Latest News

Can you price a global regime shift? McGeever

The latest trade war and foreign policy salvos from Donald Trump are upsetting the global markets. But the question is if these ructions escalate or disappear, like they did in the past 12 months.

It is more likely that the latter scenario, but it is clear that investors struggle to accurately price the fundamental shifts of the geopolitical plates.

The changes that have already occurred in 2026 will be truly astounding. The Trump administration removed Venezuela's leader, and it appears that he is now the de facto ruler of the Latin American nation.

The threat of an American response is still present after a violent crackdown in Iran on protests has resulted in the deaths of thousands.

Trump is also pushing to take Greenland by force from Denmark, a NATO ally. The U.S. - Europe alliance and the rules-based international order that has been built up since World War Two are in danger.

Economic and financial terrain are also minefields. Trump has made a number of interventionist decisions on everything from mortgage-backed securities to credit card rates, and he's also pressed U.S. oil executives into investing billions in Venezuela. We should not forget that his Justice Department is still threatening the indictment of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

This "Trumpian attack" on the U.S.-based rules-based order, to use Matt King's phrase, seemed at odds with the relative calm in markets.

This calm is breaking apart. Stocks, bonds, and the dollar have been impacted by the escalating spat that has developed between Trump and some of America's closest European Allies. Gold, the safe-haven asset, has continued to rise, breaking through $4,700 an ounce.

This looks like the return of a trade called 'Sell America.' If last year's performance is any indication, the market jitters could turn out to be speedbump on the road to new highs instead of roadblocks.

The fundamentals matter, right?

Wall Street will not stay down long, despite the geopolitical drama. The consensus expectation for U.S. economic growth and corporate profits is that they are likely to continue rising.

The International Monetary Fund on Monday raised its 2026 U.S. growth estimate to 2.4% from 2.1% ?in October, due in part to the huge sums being ?plowed into artificial-intelligence data centers, chips and power generation.

Early indications of the fourth quarter earnings are also encouraging. So far, 84.8% of the 33 S&P 500 companies that have announced earnings have surpassed expectations. If the LSEG consensus estimates for year-onyear earnings growth of 9,0% materialize, this should put upward pressure to equities.

Remember that high levels of uncertainty aren't always bad for profits or growth. In some cases it can even be positive. Imagine the amount of money needed to fund the global rearmament or the race for energy independence and AI independence.

No room for LIMBO

The relative calm of the markets over the last year could be a result of a virtuous circle - or, viewed in another way, merely an illusion. The steady flow of passive investment funds into the credit and equity market helps to keep volatility and prices low. Investors will continue to dance as long as there is music playing.

The fact that the market is so confusing, with simultaneous gains in risk-on assets and risk-off ones, reflects the fact it's very hard to price a risk of such a magnitude. What is the value that an investor places on the demise of NATO, the U.S. Europe alliance or the rise of a multi-polar world divided into three "spheres" of influence headed by the U.S. China and Russia?

For investors, regime changes are difficult to navigate. You are either at war, or you're not at war. Matt King, Satori Insights, says that there is no limbo.

The risk rally is consistent, but not necessarily driven. It's very strange. It's not difficult to explain, but it has a certain vulnerability.

It also applies to corporate profits. Analysts assume that earnings in tech and other areas will stay at their current levels. Analysts' forecasts do not seem to capture threats to the cycle, such as excessive AI capacity due competition from China or regulatory demands from the EU. These risks are still present.

Maybe Trump's move for Greenland is the straw that breaks the backs of investors, and current market anxiety will become a real correction. It's possible that you don't want to bet.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the columnist, who is also the author. Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global commentary on finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)