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How close is Iran to having nuclear weapons?

As its 2015 nuclear offer with significant powers has worn down for many years, Iran has actually expanded and accelerated its nuclear program, reducing the time it would need to build a nuke if it picked to, though it rejects wishing to. A senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards leader stated on Thursday that Iran could review its nuclear doctrine amidst Israeli hazards. While it was uncertain exactly what he implied, and that term tends to refer to countries that, unlike Iran, have nuclear weapons, listed below is an overview of where Iran stands.

COLLAPSE OF THE DEAL AND BREAKOUT TIME

The 2015 offer presented stringent limitations on Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of global sanctions against Tehran. It slashed Iran's stock of enriched uranium, leaving it only with a small amount enriched to as much as 3.67% purity, far from the approximately 90% pureness that is weapons grade.

The United States stated at the time that a main aim was to increase the time Iran would require to produce enough fissile product for an a-bomb - the greatest single hurdle in a. weapons programme - to a minimum of a year.

In 2018 then-President Donald Trump pulled the United States. out of the offer, reimposing sanctions on Tehran that slashed its. oil sales and damaged its economy. In 2019, Iran started. breaching the restrictions on its nuclear activities and after that. pressed far beyond them.

It has actually now breached all the deal's essential constraints,. consisting of on where, with what makers and to what level it can. improve uranium, along with how much product it can stockpile.

Its stock of enriched uranium, which was capped at 202.8 kg. under the deal, stood at 5.5 tonnes in February, according to. the latest quarterly report by the U.N. nuclear guard dog that. inspects Iran's enrichment plants.

Iran is now enhancing uranium to as much as 60% purity and has. enough product enriched to that level, if improved even more, for. two nuclear weapons, according to the International Atomic. Energy Company's theoretical meaning.

That implies Iran's so-called breakout time - the time it. would need to produce sufficient weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear. bomb - is close to zero, likely a matter of weeks or days.

The IAEA inspects Iran's stated enrichment sites: an. above-ground plant and a bigger, underground one at its Natanz. complex and another buried inside a mountain at Fordow.

As a result of Iran ceasing to implement elements of the. offer, the IAEA can no longer fully monitor Iran's production and. stock of centrifuges, devices that enhance uranium, and it. can no longer conduct snap examinations. That has prompted. speculation about whether Iran could have established a trick. enrichment site, but there are no concrete indications of one.

WEAPONISATION

Aside from uranium enrichment, there is the concern of how. long it would take Iran to produce the rest of a nuclear weapon. and possibly make it small sufficient to put in a delivery system. like a ballistic rocket, needs to it select to. This is much. harder to approximate as it is less clear how much knowledge Iran. has.

U.S. intelligence firms and the IAEA believe Iran had actually a. coordinated nuclear weapons program that it stopped in 2003. It. worked on aspects of weaponisation and some work continued until. as late as 2009, the IAEA discovered in a 2015 report.

Iran denies ever having a nuclear weapons programme, though. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has said that if it wished to world. leaders wouldn't be able to stop us.

Quotes of how long Iran would need for weaponisation. usually differ in between months and about a year.

In March 2023 the top U.S. military officer at the time,. General Mark Milley, affirmed to Congress that weaponisation. would take Iran a number of months, though he did not state what that. evaluation was based on.

In a quarterly report in February this year, the IAEA stated:. Public declarations made in Iran regarding its technical. abilities to produce nuclear weapons only increase the. Director General's concerns about the correctness and. efficiency of Iran's safeguards statements.

Diplomats said those declarations consisted of a tv. interview by Iran's former nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi in. which he compared producing a nuclear weapon to building a cars and truck,. and stated Iran knew how to make the parts needed.

(source: Reuters)