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Diesel prices in the world hit record levels, and further increases are possible

The price of diesel has risen to record levels in Europe and the United States as the wars in Iran, Ukraine and Russia have severely cut exports by some?of the?largest producers, such as Russia and Saudi Arabia, and there are few options to stop further gains.

The price of diesel futures in Europe reached a record high last week, having more than doubled their value at the start of 2026. This was after supply disruptions reached the Red Sea where Saudi Arabia loads the majority of its diesel.

Refineries around the world are working hard to produce fuels, despite the damage caused by the wars in the Middle East. According to the International Energy Agency, in the United States, for example, refineries were operating at their highest level in 8 years by late August.

In a Monday newsletter, the International Energy Agency stated that "many refineries are already stretched to capacity". This leaves very few options available to prevent further supply constraints and price increases in the months ahead.

According to Kpler shipping data, Middle East diesel exports decreased by half from March to August, compared with a year ago, and averaged 800,000 barrels of fuel per day. Kpler data revealed that the Middle East will supply nearly 41% (or more) of Europe's imports of diesel in 2025.

George Shaw, Kpler analyst, said that any further disruption of Red Sea flows could tighten an already stretched global market for diesel. He added that the global?diesel market remains vulnerable because refining capacity is still the main pinch point.

RUSSIA’S REFINERIES BANNED FOR DIESEL EXPORTS

In July, Russia banned diesel exports as a result of drone attacks by Ukraine that reduced Russian refinery production.

Ukraine and Russia continue to attack each other's infrastructure, despite the announcement made by Donald Trump, U.S. president last week. He said that both countries had agreed to cease their attacks. On Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced that he would meet Trump in the next few days.

Before the ban on diesel imports, Russia was the second largest diesel exporter in the world after the United States. It supplied large volumes of diesel to Turkey, Brazil, and other countries.

In Europe - historically a net importer of diesel - stocks at the key refining and storage hub of Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp were at their lowest level for this time of the year on September 10, according to data from Insights Global.

US RETAIL DIEL PRICE HITS RECORD HIGH

For the first time in history, average U.S. retail diesel prices rose above $6 per gallon this month.

Even though refineries have been running at near-full tilt, inventories remain below normal seasonal levels. Diesel stocks, which rose by 600,000 barrels in the past week, remain at 96.97 millions barrels, nearly 15% lower than the average of the last five years.

ASIAN DIESEL CLOSES TO RECORD

Diesel prices in Asia are near record highs due to Middle East and Russian supply disruptions.

The benchmark for Asian Diesel, diesel swaps has slipped from a record high in March of over $200 per barrel to hovering around $180 per barrel on September 18th. The current levels are still twice as high as pre-war prices.

China's lower exports of diesel?following the Iran War likely tightened the global supply, as the country's shipments decreased by 26% from April to June compared to the same period a year ago due to the government's decision to limit refined products exports.

China's exports of diesel recovered in August to their highest level in almost 2.5 years (320,000 bpd), leading to lower stocks in the country.

(source: Reuters)