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How a US tariff of 50% could affect Brazilian exports
U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he will impose tariffs of 50% on all Brazilian products starting August 1. This could have a significant impact on South America’s agricultural powerhouse. Brazil's second largest export market is the United States, behind China. Brazil's primary export to the U.S. is oil, but it is also a major market for Brazilian manufactured products such as aircraft and machines. COFFEE Brazil is the largest coffee exporter in the world. The U.S. is the primary destination. Brazil exports 16.7% of its coffee to the U.S. Four sources in the trade told us that U.S. roasters will not be able pay more than 50% for the beans. Brazilian exporters are unable to cut the prices to the required level. This could cause roasters to look elsewhere to buy their beans. Brazil is likely to divert its cargos to Europe or Asia. The U.S. ranks as the second-largest market for Brazilian beef. Brazilian meatpacker Minerva claimed that tariffs could reduce its net income by up to 5% per year. JBS and Marfrig are two major meatpackers that have a significant part of their operation in the U.S. This would insulate them against a big impact. Tariffs may increase beef prices, which are already high in the U.S. ORANGE JUICE CitrusBR, a group representing the industry, warned that Trump's new tariffs could have a severe impact on Brazil's orange-juice industry, which is the largest in terms of production. The U.S. was a major market for orange juice in Brazil during the harvest of 2024/25, which ended June 30. CitrusBR stated that the tariff was "unsustainable" as the profit margins of the industry were too small to absorb additional costs. The group said that other importers wouldn't be able offset the drop in shipments into the U.S. According to data from commodities consultancy StoneX, Brazil exported 13% of its total oil last year. According to BTG Pactual, the loss to Brazil would be "modest" as the sector is more flexible in terms of commercial and logistical capabilities to divert shipments to different markets. StoneX estimates that the U.S. will also not feel the impact of the tariff, since Brazil has supplied less than 3 percent of the U.S.'s consumption so far in 2025. AIRCRAFT Embraer of Brazil, the third largest aircraft manufacturer in the world, with a large market for its regional jetliners and executive planes in the U.S., would be among the most affected companies by the tariffs. According to analysts from BTG Bank, Brazilian aircraft exports to America, specifically airplanes, accounted for around 63% last year of the total number of aircraft exported. TIMBER According to BTG analysts, the U.S. accounted for more than 40 percent of Brazil's total timber exports last year. Cogo Inteligencia em Agronegocio is a consulting firm that said forest products from Brazil will become less competitive compared to other countries, like Canada and Chile. Citi reported that Suzano, the pulp giant, with 15% of its revenue in the U.S. could be in trouble in the near future, but it benefits from low costs, the flexibility to reallocate volume, and the global scale. MACHINERY ENGINES & ELECTRONICS According to BTG, the U.S. accounted for 60% of Brazil's exports in the engine, machinery, and generator industries. UBS BB analysts said that the tariff would hurt WEG. According to the Brazilian Electrical and Electronics Industry Association, the U.S. also is the top destination for Brazilian electronic products. Roberto Samora with Luciana Madalhaes and Rodrigo Viga Gaier, Marta Nogueira and Fabio Teixeira reporting, Fabio Téixeira writing, Pedro Fonseca editing, Deepa Babington and Deepa Fonseca.
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Brazilian real surges, stocks edge higher as investors weigh Trump’s latest tariffs
Investors weighed the latest trade announcements by U.S. president Donald Trump on Thursday. The Brazilian real recovered from its losses after Trump announced a 50% tariff against goods from Brazil. Delta Air Lines, which helped Wall Street stocks rise 12% after forecasting profits for the third quarter and the full year above analyst's estimates, jumped. United Airlines and other travel stocks rose as well, with United Airlines up 15.3%. Trump confirmed late Wednesday that a 50% copper tariff will be implemented, with effect from August 1. The last time U.S. Copper prices rose on the day was late Wednesday. On Wednesday, the Brazilian real's volatility gauges reached their highest level since late April and the real fell as much as 2,3%. The dollar fell 0.6% last Thursday against the real while Brazilian stocks dropped about 0.5%. Brazilian President Luiz inacio Lula da silva vowed to retaliate against unilateral tariff increases and called for a ministerial meeting on Thursday. Some traders believe that U.S. consumer prices could increase dramatically on staples such as coffee and orange juice, if the Administration sticks to its Brazil Import Plan. The market's reaction to Trump’s recent moves has been milder than it was in April. This could be because investors are hoping that the ongoing trade negotiations between Washington, D.C. and its trading partners will result in an agreement before the deadline. Investors are also preparing for the second-quarter earnings and looking for any signs of impact from Trump's Trade War launched on April 2. Bruce Zaro of Granite Wealth Management, Plymouth, Massachusetts said that the market appeared to be in a hold pattern before the S&P 500 company reports. JPMorgan Chase will release its results on Tuesday, which is essentially the start of the reporting period. He said that there was a lot of skepticism among the analysts who follow the S&P 500. They've all been reducing their estimations based on tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding that. "But, we believe, after all, that those tech companies and growth companies will come up with fantastic earnings." I believe the market is still in a period of waiting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average grew by 259.72 points or 0.59% to 44,718.67. The S&P 500 rose by 21.75 points or 0.35% to 6,285.02 while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 34.47 points or 0.17% to 20,645.81. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 2.70 points or 0.29% to 927.00. The pan-European STOXX 600 ended up with a 0.54% gain. Bitcoin Rallyes Another all-time record. The largest cryptocurrency in the world has reached a new record high of $113.734.64. The price is up 21% so far this year. Investors digested the upbeat quarterly results of TSMC, which showed strong interest in artificial-intelligence applications, fueled by strong demand for TSMC's products. The dollar index measures the greenback in relation to a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies. The index rose by 0.28%, to 97.65. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields Investors focused on the impact of tariffs on inflation in advance of next week's key consumer price data. U.S. crude oil fell $1.81, settling at $66.57 per barrel. Brent settled at $68.64 a barrel, down by $1.55.
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Union says EPA must reinstate workers placed on leave due to a dissenting letter.
Leah Douglas WASHINGTON (July 10) - A union official wrote to EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin Thursday that employees of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency who were recently placed on leave for signing a critical letter of Trump's administration policies should be reinstated. The 139 employees and hundreds of other EPA personnel signed the letter of June 30, accusing the agency harmful deregulatory action and ignoring science. Under the direction of President Donald Trump's directives, the agency is going through a major restructuring, which includes staff reductions, elimination of grant programs and grants, and environmental justice. In a letter to Zeldin, Justin Chen, the president of the American Federation of Government Employees Council 238 which represents over 8,000 EPA staff, stated that putting the employees on leave constituted illegal retaliation. All investigations and disciplinary actions should also be stopped. Chen stated that "These employees engaged protected speech in a matter of public concern and their actions are protected by federal law as well as our collective bargaining contract." The EPA didn't immediately respond to a comment request. The agency has previously stated that it has a “zero-tolerance” policy against career bureaucrats who illegally undermine, sabotage, and undercut the agenda of the administration.
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The list of missing from the Texas floods creates uncertainty in the search for survivors
Authorities say that more than 160 people are still missing six days after flash flooding swept parts of Texas Hill Country, killing at least 120. On Thursday, thousands of searchers searched through piles and piles of debris covered in mud to find survivors. Experts in disaster response say that this figure is not necessarily accurate. The number of missing people in the wake of a disaster is often much higher than the death toll. Unable to contact a friend or relative, worried members of the public report their name to the local authorities. This information is then added to an ever-growing list. In the days immediately following the wildfire that devastated the mountain town of Paradise, California in 2018, the number missing people briefly exceeded 1.200. Local officials took two weeks to find all of the victims and months to locate every person who was reported missing. The fire claimed 85 lives, making it the state's deadliest wildfire. The FBI reported that more than 1,000 people were missing in 2023 after a wildfire destroyed Lahaina, a town on Maui Island. The final death toll was 102 by the summer of 2023. Josh Dozor is a former assistant administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and is now a senior executive with the disaster response firm International SOS. He said that the list of people missing could change in a significant way. He said that there could be missing people who are unaware they're listed. "There could be power problems, and someone's cell phone might not be charged. Shelters are full. It may take some time to reconnect with family members." Kerr County is a vast, rural county that has sporadic cell phone coverage in some areas. Over 2,100 first responders continued a mile-by-mile, painstaking search across the nation, hoping against all odds to find survivors, six days after torrential rainfall sent a wall raging water down the Guadalupe River during the early morning hours of July 4. Since the floods, no one has been found alive. Officials said that Kerr County had lost at least 96 residents, including 36 children. They gave a press conference on Thursday morning. Camp Mystic is a Christian all-girls summer retreat located on the banks the river. Officials said that five girls and one staff member from the camp are still missing. Dozor, on Thursday, said that the odds of finding someone alive after a flash flood in summer are decreasing. 'FLASH FLOODS ALLEY' Kerr County is located in the middle of central Texas' "Flash Flood Alley", a region that has seen some of the deadliest floodings. Early on the morning of July 4, more than a foot fell in less that an hour. The river rose in height from a little over a foot up to about 34 feet (10.40 meters) within a few hours. It washed away trees and other structures along its banks. On Wednesday, hundreds of Kerrville residents gathered for a prayer service at Tivy high school to remember the victims. Some students and adults hugged and held back their tears, while others prayed and sang. Reece Zunker and Paula Zunker were both former teachers at the school. According to the school district, their two children are still missing. Marti Garcia, an art teacher who was present at the event on Wednesday, said: "Zunker is a tough guy." "I had complete faith in his ability to overcome the situation." "I just had faith that he was going to pull it out." In a special session, the state legislature will meet later this month in order to investigate and provide funding for disaster relief. New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham informed reporters Thursday that, after discussions with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Nuem, federal officials had committed $15 million to disaster relief in the mountain village Ruidoso where, on Tuesday, flash flooding killed three people including two children and damaged hundreds homes. Lujan Grisham stated that some $12 million of federal disaster funding was money pledged but never paid to build levees in order to protect the community against flash floods following wildfires. (Reporting from Jane Ross in Kerrville and Rich McKay, Atlanta; Additional reporting and writing by Jonathan Allen, Andrew Hay, Joseph Ax, Chizu Nomiyama, Matthew Lewis and Paul Thomasch)
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Holders of Venezuelan bonds ask New York Court to protect their rights
Holders of an important bond defaulted on by Venezuela's PDVSA state oil company asked a New York Judge to ensure that they can claim compensation in an expected auction of shares of the parent of Venezuelan-owned U.S. refining company Citgo Petroleum. Holders' claim in New York against Venezuela is still not resolved. However, if they obtain an injunction, they can block the transfer of Citgo Holding's parent company PDV Holding's shares to the winner of the auction. Last week, a Delaware court officer who was overseeing the bidding process recommended that a $7.4 billion bid submitted by group led by unit of Gold Reserve for PDV Holding be declared the winner. The auction, which is being conducted by a court, aims to repay Venezuela's creditors for the debt defaults and expropriations that occurred in South America. The Gold Reserve Group's bid is not a payment agreement for bondholders, unlike some other competing offers. Holders are preparing to file an injunction in Delaware if Gold Reserve Group's offer under the proposed terms is approved. Christopher Clark, the lawyer for the holders, said to Judge Katherine Polk Failla of the Southern District of New York that "we don't wish to interfere with sale" in a court proceeding. "We are only trying to protect our rights." Delaware is not a proper forum to do that. Leonard Stark, a federal judge, must decide in the coming weeks whether or not to approve this recommended bid. Stark anticipated that bondholders' objection to Gold Reserve's proposed transaction to purchase Citgo's parent company could lead to an increase in litigation. The 8-year-old case saw a first failed bidding round. Late in June, the lawyers for the holders informed Polk Failla that they would be seeking relief, such as an injunction to maintain their status quo, while the New York Court decides their case. The purpose of the hearing on Thursday was for lawyers to explain their planned injunction. Reporting by Marianna Pararaga Editing and proofreading by Marguerita Chy
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IMF: New US tariffs increase trade uncertainty
The IMF stated on Thursday that it closely monitored the latest U.S. Tariffs announcements. It said uncertainty about the global economy outlook was high, and encouraged countries to work together to create a stable trading environment. The IMF announced that it would provide more information when it updates its April World Economic Outlook late in July, before the new deadline of August 1, for trade negotiations. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, expanded on Wednesday a global economic war by imposing a new tariff of 50% on U.S. imports of copper and a duty 50% on Brazilian goods. Both duties will be effective on August 1. He also announced that he would be increasing tariffs on 21 other countries. In response to an IMF representative's question, "Trade-related development is evolving and uncertainty continues to be high", the IMF spokesperson stated. ? "Countries must continue to work together to create a stable trading environment and to address common challenges." Surveys released on Tuesday showed that worries over future U.S. Tariffs clouded the outlook for many factories in the United States, Asia, and Europe. However, some factories were able shrug off this uncertainty and continue to grow. Analysts say the softness of the surveys underscores the challenges that businesses and policymakers face as they attempt to navigate Trump's efforts to shake up global trade. Officials from the Trump administration claim that tariffs have not caused inflation and that a law reducing taxes approved last week more than offsets any temporary negative effects of additional trade duties. In April, the IMF lowered its growth predictions for the United States and China, and warned that trade tensions could further slow the growth. It cited the impact of U.S. Tariffs, which are now at a 100-year high. Since then, the economy has grown due to stockpiling in anticipation of tariffs. The U.S., as well as China, have also backed down on steep reciprocal tariffs. This could indicate a slight, if temporary, upward revision. Economists believe that uncertainty is high, and that higher tariffs are likely to hit harder in the second part of the year. (Reporting and editing by Diane Craft; Andrea Shalal)
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Thousands of first-responders are searching for Texas survivors despite the odds
On Thursday, thousands of first responders continued to comb through piles covered in mud and debris, searching for survivors, despite the odds, six days after flash flooding swept across the region, killing 120. Twelve states have sent search teams to Kerr County where most of the victims died when torrential rainfalls sent a wall raging water down the Guadalupe River at dawn on July 4. Officials said that at least 96 people including 36 children died in Kerr County. They made the announcement during a press conference on Thursday morning. A further 161 people are still missing. According to authorities, the last person alive found was Friday. Camp Mystic is a Christian all-girls summer retreat located on the banks the river. Officials said that five girls and one camp counselor remain missing. Kerr County is located in the middle of "flash-flood alley" - a region of central Texas that has experienced some of the deadliest flooding. In less than an hour, more than a foot fell early on the 4th of July. The river rose in height from a few inches to over 34 feet (10.40 meters) within a few hours. It washed away trees and other structures as it swept its way. On Wednesday, hundreds of Kerrville residents gathered for a prayer service at Tivy high school to remember the victims. The memorial held at the football stadium of the school saw students and adults praying and singing, some holding back tears and hugging each other. Reece Zunker and Paula Zunker were both former teachers at the school. According to the school district, their two children are still missing. Marti Garcia, an art teacher who was present at the event on Wednesday, said: "Zunker is a tough guy." "I had complete faith in his ability to overcome the challenge." Kerr County authorities have been questioned about what more they could have done to warn residents of the rising floodwaters in the early morning hours of July 4, and to get some to higher ground. After failing to obtain state funding to cover the costs, the county refused to install an early warning system. Officials have promised to examine the events in order to determine where they went wrong. However, their focus at this time is on rescue and recovery. In a special session, the state legislature will meet later this month in order to investigate and provide funding for disaster relief. New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham informed reporters Thursday that, after discussions with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Nuem, federal officials had committed $15 million to disaster relief in the mountain village Ruidoso where, on Tuesday, flash flooding killed three people including two children and damaged hundreds homes. Lujan Grisham stated that 12 million dollars of the federal disaster funds were money that was previously promised, but never paid to build levees in order to protect the community against flash floods following wildfires. Reporting by Jane Ross, Additional reporting by Jonathan Allen and Rich McKay; Writing by Joseph Ax. Editing by Chizu nomiyama.
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Analysts warn about the impact of Trump tariffs on shares of Brazil's Embraer
The shares of Brazilian planemaker Embraer plunged sharply Thursday after U.S. president Donald Trump announced he would impose 50% tariffs on all imports coming from South America. Analysts have warned that the third largest aircraft manufacturer in the world, with a large market for its executive jets and regional planes in the U.S., will be among the most affected firms by the tariffs. Embraer shares traded in Sao Paulo fell as much as 8 percent on the news before reversing their losses and trading down only 5%. Embraer led the decline in Brazil's Bovespa index which fell 0.7%. SkyWest recently ordered 60 E175 Embraer jets. The demand for business jets has been high in Brazil, where Embraer has assembly lines. Analysts at Itau BBA said that 60% of Embraer’s revenues are derived from North America. Of this, three quarters of them could be affected by tariffs. The analysts estimated that Embraer could lose $150 million in earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) between August and December. Brazil's top imports to the United States are aircraft, oil, steel, coffee, and orange juice. Analysts at XP said that "although we see Trump's statement primarily as a negotiation tool, we expect investors to remain concerned given the potential impact a 50% tariff on Brazilian products would have for Embraer." They noted that although Embraer's jets are assembled in Florida, some of their content comes from Brazil. XP said that the tariffs may also affect demand for E1 aircraft in an inflationary climate. Embraer shares have risen more than 30% year-to date, after a 150% increase last year. The shares reached a new record earlier this month due to robust demand for Embraer's aircraft. (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao; Gabriel Araujo)
Brazil's stocks fall, but real rebound after Trump's tariffs of 50%
Brazil's stock exchange fell on Thursday. However, the real recovered the next day, after U.S. president Donald Trump shocked the world by imposing 50% tariffs instead of the 10% originally indicated. Trump cited political disagreements as the reason for his shock decision.
The currency volatility gauges reached their highest level since April's tariff announcements. After the real fell as much as 2,8% on Wednesday, in response to what Deutsche Bank called an escalation in tensions. The currency fell 2.3% on Wednesday, but rebounded on Thursday to be up 0.5% against the dollar.
U.S. listed shares of Brazilian companies dropped, with an ETF that is widely followed in Brazil falling by nearly 2%. Itau Unibanco dropped 3.8%, Banco Santander fell 3.5%, and Petrobras, the state oil company lost 0.4%. The local benchmark fell by 0.6%.
Citibank's analysis indicates that the impact of the tariffs is uncertain, but this announcement is a blow to Brazil's external accounts. Citibank said that further escalation of the tariff could lead to financial account outflows and potentially damage asset prices.
Brazil's bonds are among the best performers in emerging markets, with bonds denominated in dollars returning almost 8% while local bonds returned a staggering 20%. Local stock markets have reached record highs this month, and are among the most affordable in terms of dollar value for expected earnings.
The dollar-denominated Brazil Stock Index is also up by nearly 25%. This is due to the 13% real surge this year.
Graham Stock, RBC BlueBay Asset Management, said Trump's reasons for the tariffs were based on his dissatisfaction with a court case involving former Brazilian right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro as well as legal actions against U.S. Social Media firms.
Stock stated that "the economic implications of this are still fairly modest" as only a little over 10% of Brazil’s exports were going to the U.S. and represented just 1% of Brazil's GDP.
He said that the risk was that Lula would use his defiance against U.S. intervention as a badge in the lead-up to October 2026's elections. In this case, de-escalation is less likely.
Experts and traders said that the U.S. consumer will face steep price increases on staples such as coffee and orange juice, if the tariffs of 50% are implemented.
Brazil is the source of a third the coffee that the U.S. consumes, making it the largest consumer of this beverage in the world. More than half the orange juice consumed in the U.S. comes from Brazil, too.
Trump's decision on Wednesday followed his threat to impose a 10% additional tariff on the BRICS developing nation group - Brazil being the 'B.' - that he called "anti American."
(source: Reuters)