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Senator says that the US Department of Health will reverse the federal layoffs for coal safety workers
Shelley Moore Capito, West Virginia Republican senator and former federal employee who screens coal miners for black lungs disease and conducts research on other respiratory diseases who were terminated in a sweeping government layoff have their jobs permanently restored. According to an email sent to employees by the Department of Health and Human Services on Wednesday, they make up a significant percentage of 313 workers who were notified by the Department that their layoff notifications were rescinded. NIOSH has nearly 1,500 full-time employees in eight offices throughout the world. United States Capito stated in a press release that Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Secretary of Health and Human Services, had assured her that HHS reversed terminations at the NIOSH facility located in Morgantown West Virginia. In a press release, she stated that "my understanding is from Secretary Kennedy that over 100 Morgantown workers will return to their jobs permanently." NIOSH operates a coal mine surveillance unit, which has been effectively closed since February due to sweeping layoffs by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. This is despite the fact that black lung disease, a deadly respiratory condition affecting coal miners of all ages - including those in their 30s - continues to recur. Reports had stated that these potential job cuts as well as the cuts made at the Mine Health Safety Administration put miners in danger, even though President Donald Trump was calling for a revival of coal. Status of NIOSH employees has been changing. Some workers were brought back from administrative leave in the beginning of this month, only to find out a few days later that their employment was terminated permanently. Capito stated that she spoke with Kennedy several times, urging him to keep the coal worker surveillance program. According to internal emails, the agency intends to continue with the majority of its planned layoffs despite the return of some NIOSH workers to full-time employment. John Howard's director sent a letter to NIOSH staff on Tuesday, stating that he was calling back some terminated employees. This included employees from the Respiratory Health Division, which includes the coal mine monitoring unit, the National Personal Protective Technology Laboratory, the Division of Safety Research, and the Division of Compensation and Analysis Support. The World Trade Center Health Program also employs 15 full-time staff to provide support for 9/11 first responders who are ill. Two sources familiar with the story said that 18 of 28 DECA staffers who handle compensation claims for former nuclear workers who have cancer were also brought back. Kennedy will appear before Congress on Tuesday, and he's likely to be asked about the mass layoffs that occurred at HHS.
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Gold prices drop to a new low after trade optimism increases
The gold price dropped by more than 2%, reaching a new low of over a month, as investors shifted away from bullion due to rising risk appetite. As of 1011 ET (14.10 GMT), spot gold fell to its lowest level since April 11 and dropped 1.8% to $3.188.52 per ounce. Bullion dropped as low as $3.174.62 in an earlier session. U.S. Gold Futures declined 1.7% to $3192.80. Tai Wong is an independent metals dealer. He said, "The global relief rallies sparked by steep reductions in U.S. - China tariffs have triggered a corrective movement through technical levels of gold." Wall Street's major indexes began higher on Monday, with the deal over tariffs and expectations for more trade agreements driving their gains. Washington and Beijing have agreed to drastically reduce tariffs and adopted a 90 day pause as the details are worked out. In an interview with CNN on Tuesday, Donald Trump said he would be willing to negotiate directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping about the details of a new trade agreement. He said "potential deals", with India, Japan and South Korea are in the works. Last month, gold, a precious metal that is considered a safe place in times of economic and geopolitical turmoil, reached a new record of $3,500.05. Prices have risen by 21.6% this year. Fawad Rasaqzada is a market analyst for City Index and FOREX.com. He said: "While the trend in the long term remains bullish, it wouldn't surprise me if the momentum continued to be bearish for a couple of more days." The first target for the downside is $3,136. Next, it's $3,073 then $3,000, and finally, the biggest level. After softer than expected consumer data, traders are now waiting for the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) to be released on Thursday. This will provide clues as to the Federal Reserve's policy direction. As a zero-yielding investment, lower interest rates make bullion more appealing. Silver spot fell by 1.8%, to $32.29 per ounce. Platinum dropped 0.5%, to $983.42. Palladium increased 0.1%, to $957.65. (Reporting by Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru; Editing by Tasim Zahid)
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EU prepared to slow down in US trade negotiations in pursuit of a bigger deal
Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, said this week that Switzerland and Britain were in the lead for a deal with the United States. He warned the European Union to move "much more slowly". Brussels isn't too worried. The EU believes that its size is an advantage when it comes to trading. Senior EU officials claim that as one of the top three economies in the world, the EU won't back down and is looking for a better trade deal with Washington. The clock is ticking. The EU is trying to prevent a trade relationship worth $1.7 trillion from escalating into a full-blown war of transatlantic trade. "We don't feel weak. "We do not feel that we are under excessive pressure to accept an agreement, which would be unfair for us," EU trade chief Maros Sfcovic stated last week. Sefcovic spoke before Bessent's remarks in Geneva. Washington and Beijing had agreed to cut tariffs by over 100%, and halt their trade war. The stance of Brussels remains unchanged. If negotiations fail during the 90-day pause, additional "reciprocal tariffs" -- totaling a combined 20 percent in the EU case -- are planned. The threat of further tariffs also includes pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and critical minerals as well as lumber and trucks. EU trade officials who have been involved in the Washington negotiations say that they are having difficulty understanding President Donald Trump's goals for trade. The European Commission's Ursula von der Leyen, who is the President of the European Commission, has yet to meet Trump in a formal setting since Trump reclaimed his presidency as president of the United States in January. They only exchanged words briefly during Pope Francis’s funeral at Vatican. Trump later praised von der Leyen as "fantastic", and added "I hope that we will meet." She replied: "If I'm going to the White House I want a package that we can discuss." Her comments reflect Europe's desire for a comprehensive trade deal, and not one that is a quick win in politics but has a limited scope. This was the case with the Washington-London agreement. Tough Talks According to US data, the EU-US trade volume is six times greater than that of US-UK. Europe believes that its weight counts in negotiations. "I'm not sure that the EU is going to have to adopt any template," Lithuanian Finance Minister Rimantas Sazius said on the sidelines a meeting of EU finance ministers. Eurointelligence analysts pointed out that the EU needs to prepare for discussions that go beyond trade. White House officials said that Europe must lower non-tariff trade barriers, such as those created by the value-added taxes and regulations governing food and automobile safety. If the EU is to progress in this field, it might need to reconsider its approach. Eurointelligence's briefing note stated that Maros Sfcovic could only speak about trade in its narrowest sense. "He cannot even promise to lower the regulatory barriers." Washington appeared to ignore the value-added (VAT) tax, which Trump has referred to as a trade barrier in its agreement with London. Britain did not reduce its digital services tax or loosen food standards on beef imports. Both of these were criticised by Washington. Washington and Brussels have had a difficult time negotiating so far. Christian Kohlpaintner, CEO of German chemicals company Brenntag, said that he thought the EU handled negotiations "very sensibly". He told reporters in an earnings call Wednesday that the 90-day period is a "sedative." "But not (a cure) that provides clarity on the future development in the markets." Simon Evenett is a professor at the IMD Business School. He said that the US-UK agreement and Washington's truce in Beijing indicated that a 10% general tariff and 25% for specific sectors was the baseline. He said that Wall Street’s reaction would be able to tame excessiveness, after Trump was convinced by Wall Street’s reaction. This could help to contain any U.S.-EU trade conflicts, as broader trade and investments ties are valued at $9.5 trillion per year. It could take a long time and be very difficult. "I can see the EU facing tariffs and a deadlock," he said. (Reporting and editing by Toby Chopra; Additional reporting by Ozan Masoni in Milan, Danilo Ergenay at Gdansk; Reporting by Philip Blenkinsop)
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EPA will roll back 'forever chemicals' rule and extend timelines
The EPA announced Wednesday that it will rescind a large part of the first national drinking water standard of the Biden Administration, which was designed to protect people from "forever chemicals", also known as PFAS, found in household products. However, two of these chemicals will remain within current limits. The "forever chemicals", as they are called, do not break down easily in the body or in the environment. They can be found in hundreds consumer and commercial products including non-stick pans (non-stick), cosmetics, firefighting sprays, and stain resistant clothing. The EPA's rule, finalized under the Biden administration last year, set limits for five PFAS chemicals, PFOA, PFOS PFNA PFHxS and HFPO DA. The rule gave public water systems three year to monitor for these chemicals, and required that they inform the public about the levels of PFAS in their drinking waters. If PFAS levels exceed the standard, water systems are required to install systems that reduce PFAS to their drinking water before 2029. The EPA's new proposal, under the leadership of President Donald Trump would give drinking water systems additional time to develop plans to address PFOA and PFOS. It would also extend the date by which these two PFAS chemicals must be in compliance to 2031. The government would also rescind regulations and re-evaluate the regulatory decisions for the three other PFAS chemicals. EPA intends to release a proposed regulation this fall, and finalize the rule by spring 2026. In a press release, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin stated that the program would help water systems throughout the United States, including those in small rural communities, to combat these contaminants. "EPA will continue to use its enforcement and regulatory tools to hold polluters responsible." Separately on Tuesday, New Jersey announced the $450 million settlement with 3M that it called its largest statewide PFAS settlement in state history. The EPA announced Wednesday that it would launch a campaign titled PFAS OUT, to reach out to every public water utility in need of capital improvements for PFAS removal from their system. (Reporting and Editing by William Maclean, Valerie Volcovici)
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What are the risks and outlines of a potential Ukraine peace deal?
What are the possible contours of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine? SECURITY GUARANTEE Ukraine, which has been subjected to a full scale invasion in 2022, and witnessed Russia annex Crimea, needs security guarantees from major powers, primarily the United States. The Budapest Memorandum of 1994, in which the U.S., Russia and Britain agreed to refrain from using force against Ukraine and respect Ukrainian sovereignty was not enough for the Ukrainian government. The powers agreed to take the matter to the United Nations Security Council in the event of an attack on Ukraine. Sources involved in the talks say that the problem is that any security agreement that does not have teeth will leave Ukraine vulnerable. Diplomats in draft proposals of a possible settlement for peace, seen by us, spoke about a "robust guarantee" including a possible agreement similar to Article 5. Article 5 of NATO's treaty binds allies together to defend one another in the event of a military attack. Ukraine is not part of NATO. According to a draft of the failed 2022 agreement, Ukraine had agreed to permanent neutrality as part of a deal with the five permanent members on the U.N. Security Council - Britain, China France, Russia, the United States and other nations such as Belarus, Canada Germany Israel, Poland, and Turkey. Officials in Kyiv, however, say that they will not accept neutrality for Ukraine. NATO AND NEUTRALITY Russia has said repeatedly that a possible NATO membership by Kyiv is inacceptable and that Ukraine should be neutral, with no foreign bases. Zelenskiy said that it was not up to Moscow to decide Ukraine’s alliances. NATO leaders in Bucharest agreed to admit Ukraine and Georgia as members one day at the Bucharest Summit of 2008. In 2019, Ukraine amended its constitution to commit to full membership in NATO and the European Union. U.S. ambassador General Keith Kellogg said that NATO membership for Ukraine was "off the table". Donald Trump said that the U.S.'s past support of Ukraine's NATO membership was the cause of war. Ukraine and Russia discussed neutrality in 2022. According to a draft of an agreement, Russia wants limits placed on the Ukrainian military. Ukraine is opposed to any restrictions on the size or capabilities of its military. Russia has stated that it does not object to Ukraine's EU membership bid, although some members of the EU could oppose Kyiv’s bid. Territorial Moscow claims to control about a fifth (or a fifth) of Ukraine, and that the territory now belongs formally to Russia. This is a position that most countries don't accept. In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea. According to Russian estimates, Russian forces control nearly all of Luhansk and more than 70% Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. Russia controls a small part of Kharkiv. Putin's most detailed peace proposals, which he outlined in June of 2024, stated that Ukraine would be required to withdraw from all these regions, including those not currently under Russian rule. According to a draft plan of peace drafted by the Trump Administration, the U.S. will de jure recognize Russian control over Crimea and de facto acknowledge Russian control over Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and other parts. Ukraine would gain territory in Kharkiv Region, and the U.S. will control and administrate Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant which is currently under Russian control. Kyiv has said that officially recognising Russian sovereignty over occupied territories is not possible and would be a violation of Ukraine's Constitution. However, territorial issues could be discussed in talks after a ceasefire. Steve Witkoff, a Trump envoy, told Breitbart last week that the main issues are the regions and the nuclear plant. It's also about how the Ukrainians can use the Dnieper River to reach the ocean. Sanctions Russia is in favor of Western sanctions being lifted, but it's sceptical they will happen soon. Even if US sanctions were lifted, EU sanctions and other Western sanctions such as those imposed in Australia, Britain and Canada could continue for many years. Ukraine wants sanctions to stay in place. The U.S. government has been reported to be studying ways to ease sanctions against Russia's energy industry as part of a broader plan that would allow Washington to provide swift relief in the event Moscow agreed to end the Ukraine conflict. OIL AND GAS Trump suggested that Putin who is the second largest oil exporter in the world, may be more inclined towards a resolution of the Ukraine War following the recent drop in oil price, although the Kremlin stated that national interests always trump oil pricing. Some diplomats speculate that the U.S. and Russia are looking for lower oil prices in a larger grand bargain that includes issues ranging from the Middle East to Ukraine. In the beginning of this month, it was reported that Washington and Moscow officials had held talks about how Washington could help revive Russian gas exports to Europe. CEASEFIRE Before talks can begin, European powers and Ukraine want Russia to agree to a truce. But Moscow insists that a truce will only be effective once the verification issues have been resolved. Kyiv claims that Moscow is trying to buy time. RECONSTRUCTION UKRAINE European powers are looking to utilize some of the Russian assets that have been frozen in the West, to assist Kyiv. Russia rejects this. Reports from February indicate that Russia may agree to use $300 billion in sovereign assets that are frozen in Europe as part of the reconstruction of Ukraine, but that it will insist on spending a portion of that money in the one-fifth that is controlled by Moscow's forces. Ukraine wants to use all $300 billion in assets seized for post-war reconstruction. (Reporting and editing by Gareth Jones, Guy Faulconbridge)
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MP Materials and Ma'aden will jointly develop rare Earths supply chain in Saudi
MP Materials, a U.S. rare-earths miner, announced on Wednesday that it had signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden mining company to jointly develop a supply chain for rare earths in the Middle Eastern nation. Why it's important The agreement was signed at the U.S. - Saudi Investment Forum where President Donald Trump obtained a $600 Billion investment from Saudi Arabia in the sectors of energy, defense, and mining. Saudi Arabia is pushing to be a global hub for critical minerals at a moment when processing minerals has become an essential for tech-focused countries looking to create their own building blocks in AI, electric cars and other sectors. CONTEXT Ma'aden, a Canadian firm, was reported to be considering a partnership in rare earths with one of four foreign companies, including MP Materials or Shenghe Resources from China, Australia's Lynas, or Canada's Neo Performance Materials. MP Materials' partnership with Ma'aden will include the mining, separation and magnet production of rare-earth minerals. KEY QUOTES James Litinsky, CEO of MP Materials, said that today's announcement was an important step in rebalancing global supply chains... particularly in robotics and AI physical - while deepening strategic alliances between the United States ad Saudi Arabia. Ma'aden's Bob Wilt, CEO of Ma'aden, said that the partnership was a vital step in establishing mining as the "third pillar" for the Saudi economy. MARKET REACTION Before the bell, shares of MP Materials rose by nearly 5%. (Reporting and editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri in Bengaluru, Vallari Srivastava from Bengaluru)
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Snakes and ladders in a potential Ukrainian peace deal
What are the possible contours of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine? SECURITY GUARANTEE Ukraine, which has been subjected to a full scale invasion in 2022, and witnessed Russia annex Crimea, needs security guarantees from major powers, primarily the United States. The Budapest Memorandum of 1994, in which the U.S., Russia and Britain agreed to refrain from using force against Ukraine and respect Ukrainian sovereignty was not enough for the Ukrainian government. The powers agreed to take the matter to the United Nations Security Council in the event of an attack on Ukraine. Sources involved in the talks say that the problem is that a security guarantee with teeth could lock the West into an eventual future war against Russia, and a security agreement without teeth could leave Ukraine vulnerable. Diplomats, in draft proposals of a possible settlement for peace that we saw, spoke about a "robust guarantee of security", which could include an agreement similar to Article 5. Article 5 of NATO's treaty binds allies together to defend one another in the event of an invasion, even though Ukraine isn't a member. According to a draft of the failed 2022 agreement, Ukraine had agreed to permanent neutrality as part of a deal with the five permanent members on the U.N. Security Council - Britain, China France, Russia, the United States and other nations such as Belarus, Canada Germany Israel, Poland, and Turkey. Officials in Kyiv, however, say that they will not accept neutrality for Ukraine. NATO AND NEUTRALITY Russia has said repeatedly that a possible NATO membership by Kyiv is a war cause and must be rejected. Ukraine should remain neutral, with no foreign bases. Zelenskiy said that it was not up to Moscow to decide Ukraine’s alliances. NATO leaders in Bucharest agreed to admit Ukraine and Georgia as members one day at the Bucharest Summit of 2008. In 2019, Ukraine amended its constitution to commit to full membership in NATO and the European Union. U.S. ambassador General Keith Kellogg said that NATO membership for Ukraine was "off the table". Donald Trump said that the U.S.'s past support of Ukraine's NATO membership was a major cause of war. Ukraine and Russia discussed neutrality in 2022. According to a draft of an agreement, Russia wants limits placed on the Ukrainian military. Ukraine is opposed to any restrictions on the size or capabilities of its military. Russia has stated that it does not object to Ukraine's EU membership bid, although some members of the EU could oppose Kyiv’s bid. Territorial Moscow claims to control about a fifth (or 5%) of Ukraine, and that the territory now belongs to Russia. This is a position that most countries don't accept. In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea. According to Russian estimates, Russian forces control nearly all of Luhansk and more than 70% Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. Russia controls a small part of Kharkiv. Putin's most detailed peace proposals, which he outlined in June of 2024, stated that Ukraine would be required to withdraw from all these regions, including those not currently under Russian rule. According to a draft plan of peace drafted by the Trump Administration, the U.S. will de jure recognize Russian control over Crimea and de facto acknowledge Russian control over Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and other parts. Ukraine would gain territory in Kharkiv Region, and the U.S. will control and administrate Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant which is currently under Russian control. Kyiv has said that legally recognising Russian sovereignty over occupied territories is out of question, and would be a violation of Ukraine's Constitution. However, territorial issues could be discussed in talks after a ceasefire. Steve Witkoff, a Trump envoy, told Breitbart last week that the main issues are the regions and the nuclear plant. It's also about how the Ukrainians can use the Dnieper River to reach the ocean. Sanctions Russia is in favor of Western sanctions being lifted, but is skeptical that this will happen soon. Even if US sanctions were lifted, EU sanctions and other Western sanctions such as those imposed in Australia, Britain and Canada could continue for many years. Ukraine wants sanctions to stay in place. The U.S. government has been reported to be studying ways to ease sanctions against Russia's energy industry as part of a broader plan that would allow Washington to provide swift relief in the event Moscow agreed to end the Ukraine conflict. OIL AND GAS Trump suggested that Putin, the leader of the second largest oil exporter in the world, may be more inclined towards a resolution to the Ukraine War following the recent drop in oil price, although the Kremlin stated that national interests always trump oil pricing. Some diplomats speculate that the U.S. and Russia are looking for lower oil prices in a larger grand bargain that includes issues ranging from the Middle East to Ukraine. In the beginning of this month, it was reported that Washington and Moscow officials had held talks about how Washington could help revive Russian gas exports to Europe. CEASEFIRE Before talks can begin, European powers and Ukraine want Russia to agree to a truce. But Moscow insists that a ceasefire won't work until verification issues have been resolved. Kyiv claims that Moscow is trying to buy time. RECONSTRUCTION UKRAINE European powers are looking to utilize some of the Russian assets that have been frozen in the West, to assist Kyiv. Russia rejects this. Reports from February indicate that Russia may agree to use $300 billion in sovereign assets that are frozen in Europe as part of the reconstruction of Ukraine, but that it will insist on spending a portion of that money in the one-fifth that is controlled by Moscow's forces. Ukraine wants to use all $300 billion in assets seized for post-war reconstruction. (Reporting and editing by Gareth Jones, Guy Faulconbridge)
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FranceAgriMer increases its 2024/25 Wheat export forecast on the back of late-season demand
The farm office FranceAgriMer increased its outlook on French soft wheat exports for 2024/25 on Wednesday. However, an increase in demand at the end of the season would not be sufficient to prevent full-year exports from falling to their lowest levels this century following a rain-hit crop. FranceAgriMer, based on data from supply and demand, projected French soft-wheat exports outside of the EU to be 3.2 million metric tonnes this season. This is up from 3.1 million tons last month. Meanwhile, 2024/25 EU soft-wheat shipments inside the EU were estimated at 6.55 millions tons. Despite the upward revision to the forecast, both the total exports of soft wheat and the shipments outside the EU remained at the lowest levels in the records of the office since 1996/97. A diplomatic split between France and Algeria and the Black Sea region have both contributed to a decline in French exports. A sharp drop in prices over the past few weeks has led to speculation on the market that France may be able to secure sales for destinations like Egypt in late season. Habasse Diagouraga, FranceAgriMer's grain analyst, told reporters that the market expectations of France loading wheat for Egypt by the end season, on June 30th, as well as recent shipments in Morocco and Britain had encouraged FranceAgriMer. FranceAgriMer's revised outlook for the soft wheat stock levels at the end-of-season on June 30 was influenced by the increased export forecasts. The stocks are forecast to be 2.63 million tonnes, down from 2.81 million last month. This is nearly 18% less than last season. FranceAgriMer has reduced the end-of-season stocks of barley from 1,29 million to 1,16 million tons, reflecting an increase in export forecasts. The French barley exports have been boosted due to a surge of sales in North Africa and the Middle East. Traders cited a lack of barley available in the Black Sea rival export zone. The office has also raised its forecast for 2024/25 Maize stocks to 3,47 million tons, up from the 3.39 million tons projected last month. A second upward revision to harvest supplies offsets an expected increase in exports within EU.
OPEC+ faces a loss of control if it delays its output further: Bousso
OPEC, along with its allies, is faced with a difficult decision: Should they begin lowering the oil production cap even though crude supply and demand are unlikely to improve anytime soon? The OPEC and its allies may choose to delay this crucial moment in order to maintain prices, but they risk losing market control.
In April, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major producers, including Russia, will begin to slowly unwind years of production restrictions.
After a series cuts since 2022, the group has held back 5.85 million barrels of production per day, or 5.7% of global consumption.
Due to the persistently low oil demand and growth of global crude production, the rollback of 2.2 millions bpd, announced in November for 2024's first quarter, has been delayed five different times.
Unfortunately, the market is not likely to improve significantly by April.
It may even get worse, as the increasingly fractious relations between the United States of America and other major economies will weigh on demand for oil.
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has urged Saudi Arabia, OPEC de-facto leader to lower oil prices. Trump's discussion with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, and the bilateral U.S. - Russia talks that followed in Saudi Arabia, have raised speculations about a possible ceasefire in Ukraine as well as a possible easing of U.S. restrictions on Moscow's huge oil production.
DISCIPLINE
OPEC+'s members have been able to maintain relative stability on the oil market in recent years largely due to their discipline. Benchmark Brent crude has remained in the range of $70-$100 a barrel, except for a few volatile months that followed Moscow's invasion.
OPEC has seen its market share and ability to control the market steadily decline as non-member producers increased their output. Drillers in the Permian deposits of Texas and New Mexico have seen their output soar in recent years that the United States is now the top producer in the world.
This month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for U.S. crude oil production to a record 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025. Although the rate of growth has slowed, it is expected that production will remain constant for many years.
The EIA predicts that global oil production will grow by 1.6 millions bpd in 2025, with the United States, Canada and Brazil leading this growth.
Meanwhile, tensions are rising within the alliance.
Chevron's $48 billion expansion at Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field is expected to achieve production of 260,000 barrels per day by the end February, four months earlier than planned. This will bring total production up to 1,000,000 barrels per day. To meet its production goal, the central Asian country would have to significantly reduce its output, resulting in a loss of revenue.
Nigeria has increased production in the last few months. Kurdistan, Iraq's semiautonomous region, could soon resume its 300,000 barrels per day oil exports after a two-year dispute.
After years of investment, the United Arab Emirates (a close ally of Saudi Arabia) is also increasing its capacity. Gulf State has reached a capacity of almost 5 million barrels per day, as opposed to the current official production levels of 3.2 millions bpd. This year, the quota will increase by 300,000.
Tough Choices
According to the International Energy Agency, the growth of the oil supply in 2025 will outpace the global demand for oil, which is forecast to increase by 1.1 millions bpd, after gaining 870,000 bpd last year.
OPEC's global oil inventory trends are slightly more positive, but still not very much. If production does indeed exceed demand, then stocks should begin to rise this year. More OPEC+ supply would only accelerate the build-up.
OPEC+ is thus faced with a difficult choice. The upside of further delays in the unwinding of cuts is limited, since significant spare production capacity already helps maintain stable oil prices by providing a market buffer. Holding back production increases economic pressures for producers who are growing their capacity within a group.
Trump could be irritated by a delay.
On the other hand however, an increase in production on a market that is well supplied could result in a drop of oil prices.
OPEC+ could decide to delay again, but that decision will have consequences. The group's credibility and market share may suffer even further.
** The opinions here are the columnist's, who is an author for **
(source: Reuters)