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MORNING QUOTE EUROPE-BOJ brings yen into sharper focus

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.

It was delegated the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to end central. lender week by not doing anything on rates, though it did bring the. yen into sharper focus.

BOJ statements can be rather Delphic, so their latest was. mercifully short at five paragraphs of plain prose, including. 8 uses of moderate or reasonably to explain the. economic background.

One notable passage was at completion, where it highlighted. monetary and forex markets in a clear reference to. current ructions in stocks and the yen.

It noted that yen motions had actually become more likely to affect. costs, implying a weaker currency would add more to inflation. than in the past and, most likely, that may not be welcome. anymore.

That sufficed to nudge the yen a bit higher to 142.30. per dollar, however it's still down large for the week. EURJPY is up. 1.7% for the week and the Aussie up 2.6%, so perhaps bring trades. are back on the menu.

Markets will have to wait up until BOJ Guv Ueda's presser. at 3:30 p.m. (0630 GMT) to divine more on the outlook for. tightening up, especially whether the October conference is live for. a hike.

Markets have just 3 basis points of tightening priced in for. October, though that is nearly 6 weeks away so there's plenty. of time for things to alter. A lot of experts polled . favour December for a hike of 25 basis points, though the market. still just has 7 bp in the cost.

The Nikkei was mainly unfazed and up 1.9% at the time of. composing, while much of Asia tracked Wall Street's overnight. rally, still indulging in the Fed's outsized rate cut.

Previously, China's reserve bank shocked markets by not. cutting its prime rates, then had to intervene in forex markets. to stop the yuan from rising too fast past 16-month highs.

Optimists argued the hold-up was so rate cuts might be. consisted of in a big stimulus bundle, but there's been talk of. such a bundle in the works since the pandemic and none has. materalised. Others suspect the PBOC is more concerned by. falling bond yields and bank revenue margins and will need to. ease reserve requirements first.

And a last word on the yield curve. For 2 years the. inverted curve allegedly signified certain economic crisis, even as. U.S. growth ran above pattern.

Now its the dis-inversion of the curve that economic. orthodoxy states implies a recession is inevitable, even as. consumers keep costs, weekly unemployed claims hit their least expensive. considering that May and the rather trusted Atlanta GDPNow measure points. to Q3 growth of 2.9%.

You can't have all of it ways, and perhaps the curve isn't. infallible.

Secret developments that might affect markets on Friday:

- UK August retail sales, Canada retail sales, German. PPI, EU consumer self-confidence

- Speech by Catherine Mann, external member of the BoE MPC

- Discussion in between ECB President Christine Lagarde and. Kristalina Georgieva, Handling Director IMF

- Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick. Harker speaks

- Bank of Canada Guv Tiff Macklem provides speech

(source: Reuters)