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China's imports of iron ore are rising even as steel is struggling: Russell

China's imports of iron ore are rising even as steel is struggling: Russell

China's imports of iron ore are expected to be their highest month in this year in June, a sign of resilience not reflected in the steel industry's sluggishness.

According to analysts LSEG & Kpler, China is expected to import nearly 110 million metric tonnes of this key raw material for steel.

Kpler estimates that 109.56 millions tons of cargo will arrive in June, while LSEG predicts 109.1million.

It would be the highest month ever since December, when 112.49 millions tons was recorded as the second-highest monthly imports.

Why are Chinese steel mills, traders and steel producers buying more iron ore despite the fact that both domestic and international headwinds are causing the steel industry to slow down?

Early in June, spot iron ore prices fell to their lowest level in eight months.

Since the peak of $107.81 per ton in 2025 on February 12, the trend for iron ore futures at the Singapore Exchange has been downward.

On June 18, they dropped to $94.17 per ton, the lowest level since September 30, before slightly recovering to finish at $94.30 a ton Wednesday.

It's too late for the low of June to affect imports in this month. The lag between cargoes being arranged and delivered is too great. However, it's important to note that the Singapore price continues to drop steadily from its previous peak at the end of May.

Restocking inventories may also have contributed to the higher imports of June. These stocks have been on a downward trend.

SteelHome consultants SteelHome monitor port stockpiles In the week ending June 6, exports fell to their lowest level in 16 months, at 132 million tonnes.

The strong imports so far in this month helped boost inventories to a total of 133.4 million tonnes in the week ending June 13. However, this is still below the 146.6 millions from the same period in 2024.

Iron ore imports may continue to grow in the coming weeks but there are questions about how long they can do so if the steel industry is weak.

STEEL SAGS

According to data released by the Chinese government on June 16, China's steel production dropped dramatically in May, falling 6.9% from last year to 85.55 millions tons.

In the first five month of this year, steel production fell 1.7% to 431.63 million tons.

The state-backed China Iron and Steel Association said last week that the output was expected to drop 4% from 2024 this year.

China's steel production is being affected by the struggles of its key property sector. This sector has shown little signs of improvement since the recent stimulus measures.

China's new house prices dropped 0.2% in May, after showing no growth during the preceding month. Calculations based on the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on 16 June were able to confirm this.

The latest statement from Donald Trump suggests that up to 55% of all imports will be taxed.

The price of steel has also fallen. On Wednesday, Shanghai Exchange rebar contract prices ended at 2,982 Yuan ($414.74) per ton, down 14% since the year's peak, which was 3,466 Yuan on February 5.

On June 3, the contract dropped to 2,912 Yuan per ton, its lowest level since February 2020.

Exports grew almost 10% on an annual basis in May, to 10,58 million tons.

Steel exports for the first five month of the year rose by 8.9%, to 48.47 millions tons. This is a record.

China's steel exports may be a victim of its own success, as other countries increase their protectionist measures. India and the United States are two recent examples.

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These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)