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MORNING quote EUROPE-On alert for yen intervention, United States inflation

A look at the day ahead in European and worldwide markets from Wayne Cole.

It's been a slightly risk-off start to the week with most share indices at a loss, the dollar up and Treasury yields down a touch, though there was no apparent driver for the moves.

The dollar got as far as 159.94 yen in early trading sparking the normal cautions from Japanese authorities against extreme volatility, shorthand for an intervention alarm. The 160.00 level is viewed as a red line for the Japanese given they intervened in late April when the dollar reached 160.245.

The yen's weak point adds to imported inflation and puts pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to more unwind its super-easy policies. Minutes of the reserve bank's last conference validated there was much discussion about tapering its bond buying and nudging rates greater.

The constant decline in the yen is also rippling throughout emerging markets, putting Asian currencies under stress as they require to drop to keep exports competitive. The Chinese yuan is up more than 10% on the yen up until now this year and near its greatest since 1992, a major factor experts suspect Beijing is massaging its own currency lower in time.

Geopolitics likewise loomed big, with the first U.S. governmental debate on Thursday and the first round of voting in the French election at the weekend.

A viewpoint poll out over the weekend revealed France's far right National Rally (REGISTERED NURSE) celebration and its allies were leading the preliminary of the nation's elections with 35.5% of the vote.

The major data difficulty for the week will be the U.S. individual intake expenses (PCE) price index on Friday which really requires to be benign to keep the market betting on a. September rate cut.

The core is seen slowing to a three-year low of 2.6% y/y,. from 2.8%, with a series of 2.5% to 2.8%. The benign CPI/PPI. reports have the market counting greatly on 2.6% or lower, so an. upside surprise would truly hurt.

Analysts also warn that a run of really soft PCE numbers. from the 2nd half of in 2015 will be dropping out in coming. months making it difficult to conquer the base impact. Fed chief. Powell cited that factor for why the average dot plot saw core. PCE still at 2.8% by the end of this year.

Key advancements that could influence markets on Monday:

- Ifo German company climate survey, UK CBI. Trends Orders for June

- ECB Board members Claudia Buch, Edouard. Fernandez-Bollo, Isabel Schnabel and Elizabeth McCaul all speak

- Appearances by Federal Reserve's Austan Goolsbee, Mary. Daly and Christopher Waller. Bank of Canada Guv Tiff. Macklem speaks

- Dallas Fed manufacturing index for June

(source: Reuters)