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Oil will remain above $80 per barrel despite Middle East supply concerns
Analysts maintain 'forecasts of oil prices above $80.00 a barrel by 2026, as shipping disruptions related to the U.S. - Iran?conflict are expected to reduce supplies. A poll revealed. A survey conducted in August by 31 economists and analyst predicted that Brent crude will average $85.08 per barrel in 2026, and U.S. oil $80.20 per barrel. This is roughly in line July's predictions of $85.22 and $80.14 respectively. "China is the greatest downside risk, as import demand remains sluggish so long as oil prices remain above $80/bbl. Suvro Sarkar is the head of energy research for DBS Bank. He said that the urge to replenish inventories would only occur at lower oil prices. According to analysts polled, the global oil demand is expected to decline by between?1million and 1.6million barrels per day by 2026. China's crude imports dropped to a near-decade low in June, and imports for July remained 24.3% below the year before. SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS SUPPORT PRICING The U.S. - Iran war, which began late in February and escalated to attacks on energy and transport infrastructure throughout the Gulf region, has dramatically reduced vessel traffic along Middle Eastern waterways including the Strait of Hormuz. In August, progress in the efforts to restore shipping along the Strait of Hormuz was limited. U.S. forces attacked two launchers in Iran's Larak island on Sunday. This was the first U.S. attack on Iran since July. Iran has responded by attacking U.S. bases in Jordan. Iranian media cited the Revolutionary Guards. Brent crude traded mainly between $80 and $90 a barrel. Iran and Oman continue to work on details of an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz, according to which both countries will share revenue generated by the waterway. Price Futures Group senior analyst Phil Flynn said that traders no longer price an imminent collapse of Gulf exports. However, they do not price a "swift" return to normal. A survey revealed that analysts expect the global oil market to remain in deficit by 2026. Estimates ranged from 1,65 million to 3,5 million barrels of oil per day. SUPPLY SHOCK DOMINATES The International Energy Agency predicts that global demand will fall?by 1.6million bpd by 2026. OPEC, however, forecasts a growth of 580,000 bpd - albeit 200,000 bpd lower than its earlier projections. OPEC+ - which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia, and other allies - announced in August a 188,000 bpd increase?for the month of September. This completed the group's rollback of about 1.65million bpd of voluntary output cuts?introduced by 2023. OPEC+ has lost its ability to influence oil prices six months after the Iran War. Supply disruptions in the Middle East have overshadowed their output decisions, and China's reduced imports, the largest oil importer in the world, are helping to balance the markets.
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Trump will host oil executives following his accusation that refiners are ripping off consumers.
Donald Trump has accused U.S. refiners of ripping off Americans. He also called for an investigation by the Justice Department and encouraged companies to use their profits to'reduce gasoline prices, which spiked during the conflict with Iran. He is expected to welcome many of these companies to the White House on Tuesday to celebrate their efforts to maintain a well-supplied market in an effort to manage gasoline prices, which currently average over $4 per gallon. Executives have had to make an unusual calculation because of the timing. According to those familiar with the plans and the timing, companies received the invitations late last week with little information about the event, or who would be attending. Some executives were left wondering if sending their CEOs to the White House could result in an uncomfortable meeting with an unpredictable President. You want to sit at the table but also consider what might happen once you are there. One company official who was tasked with advising which executives to invite said, "You don't want the CEO to be embarrassed." One company official stated that there were concerns regarding the event, but it was also a rare chance for executives to directly address Trump about issues such as the biofuel policy of the Trump administration and the Jones Act which could affect the availability and cost of fuel shipments between U.S. port. The official stated that "there are concerns about the opticals but you don't want miss the opportunity to have an immediate conversation with the President about issues important to the industry." Caution is warranted. Darren Woods, Exxon's CEO at the time, drew Trump’s ire in January by calling Venezuela in its present form "uninvestable." Trump said that he "was inclined to keep Exxon out of Venezuela" and accused the company of being "too cute." Sources claim that Exxon was not invited to the meeting on Tuesday. Exxon is the third largest refiner in America by capacity. Exxon and the White House declined to comment on who was invited. The invited companies are from the entire refining industry - large integrated oil companies and smaller independent fuel manufacturers. According to those familiar with the plan, they include Marathon Petroleum, Delek US Holdings, Chevron PBF Energy, and Valero Energy. No company responded to requests about concerns regarding attending the meeting. Expanding Refining Capacity White House officials say the meeting's focus will be on increasing U.S. refinery capacity. They claim that Democratic policies have led to years of refinery closures, and discouraged investments in new facilities or expansions. A White House official stated that the U.S. operates at almost 100% of its current refining capacity. The administration is therefore focused on taking "concrete and near-term steps" in order to increase capacity. This will ultimately lead to lower gasoline prices. Officials said that the meeting is taking place as "the administration" works to increase Venezuelan crude oil flowing to U.S. refining facilities. Trump has made cheaper fuel a central part of his economic agenda. However, he has been increasingly enraged by the high prices at the pump, accusing refiners of profiteering, even as he seeks their support in his larger push to increase U.S. production of energy. Prices have been high for most of the year. They soared after the conflict with Iran began in late-February and climbed above $4 per gallon by spring. Prices are the highest they have ever been for this time of the year as we head into Labor Day weekend. The American Automobile Association says August will be the most costly month in history. U.S. refiners reported bumper profits during the second quarter, as gasoline and diesel margins soared. Meanwhile, overseas buyers were turning to 'the U.S. as global fuel supplies were disrupted. Marathon, Phillips 66, and?Valero - three of the biggest U.S. refining companies - reported a combined second quarter profit of $12.6 billion, according to. Stephen Brown, former Washington energy lobbyist, consultant and advisor to CEOs in presidential politics, has said that he wouldn't recommend sending a chief executive officer to the event, given Trump's treatment towards the industry over the past few months. Brown stated that "this event is a TV moment, pure performative, which can only embarrass our company."
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Japan's oil imports in July rose 17.0% year-on-year - METI
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry announced on Monday that Japan's crude imports increased 17.0% from a year ago to 2.38 million barrels a day (11.72 millions kilolitres). The data revealed that Japan's domestic oil products?sales fell by?2.4% last month compared to the same period a year ago, falling to?2.16 million barrels per day. 1 kilolitre equals 6.2898 barrels The data revealed that gasoline sales fell 3.3%, to 791.233 bpd. Kerosene, however, was up 5.5%, to 54.238 bpd. Below is a table that shows Japan's July product sales, imports, and other statistics. Figures are converted from kl to bpd unless otherwise stated. The inventory volumes are expressed in millions of barrels. The percentage changes are based upon bpd. Product/Volume Jul Jun M/M(%) Yr/Yr(%) Crude Imports 2 377 800 2 103 131 16.8 17.0 Processed : 2,402,911 2,173,006 14,3 10.6 Shipment 827 1 092 -21.8 62.3 Oil product sales 2,162,380 2,015,426 10.9 -2.4 Gasoline 791,233 7005,715 15,9 -3.3 kerosene 54,238 63,907 -12.3 5.5 Naphtha (502,315)?451,781 14.9.5.1 Imports of products 404,103, 334,483, 24.8 -22.2 Gasoline 81 551 25 713 227.7 -23.8 kerosene 7,594 17,609 -55.4 56.2 Naphtha - 291,218 268,994 11.9 Exports of products 573 408?369 529 60.3 39.3 Gasoline 63 276 43 702 49.6 103.6 kerosene 19,832 20,722 -1.1 33.7 jet fuel 163,096 127,459 32.2 -5.9 Gas oil 158 728 43 893 273.7 141.6 Fuel oil B, C 167 347 132 692 30.3 36.5 Refinery Production 2,339 955, 2,139 639 11.7 Gasoline 784 343 694 294 16.7 13.4 kerosene 106,316 135,546 -19.0 -8.6 Naphtha 219 432 191 828 18.2 6. jet fuel 236,659 215,659 13.4 11.9 Gas oil 646,987?541,847 19.7 23.4 Month-end Inventory Jul/Jun M/M (%) Yr/Yr Crude 72.3 69.5 4.2 2.0 Products 59.3 60.2-1.4 1.9 Gasoline 10.8 10.2 6.18 kerosene 12.7 11.7 ?8.9 -10.1 Click on to see Japan's monthly refinery production rate. This table shows Japan's crude oil imports. The amounts are given in kilolitres. Share of Country in Jul 2026 M/M/Yr/Year Total 11,719 259 100.0 16.8 170.0 Middle East 6,897.089 58.9?10.3-21.4 Saudi Arabia 3,204,880 27.3 47.9 -7.4 Arab-L 3,157,464 - Arab-S-L 47,416 - Oman 183 880 1.6 Oman 183 880 United Arab Emirates 3,508 329 29.9 2.22 -18.4 Murban 2,230,243 - U-Zakum 318,043 - DAS 960 043 - South East Asia 47.620 0.4 -26.5 46.0 Vietnam 47.620 0.4 Bach Ho 47,620 - North America 4,336,357 ?37.0 33.6 360.6 United States of America 4336,357 37,0 33.6 360.6 Wtim 2,825,294 - Mars 918.512 - WTL?433,515 T-Horse 159,036 - Central and South America 370 909 3.2 93.4 114.8 Mexico 165,473 1.4 Isthmus 165,473 - Ecuador 205,436 1.8 7.1 19.5 Napo 205,436 - Africa 46,484 0.4 27.8 Republic of South Sudan 46 484 0.4 27.8 S-Nile 46,484 Oceania 20,800 0.2 -82.3 -49.7 Australia 20,800 0.2 82.3 -49.7 Pyrenees 20 800
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Shanghai Zinc has its best month since January due to tight supply
Shanghai zinc rose on Monday as a result of tightening supply outside China. This is the best month for Shanghai zinc since January. By 0715 GMT, the?most traded zinc contract at?the Shanghai Futures Exchange had risen?1.66%. It was now worth?26.710 yuan (US$3,975.35) per metric ton. This brought its August gain up to 5.57%. It is the largest monthly increase since January. The metal is mainly used to galvanize steel. Zinc shortages outside China are encouraging exports of zinc from?China. Daniel Hynes is a senior commodities analyst at ANZ. He said that the stockpiles in zinc LME warehouses have fallen by more than 20 percent over the last two months. "Disruptions at mines has led to smelter?charges as low as USD110/t." London Metal Exchange closed Monday due to a British public holiday, but zinc prices in Britain reached a four-year peak on Friday. Copper prices, like zinc, have been supported by concerns about inventory. The red metal is in short supply as the material is being sucked up into the U.S. to prepare for a possible tariff on imported refined copper. The SHFE's most traded copper contract increased by 0.44%, to 109.100 yuan per ton ($16,237.78). U.S. officials make hawkish comments about interest rates. Analysts from Chinese broker Galaxy Futures stated in a note that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is exerting downward pressure to copper prices. According to CME's FedWatch, traders on Sunday had priced in a 60% probability that the Fed would raise interest rates at its September meeting. This is up from 40% one week prior. Rates that are higher for longer can be a problem for commodities such as copper, which depend on economic growth. The SHFE monitored warehouses reported total copper stock on Friday Last week, metal stocks on-warrant - that is, metal not yet marked for withdrawal – were down by more than 19%. Aluminium gained 0.61% among other SHFE metals. Lead gained 0.8%. Nickel lost 0.94%. Tin lost 0.71%.
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Eskom's profit doubles, but sales weakness and municipal debt clouds outlook
South 'African Eskom has more than doubled their annual?profit? in the 2026 financial period, thanks to a turnaround of operations and higher electricity rates, but weaker demand, and increasing municipal debt, are clouding their prospects. State-owned utility SA Power said Monday that it had made a profit of $30.3 billion rand in the fiscal year ending March. This was compared to a restated $14.0 billion rand in the previous year. The power cuts that have hampered Africa's largest economy for over a decade are now much less frequent. Eskom reported that it had only implemented rolling blackouts four times during the financial year. This compares to 13 days one year ago and 329 days last year. The revenue rose by 4.1% due to a 12.7% increase in the average tariff, but a decline of 6.2% in electricity sales volume partially offset this gain. Calib Cassim, the outgoing chief financial officer, said that the weaker electricity sales, and the idleness of the Mozal aluminum smelter (which has been placed in care and maintenance because Eskom and it could not reach an agreement on tariffs), would affect the results for the current fiscal year. MUNICIPAL DUT CASTS SHADE Gross debt was 356 billion rand by the end of march, up from 326.7 billion rand one year ago. Unpaid municipal debt is the biggest threat to South Africa's dominant power supplier. Eskom accounts for over 40% of its sales from municipalities and metropolitan areas. Eskom reported that municipal debt increased by 17.9% to 111.6 billion Randd, and could reach 358 billion rand in the year 2031 if no action is taken. Cassim stated that Eskom's earnings could have been 15 billion rand more if it had collected the 15.8 billion Rand owed by municipalities. This is because revenue received from municipalities who do not pay is only recognised when cash is received. He said that Eskom could be in a better position to meet capital requirements without government assistance, but the municipality's debt must be resolved. South?Africa is holding municipal elections on November 4. South?Africa will hold municipal elections on?November 4.
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Nepal, hit by devastating floods and renewed calls for Chinese data on early warnings
Experts and officials from Nepal and China met in Kathmandu three months before the wall of water, rock and mud that hurled down a Himalayan valley bordering Nepal and China killed hundreds. The agenda for the meeting, which took place in the capital of Nepal on May 27, included 10 Nepalese officials and 12 Chinese officials, including those from the Tibet region, where the disaster occurred. They discussed ways to strengthen cooperation between the two countries to monitor and respond effectively to hazards such as floods, bad weather, and glacier-related hazards. Participants called for joint measures to reduce risk, such as inventories of glacial lake and hazard maps. After the meeting,?two Nepali official said they didn't receive enough information from China?on glacier risk and water levels. They feared that insufficient data-sharing could hinder their ability to prepare and anticipate major disasters. The May meeting was attended by Sauhardra Joshi a hydrologist at Nepal's Flood Forecasting Division. Experts and officials have not placed blame on either side. The natural disaster will cost Nepal's economy a tenth of its annual output. Nepali officials claim that the priority for them is to intensify their cooperation with China. China's Foreign Ministry said that the two countries have "maintained sound cooperation in the areas of meteorology and water resources, as well as disaster prevention and management". In a press release, the Ministry said that "China will continue its strong support for Nepal's relief efforts from disasters, enhance cooperation in disaster mitigation and prevention, and safeguard common interests between the two peoples." CHINA SAYS ITS DATA SHARE HAS BEEN TIMELESS Last week the collapse of a glacier in Nepal's Langtang range, which divides Tibet from Nepal, caused a devastating flood. More than 900 people died and more than 5,000 remain missing on both sides. China did not have any information about the condition of the glaciers, particularly those outside its borders. Fan Xuanmei of Chengdu University of Technology's State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection told the state-run China Daily that it is difficult to detect such failures in advance. The potential source areas are usually above 5,000 meters, which makes conventional field monitoring difficult. Snow and ice can limit satellite observations, and the steep terrain and snow cover can also make it difficult to monitor. Monitoring equipment must operate in cold temperatures and at high altitudes. Binod Parajuli a Nepal government hydrologist said that at the meeting in Kathmandu the Chinese refused to sign the agreement and asked for further discussion. The meeting was not reported in detail, nor were the Nepalese demands for greater cooperation to monitor the glaciers which threaten the communities on both sides. China's embassy said on X that Beijing and Kathmandu remained in close communication on this issue and made "substantial" progress at the May meeting on promoting disaster information sharing across borders. Officials said that Nepal expressed similar concerns in 2013. However, experts and officials warned that what they described as slow progress wasn't a significant cause of the latest disaster. The Chinese Embassy rejected criticisms from Nepali social media users who claimed that China failed to give adequate warnings. It said Chinese and foreign experts had significant difficulties monitoring hazards in remote Himalayan regions. It said that Chinese teams had "shared important information" with Nepal in a timely fashion. Last year, Nepal expressed concern about a flooding in the same region, which was triggered by a sudden release of water in Tibet from a glacial ice lake. At least nine people died in Nepal, and more than a dozen are still missing. Parajuli explained that "when the Chinese side notices heavy rainfall forecasts in?the Tibet region, they will provide us with this forecast and these observations." "But not for extreme events such as landslides and avalanches." China started sharing heavy rain forecasts in Tibet via WeChat and email about a month back, according to Parajuli. TIMELINE FOR CALAMITY In an email sent to Nepali officials 12 days prior to the disaster, the World Meteorological Centre of China warned them that a monsoon was predicted for the region from August 14-19. China warned that "additional rainfall will likely occur across most of Nepal. We wish to bring your attention to secondary and cascading risks, such as landslides, flash floods, but not only," The Chinese Embassy said that China had been sharing data, including on the lake formed from debris left over after last week's disaster. Discussions over data sharing highlight the difficulty of monitoring, forecasting, and providing early warnings in a region dominated by geopolitical rivals such as China and India who control remote mountainous regions that hold vast quantities of snow and ice. According to Austin Lord, senior Fellow at Washington's Stimson Center, the collapse of a glacier in an area that was relatively unmonitored was the cause of Wednesday's disaster. Lack of bilateral cooperation did not play a major role in Nepal's reaction, said Lord. It's important to note that the lack of a properly articulated system is not an excuse. There is a very limited exchange of information between Nepal and China," Lord said, who is a member of a team that supports Nepal's Government on disaster risk and climate management. "Chinese researchers have a greater capacity and have more resources to monitor than the Nepalese side in general." Parajuli stated that the time it took for the torrent to reach Nepal is a good example of the importance of early warning systems. Surveillance footage has been used to define the disaster. Around 8:32 am Nepal time, on Wednesday morning, the flood swept through a border in Tibet, as people tried to flee. Parajuli received a phone call 26 minutes later from the head of Nepal's National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority alerting him about a flooding on the Trishuli River. Parajuli and his team discovered that a border monitoring station hadn't transmitted data since 8:40. He said that the team tried to contact stations downstream, but they were unable to post data. This led them to believe the devices had been washed out. Parajuli stated that after contacting local Nepali officials to confirm the flooding his team sent out a "public alert" to mobile phone users around 9:13. According to the Nepali government, at least four monitoring stations have been?destroyed' by the flood which swept 168 km (104miles) downstream of the Nepal-China border. The flood carried 57.4 millions cubic metres (2 billion cu feet) worth of water, or more than twice as much as usual. "HUGE GUSH of MUD Coming Straight at Us" According to the Stimson Center, the floodwaters that swept through Nepal damaged 19 bridges, 40 km of highway and more than 10 percent of the country's electricity generation capacity. "It wasn't ?water. Keshav Baral, a resident of Tupche Village about 25 km (15miles) downstream from the border, described a massive gush coming straight at them. "I tried grabbing my wife's hands, but she was swept by the mud." According to Nepali authorities, when a part of the glacier shattered, it crashed to the valley floor hundreds of meters below. This caused high-speed floods. The Hindu Kush Himalayas are home to millions of people, from Afghanistan to Myanmar. They contain the largest amount of ice in the world outside of the poles. There are 63,700 ice glaciers that cover nearly 56,000 sq km (22,200 sq miles), an area almost as large as Croatia. This ice can store up to 1,400 cubic miles (5,700 cubic km) of ice. According to Basanta Adhikari, Director of the Centre for Disaster Studies at Nepal's Tribhuvan University, the glacier that caused the recent disaster contained an estimated 5,000,000 cubic metres of ice, rock and mud. According to a study from 2023 by the International Centre 'for Integrated Mountain Development, climate change is driving glacier melting as snow cover decreases and snowfall becomes erratic. The centre's project states that these changes will increase the risk of flooding and landslides as mountain communities are also faced with hazards such as erosion and sedimentation. Many of Nepal's main river systems begin in Tibet and flow through one the most seismically-active and flood-prone areas of the world. Parajuli, Nepal's Minister of Home Affairs, said that Nepal will work with China on research and building systems to monitor avalanches as well as the release of water in glacial lakes - major risks to mountain communities. He said that his department would propose an agreement for data sharing with China along the lines of one Nepal has with India. This will allow more frequent information about precipitation, river levels and not only high-precipitation predictions. He said that Nepal would seek data from satellites every 10 minutes, so "we could warn and save our people." "Our primary goal is to not miss any future catastrophe."
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Radiant World's China ore head is leaving, according to sources
Two?sources who are familiar with the situation said that the head of China Iron Ore at Radiant World is leaving the company. The trading 'company' has been under scrutiny and many counterparties have stopped doing business with it. Sources said that Leon Jin was on his last day of work at the trading house, Monday. According to 'his LinkedIn profile', he joined Radiant World after spending more than 10 year with Trafigura. The sources requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak with media. Some banks have frozen accounts of 'Radiant World,' and some trading houses have cut ties with the trader over concerns that he had submitted invalid invoices in order to raise funding. Singapore Police Force announced on August 20, that it is investigating Radiant after receiving reports about the company. However, it didn't disclose who made the reports or the nature of the complaints. Radiant World didn't?respond immediately to a comment request. One source said that the company has six iron ore dealers in China. Radiant World was founded in the early 2000s and became one of the largest iron ore trader's around the world, handling more than 80 million metric tons of this key ingredient for steelmaking last year. This is according to the company website.
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Nepal, hit by devastating floods and renewed calls for Chinese data on early warnings
Experts and officials from Nepal and China met in Kathmandu three months before a wall made of water, rock and mud hurled down the Himalayan valley that borders Nepal and China and killed hundreds. The agenda for the meeting, held in the capital of Nepal on May 27, included 10 Nepali officials and 12 Chinese officials, including those from the Tibet region, where the disaster occurred. They discussed ways to strengthen cooperation between the two countries to monitor and respond effectively to hazards such as floods, bad weather, and glacier-related hazards. Participants called for joint measures to reduce risk, such as inventories of glacial lakes or hazard maps. After the meeting, two Nepali officials said they had not received as much data as they wanted on glacier risks and levels of water from China and that they were worried about their ability to prepare and anticipate major disasters. We wanted to know early if there were early glacier movements and early movement around the area. This is what we still want," said Sauhardra Joshi, an hydrologist from Nepal's Flood Forecasting Division who attended the meeting in May. Experts and officials have not placed blame on either side. The natural disaster will cost Nepal's economy a tenth of its annual output. Nepali officials claim that the priority for them is to intensify their cooperation with China. The Chinese foreign ministry has not responded to a question about the meeting in May or the request by Nepal for more information exchange. CHINA SAYS ITS DATA SHARE HAS BEEN TIMELESS Last week the collapse of a glacier in Nepal's Langtang range into the valley dividing Tibet and Nepal caused a devastating flood. More than 900 people died and more than 5,000 remain missing on both sides. Before the disaster, it is not clear what information China had about the condition of the glaciers around the region. This includes those outside of its borders. Fan Xuanmei is the director of Chengdu University of Technology's State?Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection. He told China Daily that it was extremely difficult to detect such failures in advance. The potential source areas are usually above 5,000 meters, which makes conventional field monitoring difficult. Snow and ice can limit satellite observations, and the steep terrain and snow cover can also make it difficult to monitor. Monitoring equipment must operate in cold temperatures and at high altitudes. Binod Parajuli said that at the meeting in Kathmandu the Chinese did not feel they had the authority to sign an agreement to satisfy Nepal's needs and asked for further discussion. The meeting was not reported in detail, nor were the Nepalese demands for greater cooperation to monitor the glaciers which threaten the communities on both sides. In a statement posted on X, the Chinese embassy in Nepal stated that Beijing and Kathmandu have been in constant contact and made "substantial" progress at the May meeting on promoting disaster information sharing across borders. Officials said that Nepal expressed similar concerns in 2013. However, experts and officials warned that what they described as slow progress wasn't a significant cause of the latest disaster. The Chinese Embassy rejected criticisms from Nepali social media users who claimed that China failed to give adequate warning. It said Chinese and foreign experts had significant difficulties monitoring hazards in remote Himalayan regions. It said that Chinese teams shared "important information" with Nepal in a "timely manner". Last year, Nepal expressed concern about a flooding in the same region, which was triggered by a sudden release of water in Tibet from a glacial ice lake. At least nine people died in Nepal, and more than a dozen are still missing. "When China sees heavy rainfall forecasts in the Tibet region, they will provide us with that forecast and these observations," Parajuli said. But "not for extreme events such as landslides and avalanches." China started sharing heavy rain forecasts in?Tibet via WeChat and email about a month back, Parajuli explained. TIMELINE TO CALAMITY In an email sent to Nepali officials 12 days prior to the disaster, the World Meteorological Centre of China warned in an email seen by that a monsoon was predicted for the region from August 14-19. China warned that "additional rainfall will likely occur across most of Nepal. We wish to bring your attention to secondary and cascading risks, such as landslides, flash floods, but not only," The Chinese Embassy said that China had been sharing data, including on the lake formed from debris left over after last week's disaster. Discussions over data sharing highlight the difficulty of monitoring, forecasting, and providing early warnings in a region dominated by geopolitical rivals such as China and India who control remote mountainous regions that hold vast quantities of snow and ice. According to Austin Lord, senior Fellow at Washington's Stimson Center, the collapse of a glacier in an area that was relatively unmonitored was the cause of Wednesday's disaster. Lack of bilateral cooperation did not play a major role in Nepal's reaction, said Lord. "That doesn't excuse the fact that it's not really a well articulated system." There is very little exchange between Nepalese and Chinese," said Lord. He is part of the team that supports Nepal's government in disaster and climate risk reduction. "Chinese researchers have a greater capacity and have?much more resources for monitoring than the Nepalese side in general." Parajuli stated that the time it took for the torrent to reach Nepal is a good example of the importance of early warning systems. Surveillance footage has been used to define the disaster. Around 8:32 am Nepal time, on Wednesday morning, the flood swept through a border in Tibet, as people tried to flee. Parajuli received a call 26 minutes later from the head of Nepal's National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority alerting him about a flooding on the Trishuli River. Parajuli and his team discovered that a border station monitoring station hadn't transmitted data since 8:40. He said that the team tried contacting downstream stations but they were unable to post data. This led them to believe the devices had been washed out. Parajuli stated that after confirming the flooding with local Nepali authorities, his team sent an alert to all mobile phone users around 9:13. According to the Nepali government, at least four monitoring stations have been destroyed by the flood which swept 168 km downstream of the Nepal-China border. The flood carried 57.4 millions cubic metres (2 billion cu feet) worth of water – more than twice as much as usual. "HUGE GUSH of MUD Coming Straight at Us" According to the Stimson Center, the floodwaters that swept through Nepal damaged 19 bridges, 40 km of highway and more than 10 percent of the country's electricity generation capacity. "It wasn't water. Keshav Prasad baral, of Tupche village in the region of Tupche, 25 km (15miles) downstream from the border, said that it was a huge?gush' of mud. "I tried to grab the hand of my wife, but she was swept by the mud." According to Nepali authorities, when part of the glacier shattered and crashed to the valley's floor hundreds of meters below, it unleashed flash floods of high speed. The Hindu Kush Himalayas are home to millions of people, from Afghanistan to Myanmar. They contain the largest amount of ice in the world outside of the poles. There are 63,700 ice glaciers that cover nearly 56,000 sq km (22,200 sq miles), an area almost as large as Croatia. This ice can store up to 1,400 cubic miles (5,700 cubic km) of ice. Basanta Adhikari, Director of the Centre for Disaster Studies at Nepal's Tribhuvan University, says that the glacier chunk responsible for the recent disaster contained an estimated 5,000,000 cubic metres of rock and ice. According to a study from 2023 by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, climate change is driving glacier melting as snow cover decreases and snowfall becomes erratic. The centre's project states that these changes will increase the risk of flooding and landslides as mountain communities are also faced with hazards such as erosion and sedimentation. Many of Nepal's main river systems begin in Tibet and flow through one the most seismically-active and flood-prone areas of the world. Parajuli, Nepal's Minister of Home Affairs, said that Nepal will work with China on research and building systems to monitor avalanches as well as the release of water in glacial lakes - major risks to mountain communities. He said that his department would propose an agreement for data sharing with China along the lines of one Nepal has with India. This will allow more frequent information about precipitation, river levels and not only high-precipitation predictions. He said that Nepal would seek data from satellites every 10 minutes, so "we could warn and save our people." "Our primary goal is to not miss any future catastrophe."
Japan's oil imports rose 17% in July, as US supplies jumped
Japan's crude oil imports increased by 17% from the previous year in July, as a result of a surge in U.S. Official data released on Monday showed that?shipments, a resurgence in Saudi Arabian purchases and lower supplies from Middle Eastern producers were offset by a rise in?supplies.
The Ministry of Trade, Economy and Industry reported that imports increased to 2,38 million barrels a day (11.72 millions kilolitres) for the second consecutive month despite disruptions caused by the U.S./Israeli war against Iran.
Imports to?the Middle East dropped 21.4% from July. The United Arab Emirates, Japan's two largest suppliers, and Saudi Arabia both saw a decline of 18.4% and 7.4% respectively.
The drop was however less than the declines of 68.7% in April, 49.7% in may and 32.4% June.
Imports from the United States jumped five-fold in comparison to a year ago, reaching?about 879.800 bpd (4.3 million kl). Japan imported crude oil from Ecuador, Mexico, Vietnam, and South Sudan.
In?2025, the?Middle East will account for 94% of Japan’s crude oil imports. In July, this?share dropped to?58.9%. This was the 10th consecutive decline year-on-year.
(source: Reuters)