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Asia most likely to benefit from cheaper Canadian, Mexican oil if Trump enforces tariffs

Oil producers in Canada and Mexico will likely be required to decrease prices and divert supply to Asia if U.S. Presidentelect Donald Trump imposes 25%. import tariffs on unrefined imports from the 2 countries, traders. and analysts said.

2 sources familiar with Trump's strategy informed Reuters that oil. would not be exempted from possible tariff hikes on imports. from Canada and Mexico even as the U.S. oil market has actually cautioned. the policy might harm consumers, market and national security.

The United States represents 61% and 56% of crude exports. from Canada and Mexico, respectively, ship tracking data from. Kpler showed.

Canadian crude exports have actually jumped 65% to about 530,000. barrels per day (bpd) so far this year, the data revealed, after. the opening of the broadened Trans-Mountain pipeline increased. shipments to U.S. and Asia.

The Canadian manufacturers, if they deal with export restraints, if. they're unable to re-route their barrels that previously were. exported to U.S. to other markets, might face deeper discounts and. may likewise suffer some revenue losses, Daan Struyven, co-head of. international products research at Goldman Sachs, informed press reporters on. Wednesday.

Canada and Mexico export generally heavy high-sulphur crude. that is processed by complex refineries in the U.S. and the majority of. Asia.

The impact is all on the heavy grades. What are the U.S. refiners going to do? Even Saudi Arabian Heavy crude is. limited, a Singapore-based trader stated, including that some U.S. refiners can only receive crude via pipelines, restricting their. alternatives for imports.

Either the producer or the refiner will need to soak up. the tariffs, he said, including that Canadian manufacturers will have. to discount their oil more to attract demand from Asian refiners. and cover long-distance shipping costs.

Refining sources in Asia and analysts stated they anticipate to. see more Canadian and Mexican oil heading to Asia if Trump. enforces the tariffs.

We are most likely to see rather some volume going to China and. India, where refiners' configurations are able to refine the. crude, stated LSEG analyst Anh Pham.

TMX exports to Asia have actually increased in current months as Asian. refiners led by Chinese processors evaluate the brand-new grades. Nevertheless,. Mexican exports are down 21% to about 860,000 bpd this year.

Still, some traders and Goldman Sachs experts remain. sceptical that Trump would actually enforce the tariffs, which he. has actually formerly used as a negotiating tool, as doing so would. drive inflation for U.S. consumers and refiners.

(source: Reuters)