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US factory production drops in August, but outlook is clouded by rising prices

The US factory output unexpectedly dropped in August. Higher oil prices and increasing interest rates may have offset some of the benefits of an artificial intelligence buildout. This will likely keep activity low for the remainder of the year.

The Federal Reserve reported on Friday that output had declined after seven consecutive months of growth. US central bank raised interest rates for the first time since three years on Wednesday. It also warned that borrowing costs would continue to rise in the months to come. The oil prices are above $100 per barrel and there is no end to the US-Israeli conflict with Iran in sight.

Samuel Tombs is the chief US economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics. He said: "Looking forward, we believe manufacturing output will increase a little more over the coming months, but it will not match the pace of the first half this year." Some manufacturers will likely find that the demand for their products softens when they pass higher energy prices on to consumers.

The manufacturing output fell by 0.3% in August after a 0.2% increase that was not revised. The economists polled had predicted that production would rise by 0.3%. In August, output increased 0.9% year-over-year. According to some economists this modest growth indicates that the Trump administration’s aggressive trade policies have not rejuvenated the nation’s industrial base.

The sector's production, which represents 9.4% of GDP, has seen a surge in recent months, as companies rushed to place orders in order to avoid shortages and higher prices due to the Middle East war.

The production of durable manufactured goods dropped by 0.5% in August.

The production of motor vehicles and their parts fell by 1.2% in the second consecutive month. Computers and peripheral equipment production fell by 1.4% but increased by 5.5% year-over-year. The production of communications equipment grew by 0.8%. Although semiconductors and electronic components?production?dipped by 0.1% from a year ago, this category increased 12.4%.

The AI spending spree cushioned manufacturing import tariffs. Some economists still believe in a strong performance in manufacturing this year despite the recent sharp increase in US Treasury yields and the Fed's decision of raising its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis point to 3.75%-4.00%.

POSSIBLE TAILWIND FROM HIGHER Defense Spending

Bernard Yaros is the lead U.S. economics at Oxford Economics. He said: "We are still expecting manufacturing activity to increase through next year. The AI infrastructure buildout plays a major role in our optimistic outlook." The demand for AI is still strong enough to withstand higher rates for longer and geopolitical risk. Increased defense spending is also a tailwind.

Businesses that have been running out of inventory for five consecutive quarters could also boost manufacturing by restocking their inventories to meet a robust demand. However, some economists argue that this trend may be overshadowed due to rising costs.

The production of nondurable goods was unchanged in August after a 0.4% drop. The rise in textile production, apparel and leather goods were offset by the decline in plastics and rubber products and in petroleum and coal.

Christopher Rupkey is the chief economist of FWDBONDS. He said that the factory output has begun to show signs of a decline. This could get worse if geopolitical factors intensify, and diesel prices don't drop.

The White House Economic officials have said that higher diesel prices could start to undermine the picture of a manufacturing renaissance painted by White House economists.

Last month, mining production increased by 0.1%, matching July's increase. Oil and gas drilling increased by 0.9%, after increasing by 5.2% in the previous month. Utilities output jumped 1.8%, after a 0.5% increase in July.

The overall industrial production remained unchanged in August, after gaining 0.2% during July. In August, industrial output increased 1.4% year-over-year. The capacity utilization rate for the industrial sector - a measure of how firms use their resources - remained unchanged in August at 76.3%. This is 3.1 points below the average for 1972-2025.

The manufacturing sector's operating rate fell by 0.3 percentage points, to 75.7%. The operating rate is 2.5 percentage points lower than its long-term average.

Carl Weinberg is the chief economist of High Frequency Economics. He said, "There's no evidence that tariffs are creating new jobs for manufacturing or industry."

(source: Reuters)