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FOREX Dollar gains as oil and yield increases raise inflation fears

FOREX Dollar gains as oil and yield increases raise inflation fears
FOREX Dollar gains as oil and yield increases raise inflation fears

The dollar gained on Tuesday, as renewed U.S. - Iran hostilities sent the oil prices higher. This fueled?inflation fears and sparked a global 'bond saleoff.

After the first direct attack in a week, U.S. president Donald Trump has threatened to strike again against?Iran?. This has pushed oil prices over 2% higher.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note reached its highest level since January 2025.

Karl Schamotta is the chief market strategist for Corpay. He said that the dollar was rising as a result of the hostilities between Iran and the U.S., which increased inflation risks and raised the possibility of rate hikes.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh had been seen as adopting a hawkish tone in his monetary policy. Warsh's first speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium was his strongest hint to date that more rate hikes may be necessary to control price pressures.

Fed funds futures trader now price in 68% odds that a rate hike will occur this September, up from 35% prior to Warsh's Friday comments.

The Fed's meeting on September 15-16 will be largely determined by the August jobs and inflation data. Central bank increases next month.

According to economists polled, the median estimate for Friday's employment report is that employers added 56,000 new jobs in January.

Fed Governor Michael Barr stated on Tuesday that the U.S. Central Bank will have to raise interest rates if inflation doesn't cool down quickly.

U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said, on the other hand, that U.S. Bond yields show that inflation expectations have "flattened to down", and that they reflect an accelerating U.S. economic growth.

The dollar index (which measures the greenback against a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) rose by 0.16%, to 99.57. Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.15%, to $1.1599.

The dollar fell 0.07%, to $1.3538.

The Yen WEAKENS

The Japanese yen dropped 0.22%, to 160.08 dollars.

Bessent, who believes that the Japanese government and central banks will take actions to make the yen stronger, said on Monday that he would support the Japanese currency. Bessent's remarks could effectively lock in the BOJ to raise rates this September.

The dollar is still favored by the large?interest rate difference between the U.S.

Joel Kruger is a market strategist with LMAX Group, London. He said that investors are still focused on Japan's "still-unfavorable" rate differential with the United States. They also have doubts about how aggressively Bank of Japan policy will be tightened.

The rare joint 'intervention' by the U.S., Japan and other countries at the end of July was a short-lived boost for the fragile yen. It pushed it away from its 40-year-low of 163,99, but since then, the currency has lost around half of what it gained from this joint action.

When asked by journalists about the increase in bond yields, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Catayama stated that the government would continue to have a close dialogue with the markets.

(source: Reuters)