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California gasoline stock drops to record lows due to disruptions caused by Hormuz

Fuel prices are soaring across the country due to 'the war against Iran.' Analysts warn that California has not yet felt the full impact of supply disruptions caused by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the American Automobile Association, California motorists paid an average of $5.86 per gallon on Thursday, the highest price in the U.S. This is far higher than the national average of $4.09 per gallon.

Analysts say that because California relies heavily on Asian refined products, the supply crunch will worsen. This means California is among the first states in the U.S. who are likely to feel the effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure, which affects a fifth of world oil and gas.

The Energy Commission's Niki Woodard, spokesperson for the agency, said that the commission is in constant communication with the state refineries to ensure an adequate supply of transportation fuels during this volatile time of reduced supply due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The average state gasoline stock for the four-week period ended April 10 was 9.44 million barrels, the lowest since 2005. These inventories consist of California blend gasoline, blending ingredients and non-California gas.

Because it is not connected to the country's fuel pipelines it is more vulnerable to price shocks. This forces it to import from Asia where refiners refine Middle Eastern crude oil into gasoline and other products that are used on the U.S. West Coast.

According to AAA, the $5.86 average statewide represents a 26 percent increase since the start of the Iran War. California's gas prices are higher due to taxes and extra costs to produce the unique gasoline blend developed to reduce the smog which was once a common sight over Los Angeles.

DECLINE IN Inventory

Michael Mische, a professor at the University of Southern California wrote this week in an analysis that the full impact of decreasing gasoline and crude imports have not yet been seen in California's fuel systems. It takes about a month to ship refined products from Asia to California.

The analysis predicts that gasoline imports will drop sharply in the next two to three weeks. The analysis said that this will be the moment when the impact of the import shock is fully felt in the terminal supply, and ultimately at the pump.

Susan Bell, of Rystad energy, said that California's gasoline inventories may worsen over the next few weeks. California was once a major oil producer. However, in recent years the state has become more reliant on fuel and crude imports due to two refineries that accounted for 20% of California’s refining capability closing. According to the CEC, its crude oil inventory was 10.09 million barrels, a decrease of more than 23% compared to a year ago.

Woodard, a California refinery official, said that the refineries are using alternative sources of crude oil and gasoline to compensate for the loss in Middle East cargoes. "We do not predict a supply problem in the near future." The agency has enough stock to last until mid-May. Californians consume about 36 million gallons per day.

(source: Reuters)