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IMF chief: Middle East war leads to higher prices and slower growth

IMF chief: Middle East war leads to higher prices and slower growth
IMF chief: Middle East war leads to higher prices and slower growth

The head of the International Monetary Fund said on Monday that the war in the Middle East would 'lead to increased inflation and slower growth globally,' ahead of the upcoming?new forecast by the global lender next week. The conflict has caused 'the worst disruption to global energy supply ever', as millions of barrels of production have been shut down due to Iran's effective blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. This is crucial for shipping 1/5th of all oil and gas in the world. Kristalina Georgeieva, IMF managing director, stated that even if the conflict was quickly resolved, the IMF would reduce its economic growth forecasts and increase its inflation outlook. IMF will release a variety of scenarios for its World Economic Outlook, due on April 14. In a blog post on March 30, the IMF hinted at a possible downgrade, citing asymmetric shocks from the war and tighter economic conditions. IMF had expected that without the war its global growth projections would be slightly higher at 3.3% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027.

Georgieva said that "instead, all roads lead now to higher prices and a slower growth." She said that the?war had reduced global oil supplies by 13%. This has impacted oil and gas shipments, as well as supply chains for helium, fertilizer, and helium.

She said that even a relatively rapid end to hostilities, and a recovery fairly quick would result in "relatively little" revisions of the growth and inflation forecasts. The inflation and growth effects will be greater if the war is prolonged.

IMF Spring Meetings Await

Next week, the IMF and World Bank's spring meeting in Washington will be dominated by the war. Finance officials from all over the world are expected to attend.

Georgieva also noted that many countries have little fiscal room to support their population as a result of the rising prices caused by war.

Georgieva did not mention the countries that had requested funding assistance. She said that the IMF can augment existing lending programs in order to meet country needs. 85 percent of IMF members are energy importers.

Even energy exporters, like Qatar, are feeling the effects of Iranian attacks on their production facilities.

Georgieva stated that Qatar estimates it will take between three and five years to restore 17% of its natural gas production due to the damage. The International Energy Agency reported 72 energy facilities were damaged during the war, of which one third had suffered significant damage.

She said that even if the war ended today, the negative effects would continue to affect the rest of world.

After the U.S. & Israel attack on?February 28th, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz effectively. This sent the price of crude and liquefied gas sharply up. The international Brent crude benchmark was near $110 in the morning on Monday. Cash benchmarks from the Middle East were priced at a significant premium. Last week, the heads of IMF and IEA as well as the World Bank announced that they would work together to assess the 'energy and economic impacts of the war. Georgieva stated that the IMF is also "engaging" with the United Nations World Food Programme and Food and Agriculture Organization regarding food security.

In mid-March, the World Food Program warned that millions of people would face acute hunger should the war continue into June. Georgieva stated that the IMF does not yet see a food shortage, but it could occur if fertilizer deliveries are disrupted.

(source: Reuters)