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Union and Marathon meet as deadline for US refineries' strike looms
The United Steelworkers union and Marathon Petroleum continue to negotiate on Saturday. This is just hours before a possible strike deadline at several U.S. refineries or?chemical plants. The union rejected an offer made by Marathon, who is the chief negotiator of 26 U.S. chemical and refinery companies, including Exxon Mobil and Valero Energy. According to sources who were familiar with the negotiations, the offer included a 13% wage increase over a 4-year contract. Jamal Kheiry, Marathon's spokesperson, said that "MPC is continuing to meet with USW representatives." "We're committed to negotiating in good faith, and working towards a mutually satisfying agreement," said Marathon spokesperson Jamal Kheiry. USW released a statement saying that "the union will continue to bargain with Marathon beyond contract expiration? for a national agreement covering all workers represented by the USW National Oil Bargaining Program". Marathon's proposal would have seen pay increases of 3% each in the first two year and 3.5% each in the last two. Sources said that the USW and the USW's 30,000 oil workers are negotiating over the cost of living, healthcare costs, and standards for artificial intelligence in the plants. USW also wants to see tougher safety regulations, but sources say that this is not likely to happen at Marathon. "Marathon, as a company, thinks that our industry is overpaid," stated one of the sources who asked to remain anonymous because they weren't authorized to speak in public. "They don't say much about economics. To be honest, our proposal is mainly about AI. They're not doing it in a positive way. The current four-year agreement expires on Sunday at 12:01 am, but this does not automatically mean that a strike would begin at that time. During past negotiations, the union granted rolling extensions of 24 hours to reach an agreement beyond expiration. Only in plants where a union has authorized a strike will workers walk off the job. The USW called out 5,200 USW workers at 11 refineries in the United States, which were part of the previous nationwide strike. The refineries continued to operate with temporary replacement employees. Negotiations between the USW & Marathon concern a national agreement pattern that will set wages for hourly union workers as well as healthcare costs, safety agreements, and other matters. After completing their probationary periods, inside refinery operators earn about $50 per hour. To create the contract, you combine the national agreement with site-specific agreements. The company and workers settled local issues at Marathon's biggest refinery on Friday, the 631,000-barrel-per-day Galveston Refinery. (Reporting and Additional Reporting by DishaMishra. Editing by Nathan Crooks, Nik Williams and Nathan Crooks)
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Union and Marathon meet as deadline for US refineries' strike looms
The United Steelworkers union and Marathon Petroleum continue to negotiate on Saturday just hours before a possible strike deadline at several U.S. chemical and refineries plants. The union rejected an offer made by Marathon, who is the chief negotiator of 26 U.S. chemical and refinery companies, including Exxon Mobil and Valero Energy. According to sources who were familiar with the negotiations, the offer included a 13% wage increase over a 4-year contract. Marathon spokesperson Jamal Kheiry said that "MPC is continuing to meet with USW representatives." "We are committed in working towards a mutually satisfying agreement and bargaining with good faith." USW spokesperson stated that the union had no immediate comment regarding negotiations. Marathon's proposed pay increase would have been 3% for each of first two years and 3.5% for each of final two. Sources said that the USW and the oil industry workers, who are represented by the USW in these talks, will be discussing the cost of living, healthcare costs, and the standards of use of artificial intelligence at the plants. USW also wants to see tougher safety regulations, but sources say that this is not likely to happen for Marathon. "Marathon, as a company, thinks that our industry is overpaid," stated one of the sources who asked to remain anonymous because they weren't authorized to speak in public. "They don't say much about economics. To be honest, our proposal is dominated by AI. They're not doing it well. The current four-year agreement expires on Sunday at 12:01 am, but this does not automatically mean that a strike would begin. In previous?negotiations the union granted rolling contract extensions of 24 hours to reach an agreement beyond expiration. Only in plants where the union has authorized a strike will workers walk off their jobs. The USW announced that it would be calling out 5,200 USW workers at 11 refineries in the United States, which employed USW members. The refineries continued to operate with temporary replacement employees. Negotiations between the USW, Marathon and other unions are aimed at a national agreement pattern that will set wages for hourly workers in the union, healthcare costs, safety agreements and more. After completing their probation period, inside refinery operators earn about $50 per hour. To create the contract, you combine the national agreement with site-specific agreements. The company and workers settled local issues at Marathon's biggest refinery on Friday, the 631,000 barrels per day Galveston Bay. (Reporting and editing by Nathan Crooks, Nia Williams, and Erwin Seba)
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Morocco deploys its army to assist thousands of flood victims
State TV reported that Morocco had deployed army units to assist with the?evacuation of thousands of people following?floods caused by torrential rainfall?and?rising river levels?that hit parts of Morocco's northwest. A national flood monitoring committee reported that weeks of heavy rain, coupled with the release of water from a dam near the city, had increased the?water level in the Loukous River, and inundated several?neighbourhoods. The city of Ksar Kbir is located about 190 km north of Rabat. Official media reported that more than 20,000 people were moved into shelters and camps as of?Saturday. As the waters receded, authorities set up temporary barriers and sandbags in areas prone to flooding. As a precaution, Ksar Kbir schools have been closed until the 7th of February. The Sebou River rose to a dangerous level in the province of Sidi Kacem. Authorities increased their vigilance. The abundance of rain ended a seven-year dry spell that prompted the country to invest heavily in desalination plants. According to official statistics, the average rate of dam filling has increased to 60%. Several major reservoirs have reached their full capacity. In the city of Safi south of Rabat, there were 37 deaths in a flash flood last month. (Editing by Timothy Heritage).
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Sky News reports that Thames Water is close to a 16 billion-pound deal with lenders.
Sky News reported that Britain's Thames Water was getting closer to a deal worth 16 billion pounds ($22 billion), which would prevent the ailing "utility" from being temporarily taken over by the public. The report stated that a group of creditors who hold 13 billion pounds out of Thames Water’s 20 billion pound total debt are aiming to reach an agreement in principle with the regulator Ofwat as well as the company before the middle of the next month. Thames Water stated in an email that it was working with stakeholders on a market-led recapitalisation. They added that they were hopeful to reach an agreement. The company has 16 million clients and has been the center of a scandal in Britain where it was fined over 100 million pounds because of sewage spills. The company's debt load has also brought it to the brink of collapse. Ofwat said it continues to engage with the London & Valley Water Investor group and is reviewing their proposals to assess if they would improve the company’s operations?and its finances. London & Valley Water, a group of 15 creditors, including Aberdeen Investments and Elliott Management as well as PIMCO, Silver Point Capital, have committed to keep their ownership stakes in the struggling utility through 2030, under a rescue plan. According to the report, under the proposal, lenders could receive a 30% haircut on their Class A debt, compared to the 25% announced in October. The report stated that more than 13 billion pounds in existing value will be written off once a final deal is presented to investors. These include Assured Guaranty, Invesco, Elliott Management, Silver Point Capital, and Farallon Capital Management. The report said that creditors would be given a minimum of 10% of the equity in the recapitalised firm. The report stated that an outline agreement could be reached "as soon as next week", with terms being submitted to Downing Street for review in the following weeks. Thames Water was able to secure court approval last year for a 3-billion-pound debt lifeline. This prevented a possible collapse and state rescue. As soon as the terms of a deal with the government were agreed, Britain's largest water provider began to take steps to secure court dates, and to proceed with a plan for recapitalisation led by senior lenders.
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France tightens rules on infant milk after recalls
The French farm ministry announced on Saturday that it had lowered the safety level for cereulide in infant formula. This was done to 'enhance protections' after several large groups issued worldwide recalls due to contamination concerns. The ingredient Cereulide can cause nausea and vomiting. It was detected in ingredients supplied by a Chinese factory that supplies a number of formula manufacturers including Nestle Danone and Lactalis. This triggered?recalls' in dozens countries, raising concern among parents. The ministry released a statement saying that the new threshold will be 0.014 micrograms cereulide per kilogram of body mass, as opposed to 0.03 micrograms currently. The French?move is a result of a European Union Meeting on the 28th January and in line with updated guidelines from the European Food Safety Authority, which will be released Monday. It added that the lower threshold would likely lead to more withdrawals in France over the next few days. These recalls show how an ingredient that is compromised can cause a market panic despite strict regulation. On January 23, French investigators announced that they were investigating whether there was a connection between the deaths of two infants, and the recalls of formula products. Foodwatch, a consumer group, announced on Thursday that it filed a criminal complaint against eight companies for failing to notify the public about contaminated infant formula. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger; Sybille de la Hamaide)
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US Lower 48 crude production down 379,900 bpd on storms in January
According to Rystad consultancy, U.S. crude production is expected to drop by 379,000 barrels a day in the lower 48 for 'the month of January.' This is because operators are still restoring output after a storm last weekend knocked down up to 2,000,000 bpd. The Energy Information Administration announced this month that U.S. crude production from the lower 48 states would total 11,24 million bpd in January. This puts current 'outages' at about 3.4% of the output. According to Rystad, the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico is expected to take a disproportionate share of outages for January, with a decline of 237,000 bpd. State regulators announced that all of North Dakota's oil production had been restored to normal on Friday. North Dakota's Industrial Commission, which collects monthly data, shows that the state produced 1.189 million barrels of oil per day in November. Oil prices fell on Friday, after surging 3% on Thursday to a five month high. This was due to growing concerns that the U.S. could attack Iran and disrupt global supply. Dennis Kissler is senior vice president for trading at BOK. He said that global supplies are plentiful, but the demand has been stronger than expected. The latest cold snap, however, has affected U.S. manufacturing. (Reporting from Georgina McCartney, Houston; Editing done by Lisa Shumaker and David Gregorio.)
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Official: More than 200 dead in collapse of coltan mine in East Congo
Lumumba Muyisa told reporters on Friday that more than 200 people died this week after a mine collapse in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. The mine is in the Rubaya province. Rubaya is the source of around 15% of all coltan in the world. This is then processed into tantalum - a heat resistant metal highly sought after by manufacturers of gas turbines, mobile phones, and computers. Since 2024, the AFC/M23 rebel group has controlled the site where locals dig by hand for just a few dollars a day. As of Friday evening, the exact toll had not been determined. More than 200 people, including children, miners and market women, were affected by this landslide. Muyisa stated that some people were rescued in time but have suffered serious injuries. He added that around 20 people were receiving treatment in hospitals. We are now in the rainy period. The ground is very fragile. The ground gave way while the victims were inside the hole. A governor's adviser said that the confirmed death toll was at least 227. He was not authorised to speak with the media, so he spoke under condition of anonymity. The United Nations claims that AFC/M23 plunders Rubaya’s wealth to?fund their insurgency. This is backed by the neighboring government of?Rwanda. Kigali, however, denies this allegation. The heavily-armed, rebels, who have stated their aim to overthrow Kinshasa's government and ensure the safety for the Congolese Tutsi minority, captured more mineral-rich terrain in eastern Congo last year during a lightning-fast advance. Reporting by Congo Newsroom; Additional reporting and writing by Clement Bonnerot, Editing by Daniel Wallis
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Sources say that the US is pitching Venezuelan crude oil to India, as Russia's oil imports are slowing.
Three sources with knowledge of the situation said that the United States has informed Delhi it may resume its purchases to replace Russian?oil imports. India promised to cut its Russian crude oil purchases following Washington's tariff hikes on this activity. India is also on track to reduce its Russian oil imports in the next few months by several hundred thousands barrels per day, according to sources who declined to identify themselves. In March 2025, President Donald Trump imposed tariffs of 25% on countries that bought Venezuelan oil, including India. His administration also stepped up its campaign against Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro who was captured by U.S. troops on January 3. Washington began to direct the Caracas Government a few years ago and plans to control Venezuela’s oil industry for an indefinite period of time. Washington is also trying to reduce Russian oil revenue?that funds the war in Ukraine. The sources didn't provide any details on whether Venezuelan oil will be sold by Vitol, Trafigura, or directly by Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA. The White House as well as the U.S. Treasury Department refused to comment. The Indian oil minister and foreign ministry have not responded to emails asking for comment. India has become a major purchaser of Russian oil since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine by Russia triggered Western sanctions which drove its price down. Last week, Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said that India is diversifying their crude sources as Russian oil imports decline. Two sources claim that India is planning to reduce its Russian oil imports below 1 million barrels per a day in the near future. One of these two sources stated that they are expected to drop to about 1 million bpd by February, and to 800,000 bpd by March. The second source said that these imports will eventually decline to around 500,000-600,000. This would help the country to seal a deal with the United States. In August, U.S. tariffs against Indian goods reached a record high of 50%. Washington also added another 25% to the?tariff on purchases of Russian oil. Indian refiners were forced to import more oil from other countries due to the Western sanctions. Trade sources revealed that India's Russian imports in December fell to their lowest level for two years, bringing OPEC share of Indian imports up by a?11-month. Indian refiners are buying more oil in Middle Eastern, African, and South American countries. This is to compensate for the drop in Russian oil exports. Hindustan Petroleum Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals, a state-owned company, and private refiners HPCL and Mittal Energy Ltd. have stopped purchasing Russian oil. Reliance Industries will begin buying up to 150,000 barrels per day of Russian oil in February, according to a source within the company. Officials at the India Energy Week this week stated that Indian Oil Corp. and Bharat Petrol Corp. have also slowed their purchases of Russian crude oil. (Reporting and editing by Richard Valdmanis, Cynthia Osterman, and Nidhi verma)
Investors rush to safe havens as oil prices spike after US bombs Iran's nuclear sites
Investors said that a U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear sites could trigger a knee-jerk response in global markets upon their reopening, sending oil costs higher and triggering an exodus to safety. They were assessing how this latest escalation would affect the global economy.
The attack announced by Donald Trump via the social media website Truth Social deepens U.S. participation in the Middle East conflict. Investors were considering a variety of market scenarios as they headed into the weekend. They expected that the U.S. involvement would cause a selloff of equities, and possibly a bid for the dollar or other safe-haven investments when trading began. However, they also stated that there was still a lot of uncertainty regarding the outcome of the conflict.
Trump described the attack as "successful", but few details were available. He was scheduled to speak later Saturday.
Mark Spindel is the chief investment officer of Potomac River Capital. He said, "I believe that markets will be initially alarmed and that oil will open higher."
"We haven't done any damage assessment yet and it will take time. We're still engaged, even though he described it as "done". What's next? Spindel said. "I believe the uncertainty will blanket the markets as Americans are now exposed everywhere. He added that it would increase volatility and uncertainty, especially in the oil market.
Spindel said, however, that there is still time to digest this news before the markets open. He also said that he would be making arrangements to speak to other participants in the market.
OIL PRICES AND INFLATION
The markets are most concerned about the impact that the Middle East developments could have on the oil price and, therefore, on inflation. An increase in inflation may dampen consumer confidence, and reduce the likelihood of interest rate reductions.
Jack Ablin is the chief investment officer at Cresset Capital. He said, "This creates a new and complex layer of risk to which we will have to pay attention." This will have a direct impact on the energy prices, and possibly on inflation.
The S&P 500 is little changed after an initial decline when Israel attacked Iran on June 13th.
Analysts at Oxford Economics had modeled three scenarios before the U.S. attack Saturday. These included a deescalation of conflict, a shutdown of Iranian oil production, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. "Each scenario has an increasing impact on global oil prices."
Oxford stated in the note that the worst case scenario would see global oil prices rise to $130 per barrel by the end this year. This would cause U.S. inflation to reach 6%. The note was published prior to the U.S. strike. "Although a price shock will inevitably reduce consumer spending due to the impact on real incomes. However, the magnitude of the increase in inflation, and the concerns over the possibility of second-round effects, are likely to ruin any chances of rate reductions in the U.S. for this year," Oxford wrote in the report. Jamie Cox of Harris Financial Group said that oil prices were likely to spike after the announcement. Cox, however, said that he expects prices to level out in a couple of days because the attacks may lead Iran to look for a peace agreement with Israel and the United States.
Cox stated that "with this demonstration of strength and the total destruction of its nuclear capability, they have lost all their leverage and are likely to hit the escape button for a peace agreement." Economists warn a sudden rise in oil costs could harm a global economy already stressed by Trump's tariffs.
History suggests that any pullbacks in equity prices could be temporary. In the past, when Middle East tensions reached a boiling point, such as the 2003 Iraq invasion or the 2019 attacks against Saudi oil facilities the stocks first lagged but quickly recovered and traded higher in the following months.
According to Wedbush Securities' and CapIQ Pro's data, the S&P500 averaged a 0.3% drop in the three weeks immediately following conflict. However, it was 2.3% higher two months later.
DOLLAR WORSE
A escalation of the conflict could have mixed consequences for the U.S. Dollar, which has fallen this year amid concerns over the diminished U.S. exceptionalalism.
Analysts said that if the United States directly engages in the Iran-Israel conflict, the dollar may initially benefit from an increase in safety bid.
"Are we seeing a flight towards safety?" Steve Sosnick is the chief market strategist of IBKR, Greenwich in Connecticut. It's difficult to imagine that stocks will not respond negatively, but the question is by how much. It depends on Iranian reactions and whether oil prices spike."
(source: Reuters)