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Andy Home: The nickel market in Indonesia plays the numbers game.
The nickel price has been on a rapid rise as investors bet that Indonesia, which is the world's biggest producer of battery metals, will slow down its explosive output growth. The London Metal Exchange (LME) 3-month metal has risen from a low of $14.235 per metric tonne in mid-December to a peak of $18,905 on January 14, a level last traded in 2022. Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources minister Bahlil lahadalia, in mid-December, triggered a nickel resurgence with his?promise? to cut production. An official from the Energy Ministry confirmed that this year, the annual mining permits for ore will be reduced to 250-260 millions wet tons from 379million tons in 2025. This is a big deal, given that Indonesia supplies 65% of the global nickel and has been the cause of the glut in the past two years. This is why the market reacted. There's much more to the headline figures than meets the eye. NUMBER-CRUNCHING First, Indonesian mining quotas refer to wet tons. Macquarie Bank analysts point out that the headline numbers are "difficult" to convert into actual nickel units because of the wide range of moisture content in ores. The moisture content of ores can reach up to 40%. The bank says that neither the operators nor the government report formally quotas and production levels. This makes it difficult to understand what's going on with Indonesia's huge nickel sector. The quota for last year was much higher than the actual production. According to FINI, the nickel smelter's association in Indonesia, last year's total ore demand was just 300 million wet tonnes. According to the World Bureau for Metal Statistics, imports from the Philippines reached 14 million tonnes in the first eleven months of 2025. The quota that has been proposed for this year will in fact?mean that production is cut, but not to the extent implied by "slashing". FINI predicts that the demand for ore by smelters will rise to 340 to 350 million tons in this year. This gap is significant and can only be partially filled by imports. Come back in June The FINI ore demand forecast shows you the amount of processing capacity that is still ramping-up in Indonesia. The government is faced with a difficult problem: How to limit ore production without harming existing smelters or those that are in the process or construction? Indonesian resource policies is aimed at creating greater value by moving the processing down the chain, from ore to intermediates to finished nickel. It won't help to deny new projects feed. Jakarta may have stopped approving new projects, but the smelter market is still growing rapidly. A mid-year review of how things are progressing can be used as a safety valve if tensions grow between ore production quotas and smelter demands. In other words, the headline annual mining permits number may change as the year progresses. Take back control Jakarta has no doubt about its intention to take more control over a sector that's grown too large too fast. The government has cracked down on illegal mining, and operators who violate environmental rules. In November, it stopped the approval of new smelters that produce intermediate products like nickel pig iron or matte. These are primarily used by the stainless steel sector and not the electric vehicle batteries. Reduced annual quota is another part of strategy, but don't expect Indonesian Nickel Juggernaut to shudder to a halt. It could take a while for this to happen and it is likely that the numbers will change again. Andy Home is an author and columnist. Andy Home is a columnist. You like this article? Check it out Open Interest (ROI) Your essential source for global financial news. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, Listen to the song Morning Bid daily podcast Spotify Or the . Subscribe to the podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Salamanca, Mexico: Armed attackers kill eleven at soccer field
On Sunday, the mayor of Salamanca in Mexico, Cesar Precio, posted on Facebook that armed attackers had?killed and injured 11 people at a soccer field following a match. However, the motive for this attack was not immediately known. Prieto said that a woman and a 'child' were injured in the "regrettable" and "cowardly" -attack on a social gathering in Loma de flores. He described the incident as a serious social breakdown. He added, "This incident adds to the wave of violence we are experiencing in Salamanca and throughout the state." "Unfortunately criminal groups are trying subjugate authorities which they won't achieve." The office of the Attorney General in the state Guanajuato (where Salamanca lies) has launched an investigation into the attack. In a press release, the office said it was working with local, state, and federal authorities to bolster security, protect the people, and identify the likely perpetrators. "Those who are responsible will be?found," Prieto said in his Facebook comments. Guanajuato, one of Mexico's most dangerous states. Reporting by Shivani Tana in Bengaluru, Editing by Tom Hogue & Clarence Fernandez
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Analysts say that gold has room to rise as geopolitics and cenbank purchases fuel gains.
Analysts predict that spot gold prices will continue to rise this year, after hitting a record high of $5,000 per ounce, due to mounting global tensions and strong demand from central banks and retail. As geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties roiled the markets, gold soared to $5,092.70. Safe-haven metal is up over 17% this year after rising 64% in 2025. According to the London Bullion Market Association’s annual precious metals survey, analysts expect gold prices to rise as high as $7150, and average $4,742 by 2026. Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 forecast gold price to $5,400, up from $4,900. According to Ross Norman, an independent analyst, the average for this year is $5,375, and a maximum of $6,400. Norman stated that "the only certainty in the present seems to be uncertainty. This is playing into gold's favor." TENSIONS GEOPOLITICAL Gold's recent rally was fuelled by geopolitical pressures. These ranged from?the U.S. and NATO friction over Greenland, tariff uncertainty, to growing doubts about the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Political uncertainty could increase with the mid-term U.S. elections. "Persistent concerns about overvalued equity markets will likely reinforce portfolio diversification flows to gold," said Philip Newman of Metals Focus. He added, "After reaching the $5,000/ounce mark, we expect further gains." PURCHASES FROM THE CENTRAL BANK ARE ROBUST This year, central-bank purchases of gold, which will be a major driver for prices in 2025 are expected to remain strong. Goldman Sachs predicts that gold purchases will average 60 metric tonnes per month, as central banks in emerging markets continue to diversify their reserves. This month, Governor Adam Glapinski stated that the central bank of Poland, which had 550 tons gold reserves at the end of 2025, wants to increase those reserves to 700 tonnes. These plans confirm the view that central banks are "looking to dedollarise" and gold is the best place to go. Norman said. China's central banks extended their gold buying spree in December for the 14th consecutive month. ETF INFLLOWS, RETAIL MANDA Prices are also supported by the inflows of investors into gold-backed exchange traded funds (ETFs), which hold bullion and provide investors with a large amount of investment. The markets expect more rate cuts from the United States this year. Gold that has no return on investment is an asset with a high opportunity cost. This opportunity cost decreases as interest rates fall. "If the Fed continues to lower rates in 2026 the demand for gold will rise," said Chris Mancini. World Gold Council data shows that gold ETFs will see record inflows of $89 billion in 2025. This is largely due to North American funds. In terms of?tonnage, inflows reached 801 metric tonnes, their highest level since 2020. The demand for gold jewellery has declined due to high prices. This is partly offset by the strong appetite for small bars and coin in important markets like India. Analysts said that bar-and-coin purchases are also visible in Europe. However, some investors are making profits. Gold's simplicity is appealing to many investors, says?Frederic Panizzutti. He is the global head of sales for Numismatica Genvensis which deals in precious metals coins. He said: "You do not need to analyze a balance sheet, assess credit risks or worry about country or sovereign risks." The only thing you have to worry about with gold is its price. As geopolitics, geoeconomics and other factors have become more complex, simplicity has become "more attractive". What's Next for Gold? Analysts believe that several factors, such as a reversal in expectations of a rate cut in the United States, margin calls for equities and an easing in concerns over Fed independence, could cause a correction. Most expect that any pullback will be short-lived, and used as an opportunity to buy. Newman said that a meaningful and sustained drop in gold would be impossible without a return to more stable geopolitical and economic conditions.
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What drives the gold market and how investors buy it?
On Monday, gold reached a new record of $5,000 per ounce. This continued a historic rally in which investors have piled into the safe-haven investment amid increasing geopolitical tensions. Bullion's value will increase by 64% in 2025. This is the biggest annual gain since 1979. Its rise was driven by a combination of demand for safe-havens, bets made on U.S. interest rate cuts, central bank buying, dedollarisation trends, and inflows to exchange-traded funds. It is up 18% this year. Here are some tips on how to invest in gold. SPOT MARKET Big banks are usually the gold buyers for large investors and buyers. The spot market is determined by the real-time dynamics of supply and demand. London is the hub of the spot gold market. The London Bullion Market Association sets standards for gold trading, while providing a framework to facilitate over-the counter trades between banks, dealers and institutions. China, India and the Middle East are also major gold trading centres. Futures Market Investors can also get exposure to gold through futures exchanges. This is where people purchase or sell a commodity at a set price for a future date. COMEX is part of the New York Mercantile exchange and the gold futures market with the highest trading volume. Shanghai Futures Exchange is China's largest commodities exchange and offers gold futures. Tokyo Commodity Exchange (also known as TOCOM) is another major player in the Asian Gold Market. EXCHANGE-TRADED COMMODITIES Exchange-traded product or exchange-traded fund securities are backed by metal. This allows people to get exposure to the gold price without having to take delivery of metal. World Gold Council data shows that global gold ETFs will see record inflows by 2025, with North American funds leading the way. Inflows jumped to $89 billion annually. BARRES AND COINS Consumers can purchase 'gold' from dealers who sell bars and coins online or in stores. Gold bars and gold coins are two effective ways to invest in physical gold. Due to the surge in spot prices, investors have shifted their focus from jewellery to bars and coins. What drives the market? : Investor Interest and Market Sentiment The rising interest of investment funds has been one of the major factors behind bullion price movements in recent years. Market trends, news, and global events have all fueled speculative gold buying or selling. FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE Gold is an excellent hedge against the volatility of currency markets. Gold has historically moved opposite to the U.S. Dollar, as a weakening dollar makes gold priced in dollars cheaper for holders other currencies. MONETARY POLICY & POLITICAL TENSE Precious metals are widely regarded as a safe haven in times of uncertainty. The U.S. trade tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump have sparked an 'international trade war' and rattled currency markets over the past year. Trump's capture and subsequent aggressive statements regarding Greenland acquisition have increased volatility since 2026. The global central banks' policies also affect gold's trajectory. Gold is less expensive to hold when interest rates are lower, because it does not pay interest. CENTRAL BANK GLOBAL GOLD RESERVES Gold is held in reserves by central banks, and the demand for gold from this sector in recent years has been robust due to macroeconomic and political uncertainties. In its annual survey conducted in June, the World Gold Council stated that "more central banks intend to increase their gold reserves in the next year despite rising prices." World Gold Council data shows that net central bank purchases for November totaled 45 metric tonnes. This brings the figure of the first 11 months of 2025 up to 297 tons. China continued to add gold to its reserves. Its holdings reached 74.15 millions troy ounces by the end of the month, up from 74.12 in the month before. This was the 14th consecutive month that it had increased its purchasing spree. Adam Glapinski, the Governor of Poland's Central Bank, said that the bank aims to increase its gold reserves from 550 tons to 700 tons by 2025. (Compiled by Bangalore Commodities and Energy Team, edited by Peter Graff and Jan Harvey and Himani Sakar)
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Gold exceeds $5,000; yen gains on fears of intervention
Gold surged above $5,000 per ounce?Monday. This was boosted by safety flows amid dollar strength following a turbulent last week, where investors were rattled by tensions regarding Greenland and Iran, while markets remained on edge after violent spikes of the yen. After sharp spikes in the yen on Friday, speculation about possible intervention grew. Sources say that the New York Federal Reserve checked rates on Friday. This raises the possibility of a joint U.S. and Japanese intervention to stop the currency's decline. The market is inclined to short the yen, but with the possibility of coordination it is no longer a one-way wager," said Prashant Nnewnaha senior rates strategist for TD Securities Singapore. The dollar fell as the prospect of a joint intervention to help the yen lifted other currencies. As traders awaited Federal Reserve's policy announcement later in the week, the Nikkei fell about 2%. S&P futures also dropped 0.25%. European futures were down 0.27%. Last week, U.S. president Donald Trump brought temporary relief to the markets by retracting tariff threats and minimizing the possibility of a forceful response against Greenland. Further sanctions against Iran have exacerbated market concerns. The increased pressure from the United States against Iran has pushed oil prices up and lifted gold, a safe haven asset, to new highs. Silver and other precious metals have been gaining in value this year due to a weaker dollar. INTERVENTION CHATTER KEEPS YEN ALFT Sources told us about the rate checks that took place on Friday. This has traders on edge, as an intervention could happen at any moment. Sanae Takaichi, the Japanese prime minister, said that her government would take all necessary measures to combat speculative moves on the market. Carlos Casanova is a senior Asia economist with UBP. He said that the mere anticipation of a potential intervention can, by itself, lead to monetary strengthening. The Japanese yen will likely stabilise a little, but catalysts for significant appreciation are limited. Long-term yields should continue to be under pressure due to their elevated levels. Last week, a steep decline in the Japanese bond market had brought to light Takaichi’s fiscal expansion. She then called for a snap election on February 8, which is now due. Investors remain nervous despite a slight calm in the bond market. On Monday, the yen rose against all other currencies. It was a small step away from its record lows against the Euro and Swiss Franc as well as multi-decade lows versus sterling. Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist for Saxo. He said that the warning in the style of a rate-check could reset the market's positioning and remind it there is a line between 159-160. "With the dollar looking softer, it is a better time for Japan to take a stand against the yen's weakness. "Intervention works best when it goes with the wider USD tide and not against it." The dollar index (which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals) fell up to 0.2%, reaching a low of 96.996 - a level not seen in four months - after falling by 0.8% on Friday, its largest one-day decline since August. This week, investors will be focused on the Fed. At a meeting that is overshadowed with a criminal investigation by the Trump administration into Fed Chair Jerome Powell whose term ends this May, it's expected that the central bank will hold rates steady. Oil prices in commodities were little changed on Saturday after rising by about 3% Friday. Traders weighed the impact of Trump's pressure on Iran to increase sanctions on vessels transporting its oil. Brent crude futures remained flat at $65.91 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $61.1. (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong in Singapore)
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Gold reaches record-high of $5,000 on the safe-haven rush
On Monday, gold surged above $5,000 per ounce in a new record. This continued a historic rally that saw investors pile?into this safe-haven investment amid increasing geopolitical uncertainty. Gold spot rose by 1.98%, to $5,081.18 an ounce, at 0323 GMT. It had previously touched $5,092.71. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery gained 2.01%, reaching $5,079.30 an ounce. Metal prices soared by 64% between 2025 and 2040, thanks to sustained demand for safe havens, a monetary policy ease in the United States, strong central bank purchases - China extended its gold buying spree in December for a 14th month - as well as record inflows in exchange-traded fund. Prices have risen by more than 17% in the past year. According to Kyle Rodda of Capital.com, the latest catalyst is "effectively?this crisis in confidence in the U.S. government and U.S. asset, which was set off last week by some of the Trump administration's erratic decisions". On Wednesday, U.S. president Donald Trump abruptly backtracked from his?threats of imposing tariffs on European Allies as leverage for seizing Greenland. He said over the weekend that he would impose 100% tariffs on Canada if they?fulfilled a trade agreement with China. In an apparent 'effort' to get French President Emmanuel Macron to join his Board of Peace initiative, he has threatened to impose 200% tariffs on French wines and champagnes. Some observers worry that the board will undermine the United Nations as the primary global platform for conflict settlement, even though Trump says it will work alongside the U.N. Rodda added, "This Trump administration caused a permanent disruption in the way that things are done. So now everyone is kind of running towards gold as the only option." A rising yen has dragged down the dollar on Monday morning, as markets were on high alert for a possible intervention by the Federal Reserve. Investors have also been reducing their dollar positions in anticipation of the meeting this week. Gold priced in greenbacks is more affordable to holders of currencies other than the dollar. "We expect more upside (for gold)." "Our?current prediction suggests that prices will reach a peak of around $5,500 by the end of this year," stated Philip Newman, Director at Metals Focus. Newman said that periodic pullbacks will occur as investors take their profits. However, we expect each correction to last a short time and be met with strong buyer interest. After hitting a new record, spot?silver rose 5.79% to $108.91 an ounce. Spot platinum rose by 3.77%, to $2.871.40 an ounce. It had previously reached a session high of $2.891.6. Meanwhile, spot palladium was up 3.2%, to $2.075.30, which is a three-year high. Silver broke through the $100 barrier for the first-time on Friday. This follows a 147% increase in the previous year, as retail investor flows and momentum-driven purchases compounded an extended period of tightness on the physical metal markets.
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Iron ore prices fall amid volatile geopolitical environment
Iron ore futures dipped as traders were cautious in the face of a tepid global political backdrop. However, recovering hot metal production and increasing inventories indicate that prices have more room to grow. As of 0312 GMT, the most-traded contract for May iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), traded 0.51% higher at 788 Yuan ($113.29). The benchmark iron ore for February on the Singapore Exchange fell by 0.93% to $103.6 tonne. A?trader with knowledge of the issue said that traders are generally cautious in a geopolitical climate where prices for Singapore iron ore remain below $100 per ton. A Mysteel report published on January 26 said that prices would remain low due to the recovering hot metal production and Chinese Lunar New Year stocking. The report stated that iron ore inventories at steel mills were still lower than the same period of 'previous years. BHP Group, world's No. BHP Group, the world's No. Two traders reported that the stocks of BHP's Jimblebar Fines in major Chinese ports had risen 360% since late September, to 8.1 millions tons on January 13. Sources claim that Chinese steelmakers cannot take delivery of JMBF cargoes at ports. Steelhome's data from January 23 shows that iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports increased by 1.2% in a week. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, were mixed on the DCE. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have firmed. The price of rebar increased by 0.38%. Hot-rolled coils gained 0.27%. Wire rods hardened 0.89%. Stainless steel rose 0.38%. ($1 = 6.9554 Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich; Ruth Chai)
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Supply concerns in the US temper winter production disruptions
Prices of oil were not much different on Monday, after rising more than 2% the previous session. Supply concerns held back benchmarks despite disruptions to production in major U.S. oil-producing regions. Brent crude futures dropped 7 cents or 0.1% to $65.81 per barrel at 0221 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $61.01 per barrel, down by 6 cents or 0.1%. Both benchmarks closed Friday at their highest levels since January 14, with weekly gains of 2.7%. In the next few days, a U.S. aircraft carrier strike force and other assets will arrive in the Middle East. "Oil prices have been tickled by signs of production disruptions occurring in the U.S. this 'week, along with persistent geopolitical risks against the notion that there will be an oversupply of 2026," stated Priyanka Sackdeva, Senior Market Analyst at Phillip Nova Pte Ltd. JPMorgan analysts wrote in a Monday note that the U.S. has lost crude production of 250,000 barrels a day due to the harsh weather. This includes declines in Bakken oil fields in Oklahoma and Texas. Winter storm Fern has hit the U.S. Coast, forcing shutdowns in major oil and natural gas-producing regions, and adding stress on the power grid, she said. She added that the oil markets have experienced a mild increase as outages tighten the physical flow. Analysts say that traders are also on the alert for?geopolitical risk', given that tensions between Iran and the U.S. keep investors on edge. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that President Trump's announcement of a U.S. armada heading toward Iran has re-ignited fears about supply disruption. This has added a premium to crude oil prices and boosted risk aversion today. A senior Iranian official stated on Friday that Iran would consider any attack as "an all-out battle against us." Separately the Caspian Pipeline Consortium of Kazakhstan reported that it had returned to full loading capacity on its terminal at the Black Sea Coast on Sunday, after completing maintenance on one?of three moorings points. Sachdeva, a Phillip Nova representative, said that traders are more concerned with the sustainability of the surplus than they are about headlines. The overall oil market still indicates soft structural fundamentals for 2026, unless OPEC+ and major producers announce meaningful reductions. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus; Sudarshan Varadan and Florence Tan)
Morning bid Europe-Yen's wild ride makes markets nervous
Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets
Investors are unsure when and how the authorities may intervene.
After Friday's volatile surge, the yen has risen to a 4-month high of US$153.81 from as low a USD159.23.
On Friday, sources said that the New York Federal Reserve had contacted traders in order to check rates. This is often a precursor of an actual intervention. The markets have also been focused on the U.S. cooperation and have been "generally selling" the dollar during Asian hours.
This kind of big yen movement without an actual intervention speaks to investor skepticism and a relatively light position. Traders may be unwinding their short yen positions so as not to get in the way of the authorities stepping into the market.
On Monday, top Japanese officials said they were in close coordination with the United States regarding?foreign exchange.
The move of the yen has cast a shadow over the global markets. It has dragged the U.S. Dollar lower, and pushed some struggling Asian currencies, such as the South Korean won, to higher levels. The Nikkei fell about 2% as a result of the strong yen.
Gold and silver both surged to new record highs as a result of the soft dollar.
The markets are also anticipating a Federal Reserve meeting later this week, where the central banks is expected to remain steadfast on interest rates. However, much of the focus will be placed on concerns about central bank independence.
The Justice Department has threatened a criminal probe against Powell in relation to the renovations of the Fed's newest headquarters.
Trump's effort to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook?also awaits an Supreme Court hearing.
Investors will be interested in the earnings of Ryanair, as they come amid a social media feud between Elon Musk's and Michael O'Leary's Ryanair boss.
Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact
Economic events in Germany: lfo survey results for January
(source: Reuters)