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Dollar steady, stocks up as ceasefire boosts confidence

Dollar steady, stocks up as ceasefire boosts confidence

On Wednesday, stocks rose and crude oil remained close to multi-week lows as investors viewed a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran and reinvested in riskier assets. They also brushed aside any immediate concerns about an energy crisis.

Lower oil prices lowered the inflation risk for bonds.

Israel has said it will take strong action against Iranian missile attacks that followed after U.S. president Donald Trump declared an end to hostilities.

According to an initial U.S. Intelligence Assessment, the U.S. airstrikes didn't destroy Iran's nucleonic capability, but only pushed it back a few months. This contradicts Trump's previous comments that Iran’s nuclear program had been "obliterated".

Early trade saw the Stoxx 600 index in Europe rise 0.2%, while S&P futures and Nasdaq Futures were flat.

The Nikkei soared 0.4% in Japan, while the Hang Seng rose 1.3% in Hong Kong, and blue chips on mainland China gained 1.44% to close at their highest levels since March 20.

The MSCI global stock index remained stable after hitting a new record overnight.

Analysts at Frankfurt's Metzler stated that "if the still-tense Middle East situation continues to calm, then the stock markets may have a pleasant month of July in front of them in line with the usual seasonal pattern."

This would lead to new highs for the U.S. and could be further fueled by renewed expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates.

The latest U.S. macroeconomic statistics, including consumer confidence data, released over night suggest that the economy may have grown slower than expected in the largest oil-consuming country. This has boosted expectations for Federal Reserve rate reductions this year.

Brent crude rose by 2%, to $68.43 a barrel. This is a slight rebound after a drop of up to $14.58 in the two previous sessions. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was up to $65.60 a barrel.

In a client note, analysts at ING stated that "while concerns regarding Middle Eastern supplies have diminished, they haven't entirely disappeared and there is still a strong demand for immediate supply."

The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury bond was the lowest since May 8, at 3.7848%.

The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1594. This is still near the overnight high, $1.1641, which has not been seen since October 20,21. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index, which measures currency against six other major counterparts was only marginally higher at 98.079.

Gold prices rose slightly to $3,328 an ounce.

Investors continue to be most concerned about U.S. money policy, aside from geopolitics.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated on Tuesday that increased tariffs may begin to raise inflation this summer. This period will be crucial for the U.S. Central Bank when considering rate cuts.

According to CME FedWatch, the markets continue to price in an approximate 19% chance of the Fed cutting rates by a quarter-point in July.

(source: Reuters)