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Investors rush to safe havens as oil prices spike after US bombs Iran's nuclear sites

Investors said that a U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear sites could trigger a knee-jerk response in global markets upon their reopening, sending oil costs higher and triggering an exodus to safety. They were assessing how this latest escalation would affect the global economy.

The attack announced by Donald Trump via the social media website Truth Social deepens U.S. participation in the Middle East conflict. Investors were considering a variety of market scenarios as they headed into the weekend. They expected that the U.S. involvement would cause a selloff of equities, and possibly a bid for the dollar or other safe-haven investments when trading began. However, they also stated that there was still a lot of uncertainty regarding the outcome of the conflict.

Trump described the attack as "successful", but few details were available. He was scheduled to speak later Saturday.

Mark Spindel is the chief investment officer of Potomac River Capital. He said, "I believe that markets will be initially alarmed and that oil will open higher."

"We haven't done any damage assessment yet and it will take time. We're still engaged, even though he described it as "done". What's next? Spindel said. "I believe the uncertainty will blanket the markets as Americans are now exposed everywhere. He added that it would increase volatility and uncertainty, especially in the oil market.

Spindel said, however, that there is still time to digest this news before the markets open. He also said that he would be making arrangements to speak to other participants in the market.

OIL PRICES AND INFLATION

The markets are most concerned about the impact that the Middle East developments could have on the oil price and, therefore, on inflation. An increase in inflation may dampen consumer confidence, and reduce the likelihood of interest rate reductions.

Jack Ablin is the chief investment officer at Cresset Capital. He said, "This creates a new and complex layer of risk to which we will have to pay attention." This will have a direct impact on the energy prices, and possibly on inflation.

The S&P 500 is little changed after an initial decline when Israel attacked Iran on June 13th.

Analysts at Oxford Economics had modeled three scenarios before the U.S. attack Saturday. These included a deescalation of conflict, a shutdown of Iranian oil production, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. "Each scenario has an increasing impact on global oil prices."

Oxford stated in the note that the worst case scenario would see global oil prices rise to $130 per barrel by the end this year. This would cause U.S. inflation to reach 6%. The note was published prior to the U.S. strike. "Although a price shock will inevitably reduce consumer spending due to the impact on real incomes. However, the magnitude of the increase in inflation, and the concerns over the possibility of second-round effects, are likely to ruin any chances of rate reductions in the U.S. for this year," Oxford wrote in the report. Jamie Cox of Harris Financial Group said that oil prices were likely to spike after the announcement. Cox, however, said that he expects prices to level out in a couple of days because the attacks may lead Iran to look for a peace agreement with Israel and the United States.

Cox stated that "with this demonstration of strength and the total destruction of its nuclear capability, they have lost all their leverage and are likely to hit the escape button for a peace agreement." Economists warn a sudden rise in oil costs could harm a global economy already stressed by Trump's tariffs.

History suggests that any pullbacks in equity prices could be temporary. In the past, when Middle East tensions reached a boiling point, such as the 2003 Iraq invasion or the 2019 attacks against Saudi oil facilities the stocks first lagged but quickly recovered and traded higher in the following months.

According to Wedbush Securities' and CapIQ Pro's data, the S&P500 averaged a 0.3% drop in the three weeks immediately following conflict. However, it was 2.3% higher two months later.

DOLLAR WORSE

A escalation of the conflict could have mixed consequences for the U.S. Dollar, which has fallen this year amid concerns over the diminished U.S. exceptionalalism.

Analysts said that if the United States directly engages in the Iran-Israel conflict, the dollar may initially benefit from an increase in safety bid.

"Are we seeing a flight towards safety?" Steve Sosnick is the chief market strategist of IBKR, Greenwich in Connecticut. It's difficult to imagine that stocks will not respond negatively, but the question is by how much. It depends on Iranian reactions and whether oil prices spike."

(source: Reuters)