Latest News

Gasoline prices likely to rise in August for US consumers

Gasoline prices likely to rise in August for US consumers
Gasoline prices likely to rise in August for US consumers

U.S. consumer price increases are likely to accelerate in August, as gasoline prices?rebound after two consecutive monthly declines. This would confirm financial market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike next week.

Labor Department's upcoming Consumer Price Index report will follow the Producer Price Index, which was released on Thursday. The Producer Price Index is the measure of inflation that the U.S. Central Bank uses to track its 2% inflation target.

The Fed Governor Christopher Waller said at a NEXT Newsmaker Event that he would be inclined to maintain rates if the data showed that inflation pressures had cooled.

Economists predicted that inflation would remain high and continue to spread as oil prices climbed back over $100 per barrel. Some economists saw price pressures continuing due to tariffs on imported goods, including the most recent against?Canada, a top US trade partner.

What was once thought to be temporary reasons for high inflation now appears to be persistent. Joe Brusuelas is chief economist at RSM. He said that the war-induced energy crisis has now been going on for seven months, with no end in sight.

The impact of tariffs, which was thought to be a more one-time effect, has been more lasting as the administration continues to use tariffs to achieve its political goals in a haphazard manner.

A survey of economists has predicted that the CPI increased by 0.4% in August after increasing by 0.1% in July. Consumer inflation was expected to have risen 3.4% in the year up until August, a similar gain as July. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that gasoline prices in August averaged $4.192 per gallon, up from $4.064 a month earlier.

Food prices are expected to rise moderately over the next month, but year-on-year increases will likely be around 3.0%.

The frustration over rising prices, particularly for gasoline and foods, has caused a sharp decline in the approval rating of President Donald Trump and could cost him control of his Republican Party in November's midterm elections.

A TAME CORE CPI REASONABLE READING IS EXPECTED

The CPI, excluding volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to increase by 0.2% following a similar rise in July. Rents, clothing prices and new vehicles are among the categories that would be reflected in the tame increase in core CPI inflation.

The higher cost of jet fuel is likely to have kept the price of airfares high.

The core CPI is expected to increase by 2.4% in the 12 months through August after rising 2.5% in July. The core PCE is below the CPI. After Thursday's PPI, economists estimated that August's core PCE index would range from a gain of 0.15% to a gain as high as 0.28 percent. Core PCE inflation increased by 0.2% in July.

The estimates for the increase in core PCE inflation year-on-year ranged between 3.2% and 3.3%. Core PCE inflation?advanced by 3.3% over the past 12 months, up to July. Some economists believe that the August PCE report could include changes in the methodology which will lower the core rate of inflation by a few basis points.

According to CME's FedWatch, the financial markets priced in an approximately 70% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting on September 15-16. Fed's overnight benchmark interest rate currently ranges between?a 3.50-3.75%. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said last month that the central bank would "have to work" if they don't gain the confidence needed to believe inflation will fall to 2%.

Trump has been urging the Fed to lower?rates. He posted on social media "LOWER THE RATES OR I'LL STOP TRADES WITH COUNTRIES WHERE WE HAVE A DEFICIT." The rise in yields for long-term U.S. Government bonds has been blamed by economists on what they call political intimidation. Some people expected the Fed would tighten its policy on Wednesday in order to demonstrate its independence.

John Ryding is the chief economist at Brean Capital. He said, "A rate increase by the Fed on 16 September would be a strong declaration underlining the institution's independent. I expect them to do that, even without knowing the August inflation figures."

(source: Reuters)