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The oil price plunges amid fears of a global trade war triggering recession

The oil prices fell more than 3% Monday, extending the losses of last week, as trade tensions between China and the United States escalated, stoking fears that a recession would lower demand for crude.

Brent futures fell $2.28 or 3.5% to $63.30 a bar at 0049 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures dropped $2.20 or 3.6% to $59.79. Both benchmarks reached their lowest levels since April 2021 at the session low.

Oil fell 7% on the Friday after China increased tariffs on U.S. products, intensifying a trade conflict that has caused investors to price in an increased probability of recession. Brent has lost 10.9% over the last week while WTI is down 10.6%.

Satoru Yushida is a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities. He said that the primary reason for the decline was the fear of tariffs affecting the global economy.

He added that retaliatory duties from other countries will also be a factor to watch.

Yoshida said that WTI might fall to $50 or even $55 if the stock market continues to decline.

China announced on Friday that it would add additional tariffs of 34% to American goods in response to U.S. president Donald Trump's tariffs. This confirms investor fears of a full-blown trade war and the risk of recession for the global economy.

Oil prices could be affected by Trump's new tariffs on imports of refined products, oil and gas. The policies could also stoke inflation and slow the economic growth.

Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve chair, said that Trump's tariffs were "larger than anticipated" and the economic fallout will likely be higher inflation and slower development.

Over the weekend, OPEC+ ministers emphasized the need to fully comply with oil production targets and asked overproducers submit plans to compensate for pumping excessive amounts of oil by April 15. (Reporting and editing by Nick Zieminski, Sonali Paul, and Yuka Obayashi)

(source: Reuters)