Latest News
-
Gold's record rally: Who's keeping it moving?
On Monday, gold prices reached a record of $3,728 for a troy ounce, continuing a rally which has seen them double since late 2022. The demand is expected to be robust for a while due to various factors. The main drivers are central bank purchases, strong investment demand visible in the inflows of physical gold exchange traded funds and U.S. president Donald Trump's reversal of Western security policies, his trade wars and concerns over the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Will central banks continue to buy more? Metals Focus estimates that central banks will buy 900 tonnes of gold this year, double the average annual purchase of 457 tonnes between 2016 and 2021. After Western sanctions frozen roughly half of Russia’s official foreign currency reserve in 2022, developing countries seek to diversify away from the dollar. According to World Gold Council, a trade body, the official numbers reported to IMF only reflect 34% of total central bank gold demand estimates for 2024. In 2022-2025 they will account for 23% of the total annual demand for gold, which is double the share in the 2010s. Will the drop in the jewelry sector continue? According to the WGC, demand for gold jewellery, which is the primary source of physical demand for the metal, dropped 14% in the second quarter 2025 to 341 tonnes, the lowest level since the pandemic-ravaged third quarter of 2010. High prices discouraged buyers. The WGC estimates that high prices were the main cause of the decline. Most of the market share came from China and India, whose combined market shares fell below 50% only for the third time in five years. Metals Focus estimates that the production of gold jewellery will fall 9% by 2024 to 2,011 tonnes and will experience a 16% decline this year. DO PEOPLE STILL PURCHASE SMALL GOLD COINS AND BARS? The retail investment market has seen a significant shift in consumer preferences for products, but overall purchases remain strong. According to the WGC's report, coin purchases fell 31% in 2024 while investment demand for gold bars increased 10%. Metals Focus anticipates a 2% increase in net physical investment this year, to 1,218 tonnes. The demand for metals remains strong in Asia amid expectations of positive prices. Can gold ETFs attract more inflows? According to the WGC, gold ETFs are now a major source of demand. They recorded inflows totaling 397 tons between January and June this year. This is their highest first-half inflow since 2020. The total gold ETF holdings at the end June reached 3,615,9 tons, the highest since August 2022. Five years ago, their record was 3,915 tonnes. Metals Focus anticipates net investment of 500 tons in ETPs by 2025, after seven tons inflows in the year 2024.
-
The ethylene boom in China could cause more problems for US and European chemical companies
China's rapid production ramp-up in ethylene – a component crucial for plastics and packaging, as well as construction – is expected to lower global prices, and put pressure on U.S., and European, chemical manufacturers who are already struggling with an oversupply of chemicals and weak demand. The domestic demand in China is also waning, as the property market continues to deteriorate amid an economic slowdown. Analysts said that this could result in a flood of Chinese ethylene on global markets, which would delay a price recovery. Vertical Research Partners estimates that the world's second largest economy has ethylene production capacity of more than 54 Mtpa. By 2030, this capacity is expected to increase by 9%, surpassing 75 Mtpa. Jim Fitterling, Dow CEO, said that China was "under pressure" to increase its capacity by 2030 at a Morgan Stanley Conference this month. As prices have fallen, profits for U.S. producers such as Dow, Celanese, and LyondellBasell are eroding. The European chemical industry is increasingly dependent on imports, due to high production costs and ageing plants. Garrie Li, of S&P Global Commodity Insights, says that China's refusal to cancel major projects during the recession has prolonged the slump. Demand growth will outpace capacity growth. Peter Vanacker, CEO of LyondellBasell, said that the rapid growth in China's petrochemical industry raises concern about overproduction on the global market. China's property market, which is a major consumer of petrochemicals, continues to be weak. Investment fell by 12% during the first seven-month period of 2025. Seth Goldstein, Morningstar analyst, said that if China's demand falls short of its capacity expansion then it is likely to export. This would put pressure on European production and North American capacities. S&P data revealed that China's exports of polypropylene jumped from 1.3 to 2.4 millions tonnes between 2023 and 2024. They could also reach 3.2-3.4 by 2026. Cefic (the European Chemical Industry Council) said that China's low cost model has made it the EU27’s largest chemical supplier. Shipments worth more than 19 billion euros ($19.97billion) were shipped in the first half 2025. Sylvie Lemoine, Cefic's Sylvie said that the risk of market flood is "real".
-
Wall Street is expected to open lower following Trump's visa crackdown. Rate outlook in focus
Wall Street opened lower on Monday, as investors were cautious about whether geopolitical worries could offset the Federal Reserve's loosening of monetary policy. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were both down about 0.3%. Donald Trump announced on Friday that U.S. firms would have to pay $100,000 in order to obtain new H-1B visas. This could be a blow for the U.S. technology sector, which is dominant. Investors can expect to hear from several Fed officials as the markets wait for the Fed's preferred inflation indicator on Friday. Luxury carmakers, regional banks and weak demand for EVs hampered Europe’s markets Monday. Porsche and Volkswagen's parent company both cut their profit estimates after delaying the launch of EVs. The euro zone banks are down about 1%, and Spain's Sabadell is down more than 3%. This comes after BBVA announced that it had increased its offer for the bank to 3,39 euros per share by 10%. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index fell 0.2%, with Spanish stocks down more than 1% and German markets down by 0.6%. MSCI's broadest world stock index was also little changed. India's benchmark stock index fell by 0.6% after Trump's announcements regarding new H-1B visas. India's $283-billion information technology sector will feel the impact in the short term. More than half of its revenue comes from the U.S. Trump also increased tariffs last month on Indian imports to up to 50% in part due to New Delhi purchasing Russian oil. Stocks in China were choppy, even though Trump claimed that he and Chinese president Xi Jinping made progress on a TikTok deal. The blue-chip CSI300 closed about 0.5% higher. FED POLICY A OUTLOOK Investors are still keen to assess the U.S. policy direction after the Fed announced a future phase of gradual easing. The traders have priced in 44 basis point easing for the last two policy meetings. The week will see a number of policymakers speak, including John Williams and Thomas Barkin on Monday and Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman and Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday. James Rossiter is the head of global macro-strategy at TD Securities. He hopes that these remarks over the next couple days will help shape market expectations. The Fed will release data on its preferred inflation gauge on Friday, which will help to set the tone of the rate outlook for the near term. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He believes that the PCE core price index will rise 0.2% monthly in August, keeping the annual rate at 2.9% and above the low of 2.6% it reached in April. Sycamore stated that the U.S. Dollar short trade is crowded, even though a shorter rate-cutting period should theoretically weigh on the U.S. Dollar. The dollar index, he added, has been losing its downward momentum after a tumultuous start. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. unit against six others) fell 0.3% to 97.48. The Japanese yen remained at 147.87 against the U.S. Dollar after strengthening on Friday, following Bank of Japan’s hawkish stance where two members of its board voted to keep interest rates unchanged. Brent crude futures fell 47 cents to $66.20 per barrel despite increased geopolitical tensions across Europe and the Middle East. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Futures dropped 31 cents to reach $62.37. Gold prices have risen, with the last increase of about 1.2%, reaching new record highs at over $3,726 an ounce. Reporting by Nell Mackenzie, Ankur Banerjee and Shri Navaratnam. Editing and proofreading by Jacqueline Wong.
-
Rio Tinto to sell scandium oxide to US agency for defense stockpile
The U.S. Defense Logistics Agency wants to purchase scandium oxide from Rio Tinto for up to $40,000,000 over the next five-year period to ensure supplies of this critical material to add to the nation's stockpile. Scandium, one of the rare-earth elements, has gained prominence in recent years, especially since China, its main producer, began imposing export controls. "Scandium was, up until recently, mainly sourced from China. China implemented export controls for scandium in late 2024. This constrained the supply and led to this acquisition by the National Defense Stockpile," DLA stated in a report published last week. The company plans to purchase 6.4 tons of scandium dioxide within the next five years. The first year, it will seek almost 2 tons of scandium oxide. This is equivalent to 5% of the global production last year, which was 40 tons. In August, the U.S. gave up to $10,000,000 to Elk Creek Resources (a unit of NioCorp) to increase the domestic supply of scandium. Currently, the U.S. Government must import the product used in many defense systems from abroad. The document stated that "Rio Tinto Services Inc. is the only vendor capable of meeting the government's product requirements at the required capacity for the contract." Rio Tinto stated that it would not comment commercially, but said it was "actively working with the U.S. Government to identify opportunities and leverage the available support in order to increase domestic production for the American Market and strengthen supply chain." Rio Tinto scientists developed the first process in 2020 that allows high-purity scandium dioxide to be extracted from waste streams produced during titanium dioxide production without any additional mining. Rio Tinto responded to an email asking for comments by saying that it was "uniquely positioned" to secure materials vital to America's future. Rio Tinto's Quebec facility, Canada, produced its first batch of scandium dioxide three years ago. It currently has a production capacity of about 3 tons per year. (Reporting and editing by Ros Russell; Polina Devlin)
-
Mali announces new mining deals in revised code
Mali approved seven agreements that will give the state more revenue through international and local mining firms. This is the latest effort by the military-led government to increase income from this sector. According to a late Friday statement, the Council of Ministers had approved the exploitation agreements and exploration agreements during its Friday meeting. This gave Mali a non-reducible, guaranteed stake in mining projects, with priority dividend access. The agreements cover gold mines such as the Sadiola project, operated by Allied Gold, B2Gold Fekola Mine, Resolute Mining Syama and Ganfeng Bougouni Project. Mali's ruling military class introduced a new code of mining in 2023. The new code increased royalties from 6.5% to 10%, while increasing state and local ownership to 35%. These latest agreements follow on from preliminary agreements that were signed between September 2024 and November 2024 with the same companies. Resolute Mining refused to comment. Allied Gold B2Gold Ganfeng and Ganfeng didn't respond to comments immediately. Endeavour Mining, along with other gold producers, has signed agreements that reflect the revised Mali mining code. Barrick Mining of Canada, however, is still locked in a longstanding standoff with the Government. This month, it was reported that a Barrick executive had changed sides and become an advisor to the president of Mali. The situation for Barrick has been further complicated by this change. Mali is Africa's largest gold producer, but the regulatory uncertainty has affected investment and output. (Reporting by Tiemoko Diallo Writing by Maxwell Akalaare Adombila Editing by Robbie Corey-Boulet and David Goode) The government has, like other governments in the region, emphasized resource nationalism, while shifting from Western investors towards courting Russian interest. (Reporting and writing by TiemokoDiallo Maxwell Akalaare Adombila, Editing by Robbie CoreyBoulet & David Goodman).
-
Timah's chief executive is optimistic that the company will meet its 2025 production target.
Restu Widiyantoro, the chief executive of Indonesia's state-run tin mining company PT Timah, told a parliamentary committee on Monday that despite a weak first half production, he is confident it will reach its target output of 21,500 metric tonnes this year. He said that a taskforce, which will crack down on illegal mining of tin in Timah’s mining zone, is expected to assist the company achieve its goal. Data from the company showed that in the first half of this year, Timah’s tin ore production dropped 32% on an annual basis to 6,997 tonnes, and its refined tin output fell 29% to 6 870 tons. Restu claimed earlier this year that illegal miners were to blame for the lower output than expected. Nur Adi Kuncoro, the company's director, said that heavy rains and delays with opening new mines had also an impact. Restu announced on Monday the creation of a taskforce to combat illegal mining in Indonesia's main tin-mining hub, Bangka and Belitung Island. The task force will also be targeting middlemen that buy ore illegally from illegal operators. Indonesia is the second-largest tin producer in the world after China. However, it has struggled to control illegal mining. The government has taken steps to combat illegal production and now requires that buyers and sellers trade refined tin via exchanges in order to improve the traceability.
-
The Gries Glacier in Switzerland is melting at an alarming rate
The Swiss glacier monitoring agency said that the 5.4-km-long Gries Glacier in Switzerland, which is a research focal point, is retreating alarmingly as climate change accelerates a nationwide ice melting unprecedented to date. Matthias Huss (Director of Glacier Monitoring Switzerland, GLAMOS) said: "This is a dying ice sheet." He noted that the depth of ice had decreased by six meters in just the twelve months leading up to September 2025. The glacier in southern Valais will shrink by 800 meters between 2000 and 2023. It is now 3.2 km shorter today than it was in 1880. The average thickness of the ice has increased to 57 metres. In May 2025, the grim reality of rapid melting glaciers was revealed when a devastating glacier collapse devastated the village of Blatten in the canton Valais. Huss blamed Gries Glacier melting on consecutive years of dryness in 2022 and 2023 and a hot summer of 2025, despite a momentary respite from heavy snowfall mid-April of 2025. "We would require much more snow in order to offset the effects of very warm summers." "This summer 2025 was also much too hot," Huss said. He said that at its lowest points, the glacier would melt in five years. However, at altitudes around 3,000 meters, it could take 40-50 years to disappear. According to GLAMOS, between 2016 and 2022, about 100 glaciers in Switzerland have disappeared. According to a recent report from the World Meteorological Organisation, the ice loss in almost all regions of the world has increased since the 1990s. This is mainly because summer melting has been stronger. For the third consecutive year, it found that every glaciated area on Earth had reported ice losses. (Written by Olivia Le Poidevin, Geneva; Edited by Alexandra Hudson).
-
Kuwait's oil capacity reaches 3,2 million barrels per day
In an interview with Kuwaiti newspaper Al Qabas, Oil Minister Tariq Al Roumi stated that Kuwait's crude production capacity is 3.2 million barrels a day. Multiple reports indicate that this is the highest capacity in over a decade. In 2010, it peaked at 3.33 million bpd before falling to less than 3 million bpd. Al-Roumi, a spokesperson for Al Qabas, said that Kuwait will increase its oil production under the OPEC+ deal to 2.559 millions bpd by October. On September 7, eight OPEC+ member countries agreed to increase output by 137,000 bpd for October. This is in line with the group's policy of increasing production gradually after years of cutting it. Al-Roumi noted that OPEC+ based their decision on the market's development, and that "accordingly, a decision to increase production could be paused, or reversed." He said that this ensured flexibility in the decision-making process, especially since meetings were held every month. This allows for faster responses to market conditions. The Minister said he is optimistic about achieving an equilibrium on the oil market. He added that the OPEC+'s decision to increase output has had a positive impact on the supply-demand dynamic since April. The International Energy Agency anticipates that consumption will grow by 740,000 BPD in 2025, and an additional 700,000. BPD in 2026. OPEC sees a demand increase of 1.3 million bpd this year and an additional 1.4 millions bpd in the following year. This is the largest gap between the two forecasts ever. Al-Roumi stated that the global oil demand has recovered, and crude inventories are now below their five-year average.
Saudi Arabian crude exports drop to a four-month low during July
Saudi Arabian crude oil exports fell to their lowest level since four months in July, according data released by the Joint Organizations Data Initiative on Monday.
The world's biggest oil exporter has seen its crude exports fall to 5,994 million barrels a day from 6,141 million bpd, the lowest level since March 20,25.
Saudi Arabia's crude production for July fell to 9.201 million barrels per day (bpd) from the 9.752 in June.
The data revealed that the crude throughput of Saudi refineries was 2.978 millions bpd. This is up 10% from June, when it was 2.703million bpd. Direct crude burning, however, decreased by 674,000 to 608,000 bpd.
JODI publishes the monthly export figures of Saudi Arabia, and other OPEC members.
Eight members of OPEC+ have agreed earlier this month to increase oil production in October by 137,000 bpd. This is a much smaller increase than the monthly increases in September and August of approximately 555,000 bpd and 411,000 bpd, respectively, and in July and June of 411,000 bpd.
Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq are the eight members. Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman is also a member.
The International Energy Agency has said that world oil supply is expected to rise faster this year. A surplus could grow in 2026, as OPEC+ member countries increase their output and the supply from outside of the group increases. (Reporting and editing by Anushree mukherjee, Bengaluru)
(source: Reuters)