunday 'tractors and trucks which?had blocked traffic?and blocked?oil infrastructure throughout the country in a wave protests against rising fuel prices. To ease discontent among consumers and businesses, the government announced tax reductions and spending increases totaling 500 million euros (586 million dollars) to help reduce the negative impact. Protesters angry by the more than 20% increase in diesel prices since the start of the Iran War, used vehicles to block an?oil?refinery and two ports. They also blocked a fuel terminal, Irish roads, and a fuel?terminal. The protests disrupted transport in Dublin and left a third (or more) of Ireland's fuel stations without fuel. Finance Minister Simon Harris described this as a "very danger moment" for Ireland. The police removed vehicles that were blocking the only oil refinery in Ireland on Saturday, cleared a blockade at Galway Port (a major fuel depot), and removed roadblocks on Dublin on Sunday. The government refused to negotiate with the protesters who included farmers and drivers, as well as contractors. They complained that a previous 250 million euro package temporarily reducing taxes on gasoline and diesel was not enough. Dublin, however, announced measures after talks with agricultural and transport groups. These included a reduction of 10 cents per litre for petrol?and diesel and a postponement of the increase in a carbon tax. The government announced that a fuel subsidy scheme would be implemented for agriculture and fishing. A survey in the Sunday Independent newspaper revealed that 56% of respondents supported the protesters. However, most of the supporters of the two ruling parties were against them.
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Nigerian airstrike on market in northeast Yobe, 200 people feared dead
Residents and a councillor in the area said that at least 200 people are feared to have died after Nigerian military planes struck a village's market on Saturday night while pursuing Islamist terrorists. Nigeria's Air Force claimed to have killed Boko Haram terrorists on the Jilli axis of Borno State, but did not mention a "market" in a Sunday statement. The Nigerian Air Force did not reply to any further questions. The strike took place in a village near the border of Borno in Yobe, the long-running heartland of an?insurgency which has claimed thousands of lives and forced millions to flee their homes. Lawan Zanna Nur Geidam is the councillor of Fuchimeram Ward in Yobe's Geidam District and the?traditional leader of Fuchimeram. She told?vermögenzeug???sprachdersprachsprachsprachsprachsprache or Lawan Zanna Nur Geidam, the councillor and?traditional head of Fuchimeram ward in Yobe's Geidam district told? "This is a devastating incident that happened at Jilli Market." In a telephone conversation, he told the interviewer that "over 200 people lost their lives in the air strike on the market as I speak to you." Three other residents and a representative of an international humanitarian organization confirmed the strike and its likely death toll. The Yobe State Emergency Management Agency (SEMA), which activated emergency response, said that it received preliminary reports about an incident at Jilli Market. Ahmed Ali, 43, who is a resident and sells medical consumables in the market, claimed to have been injured by a blast. "I was so terrified that I tried to run, but my friend dragged me. We all fell on the floor," he said from the hospital. Reporting by Ahmed Kingimi in Maiduguri and Adewale Kolawole in Kano; writing by MacDonald Dzirutwe, editing by David Goodman & Alexander Smith
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Australia and the US increase support for critical minerals by $3.5 billion
Canberra announced 'on Sunday' that Australia and the U.S. had committed a total of more than A$5 Billion ($3.5 Billion) to a number of important mineral projects. This is nearly twice the amount pledged six months ago when the two countries signed a cooperation agreement. The funding is intended to?support Australian ventures that develop and refine metals vital to industries such as defence, advanced manufacturing, and energy transition. This market has been long dominated by China. The funding will help reindustrialise America's high tech manufacturing base while also helping to "counter China’s export dominance" and ensuring Western supply-chain reliability, the two countries said in a framework agreement last October. Australia and the U.S. committed to investing at least $1 billion each in a $8.5 billion pipeline for priority critical minerals projects between the two countries within the next six months. Australia is a rich source of rare earth minerals, but China is the master of the environmentally and technically challenging refining process. In a press release, Resources Minister Madeleine King stated that "Australia and the U.S. deliver on the White House commitments with priority projects in Australia which?support the production of rare Earths and critical minerals". "Australia is leading the world in diversifying supply chains of critical minerals and rare Earths that are essential to Australia's economic and national security and to our trading partners. Refinery Project Backed Export Finance Australia and the U.S. Export-Import Bank will be responsible for funding A$5 billion of critical Australian mineral projects. EFA and EXIM issued letters of interest and support for a project to build a rare earths refining plant owned by Tronox Holdings. The investment is worth a total of A$849 million. King explained that Tronox with operations in Western Australia as well as the U.S. would use its existing mining and process capabilities to create mixed rare earth carbonate, which contains both light and heavy elements of rare earth. The agencies also committed to a combined support of up to A$1 Billion for Ardea Resources’ Kalgoorlie Nickel project in Western Australia. The framework also supports Alcoa’s Gallium Recovery Project and Arafura’s Nolans Rare Earths Project, as well as graphite ventures. King stated that additional projects for minerals such as vanadium, scandium, and graphite have received support.
Stocks and the dollar fall as US-Iran talks fail
The dollar and oil prices jumped Monday after the U.S. and Iran failed to reach an agreement, leaving a fragile ceasefire in the air and no end to the choke on Mideast exports of energy.
Early trade showed that stocks were expected to drop in Asia. S&P 500 futures fell around 1.1%. Benchmark Brent crude opened at $102.37 per barrel, up about 7.5%.
The euro dropped about 0.5%, to $1.1672.
The marathon talks in Islamabad came to a deadlock and U.S. president Donald Trump said on Sunday that the U.S. Navy will blockade the Strait of Hormuz.
Since the beginning of the war in late February, Iran has closed the chokepoint for 20% daily global energy supplies. This has caused oil prices to rise by over 30% and fueled fears about a spike in inflation which has wreaked havoc on bond markets.
U.S. Treasury Futures fell in early trade, and gold, which had been a "loser" as investors cashed out their profits from the long pre-war rally, fell nearly 2%.
Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at City Index, said: "This is a complete unwinding of optimism leading into the peace talks and into that play of safe-haven dollar; oil jumpers and selling everything else."
On the other hand, we have seen markets exaggerate at times. The market struggles to 'price' this scenario correctly because of the uncertainty and unknowns.
Early Monday, moves brought many asset prices near the levels they were trading at in the middle last week before the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement.
The market has returned to the conditions prior to the ceasefire. However, the U.S. is also blocking the remaining Iranian-linked oil flows of up to 2 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Saul Kavonic of MST Marquee in Sydney.
The key question that remains is whether the U.S. will renew its strikes against Iran. This could lead to strikes on the energy infrastructure in the region, which would have an impact far beyond the duration and end of the war.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump and his advisors are now considering limited strikes against Iran.
The Australian dollar and the sterling fell 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. The dollar increased 0.3% to 159.78 Japanese yen.
Investors have priced in the likelihood that several central banks such as the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England will be inclined to raise interest rates this year. This is in stark contrast to pre-war expectations of cuts or stable rates.
The global equities are still around 2% below their pre-war levels, despite the optimism generated by the belief that the United States would be able to reach a resolution with Iran.
Trump acknowledged on Sunday the possible political consequences of the war by saying that oil and gasoline prices may remain high until the midterm elections in November.
(source: Reuters)