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REFILE-Shell anticipates 50% rise in international LNG need by 2040

Worldwide need for liquefied gas (LNG) is approximated to increase by more than 50% by 2040, as China and nations in South and Southeast Asia use LNG to support their economic growth, Shell said on Wednesday.

The marketplace stays structurally tight, with prices and cost volatility staying above historical averages, constraining development, the world's biggest LNG trader said in its 2024 yearly LNG market outlook.

Demand for natural gas has peaked in some regions, consisting of Europe, Japan and Australia in the 2010s, however continues to increase internationally, and is anticipated to reach around 625-685 million metric loads per year in 2040, Shell stated. That is a little lower than Shell's 2023 estimates of a global need increase to 700 million heaps by 2040.

While things are reasonably well balanced and appeared reasonably comfortable today, the market is still quite vulnerable, Steve Hill, executive vice president for Shell Energy, informed analysts on a call following the outlook report.

We have a structurally tight market that's been balanced by near-term market weak point for where we see fragility and volatility continuing, Hill stated.

CHINA SUPREMACY

Shell said that global demand for LNG is approximated to increase by more than 50% by 2040, as China and countries in South and Southeast Asia utilize LNG to support their financial development.

China, which in 2023 surpassed Japan as the world's top LNG importer, is likely to dominate LNG need development this decade as its industry looks for to cut carbon emissions by changing from coal to gas, the report said.

China is the market that we are most bullish about this years. And one of the factors for that is the massive amount of new gas facilities that is coming on stream at the minute, Hill told analysts.

China's 2024 LNG imports are anticipated to rebound to nearly 80 million loads, from about 70 million tons in 2023, according to ICIS and Rystad forecasts, going beyond 2021's record 78.79 million tons.

From 2030 to 2040, declining domestic gas production in parts of South Asia and Southeast Asia could drive a surge in demand for LNG as these economies require fuel for gas-fired power plants or market.

Shell's report predicted a balance in between increasing need and new supply for those regions, however said substantial investments would be required in gas import infrastructure.

In the medium term, latent need for LNG-- especially in Asia-- is set to take in brand-new supply that is anticipated to come on to the marketplace in the second half of the 2020s, the report stated.

As supplies were ample last year as the world market began to recover from the major disturbance linked to the start of the Ukraine war in 2022, costs have alleviated.

Asian spot rates << LNG-AS > balanced around $18 per million British thermal systems (mmBtu) in 2023, alleviating from an all-time high of $70/mmBtu in 2022.

Costs fell even more this year and remain below $10/mmBtu,. encouraging purchasers from China to Bangladesh to secure new term. products from Qatar and the United States.

Hill said that long-term LNG contracts which Europe has. signed up until now will not fill a demand-supply space for the rest of. this decade, adding that there was a structural shortage of 50. million to 70 million metric lots a year for the rest of the. decade or more that Europe requires to protect.

In the U.S. market, he said that a prolonged restriction on brand-new LNG. export projects would have rather an effect on the fast-growing. global market.

The ban is probably fine if it lasts a year or two, however if. it was a long-term ban, then it would have rather an effect on. the market, Hill told analysts.

(source: Reuters)