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Copper prices rise after a sharp drop on hopes of progress in US-trade talks
Copper prices in London rose on Thursday, as optimism about progress in U.S. trade talks with China, the world's largest consumer of copper and other trading partners boosted metals. By 1027 GMT the benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange was up by 0.8% to $9,199 per kilogram, surpassing the resistance of its 21-day moving median at $9195. The metal used in construction and power, dropped 3.3% on Tuesday under pressure due to a steeper drop in the U.S. Comex contract, weak Chinese manufacturing activity, and trade uncertainty in light of U.S. tariffs. On Wednesday, U.S. president Donald Trump stated that he thought there was a very good chance his administration could reach a deal with China. A social media account associated with Chinese state-run media reported on Thursday that the U.S. had approached China to discuss Trump's tariffs of 145%. Neil Welsh, analyst at Britannia Global Markets, said: "However uncertainty remains, especially with the U.S. still reviewing potential tariffs on imports of copper and concerns about global growth that are not yet resolved." The trading volume was low on Thursday, as most European markets were closed for public holidays and the mainland Chinese markets were closed until Tuesday due to a five-day long holiday. The continued outflow of inventories from the LME registered warehouses supported copper in the short-term. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has recently reported a sharp drop in stock levels in warehouses. . Copper stocks in COMEX owned warehouses The price of copper rose by 50% in April, as traders diverted the metal from the traditional Asian markets to the U.S. to take advantage of the COMEX premium to the LME benchmark. Yangshan Copper Premium The price of copper, which is a measure of the demand for imported copper into China, increased 34% to $94 per tonne in April, reaching its highest level since late 2023. Cash copper prices are expected to reach $9,083 a ton by the third quarter 2025 according to a poll conducted on Wednesday. Analysts have raised their forecast for a market surplus in 2025 due to fears of volatile U.S. Tariff policies that could slow growth in China. Aluminium increased 0.8% to $2.417.50 per ton. Zinc rose 0.6%, to $2.608.5. Lead gained 0.1%, to $1.958.5. Tin fell 1.1%, to $31,015; and nickel dropped 0.6%, to $15,310. (Reporting and editing by Susan Fenton in London, Polina Devitt)
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Pentagon's AI Metals Program goes private to boost Western Supply Deals
The U.S. Department of Defense has transferred control of an artificial intelligence program created by the U.S. Government that predicts the supply and prices of critical minerals to a non profit organization, which is assisting miners and manufacturers in striking supply deals. The Open Price Exploration for National Security AI Metals program, launched by the U.S. Department of Defense in late 2023, is an effort to counter China’s sweeping control of critical minerals, as reported last summer. Rob Strayer is the president of the Critical Minerals Forum, which includes more than 30 mining firms, manufacturers, and investors, including Volkswagen. They will be the first users. Seth Goldstein is a Morningstar analyst who specializes in lithium. "Everyone wants more transparency when it comes to prices," he said. "Any tool, like the CMF, that could help is welcome." Members include South32, a copper miner, MP Materials, a rare earths producer and RTX - a defense contractor. CMF members met for the first time in November. Prior to this, the CMF and its membership had not been reported. The CMF, armed with an AI model, aims to reduce the reliance of manufacturers on China through the signing of more metal supply agreements with Western mines. This is according to over two dozen industry consultants and purchasing agents as well as analysts, regulators, and investors. They said the program represents one the boldest attempts to date to change the way certain metals are purchased and sold. The AI model is designed to determine the price of a metal after labor, processing costs and other costs have been taken into account. This will help buyers and sellers feel confident about a deal. Deals with the CMF have begun to form. Nevada officials said this week that they would be working with the CMF, and its AI model, to attract copper smelting in the state. As the U.S. only has two copper smelters, it imports almost half of its red metal demand. It has been questioned whether the program can actually achieve its goal of changing the way metals have traditionally been bought and sold. It is less aimed at metals with high volumes of trade, such as aluminum, and more towards metals that are lightly traded or those which have a lot of overproduction by some to try to influence market prices. The CMF model, for example, could help manufacturers predict available nickel supplies in the year 2028, if the U.S. imposed a 100% tariff against Indonesia, which is the world's top producer of the metal. This data could be used to help a manufacturer decide whether to invest in an American nickel mine, or to agree to purchase its future production. This would allow a manufacturer to obtain funding for the construction of a mine. The AI model would be used by the nickel buyer to negotiate a long term deal that ensured supply regardless of whether Chinese miner's increase production and lower market prices as they have in recent years. The CMF, with its AI model, assumes that a buyer will be happy to pay more than market price for metals if the supply is guaranteed. CHINA SQUEEZE CMF's entry into the complex metals market comes at a time when Beijing is restricting critical minerals exports. This type of market interference, according to CMF officials, underscores the necessity to build more U.S. mining and processing facilities in order to power the energy transformation. In recent years, the London Metal Exchange (LME) and other futures markets for nickel and cobalt have been dominated by Chinese miners who are operating at a loss to increase market share in Indonesia and Congo. Beijing has placed export restrictions on many essential battery minerals, such as rare earths (a group of 17 metals needed to produce magnets which turn energy into motion), germanium, and gallium. These minerals are rarely traded or not at all. The Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C., in response to a question about the CMF, stated that China manages their exports of rare Earths according to rules set by the World Trade Organization. Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the embassy, said that "China will continue working with other countries to share responsibility of global rare Earths supply." Volkswagen and other CMF members believe that the CMF helps to increase visibility in what can be a opaque supply chain for critical minerals. MP Materials and RTX didn't respond to comments. U.S. president Donald Trump has ordered his administration to collaborate with private developers in order to boost U.S. vital minerals production. This step could be helped by the data CMF is aiming to provide to markets, according to program officials. The president also has launched a study on potential tariffs for all U.S. mineral imports. Strayer said that the CMF, using its government connections to help connect mining projects with manufacturers and investors who need a more secure metals supply. Phoenix Tailings, a rare earths-processing startup based in Massachusetts, hopes that the CMF will help to create U.S. prices for minerals based on actual production costs. CEO Nick Myers. Myers stated that Phoenix intends to use the data provided by CMF in order to negotiate with potential clients, including manufacturers who are CMF members. Myers stated that in a sector which is opaque, the CMF is a tool to help get more information. Some market analysts do not believe that CMF's AI-model is revolutionary. Ian Lange is a mining economist at Colorado School of Mines. He said, "I have tried to say politely that I believe this is worthless." Lange compared the Pentagon AI model's goals with the larger and more complex global oil market. Can we better predict oil prices now than five year ago? No. Lange stated that machine learning is not helpful. 'ENCOURAGE MUCH MORE VISIBILITY The Pentagon is training its AI model using 70 data sets related to mining. It aims at guiding investment decisions for 15 years in advance based on unexpected market shocks, such as export restrictions. Officials said that FactSet, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, and other price providers, as well as the U.S. Commerce Department provide data. The CMF believes that it is the access to the analysis of this data, some of which are not publicly available, that sets apart the Pentagon AI program from ChatGPT and other AI programs. Officials said that the CMF costs the most in data. The Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency will fund the CMF for the next several years, while it decides whether or not to charge its members. According to the Pentagon, the model was developed by S&P Global and AI developer Charles River Analytics in collaboration with software firm Exiger, Metal Miner, as well as Exiger's partner, a price reporting agency. S&P Global declined comment. Charles River Analytics has not responded to our request for comment. Exiger believes that its data can be used to forecast the cost and availability of a particular material and improve supply chain visibility. CMF is a non-profit trade association, with a board made up of members. The CMF has a small staff of less than 10 people and does not disclose its budget. Officials said that DARPA has no representative on the CMF Board, but funds the program until at least 2029. They also plan to transfer the intellectual property of the AI model to the CMF before the start of 2027. Officials said that there are no plans for the CMF to become a for-profit organization, but in the future, the CMF may charge for access to data sets with greater detail. Strayer stated that the CMF will launch a campaign in order to attract new members, especially those from the semiconductor, aerospace and defense industries. The CMF will also offer free memberships for the next fourteen months, while the Pentagon finances data collection. CMF officials have said that foreign governments, such as Zambia, which is rich in copper, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (which is rich in cobalt), are considering joining the CMF to use its data. They also want to expand the program to include more countries to increase transparency on the metals markets. The Zambian and DRC Embassies of Washington, D.C., have not responded to comments. Western miners are increasingly demanding green premiums on their metals. These new agreements require market intelligence, which the CMF model is designed to provide. "Any mechanism which can provide better market modeling is clearly of enormous value," said Brian Menell. Menell is the CEO of TechMet and a member of CMF. The AI model adds another variable to the LME's equation, particularly as it struggles to compete with rivals from Chicago and Shanghai for market share in some niche battery metals. The LME declined comment. (Reporting and editing by Ernest Scheyder, Veronica Brown and Claudia Parsons).
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Berkshire surpasses the market as Buffett celebrates 60 years at the helm
Berkshire Hathaway's stock has done well during a turbulent year. This weekend, shareholders will seek reassurances from Warren Buffett to ensure that they are in good hands despite the tariff chaos disrupting corporate America. The 94-year old billionaire will celebrate 60 years of running the conglomerate he created, which now has a value of $1.15 trillion, at Saturday's annual gathering in Omaha, Nebraska. Buffett will spend four-and-a half hours answering shareholder questions. These typically center around Berkshire’s operating businesses, the markets, the economy and life lessons. Berkshire Hathaway Energy is one of the many businesses that Berkshire Hathaway operates. Other businesses include Dairy Queen and Fruit of the Loom as well as retro brands like Ginsu Knives and the World Book Encyclopedia. Many people use them as a proxy to represent the American economy. Berkshire shares, however, have beaten the Standard & Poor 500 by 18%. The index fell 5%. This gulf is likely more a reflection of the whipsaw effect from U.S. president Donald Trump's policy than a change in Berkshire's own attitudes. Some analysts view Berkshire’s $334.2 Billion year-end cash position, which, at current yields, could generate income of more than $14 Billion, as a cushion. Brett Gardner, the author of "Buffett’s Early Investments", a book that focuses on Buffett’s performance in decades past when it was significant. He added that Berkshire has many stable cash-flowing businesses which may not be affected as much as other companies. Berkshire stock's gain of over 6,400,000% in value since 1965 is largely due to the early outperformance. Berkshire's stock price has grown more than 6,400,000% since 1965, but it is now performing like the S&P. Tariff - Specified Price Buffett is quick to admit that expecting stellar performance over a long period of time would be foolish. Buffett stated at Berkshire’s 2013 annual shareholders meeting that "we cannot do as well in the future as we have done in the past." It gets harder as we grow. Buffett stated that a person with no knowledge of stocks or Berkshire and who has "no special feelings" about Berkshire, should purchase the index. In his shareholder letter of February 2024, Buffett stated that Berkshire should "do a bit better than average American companies" with a materially lower risk of capital loss, but anything beyond "slightly" better was "wishful hoping." Insurance is a major driver of Berkshire’s profit, accounting for 48% last year of the $47.4billion operating profit. Still, 53% of Berkshire’s 189 businesses saw their earnings fall last year. Trump's tariffs may also have a negative impact on some businesses. If imports drop, for instance, higher tariffs may reduce the cargo volume at BNSF. Even buying and selling houses is not immune. "Tariffs directly affect our business to the extent that they affect mortgage rates and the housing markets," said Chris Kelly. He is the chief executive of HomeServices of America. 'DUMBEST SHARES I'VE EVER BOUGHT.' Berkshire is also valued by its large portfolio of stocks including Apple and American Express. However, this portfolio was hurt during the April market crash. Jim Shanahan of Edward Jones & Co in St. Louis said that Berkshire was trading at a historic high 1,75 times the projected book value. He said: "We always thought Berkshire would be a good investment in times of volatility, but we did not anticipate this level." Buffett took control of Berkshire in 1965 after he was shortchanged by the management of a failing textile company when he tried to sell his shares back. He called Berkshire the "dumbest stock" he ever purchased, saying that he lost out on $200 billion in 45 years because he used it to invest in insurance rather than starting a brand new company. Buffett's success at Berkshire is due to his adoption of Charlie Munger's mantra, which was that he should buy fair businesses, not fair businesses, at wonderful prices. Gardner said Berkshire was "unable to move the needle" because of its size, but Buffett's track record as the best investor in history outweighed that for many. Planning for the Future The succession planning is mostly set. Since 2021, Vice Chairman Greg Abel who oversees the non-insurance business has been Buffett’s successor as CEO. Abel, Ted Weschler, Todd Combs (also CEO of Geico) or Todd Combs are all possible candidates to become chief stock pickers. Buffett's child Howard Buffett will become nonexecutive Chairman. Ajit Jain and Abel, the Vice Chairman who oversees the insurance business, will answer shareholder questions as well on Saturday. Shanahan hopes Abel will commit more of his net wealth to Berkshire and assure investors he will remain around for at least 10 years. Shanahan stated that many people consider retiring at the age of 62. Buffett wants to know, in particular, if the April market slump gave him an opportunity to purchase...something. He said that this would calm the markets. Consider the alternative. They could have sold $340 billion in cash, and been a net seller for April. This would be terrible for the markets."
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Adani Enterprises' fourth-quarter profits drop on weak coal trading
Adani Enterprises in India, the flagship of the Adani Group reported on Thursday a decline in its fourth-quarter profits, hurt by a weaker performance from its coal trading division. The company's profit before tax and exceptional items fell to 13,13 billion rupees (about $155.2 million) from 13,22 billion rupees in the previous quarter. The net profit for the company, however, grew more than eight times to 38.45 billion rupies, thanks to a 39.46 billion rupiah gain from a sale of a portion of its consumer products venture with Singapore-based Wilmar. Adani Group, the flagship company of the ports-to-power Adani Group, has expanded its new energy business to include solar manufacturing and wind-turbine businesses. Adani Enterprises, however, still has its coal trading division at the core of the business, which contributes to nearly a third of its total revenue. A decline in coal prices, and a lower demand for coal imported, led to a 47% drop in profits to 8.33 billion rupies. Revenue for the segment fell by 45%. Adani Enterprises overall revenue decreased 7.6% to 269,66 billion rupees. Pre-tax profits for the new energy segment grew by 92% in the first quarter to 9,94 billion rupees. This segment accounts for 13.5% of revenue.
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Congo lifts ex-President Kabila’s immunity after accusing him war crimes
The Democratic Republic of Congo is trying to strip Joseph Kabila of his immunity, so that he can be tried on charges of supporting M23 insurgents in the east of the country where the government hopes to draft a deal for peace this week. Kabila has been away from the country, mainly in South Africa, since late 2023. He announced last month that he would be returning to find a resolution to the crisis in eastern Congo, where M23 rebels backed by Rwanda have taken over large areas of the country this year. Kabila's return to Congo, where he has denied supporting rebels, may complicate an effort by the United States to put an end to the conflict in eastern Congo. This region contains minerals of great value that the administration of U.S. president Donald Trump is eager to mine. Justice Minister Constant Mutamba informed reporters in Kinshasa, on Wednesday evening, that the Congolese Army's Attorney General had asked the Congo Senate to revoke Kabila's immunity from prosecution as a Senator for life. Mutamba stated that the Congo had amassed "clear evidence" of "war crimes and crimes against humanity, as well as massacres of civilians and military personnel who were peaceful," adding that Kabila must return to Congo in order to be tried or face being tried absentee. A signed agreement in Washington, DC on April 25, states that Congo and Rwanda will come up with a peace draft by May 2, and will refrain from providing any military support to armed group. On Thursday, it was not clear if anything would be signed by Friday or what the conditions would be. Kabila took power in 2001, after the assassination of his father. He refused to step down after his last term officially ended in 2016. This led to violent protests before he agreed to leave the office following an electoral in 2018. The Interior Ministry suspended Kabila's political party last month. Meanwhile, the Justice Ministry announced that it would seize Kabila and his party leaders' assets. Ferdinand Kambere said that the attempt to lift Kabila’s immunity was a sign of the government’s fear for Kabila’s return. He blamed Felix Tshisekedi - a Kabila opponent - for the crisis in eastern Congo. (Reporting Sonia Rolley, Ange Kasongo and Jessica Donati Writing by Robbie Corey Boulet and Philippe Fletcher)
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BOJ adds to the growth gloom by causing stocks to stall and yen to slide
The world stock market was in a haze on Thursday following a contraction of the U.S. Economy. However, Wall Street pointed higher and the dollar rose as the Bank of Japan's growth forecast was cut due to U.S. tariffs on trade. This pushed the yen down. May Day was a public holiday in many parts of the world including Europe. This meant that trading was light but it wasn't boring. Wall Street made a sprint on Wednesday despite the U.S. Q1 GDP decline. Microsoft and Meta's strong earnings after-the bell helped to dampen some recent negativity surrounding "Magnificent Seven". The Nikkei, a tech-heavy index in Japan, followed suit with a surge in Asia. However, London's FTSE stalled out in Europe and this wasn't sufficient to keep MSCI 47-country global stock index from the red. U.S. futures pointed higher for later when trading resumes in the U.S. The price of gold, which has been soaring as investors fled for safety this year, fell to its lowest point in two weeks, as traders took advantage of the glimmers in the global war on trade. John Hardy, a Saxo Bank analyst, said that the move went to the core of recent questions regarding whether President Donald Trump’s radical overhaul of the post-World War Two order in the United States would bring an end to so-called “U.S. exceptionalism” on the markets. Hardy stated that "the recent narrative is the consensus of selling the dollar" and that it was a result of Meta and Microsoft's five-star performance yesterday. The Bank of Japan's decision to cut its forecasts on Thursday and the subsequent drop in the yen has added to this. He said that the gold price was down today as well, and all of these things were linked. The majority of Europe's bonds markets were closed on the holidays. The UK 10-year Gilt Yields, a proxy of borrowing costs, ticked down and the U.S. Treasuries yields were back at 4.15%. Analysts now price in four U.S. rate cuts for the rest of the year. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing data is due to be released later. The trade war was expected to have a negative impact on the data. Oil prices on the commodities market have stabilized at $61 per barrel, after plummeting on Wednesday due to the U.S. drop in GDP and indications that Saudi Arabia, which is the world's largest crude exporter, plans to increase production this year. Hardy, from Saxo Bank, said: "It'll be interesting to watch what happens if the drumbeat of bad data continues." (Reporting and editing by Mark Heinrich; Marc Jones)
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Vice-Prime Minister: The Spanish government should take over grid operators
Yolanda Diz, Spain's Vice-Prime Minister, said that the state should have 100% control over the Spanish grid operator. This was after Spain suffered its worst blackout. Red Electrica (REE) is owned by the government at 20% and private owners own the remaining. "REE" is a private company. Diaz told TVE in an interview that this situation was unacceptable. Diaz is also the Labour Minister and a member Sumar, a far-left party that is a junior partner of Spain's coalition Government. She said that the Socialist Party as the major partner did not agree with the idea of the state taking full control. The Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced that the government was investigating the power outage which caused trains to stop, airports to close and people trapped in lifts across the Iberian Peninsula on Monday. Two sources, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said that investigators from Spain’s cybersecurity agency, INCIBE and the CNI intelligence services will be seeking information from the grid operators and private energy companies as part of the investigation. This includes visiting their offices. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; reporting by Graham Keeley)
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Medvedev claims that Trump forced Kyiv into paying for US aid because of the Ukraine mineral deal.
Dmitry Medvedev, a senior Russian security official, said that President Donald Trump forced Kyiv on Thursday to pay for any future U.S. Military aid. The agreement, which was signed on Wednesday in Washington, gives the United States access to new Ukrainian mineral deals and funds investment in Ukraine's rebuilding. According to The Kyiv Post citing diplomatic sources the Trump administration informed Congress of its intent to approve the export of defense-related products into Ukraine via direct commercial sales exceeding $50 million, marking the first such step since Trump returned to the White House. Could not confirm immediately. "Trump has broken Kyiv's regime to the extent that they will be forced to pay for U.S. assistance with mineral resources," Medvedev wrote on Telegram, a former Russian President who is now the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council. He said: "Now (Ukrainians), they will have to buy military supplies using the wealth of a country that is disappearing." Medvedev was the president of Russia from 2008 to 2012 and once portrayed himself as a liberal pro Western moderniser. However, he has become one of the most vocal anti-Western hawks ever since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The agreement on minerals was reached as the U.S. grew increasingly frustrated with the refusal of Moscow and Kyiv, to sit down for peace talks. Moscow is prepared for direct talks and is open to an ongoing peace settlement. However, the complexity of the issues involved means that this process cannot be rushed. Kyiv has said it supports an immediate, unconditional ceasefire lasting at least 30days. Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, has stated that he is in agreement with this principle but that many questions need to be clarified. Putin announced a 3-day ceasefire from May 8-10 when Russia will celebrate the 80th anniversary since its victory over Nazi Germany during World War Two. The Kremlin said that Russia had enormous mineral wealth and hinted at potential deals with the U.S. It has not yet commented on the Ukrainian mineral deal. Sergei Markov said that the deal reached between Washington and Kyiv will make it more difficult for Russia to achieve peace in Ukraine by means of talks, because Trump has set up a system to "justify' new spending on the conflict. "The U.S. has begun to view itself as a kind of co-ownership of Ukraine." Markov predicted that the U.S. would take a pro-Ukrainian stance. Reporting by Andrew Osborn, Writing by Mark Trevelyan; Editing By Mark Trevelyan
Oil prices steady after US economic contraction and possible Saudi supply increase
The oil prices stabilized on Thursday, a day following a sharp decline caused by the signs that Saudi Arabia may increase its output, and data showing the contraction of the U.S. economy, the largest oil consumer in the world.
Brent crude futures dropped 6 cents or 0.1% to $61 per barrel at 0730 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures fell 12 Cents, or 0.2% to $58.09. WTI reached its lowest level since March 2021.
Sugandha Sasdeva, founder and CEO of SS WealthStreet in New Delhi, said that the "path of least resistance" remains to the downside.
Sachdeva stated that "the dual impact of deteriorating oil demand and looming expansion in supply has created a negative outlook for crude. Brent crude appears vulnerable to testing $55 per barrel." Sources say that Saudi Arabia has told allies and experts in the industry that it does not want to support the oil market by cutting supply and is able to manage a long period of low prices. Three people familiar with OPEC+ discussions have reported that several OPEC+ countries will propose the group increase output in June by a significant amount for a second month running. Eight OPEC+ nations will meet on 5 May to decide a plan for June's output. Sachdeva stated that "any surprise in the speed or scale of adjustments to production could have a significant impact on volatility in sessions ahead."
The U.S. economic contraction contracted for the 1st time in 3 years during the first quarter. Businesses rushed to import goods in order to avoid tariffs, which would have increased costs. This underscored the chaotic nature of President Donald Trump’s trade policy.
A poll suggests that Trump's tariffs make it likely the global economy will enter recession this year. An oil price drop is expected this year due to a demand outlook that's clouded by trade conflicts and OPEC+ increasing supply. This was revealed in a Wednesday poll. Kpler, an analytics firm, has revised their 2025 global oil consumption growth forecast from 800,000 barrels per day to 640,000 bpd. They cited rising Sino-U.S. tensions and weak Indian demand. In April, 40 economists and analyst predicted that Brent crude would average $68.98 per barrel in 2025 compared to the estimate of $72.94 in March. The analysts expect U.S. oil to average $65.08 per barrel, rather than the $69.16 last month. The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that U.S. crude stockpiles dropped by 2.7 millions barrels due to higher demand for exports and refineries. This was compared to analysts' expectations, which were based on a poll. They expected a 429,000-barrel increase. Reporting by Mohi Narayan from New Delhi, and Arathy Sommesekhar from Houston; editing by Shri Navaratnam & Christopher Cushing
(source: Reuters)