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Sasol leaves coal export market and focuses on improving quality
Executives from the South African petrochemical company Sasol announced on Monday that it is leaving the coal export market and starting a de-stoning program to improve the quality of the feedstock for its synthetic fuels and chemicals business. Sasol manufactures fuel and chemicals using coal and gas and exports about 2 million tonnes of fossil fuel each year. The quality of coal used in Sasol's Secunda operation has been low for many years due to the high content of stones. The company has been producing lower volumes of chemicals and fuels, consistently underperforming its historical output levels. Simon Baloyi, CEO of the company, said that it is redesigning its coal export plant to reduce stone content in order to solve the problem. Baloyi stated that the quality of coal produced by its mines was "no longer export quality", adding that the project to de-stone the coal would restore fuel production and chemical production at historical levels. Walt Bruns, Sasol's Finance Director, said in an interview that they make more money by beneficiating the coal and turning it into fuels and chemicals rather than selling it for export. Bruns said that Sasol will lease out its coal export quotas at the Richards Bay Coal Terminal, to other miners. Sasol announced earlier on Monday that its headline earnings per share had fallen by 31% to 14,13 rand ($0.7712) for the six-month period ending December 2024 from 20,37 rand previously, due to a decline in oil prices as well as lower sales volumes. The company did not declare dividends because its negative free cash flow was 1.1 billion rands, and its net debt was $4.3 billions. This exceeded the levels of its capital allocation policy.
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Platts says that the Brent crude oil benchmark is working as expected and no changes are planned.
S&P Global Commodity Insights (Platts), a commodities reporting agency that provides information on commodity prices, stated Monday that the dated Brent crude oil market is working well since U.S. WTI was added to it. Further changes are not expected, Platts said. The first year that WTI Midland was included in the Brent benchmark date after its inclusion in the basket began in May 2023 due to falling North Sea production, was also the first year in which it was the first crude oil grade outside of the North Sea. Platts announced on Monday that Brent oil 2024 is a smooth ride for the benchmark dated after record trading volumes were recorded in the final months of the year. Platts has not announced any changes to the benchmark for the event. This year, we do not have any major initiatives to share about dated Brent. Richard Swann said that the past year was one of remarkably smooth operation. He spoke at Platts’ event in London as part of International Energy Week. This is a market that's working well. The different components are seeing a lot more liquidity and they all contribute to the ecosystem around Brent. Platts reported that a volume record of 39,7 million barrels was achieved for its North Sea crude oil physical cargoes in December. This includes contract for difference and cash BFOE fractions.
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Iraq announces it will update its Overproduction Compensation Plan
Iraq reaffirmed Monday its commitment to the OPEC+ Agreement and said that it would present an update plan to compensate any overproduction from previous periods. Baghdad said that its oil minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani spoke with Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman and OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais. Iraq has said that it will continue to make efforts to compensate for the overproduction, while also taking into consideration the expected handover of oil from the Kurdistan Regional Government. OPEC+, a grouping of members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies, such as Russia is scheduled to increase its supply in April. OPEC+ has agreed to reduce its output by 5,85 million barrels a day (bpd), which is about 5.7%, in a series steps that have been taken since 2022. The group has extended its most recent layer of cuts until the first quarter 2025. This is the latest delay due to weak demand, and increased supply outside of the group. Baghdad awaits the approval of Turkey to resume oil flow from the Iraqi Kurdistan Region after a two year halt that began in March 2022, when the International Chamber of Commerce ordered Ankara pay Baghdad damages of $1.5 billion for unauthorised exports in the period between 2014 and 2018. Sources have confirmed that the Trump administration has put pressure on Iraqi officials to allow Kurdish exports of oil to resume or else face sanctions along with Iran. Later, an Iraqi official denied the pressure and threat of sanctions. A senior Iraqi official in the oil ministry told reporters earlier that around 185,000 barrels of oil per day will be exported through the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline from Kurdistan once oil shipments resume. Iraq and Kazakhstan both promised compensation cuts in order to compensate for overproduction. Reporting from Jana Choukeir, Baghdad; Ahmed Rasheed, Dubai; writing by Mahal Dahan; editing by Kirby Donovan
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Bangladeshi migrants are at risk of abuse after being exiled from the Gulf due to climate change
Climate change forces families abroad to send relatives Migrants are at risk of sexual abuse, wage denial, and other forms of abuse. Experts call for better protection in host cities Tahmid Zami Tahmid Zami "Vulnerable individuals who are pushed to their limits by climate shocks make a big gamble in order to pay for migration but end up facing abuse," Ritu Bharadwaj said, one of the authors. The study of Bangladeshi migrants from climate-vulnerable regions who worked in the Gulf revealed that almost all of them had experienced at least one form exploitation, whether it was employer abuse, sexual assault or wage denial. The International Institute for Environment and Development says that migrants, who are mostly from Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Oman, become trapped in a "modern form of slavery" when they take out loans or sell land to cover the $4,021 required to find work abroad. The think tank in London spoke with 648 households about the impact of climate change on those living at the frontline. On the Move As the world has become warmer, migration has increased in the last two decades, depriving people of a stable life, future, or reliable income. In the study, it was found that households in disaster-prone areas were twice as likely to relocate within Bangladesh and 1.6 times more likely than those in less dangerous places to do so. In the last decade, 88% of families sent someone overseas. This is up from just 9% in 2001-2010 or 4% in 1990s. Bangladesh is the seventh most vulnerable nation to climate change. Disasters such as floods and cyclones are increasing in frequency. Climate-related disasters cost the economy four times more than they did in 1960-1990. They now amount to $558 millions annually. The study found that this cost each family living in the disaster-prone coastal region more than $870 per year. This leaves families with less money for necessities of life like food, health, and education. Farmers, fishermen and small business owners were among those most affected. Their livelihoods were often severely impacted, forcing them into seeking out new opportunities. Take Pirojpur, a district on the southern coast in Bangladesh that has been hit by cyclones and floods. Abu Musa, a teacher in Dhaka, said that he sent his brother there to work as a guard because the monsoon last year destroyed his family's crops and fishing. Many people who moved to other cities faced new problems and risks in their new homes, especially those who had relocated abroad. According to the study, migrants working in the garment and construction industries in large cities are denied compensation for workplace accidents while domestic workers face beatings or inadequate bedding and food. Bharadwaj said that migrants who move abroad face greater risks because they are forced to recover their high start-up costs. The study found that employers often confiscate workers' passports, barring them from leaving their workplace, denying the chance for them to contact family or the embassy. The survey revealed that women suffer the most. More than 80% of respondents reported abuse such as beatings or sexual harassment by their hosts. Where to turn? International Labour Organization (ILO) says that as the number of Bangladeshi migrants to Gulf countries reaches millions, embassies struggle to monitor the conditions or to mount rescues. The sad thing is that when workers are abused, they don't know who to turn to, said Mohammad Rashed Alam Bhuiyan. He is an assistant professor at Dhaka University, studying climate migrants from Bangladesh. He said that the government could outsource services such as shelter or health care to private organizations. Md Shamsuddoha of the Center for Participatory Research and Development in Dhaka, Bangladesh, stated that helping communities reduce climate-related losses could also help to reduce the risk of abuse overseas. He said that if families received early warnings about disasters and cash assistance, they might be better informed, and more likely to remain. Experts have also pointed out the complex web of brokers who help migrants find work from the Middle East up to Malaysia. Bharadwaj, from IIED, says that these middlemen are frequently accused of fraud and deceit. This highlights the need to track migrants better.
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Metal prices rise for US manufacturers as tariffs approach
In the past two weeks the price of steel Glen Calder purchases for his small machinery manufacturing factory in South Carolina has risen over 15%, but Brian Nelson's Illinois factory can't even get current prices from its suppliers. Nelson said, "They are waiting for tariffs." Although President Donald Trump's tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminium are not scheduled to begin until March 12, their impact is already being felt by the producers and builders who rely on these metals for the production of their products. It's not good. Trump ran on a pledge to use tariffs as a tool to boost domestic manufacturing. He also sees the additional revenue as a means to offset lost federal revenues from his tax cuts. Tariffs on imported aluminum and steel, while helping U.S. mills to increase their prices, translate quickly into higher prices for producers who purchase and process these metals into fridges, cars, and combines. The U.S. steel prices have risen in recent days. This is in addition to the gains made since Trump was elected president. According to Fastmarkets, hot rolled coils in the Midwest have increased 12% since the beginning of the month to $839 a short ton. They've also risen 20% since Trump became president on January 20. In contrast, prices of this type of steel have risen by only 6% in Northern Europe and barely changed in Eastern China since January 20, according to data provider Fastmarkets. According to a new Bain & Co. survey, 40% of chief executives and top executives expect double-digit increases to their input costs as a result of tariffs. About 80% have revised or are considering revising financial projections to reflect the increased costs. Leon Topalian was the CEO of Nucor, the largest U.S. steelmaker, and he praised Trump's plans for tariffs earlier this month, calling them the first steps of "his America First Trade Agenda." Nucor raised the price of hot-rolled coils for the fourth time in the past year. 'MIDDLE GUY' IN THE SANDWICH: Buyers usually acquire metals directly from mills, or via so-called "service centers", smaller businesses who buy metal in bulk and then process it into the forms required by buyers, like being cut to specific lengths. Nelson, CEO of HCC, Mendota in Illinois, purchases both ways. He has not been able, at this time, to obtain price quotes from any of his usual sources. He was told by his senior buyer that mills had canceled orders, placed orders on hold and increased lead time due to the tariff uncertainty. He said that "lead times have been pushed back" because customers are panic-buying. He compares his business with being squeezed both above and below. HCC manufactures harvesting reels, some of which are over 30 feet in length, for large combines and other parts for big reapers. HCC is stuck between steel producers and their customers, large farm equipment manufacturers like Deere or AGCO. Nelson told us he had just spoken to a big manufacturer who asked how much of the tariff-related steel price increase he planned to absorb. I said that we'll pass the cost on to you, and you can decide whether you'd like to pass on this price increase to your customers. The price of factory inputs is already rising. The price of factory inputs is already on the rise. Survey released on Friday S&P Global reported that the price index for inputs paid by companies increased from 57.4 to 58.5 in January. The manufacturing index, which rose to 63.5 last month from 57.4 the previous month, was also a major contributor. "Purchasing managers blamed tariffs and supplier-driven increases in prices for this increase," A White House spokesperson said that tariffs were only one part of an administration's economic agenda. This included cutting regulations, reducing energy costs, and reining in inflation. Spending cuts will also lower interest rates, and make U.S. Steel and Aluminum producers more competitive. The White House spokesperson said that the tariffs were meant to provide breathing space to domestic producers of aluminum and steel, and to help them reach their full capacity. The price of aluminum and steel will increase as a result. Glen Calder is resigned to the fact that he will have to absorb these costs. Calder Brothers in Taylors produces paving machines worth $200,000 that are sold by asphalt contractors to municipalities and for tasks like paving subdivision streets and parking lots. He's already seen a spike in his steel prices over the past few weeks and has been warned that he can expect to see more. In an interview on February 17, he stated that "as of this morning my steel prices have increased 15.2% since the beginning" of the month. "My machine prices aren't 15.2% higher, I can assure you." Calder's factory of 100 employees competes with four other domestic firms. He said that business was slow, which he attributed to customers who were hesitant to purchase new machines due to still-high interest rates. Calder said, "This isn't the time to raise my prices." More than just metal steel isn't the only thing that causes him problems. The large U.S. manufacturer Cummins sells him heavy-duty engines, but the model that is designed for his machines was produced in China by the Indiana-based firm. Trump's administration increased tariffs against China by 10% in the first month of this year. As manufacturers prepare for the future, they rely on the memory of the last time that the U.S. imposed new tariffs on metals in 2018 during the first Trump Administration. A.H. McElroy II (CEO of McElroy Manufacturing, Tulsa) said that the price increase is inevitable. He said that, in the past, the prices of domestic suppliers did not match those of imports. He said that "they raise it just below" the import prices. McElroy's firm makes machines to weld plastic pipes. He said that raw steel was only a small portion of the overall cost of the company, but that many of its suppliers used the metal and aluminum to make the components they provided him. The company surveyed its top 15 raw material suppliers to get a better idea of their exposure. The responses ranged from "zero effect anticipated" by tariffs to "full assurance that our costs will rise as domestic demand increases, and producers increase their prices." (Reporting from Timothy Aeppel and Eric Onstad, both in New York; editing by Dan Burns and Claudia Parsons.)
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EU lifts sanctions on Syria, including those on banking and energy
The European Union has suspended sanctions against Syria, including those relating to energy, banking and transport, with immediate effect. The EU has implemented a number of sanctions against individuals and sectors in Syria. After the insurgents led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), an islamist group, ousted Bashar al Assad from his position as president in December, European leaders began to rethink their approach. On Monday, the EU Foreign Ministers met in Brussels and agreed to suspend sanctions against the oil, gas, and electricity sectors, as well as the transport sector. The Syrian Central Bank has also been exempted from restrictions and asset freezes. The EU maintained a number of other sanctions against the Assad government, including those related to arms trade, dual-use products with both civilian and military uses, surveillance software, and international trade in cultural heritage items from Syria. They stated that they would monitor the situation in Syria and ensure the suspensions were appropriate. Reporting by Bart Meijer Editing Bernadettebaum and Aidan Lewis
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Draft shows that EU will exempt most companies of carbon border levies
A draft proposal by the European Commission showed that the Commission would propose to exempt "the vast majority of" companies from the EU's Carbon Border Levy because they only produce 1% of the emissions under the scheme. The commission will propose the move this week, as part of an overall package of measures designed to reduce red tape and streamline business processes. This would dramatically reduce the number of importers who are currently covered by a world-first border tax on carbon in the European Union. The draft proposal of the Commission, which was seen by, detailed plans to limit the application of the CBAM (also known as the carbon border levie) to only companies that import goods up to a threshold of 50 tonnes of mass per year. "A mass-based criterion reflecting the average emission intensity of the volume imported CBAM products would better translate climate objectives of the CBAM." The threshold of 50 tonnes would exempt the majority of importers of their obligations under this Regulation," said it. According to the draft, this change would cover more than 99% emissions that are covered by the border carbon tax. The carbon border tax would replace existing CBAM regulations, which require all companies and individuals importing CBAM covered goods worth more than 150 euros to pay it starting next year. In 2026, this policy will charge at the EU-border for the CO2 emissions that are embedded in steel, aluminum, cement, and other imported goods. Wopke H. Hoekstra, EU Climate Commissioner said this month that the analysis of the Commission had shown that nearly all the emissions covered under the carbon border tax - 97% of them - were produced by only 20% of companies in the scheme. The draft document stated that the majority of exempted consumers are small or medium businesses. It said that "for these importers, compliance with CBAM obligations results in a significant administrative burden which outweighs the environmental and regulatory benefits." Before the Commission publishes it on Wednesday, there is still time for changes to be made. All changes to EU policy must be approved by both the European Parliament as well as the EU member states.
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Iraqi minister: Iraq is waiting on Turkey's approval before restarting oil flow from Kurdistan.
Iraq's oil minister announced on Monday that it is awaiting Turkey's approval before restarting the oil flow out of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region. Hayan Abdel Ghani, a reporter, said that he hoped to have the Kurdish oil exported in two days. When asked about the timing of Iraq's return to oil exports, he replied that "this issue would be resolved in a week." Kurdistan regional government announced on Sunday that the Iraqi Kurdistan officials have agreed to resume Kurdish crude oil exports, based on volumes available. In March 2023, the pipeline was shut down by Turkey after the International Chamber of Commerce ordered Ankara pay Baghdad damages of $1.5 billion for exports that were not authorised between 2014 and 2018. The administration of U.S. president Donald Trump is putting Americans at risk Pressure Sources have said that Iraq must allow the restart of Kurdish oil exports or else face sanctions along with Iran. Later, an Iraqi official denied the pressure or threat of sanctions. The rapid resumption in exports of oil from Iraq's semiautonomous Kurdistan would help offset the potential drop in Iranian oil exports. Washington has promised to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero, as part of Trump’s "maximum-pressure" campaign against Tehran. Reporting by Muayad Kenney and Ahmed Rasheed; Writing by Clauda Tanian, Editing By Louise Heavens
OPEC+ faces a loss of control if it delays its output further: Bousso
OPEC, along with its allies, is faced with a difficult decision: Should they begin lowering the oil production cap even though crude supply and demand are unlikely to improve anytime soon? The OPEC and its allies may choose to delay this crucial moment in order to maintain prices, but they risk losing market control.
In April, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major producers, including Russia, will begin to slowly unwind years of production restrictions.
After a series cuts since 2022, the group has held back 5.85 million barrels of production per day, or 5.7% of global consumption.
Due to the persistently low oil demand and growth of global crude production, the rollback of 2.2 millions bpd, announced in November for 2024's first quarter, has been delayed five different times.
Unfortunately, the market is not likely to improve significantly by April.
It may even get worse, as the increasingly fractious relations between the United States of America and other major economies will weigh on demand for oil.
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has urged Saudi Arabia, OPEC de-facto leader to lower oil prices. Trump's discussion with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, and the bilateral U.S. - Russia talks that followed in Saudi Arabia, have raised speculations about a possible ceasefire in Ukraine as well as a possible easing of U.S. restrictions on Moscow's huge oil production.
DISCIPLINE
OPEC+'s members have been able to maintain relative stability on the oil market in recent years largely due to their discipline. Benchmark Brent crude has remained in the range of $70-$100 a barrel, except for a few volatile months that followed Moscow's invasion.
OPEC has seen its market share and ability to control the market steadily decline as non-member producers increased their output. Drillers in the Permian deposits of Texas and New Mexico have seen their output soar in recent years that the United States is now the top producer in the world.
This month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for U.S. crude oil production to a record 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025. Although the rate of growth has slowed, it is expected that production will remain constant for many years.
The EIA predicts that global oil production will grow by 1.6 millions bpd in 2025, with the United States, Canada and Brazil leading this growth.
Meanwhile, tensions are rising within the alliance.
Chevron's $48 billion expansion at Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field is expected to achieve production of 260,000 barrels per day by the end February, four months earlier than planned. This will bring total production up to 1,000,000 barrels per day. To meet its production goal, the central Asian country would have to significantly reduce its output, resulting in a loss of revenue.
Nigeria has increased production in the last few months. Kurdistan, Iraq's semiautonomous region, could soon resume its 300,000 barrels per day oil exports after a two-year dispute.
After years of investment, the United Arab Emirates (a close ally of Saudi Arabia) is also increasing its capacity. Gulf State has reached a capacity of almost 5 million barrels per day, as opposed to the current official production levels of 3.2 millions bpd. This year, the quota will increase by 300,000.
Tough Choices
According to the International Energy Agency, the growth of the oil supply in 2025 will outpace the global demand for oil, which is forecast to increase by 1.1 millions bpd, after gaining 870,000 bpd last year.
OPEC's global oil inventory trends are slightly more positive, but still not very much. If production does indeed exceed demand, then stocks should begin to rise this year. More OPEC+ supply would only accelerate the build-up.
OPEC+ is thus faced with a difficult choice. The upside of further delays in the unwinding of cuts is limited, since significant spare production capacity already helps maintain stable oil prices by providing a market buffer. Holding back production increases economic pressures for producers who are growing their capacity within a group.
Trump could be irritated by a delay.
On the other hand however, an increase in production on a market that is well supplied could result in a drop of oil prices.
OPEC+ could decide to delay again, but that decision will have consequences. The group's credibility and market share may suffer even further.
** The opinions here are the columnist's, who is an author for **
(source: Reuters)