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MORNING BID EUROPE - Trump flags crypto reserves, mum on financing

Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.

Crypto fans have had a great day after President Donald Trump announced on social media that he would be creating a reserve of digital assets, which included bitcoin, ether XRP, cardano, solana, and xrp.

Bitcoin is around 10% higher while ether jumped by 13%. The fund's workings are still unclear and will likely be explained at the White House Crypto Summit on Friday.

Analysts wonder how the reserve is going to be funded, given that the government has a debt of $36 trillion. Borrowing money to purchase crypto seems like a difficult sell. Some people have suggested that the government could use crypto seized by criminals in recent years. However, this would be only a paper transfer and not a new demand.

It is also uncertain whether Trump will impose 25% tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China on Tuesday. U.S. Commerce secretary Lutnick announced on Sunday that tariffs would be implemented on Canada and Mexico on Tuesday. However, Trump will decide whether or not to maintain the 25% level.

Trump could also soften his stance if Mexico or Canada agreed to impose their own tariffs against Chinese imports, and/or if the levies were delayed until after the April 1 deadline for a trade study to be completed.

Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker, which is closely watched, has shifted from a positive 2.3% to a negative 1.5%. Tariffs, which are a tax on U.S. consumer spending, could hurt the economy at a time where the United States is no longer a leader.

The threat of tariffs was enough to drive imports in January, bringing the U.S. Trade Deficit to its highest level ever. Normaly, this would indicate a significant drag on the GDP from net exports. However, analysts say that much of the increase in imports may have been non-monetary goods which are not counted as GDP.

Even if you ignore the statistical quirks and look at the markets, they are not in the mood for any more weak data. A miss on today's ISM forecast would boost bonds to the detriment of stocks. The markets have already priced in 73 basis point cuts by the Fed for January of next year. Just a few months ago, investors thought a quarter-point cut would be too much.

All of this makes Friday's payroll data even more important, especially since Fed Chair Powell will be speaking just a few minutes after the release.

Beijing's response, should tariffs go through, is unknown. On Wednesday, the National People's Congress will meet and announce new stimulus measures of 2 trillion to 3 trillion dollars (about $274 billion to $412 billion).

Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact

Data on the PMI in Europe, UK and US. U.S. ISM Survey for February.

- Alberto Musalem, President of the Fed Reserve Bank of St. Louis and Claudia Maria Buch, Chair of ECB Supervisory Board. $1 = 7.2876 Chinese Yuan

(source: Reuters)