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Stock builds, Red Sea concerns pressure Asia diesel margins: Russell

The earnings margin for making diesel in Asia is coming under continual pressure from a glut of materials as major exporters increase shipments and less cargoes head to Europe because of concerns over shipping by means of the Red Sea.

The fracture spread, or revenue margin, of making a barrel of gasoil, the building block for middle distillate fuels such as diesel and jet kerosene, at a normal Singapore refinery ended at $20.33 a barrel on March 15.

This was down from the previous close of $20.87 a barrel and just above the eight-month low of $19.89, reached on March 13.

The margin is down 28% from the high up until now in 2024 of $ 28.26 a barrel, hit on Feb. 13.

The weak point comes as a number of indicators are flashing cautioning signs for diesel in Asia.

Stockpiles of middle distillates in Singapore, the local trading hub for refined fuels, rose 8% recently to reach the greatest given that September 2021 as net exports of diesel visited 98%, and those of jet fuel by 26%, according to main data released on March 14.

Total middle extract stocks in Singapore were 10.97 million barrels recently, up from 9.99 million the prior week, with stockpiles being boosted by an increase in arrivals from South Korea and China.

Despite the weakening fracture spread for gasoil, refineries in Asia still have some reward to export freights as a revenue margin of around $20 a barrel is still above the 2023 lows of about $11.

However the possibility of the crack spread dropping to match in 2015's lows are increasing, especially as more diesel heads into Asia and less towards locations west of the Suez Canal.

The attacks on shipping utilizing the Red Sea to transit the Suez Canal by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group have led some shippers to divert cargoes to go around the Cape of Good Hope, a. longer and costlier trip.

This has cut the volumes of refined fuels heading to Europe. from Asia, a circumstance intensified by declining European need. as the northern winter season ends.

WINDOW SHUT

LSEG Oil Research study stated in its latest report on Asia's. extract market that the East-West arbitrage window is firmly. shut with flows at three-year lows.

Just 140,000 metric lots of middle distillates went from. East Asia to the West in February, and so far for March just. 75,000 tons have been examined, LSEG stated.

India is also usually a significant shipper of diesel to Europe,. Deliveries in the very first quarter are likely to average 535,000. lots a month, which LSEG said will be the most affordable first-quarter. average given that 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic first hit.

India is instead sending more cargoes to Asia, with flows to. the area exceeding 700,000 heaps for both January and February,. the most because August.

Add in increasing exports from China and the outcome is greater. stocks in the Singapore hub.

Exports from Singapore to significant regional importers such as. Indonesia and Australia are also compromising, placing further. downward pressure on margins.

Overall middle extract deliveries to Asian buyers dropped to. 5.07 million lots in February, down from 5.94 million in. January, and LSEG vessel-tracking and port data indicate a. additional decline in March.

The factor that may restrict the decline in the middle. distillate profit margin is the upcoming refining maintenance. season in Asia, which will see several units taken offline,. generally in the second quarter.

This might limit exports in the region, however concerns remain. over whether enough supply will be curtailed to offset lower. shipments to Europe from Asian refiners.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist. .

(source: Reuters)