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Gold gains are reduced as peace talks with Ukraine progress. US jobs data is the focus.
Spot gold retreated from its earlier gains after progress was made in the crucial?talks' between U.S. officials, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy?aimed at ending?the war. Traders awaited important U.S. employment data. By 01:55 pm, spot gold had risen 0.2% to $4,309.82 per ounce. ET (18:55 GMT), following a rise of more than 1% in the earlier session. U.S. Gold Futures closed 0.2% higher, at $4335.2 per ounce. Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, says that the progress in Russia-Ukraine talks appears to be dampening demand for safe-haven gold. He also added that the gold market is under pressure due to profit-taking, and liquidation of futures contracts by traders who purchased them earlier. Steve Witkoff, the U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine, said that "a lot of progress has been made in Ukraine discussions," while an?U.S. Officials from both sides said that they have made progress in reducing the differences between Russia, Ukraine and other countries. The Federal Reserve will release its non-farm payrolls and retail data on Tuesday. This information could provide traders with more clues about the direction of the Fed's policy. According to CME FedWatch Tool, the markets are pricing in 78% of a rate reduction in January 2026. Gold is traditionally seen as a safe haven asset. It tends to do well in times of geopolitical or economic uncertainty. Silver spot rose 2.6%, to $63.61, from a record high of $64.65 reached on Friday. It is still within striking distance of the $65/oz mark. Silver is the most popular precious metal. Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said that by the end of next year we could be trading above $65 and as early as quarter one of the following year I could see up to $70. While spot platinum rose 2.5%, to $1.788.55, its highest level since Sept. 2011, palladium also reached a new two-month high with a nearly?5% increase to $1.560.25 an ounce. Nornickel of Russia, the largest palladium producer in the world, stated that the market for palladium could be deficient by 0.2 million ounces, including investment demand.
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Sources: U.S. Treasury rejects Xtellus' bid for Lukoil Assets
Four people familiar with the matter said that the U.S. Treasury rejected an 'offer' from a group headed by U.S. Bank Xtellus Partners to buy foreign assets of Russian Oil Company Lukoil. Xtellus was in a race with Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Abu Dhabi Group International Holding Company. MOL from Hungary and the U.S. Private Equity firm Carlyle are also still involved. The U.S. Treasury declined comment. Lukoil was willing to sell its assets in October after the U.S. sanctioned it and Kremlin controlled rival Rosneft to encourage Russia to reach a peace deal with Ukraine. Over a dozen companies bid on the assets of Lukoil, valued at approximately $22 billion. The assets include upstream gas and oil projects, refinery and more than 2,00 filling stations in Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East. Sources said that Xtellus offered to arrange a swap between Lukoil securities owned by U.S. 'investors, in a cashless transaction? to return them to Lukoil for the Russian firm's global assets. Sources said that Lukoil preferred the Xtellus offer, but that it was difficult to implement. Xtellus advises bid partners Todd Boehly, an American billionaire, and Allied Investment Partners, a group of Emirati investors. According to one source, Lukoil has already signed a purchase agreement with the Xtellus led group. Source: The Treasury informed the group it didn't have permission for them to use sanctioned security in a transaction. This was the reason their proposal was turned down. The plan now is to take?their proposal to a senior decision maker and try to reverse the rejection. They said the group would also apply for a licence to access these securities. U.S. investment fund owners have large Lukoil?shares which were written off and frozen after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, costing them billions of dollars. The plan was to sell the assets and then pay investors, or to return the shares to Lukoil as an exchange for the assets. The U.S. last week extended the deadline to negotiate with Lukoil until January 17. Reporting by Jarrett Renshaw and David Gauthier Villars, Writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov, Editing by Tomasz and David Goodman
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Sources: U.S. Treasury rejects Xtellus' bid for Lukoil Assets
Three people familiar with the matter said that the U.S. Treasury 'has rejected the offer of a group led U.S. -based Xtellus Partners to purchase the foreign assets owned by Russian oil.company Lukoil. Xtellus was competing with U.S. oil giants Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Abu Dhabi Group International Holding Company. Hungary's MOL, and U.S. Private Equity firm Carlyle are also still in the race. The U.S. Treasury declined comment. Lukoil was willing to sell its assets after the U.S. sanctioned it in October, along with the Kremlin controlled rival Rosneft to try to?push Russia towards a peaceful deal with Ukraine. Over a dozen companies bid on the assets of?Lukoil, valued at approximately $22 billion. Assets include upstream oil and gas projects, refining, and more than 2,00 filling stations in Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East. Sources said that Xtellus offered to arrange a swap between Lukoil securities owned by U.S. shareholders and the Russian?company’s global assets in exchange for a cashless transaction. Sources said that Lukoil preferred the Xtellus offer, but execution was difficult. Xtellus advises bid partners Todd Boehly, an American billionaire, and Allied Investment Partners of Emirati investors. U.S. investment fund owners have large amounts of Lukoil stock that was frozen and written off?after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, resulting in a loss of?billions? of dollars. The plan was to sell the assets and then pay investors. The U.S. last week extended the deadline to negotiate with Lukoil until January 17. Reporting by Jarrett Renshaw and David Gauthier Villars, Writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov, Editing by Tomasz and David Goodman
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Gold gains are reduced as peace talks with Ukraine progress. US jobs data is also being watched.
Spot gold pared gains made earlier on Monday, despite progress in crucial talks between U.S. officials &?Ukrainian President Volodymyr?Zelenskiy to end the war. Traders awaited important U.S. employment data. Spot gold was steady at $4,295.20 per ounce as of 12:16 pm. ET (17:16 GMT), following a rise of more than 1% in the earlier session. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 0.1% to $4325.60 per ounce. Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, says that the progress in Russia-Ukraine talks appears to be dampening demand for safe-haven gold. He also added that the gold market is under pressure due to profit-taking, and a week-long liquidation of some traders who have bought?futures in the past. Steve Witkoff, the U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine, said that "a lot of progress has been made in Ukraine discussions," while an official from the U.S. told reporters that both sides are moving closer to reducing differences between Russia and Ukraine. The Federal Reserve will release its non-farm payrolls and retail data on Tuesday. This report should provide traders with more information on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. According to CME FedWatch Tool, the markets are pricing in 78% of a rate reduction in January 2026. Gold is traditionally seen as a safe haven asset. It tends to do well in times of geopolitical or economic uncertainty. Silver spot rose 2.2%, to $63.39 after hitting a record high of $64.65 last Friday. It is still within striking distance of the historic $65/oz mark. Silver is the most popular precious metal. Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said that by year's end we will be trading above $65 and could even see $70 early in quarter one of?next years. The spot price of?platinum rose 2.6% to reach $1,789.80. This is the highest since September 2011. Palladium also reached a new high with a?5% increase to $1.569.68 an ounce. Nornickel of Russia, the largest palladium producer in the world, stated that the market for palladium could be deficient by 0.2 million ounces, including investment demand.
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Italy's Competition Authority drops investigation into Eni Plenitude
The Italian Competition Authority (AGCM), in its weekly bulletin, announced that it had closed the investigation into alleged unfair commercial practices involving Eni's Plenitude unit. Eni's retail and renewable business was investigated in the investigation launched in March. The authority stated that between May and September 2024, customers complained about their contracts for electricity and gas being renewed without any prior notice and with new terms and conditions. The Italian competition watchdog also enforces consumer rights. The AGCM bulletin stated that Eni would intensify its efforts to alert customers to changes in terms and conditions and compensate those who have suffered a loss. The regulator stated that approximately 90,000-110,000 Eni customers would be eligible for compensation at a cost of?2-6?million euro ($2.35-7.05million). The agency concluded that "the commitments proposed by Eni?Plenitude (...) will be suitable to remedy the potential illegality (of the commercial practice in March)". Reporting by Alvise Armell, Editing by Gavin Jones. $1 = 0.8511 euro
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Health ministry reports that Israeli forces killed a Palestinian teenager in West Bank.
According to the Palestinian Health Ministry, an Israeli soldier shot and killed a 16-year old Palestinian on Monday during a raid in Tuqu', marking the latest in a spate of violence in Israel-occupied West Bank. According to a report from the Palestinian state news agency WAFA, the boy was shot when?Israeli militay forces gathered late Monday in the town centre and started firing "indiscriminately". According to the report, the military fired a live bullet into the chest of the Ammar Yaser Sabah. The report said that he was taken to hospital, but sadly he did not survive. The Israeli military did not respond immediately to a comment request. Since the beginning of the Gaza war, in October 2023, violence has increased in the West Bank. Israeli settler attacks against Palestinians are on the rise, and the military is tightening restrictions on movement. According to the United Nations, more than a thousand Palestinians were killed in the West Bank from October 7, 2023 until November 14, 2025. In the West Bank, 59 Israelis were killed over the same time period. According to official Palestinian statistics, 53 Palestinian minors were killed by Israeli forces this year in the West Bank. The West Bank is home for 2.7 million Palestinians, who enjoy limited autonomy under Israeli military occupation. There are hundreds of thousands of Israelis who have settled in the West Bank. Many world powers consider Israel's settlements, on land it gained in a war of 1967, illegal. Numerous U.N. Security Council Resolutions have also called for Israel to cease all settlement activities. Israel denies that the settlements are illegal, citing historical and biblical connections with the land. Israeli forces have cleared refugee camps and forced thousands of Palestinians to leave their homes. They are also maintaining a presence in some West Bank cities that they've had for decades. Human Rights Watch accused Israel of war crimes in November, and crimes against mankind for what it called forced expulsions from the West Bank. Israel denies that it has committed such crimes. Reporting by Ali Sawafta, Pesha Magd and Aidan Lewis; writing by Pesha Magd. Editing by Aidan Lewis.
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Official: White House to continue 'historic' deals with mining sector
A senior official revealed on Monday that the Trump administration is planning to make more "historical deals" with U.S. mines in order to increase?production and supply of minerals critical for national defense, high-tech, and other sectors. The administration acquired equity stakes earlier this year in MP Materials Lithium Americas, and Trilogy Metals. These transactions were made as part of President Donald Trump’s efforts to increase domestic production and use of minerals for the national defense. Jarrod Agen is executive director of White House National Energy Dominance Council. He said that the U.S. should be able to control its own destiny, especially when it comes to the supply chain and critical minerals. "We have set a good pace, but it is only the first year." Korea Zinc announced on Monday that it would build the first U.S. mineral refinery in many years with Washington's financial assistance. Agen said at a conference on critical'minerals' hosted by the Center of Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington D.C., "You will see historic deals in the area of critical minerals throughout this administration, as well as historic partnerships with private sector companies, which will lead to a real revitalization in mining in the United States." The remarks were broadcast on the web. Agen, a former employee of?defense contractor Lockheed Martin who has held various roles, stated that Trump wants to "jumpstart' mining projects in Alaska as well as in Arizona where Rio Tinto BHP plan to build the largest copper mine in the world.
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Gold prices rise on expectations of rate cuts and a weaker dollar ahead of US employment data
Spot gold hovered near a seven-week high on Monday, buoyed by a weaker dollar and expectations of U.S. rate cuts before the release of important jobs data. Silver held below its record high set on Friday. By 10:21 am, spot gold had risen 0.4% to $4.321.25 per ounce. ET (1521 GMT), following a rise of more than 1% in the earlier session. U.S. Gold Futures increased?0.6% at $4,352.90 per ounce. Dollars are nearing a two-month-low, which makes greenback-priced gold?more appealing for overseas buyers. Tomorrow, the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report and Retail Data will be released. Traders will examine these data to get a better idea of Federal Reserve policy. Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said that traders are attempting to get ahead of the Fed. They expect the data to be better than expected and the Fed will be more likely to continue to cut rates. In a low-interest rate environment, gold, which is a nonyielding investment, thrives. Last week, the Fed delivered its third and final quarter-percentage-point rate cut of the year, while signaling a pause on further easing until more data emerges. According to CME FedWatch Tool, the markets are pricing in two rate cuts next year with a 73% probability of a move by January 2026. Spot silver increased 2.6% to $63.64 after hitting a record high of $64.65 last Friday. It is still within striking distance of the historic $65/oz mark. The metal has grown 120% in the past year. Silver is the most popular precious metal. Haberkorn said that by the end of this year, silver will be trading at $65 or more. He added that he could even see $70 as early as quarter one of next year. Spot platinum rose 2.8% to $1.793.69 and reached its highest level since Sept.?2011. Palladium also hit a new two-month high with a 5.2% increase to $1.564.25 an ounce. Nornickel, world's biggest palladium producer said in a review of the metals market that the palladium industry could experience a deficit this year, including investment demand.
Oil traders expect stocks to fall substantially after OPEC extends cuts: Kemp
Global petroleum stocks are only slightly listed below the longterm seasonal typical but futures costs have actually already moved into a high backwardation as traders expect they will diminish further over the rest of 2024.
OECD business inventories of crude oil and improved products are approximated to have been around 75 million barrels ( -3% or -0.48 standard discrepancies) listed below the previous ten-year seasonal average at the end of February.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term. Energy Outlook reveals the deficit has actually altered really little bit considering that. March 2023 regardless of some relatively significant swings in spot costs. and calendar spreads.
Extra production cuts by Saudi Arabia and its OPEC? allies. have actually been offset by faster-than-anticipated development in non-OPEC. output, primarily from the United States, Canada, Brazil and. Guyana.
Petroleum intake has actually continued to increase steadily in. line with its long-term pattern regardless of the extended downturn in. manufacturing and freight activity across North America, Europe. and China.
AREA VERSUS SPREAD OUT
Front-month futures rates for the benchmark Brent contract. have balanced around $84 per barrel so far in March,. nearly exactly in line with the long-term average given that the. start of the century, once inflation is taken into consideration.
Average front-month prices have actually increased decently from the. recent low of $78 per barrel in December, which was in the 43rd. percentile for all months considering that 2000 in genuine terms.
Nearly all the price increases have actually been concentrated in the. agreements closest to delivery, with little or no change in. prices for shipments in 2025 and beyond.
Calendar average futures rates for Brent delivered in equivalent. instalments throughout 2025 have averaged $76 up until now in. March up just a little from $74 in December.
Chartbook: Global petroleum inventories and prices
The relative boost in neighboring futures rates has actually pressed. the market structure into a significantly steep backwardation.
Front-month rates have actually traded at an average premium of. almost $4 over contracts for delivery 6 months later on so far in. March (91st percentile).
The six-month calendar spread has actually strengthened considerably. from approximately just 42 cents per barrel (43rd percentile) in. December.
PRODUCTION RESTRAINT
Such a high backwardation would usually be related to. stocks that are currently low and quickly depleting. The. rapid relocation would likewise typically be associated by a bigger. boost in spot rates.
In this instance, however, traders appear to be expecting a. much larger deficiency of stocks over the rest of the year. rather than any existing tightness in the market.
Traders are reacting to signals that Saudi Arabia and its. OPEC+ allies will extend their cuts through the middle of year. and beyond, even if usage stays robust and stocks. draw down substantially.
Cost increases primarily in close-by contracts indicate the market is. responding to the anticipated constraint of production rather. than upgrades in the outlook for the economy and intake.
Saudi Arabia and its closest allies have actually accepted a smaller. share of international production to support costs at a higher level. and this estimation is anticipated to be maintained for the. indefinite future.
Production cuts will just be reversed subject to market. conditions, OPEC revealed on March 3, in other words when. consumption is strong enough that output can be increased. without decreasing rates.
DECREASING DRAWBACK THREAT
Saudi Arabia's willingness to extend its voluntary. production restraint has actually eliminated much of the downside danger from. oil costs in spite of uncertainty about the outlook for the worldwide. economy and interest rates.
By March 12, hedge funds and other cash supervisors have. enhanced their net position in futures and options connected to. Brent and U.S. crude to the equivalent of 379 million barrels. ( 27th percentile for all weeks considering that records began in 2013).
The combined position is still relatively low, and could be. characterised as reasonably bearish general, however it is lot more. favorable than in the middle of December, when it fell to a. record low of simply 128 million barrels.
Bullish long positions outnumbered bearish brief ones by a. ratio of 3.58:1 (36th percentile) up from simply 1.47:1 (a record. low) on December 12.
Portfolio investors stay mindful about costs increasing. even more, at least until there are clearer signs of a recovery in. commercial activity, however are no longer so fearful of them. decreasing once again.
One way or another, nevertheless, the present contradiction. in between average area costs and a strong backwardation will have. to be dealt with.
If international inventories diminish as much as the strong. backwardation implies, area prices are most likely to increase over the. course of the year and highly likely to go beyond $90.
But if the marketplace remains easily provided, as the. present level of area costs indicates, the backwardation will. gradually ease.
Associated columns:
- Record U.S. oil and gas production keeps prices under. pressure (March 1, 2024)
- Western Hemisphere oil output rises, with an assisting hand. from OPEC (February 21, 2024)
- Oil intake and prices revert to trend (January 12,. 2024)
John Kemp is a market analyst. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.
(source: Reuters)