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Investors' reactions to Trump's agreement to a two-week ceasefire in Iran
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, announced on Tuesday that Iran had agreed to a ceasefire lasting two weeks. This was less than 'two hours' before Trump set a deadline for Tehran to open up the Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on civilian infrastructure. Oil fell, bonds rose and stocks soared after the ceasefire. It was seen as opening the door to a lasting peace as well as resuming Gulf oil and gas exports. Here are some comments from analysts and investors: JAMIE COX MANAGING PARTNER HARRIS FINANCIAL GROUPS, RICHMOND VIRGINIA Markets had predicted that Trump would be looking for a way out of Iran. He got it today and took advantage of it. The markets have been moving higher in the last few weeks due to a rise in the number of tough talks, which is usually followed by the inevitable twist in order to reach a settlement. BESA DEDA, CHIEF ECONOMIST, WILLIAM BUCK SYDNEY Markets are likely to show cautious optimism, since this is the first meaningful truce since hostilities started. Investors will be aware that the ceasefire may not last. It is hoped that this will happen, thus reducing the risk of an economic impact. Even if a ceasefire is ultimately reached, the damage to refineries will take some time to repair. It's better than the prolonged impact. ANDREW LILLEY IS THE CHIEF RATES STRATEGIST AT BARRENJOEY IN SYDNEY. "We have a way to go to get back to where we started. Now, the market is unsure about the extent to which the oil price will return to $75. "This little precipice, where oil is flowing and no one is in shortage, but it remains at an equilibrium price $90, is where you actually remove the tail risks that central banks are cutting. It's a scenario that will result in permanent high yields, because we'll have damaged infrastructure for months and a high oil price that is going to stick around. This means we're going get higher inflation." GEORGE BOUBOURAS, HEAD OF RESEARCH, K2 ?ASSET MANAGEMENT, MELBOURNE: Restocking the energy supply is key in the coming week, as the conflict could re-ignite quickly. It is less likely that a recession will occur if oil, gas and fertiliser are available in the coming week. The markets are never complacent and always pragmatic as they look through the conflict. Valuations'remain compelling from a one-year perspective. MARTIN WHETTON HEAD OF FINANCIAL MARKETS STRATEGY WESTPAC SYDNEY This is what we see all the time. Does this mean that people will take on new risks? It doesn't. "It would have to be a lasting, peaceful peace (to make things change). The people aren't taking any risks. It's a bunch of?algos?" BRIAN JACOBSEN CHIEF ECONOMIST ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT MENOMONEE FALLS WISCONSIN "President Trump stated that he had agreed to a ceasefire of two weeks. This is enough to maintain the hope that not only won't an entire civilization be destroyed but oil could start flowing through Strait of Hormuz. It's just like moving the goalposts, TACO Tuesday or whatever metaphor you want, only for tempers to flare up and bombs to drop again. Who knows? "But it's enough to get a positive reaction from the markets for now." (Reporting from Tom Westbrook in Singapore and Ankur Banerjee; editing by Sumeet chatterjee).
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Gold gains continue as Trump suspends Iran attack for two weeks
Markets reassessed the near-term risks after U.S. president Donald Trump said he agreed to'suspend' bombing and attacks against Iran for two-weeks, easing concerns of energy-driven inflation. After a 1.2% rise on Tuesday, spot gold rose 2.3% by 2344 GMT to $4.811.66 an ounce, while U.S. Gold futures for delivery in June gained 3.3% at $4.840.20. Trump claimed that Washington had agreed to the two-week suspension of attacks, and that Iran had sent a 10-point plan which he called a basis for negotiation. His comments followed previous warnings by the U.S. that Tehran must reopen Strait of Hormuz, or risk retaliation. "This is just a relief rally, and it's still unclear if Iran will comply. The 200-day-moving average at $4,930, and then $5,000, will be the key obstacles for gold. Tai Wong, an independent metals trader, said that $80-$81 was a key level for silver. Pakistan, who?has been mediating between Washington and Tehran had requested the two week extension to allow diplomacy to proceed. The Supreme Security Council of Iran announced that negotiations with the United States will begin Friday, April 10 in Islamabad after it sent its proposal through Pakistan. However, it also added that these talks do not signify an end to the 'war. The central bank's decision to cut rates could be complicated by rising energy prices. Gold is seen as a safe haven in uncertain times and an inflation hedge. However, when interest rates are high its appeal can be weakened. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas research suggests that a disruption in global oil trade could cause U.S. inflation to rise above 4% before the end of the year, and even higher increases are possible over the short-term. Since the Iran War began on February 28, gold has dropped more than 8%. The markets are now waiting for the minutes of the Fed's meeting in March, which is due on Wednesday. (Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Leroy Leo and Sumana Nandy) (Reporting from Anmol Choubey, Bengaluru. Editing by Leroy Leo & SumanaNandy).
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US crude falls below $100 after Trump announces a two-week ceasefire
U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell by nearly $20 per barrel after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he had agreed to an?a two-week ceasefire, subject to the safe and immediate reopening of Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude oil for May delivery dropped $18.10 or 16.02 percent to $94.85 a barrel at 2320 GMT after hitting $91.05, its lowest level since March 26. The announcement was made shortly before the deadline for Iran to either open the Strait of Hormuz where 20% of?the world's oil transits or face widespread attacks against its civilian infrastructure. He made the announcement on social media, where on Tuesday he said "a whole civilisation?will?die tonight" if his demands weren't met. Iran has said that it will stop its attacks as soon as the attacks against it cease. It also stated that a safe transit of the Strait of Hormuz is possible in coordination with Iranian forces for two weeks. In March, the U.S. and Israel war against Iran led to the steepest'monthly oil prices increase in history of more than 50%. Trump said that the U.S. received a 10-point Iran proposal which he described as a?workable basis to negotiate. He also stated that the parties are?very close to reaching a long-term agreement. Tony Sycamore, IG analyst, wrote that it was a "good start" and could pave the way to a permanent reopening. But there are still many ifs to be worked out. Helen Clark reported; Chris Reese, Jamie Freed and Chris Reese edited.
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Oil prices plunge, stocks soar after Trump announces a two-week ceasefire
After a two week ceasefire, investors cheered the possible return of oil and gas flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he had agreed to suspend the bombings and attacks against Iran for two week and that an agreement on a long-term peaceful solution was being worked out. The global markets are shook since U.S. and Israel launched an attack on Iran at the end of February. This led Tehran to close the Strait o'Hormuz - a waterway that is used to transport one fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas. U.S. crude futures dropped 16.5%, to $94 per barrel. S&P futures jumped over 2%, and the dollar fell broadly. It had been the safe haven for investors in the turmoil. Jamie Cox is the managing partner of Harris Financial Group. "Markets had predicted that Trump was searching for an exit in Iran," she said. "Today he got it and took." The 10-year U.S. Treasury futures showed a broad gain for Asia's stocks, which had been battered by war and high energy prices. Treasury futures rose about 15 ticks. The euro rose 0.76% to $1.1683, while the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar gained 1.3%. Cryptocurrencies rose as well. Trump set a deadline of late Tuesday for the?agreement? with Iran. He threatened to destroy all bridges and power plants in the country, if Iran did not reopen Strait of Hormuz. Iran reportedly said it would retaliate by attacking U.S. Gulf allies. The six-week war has sent oil prices soaring, stoked inflation fears and 'upended global rates outlooks'. Countries and companies are scrambling to adapt to the energy shock. Gold prices increased by over 2% in commodities to $4,812 an ounce. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed, Chris Reese and Ankur Banerjee).
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INSTANT VIEW: Investor reactions to Trump's agreement to a two-week ceasefire.
U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that he had reached an agreement with Iran to establish a two-week ceasefire, less than 2 hours before his deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil fell, bonds rose and stocks soared after the ceasefire. It was believed that the ceasefire would pave the way for a "lasting peace" and the resumption in Gulf oil and natural gas exports. Below are some responses from analysts and investors: MARTIN WHETTON HEAD OF FINANCIAL MARKETS STRATEGY WESTPAC SYDNEY This is what always happens. Does this mean people will take on new risks? No, it does not. "There would have to be a lasting, stable peace for things to change." The people are not taking any risks. "This is just algos doing things." BRIAN JACOBSEN CHIEF ECONOMIST ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT MENOMONEE FALLS WISCONSIN "President Trump stated that he had agreed to a ceasefire of two weeks. This is enough to maintain hope that an entire civilization will not be destroyed and oil could start flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. "Is this just about kicking the can 'down the road, moving goal posts, TACO Tuesday, or whatever metaphor you like to use, only for tempers to flare and bombs to drop again?" ?Who knows? It's good enough for the moment to get a positive reaction from the markets."
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Ghana leases Gold Fields Damang mine to local firm Engineers & Planners
The Mines Minister announced on Tuesday that Ghana has selected local mining'services' company Engineers & Planners Ltd. to take over Gold Fields Damang gold mine. Ghana, which wants to increase local ownership of its mining industry, rejected Johannesburg-based Gold Fields’ lease renewal bid last year and took control of the mine, breaking years of automatic extension. Then, it?began to assess local bids in order to revive the asset for $1 billion. Emmanuel Armah Kofi Buah, in a'statement', said that the 'Minerals Commission had recommended e&p as the winning bidder. The company showed that it could access funding of up to $500 million, which was the minimum amount required by the government. The statement also praised the company's technical expertise, equipment, safety, and local content. Gold Fields has been operating Damang mine for more than 20 years. Initially, it said that they may sell the mine due to its short life expectancy and lack of reserves. Last month, it said that 'it is working to ensure a smooth transition of the mine from the current operator to the new one. The 'tender' aims to protect jobs, keep the mine running and increase local participation. Christian Akorlie, Emmanuel Bruce and Maxwell Akalaare Adombila report; Maxwell Akalaare Adombila writes; Barbara Lewis edits.
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World Bank predicts Nigerian economic growth in 2026, but Iran war raises inflation
The World Bank stated that Nigeria's economy will grow despite the Iran war in the first half of 2026. Fiseha Haile, World Bank Nigeria's lead economist during a presentation held in Abuja said that business activity is still in expansion mode. The conflict between the U.S./Israel/Iran has so far raised prices while leaving the output mostly intact. The impact on growth is relatively limited, as the overall business activity has increased in the last few months. Haile stated that the shock was still felt by higher inflation. Bola Tinubu is now in his third year as president. He has implemented the most ambitious economic reforms in Nigeria in decades. This includes ending expensive fuel and energy subsidies, devaluing currency, and changing tax systems to stabilize an economy that was battered by inflation, currency weakness, and external shocks. Haile stated that the inflation rate has dropped sharply from 33% to 15.5% in February 2024. However, it remains high in comparison with other countries in the region and is under renewed pressure ever since Middle East conflict began. Fuel prices rose by more than half during the Iran War, affecting transport, food, and production costs. He said Nigeria should lift restrictions on fuel imports in order to ease inflation. RISK TO INCOME Haile stated that "inflation remains high and is under increasing pressure. This poses risks for incomes and poverty reduction." Nigeria's external buffers are improving as the foreign exchange reserves increase and volatility decreases. However, tighter global financing conditions continue to threaten inflows and borrowing costs. Haile stated that Nigeria's fiscal gap widened to 3.1% GDP by 2025 but remains lower than it was in the years before the reform. He also added that the debt ratio fell for the very first time in the last decade due to improved fiscal performance and gains in exchange rate valuation. The World Bank has forecasted an economic growth rate of 4.2% by 2026. It urged governments to conserve windfalls from rising oil prices, to keep monetary policies tight, and to avoid blanket subsidies to curb inflation. The World Bank stated that Nigeria should accelerate reforms beyond macro stabilisation to achieve inclusive, long-term growth. Early childhood development is a top priority. Nigeria has some of the worst outcomes in the world, with 110 children dying before they reach age five. Approximately 40% are stunted and more than 50% fail to reach developmental milestones prior to school. The recent investments in health and nutrition are encouraging. However, the challenge is to deliver "a coherent and continuous child-centred package", from pregnancy until age five. This includes health, nutrition and water sanitation as well as foundational learning.
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Brazil's power regulator moves against Enel in Sao Paulo
Aneel, Brazil's energy regulator, decided on Tuesday to "move forward" with a forfeiture procedure that could lead to the termination a concession owned by a local Enel unit in Sao Paulo. Energy Minister Alexandre Silveira asked Aneel in December to "start the termination process" for Enel after extreme weather events caused power outages that affected more than 2 million customers in the Sao Paulo metro area. Enel has another chance to defend itself before the regulator decides to recommend that the concession is revoked. The change in the process prevents Enel Sao Paulo from automatically renewing its contract that expires?in 2028. It would be difficult to sell the concession, which was the option that companies who faced similar problems in the electricity sector have previously chosen. Enel has, however, publicly stated that they do not intend to sell the asset. Enel didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. Reporting by Leticia Fukuma, Writing by Isabel Teles and Editing by Aurora Ellis
Investor reactions to Trump's agreement to a two-week ceasefire.
U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that he and Iran had reached an agreement for a two-week ceasefire, less than 2 hours before the deadline he set for Tehran to reopen Strait of Hormuz. Otherwise, he said, it would be subject to widespread attacks?on civilian infrastructure.
The 'ceasefire' was seen as opening the door to a lasting peace, and the resumed export of Gulf oil and natural gas.
Here are some comments from analysts and investors:
ANDREW LILLEY IS THE CHIEF RATES STRATEGIST AT BARRENJOEY IN SYDNEY.
"We have a way to go to get back where we were when this started. Now the worry is that the markets are unsure about the extent to the which oil prices will return to $75.
"This little precipice, where oil is flowing and no one is in shortage, but it remains at an equilibrium price $90, is actually where you remove the risk of central banks cutting.
"It is a scenario that will result in permanent high yields, because we'll have damaged infrastructure for months and a high oil price that won't go down. This means that inflation will be higher."
GEORGE BOUBOURAS, HEAD OF RESEARCH, K2 ASSET MANAGEMENT, MELBOURNE:
Restocking the energy supply is key in the coming week, as the conflict could re-ignite quickly. It is less likely that a recession will occur, especially if oil, gas and fertiliser are available in the coming week. The markets are never complacent and are always looking through the conflict. They are also not complacent because they want to see if there is a resolution and that valuations will remain compelling over a year.
MARTIN WHETTON HEAD OF FINANCIAL MARKET STRATEGY WESTPAC SYDNEY
This is what always happens. Does this mean people will take on new risks? It doesn't.
"It'd have to be a lasting peace" (to change the situation). The people are not taking any risks. "This is just algos doing things."
BRIAN JACOBSEN CHIEF ECONOMIST ANNEXWEALTH MANAGEMENT MENOMONEE FALLS WISCONSIN
"President Trump?said that he had agreed to a ceasefire of two weeks. This is enough to keep the hope alive that not only will a civilization NOT be destroyed but oil could start flowing through Strait of Hormuz.
"Is it just throwing the can down the road, moving goal posts, or TACO Tuesday? Or whatever metaphor we want, only for tempers to flare and bombs to drop again? Who knows? "But it's enough to get a positive reaction from the markets for now." (Reporting from Tom Westbrook in Singapore and Ankur Banerjee; editing by Sumeet chatterjee.)
(source: Reuters)