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The oil price is stable, but rising production offsets the disruptions in Russia's supply
The oil prices were in a narrow range on Monday, as concerns about the rising production and the impact that U.S. Tariffs will have on demand outweighed supply disruptions caused by intensified airstrikes between Russia and Ukraine. Brent crude dropped 12 cents or 0.18% to $67.36 a barge by 0046 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude was down 13 cents or 0.2% at $63.88 a barge. Due to the U.S. Bank Holiday, trading is expected to be muted. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, vowed to retaliate on Sunday by ordering further strikes in Russia following Russian drone attacks against power plants in northern and south Ukraine. Both countries have intensified their airstrikes over the past few weeks, focusing on energy infrastructure and disrupting Russian crude oil exports. According to ANZ analysts, the markets remain concerned about Russian oil flow. Weekly shipments from Russian ports have dropped to a 4-week low of 2,72 million barrels a day. The poll conducted on Friday indicated that oil prices will not rise much from their current levels in this year. This is because rising production from the top producers increases the risk of an excess, and U.S. Tariff threats are weighing on demand growth. An official survey released on Sunday showed that China's manufacturing sector shrank for the fifth consecutive month in August. This suggests that producers are holding off amid uncertainty about a possible trade agreement with the U.S., and weak domestic demand. Investors will be watching the meeting on September 7 between members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies to get more clues about the rising production from OPEC+. According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude production reached a record in June. It increased by 133,000 barrels a day, to 13,58 million bpd. The U.S. Labor Market Report this week will provide a vital read on the health of the economy and test investors' belief that interest rates are soon to be cut. This view has boosted their appetite for riskier investments such as commodities. (Reporting and editing by Himani Sarkar; Florence Tan)
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This week, the second opposition leader to die in state custody in Nicaragua has been reported.
Local media and opposition parties reported that a critic of the authoritarian Nicaraguan government died in custody two weeks after being arrested. This comes days after another longtime critic died in detention. The deaths suggest that President Daniel Ortega, and his wife, Rosario Murillo (co-president), have intensified their crackdown on dissent, and arrested hundreds of opponents over the past few years. Since 2019, five government critics have reportedly died in government custody. Carlos Cardenas was arrested in August during police raids against government opponents. He was previously imprisoned in 2018 following a social uprising. On Saturday, the Great Nicaraguan Opposition Confederation said that the "dictatorship had handed another dead political prisoner over to his family." The Nicaraguan Government did not respond immediately to a comment request. On Monday, Nicaraguan leaders of the opposition condemned the death of Mauricio Alonso, a political activist who was detained by authorities in mid-July. Gabriela Selser, Diego Ore, and Nick Zieminski edited the story.
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FT reports that Rolls-Royce is weighing funding options for a small nuclear unit including an IPO.
The Financial Times reported that Rolls-Royce Holdings was exploring financing options for its small reactor unit. This included the possibility of a public offering. The report said that the board of directors is not in a hurry to make a decision, and the talks with banks and investment houses are still at an early stage. The Rolls-Royce SMR unit has been selected by the British government to build the first Small Modular Reactors in its plan to accelerate the decarbonisation power network starting from mid-2030. The British engineering company, which owns the majority of the unit, is planning to build three nuclear reactors. The British government has pledged to invest 2.5 billion pounds ($3.4billion) in the SMR program over the next four-year period, with the aim of launching one of Europe's earliest small-scale nuclear industries. SMRs are being pursued by other countries, including the United States of America, Canada, Romania, and the Czech Republic. If the British project is successful, it could create a global market. Rolls-Royce SMR and Rolls-Royce did not respond immediately to requests for comments outside of regular business hours. Surbhi misra, Bengaluru (Reporting and Editing by Bernadettebaum and Alex Richardson).
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Ukrainian former parliament speaker Parubiy is killed in Lviv
Andriy Parubiy, a former Ukrainian parliamentary speaker, was killed in Lviv (west Ukraine) on Saturday. A manhunt is underway to find the assailant. The office of the Prosecutor-General said that a gunman shot several times at Parubiy and killed him instantly. It said that the attacker fled, and a manhunt had been launched. Parubiy was 54 years old and a member in the parliament. He was the speaker of the chamber from April 2016 until August 2019 and was also one of the protest leaders who called for closer relations with the European Union during the 2013-14 period. From February to August of 2014, he was the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council. This was a time when fighting broke out in eastern Ukraine and Russia annexed Crimea. The officials did not immediately indicate whether this murder was directly linked to Russia's conflict in Ukraine. "Minister for Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko, and Prosecutor-General Ruslan Kravchenko just reported the first circumstances known of an horrific murder in Lviv. Andriy Paraubiy was killed," Volodymyr Zelenskiy wrote in a letter to X. He expressed his condolences to Parubiy's loved ones and family, adding: "All the necessary means and forces are being used in the investigation and the search for the murderer." The shooting was reported to the national police at about noon (0900 GMT). Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovyi stressed the importance of finding the attacker and determining the circumstances of this attack. He wrote on Telegram: "This is about security in a war-torn country, where we can see that there are no places completely safe." TRIBUTES POUR IN The government and parliament colleagues paid tribute to Parubiy for his contribution to Ukraine’s struggle for independence and sovereignty as one of the leaders in the protests that became known as Euromaidan in 2013-14. On Telegram, the former president Petro Poroshenko stated that the murder of Parubiy was "a shot at the heart" of Ukraine. Parubiy was a member the parliamentary committee for national security, defense and intelligence. "Andriy is a great person and a friend." "They are afraid, and that's why they want revenge," he said. He praised Parubiy for his contribution to the building of the Ukrainian Army. In a Telegram statement, Andrii Sybiha, the Foreign Minister, described Parubiy, as "a patriot, a statesman, who has made a tremendous contribution to the defense of Ukraine's independence, freedom and sovereignty." He is a man that belongs in history. The Ukrainian police did not provide any information about the identity or motives of the killer. Yulia Shvyrydenko, Ukrainian Prime Minister, called for an immediate investigation into the murder. She described it as "a profound loss" to the country. She wrote: "You have always been a patriot and contributed greatly to the creation of our country."
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OWC Gets Cable Engineering Job for GreenVolt Floating Wind Farm
Renewable energy consultancy OWC has secured cable engineering support job for the 560 MW GreenVolt floating wind farm offshore Scotland, being developed by Flotation Energy and Vårgrønn, a joint venture firm created by Plenitude (Eni) and HitecVision.OWC’s scope of work includes cable engineering for both offshore and onshore cables.The subsea scope focuses primarily on the export cable, but OWC will also support inter array cable system design and alignment.The onshore engineering scope includes technical responsibility for the cable that runs from the landfall site near Aberdeen to an onshore substation.“It is a privilege to support a project that is setting new standards for floating wind and local content. Our contribution demonstrates the value of U.K.-based engineering talent and strengthens our position as a go-to partner for complex offshore wind developments,” said Will Cleverly, CEO of OWC.The GreenVolt project will deliver renewable electricity to oil and gas platforms, replacing existing natural gas and diesel power generation, while also providing power to the U.K. grid.The project has received support as part of Crown Estate Scotland’s Innovation and Targeted Oil & Gas (INTOG) leasing round.
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Elliott Affiliate's bid of $5.89 billion recommended as the winner of Citgo's auction
According to documents filed by the officer overseeing sale, a $5.89 billion offer from an affiliate hedge fund Elliott Investment Management was recommended as the winning bid in a U.S.-court-organized auction for shares of the Venezuelan-owned refiner Citgo Petroleum. Robert Pincus, a court officer, made the recommendation despite an attempt by a Gold Reserve subsidiary to sweeten their $7.4 billion deal earlier in the week. Pincus, in a ruling earlier this month said that an improved offer from Elliott's subsidiary Amber Energy was superior. The court then gave the Gold Reserve Group three days to match the bid. Pincus stated on Friday that Gold Reserve's Dalinar Energy transaction "didn't match or exceed the Amber Sale transaction and therefore the Amber Sale transaction continues to be a superior proposition." The proceeds of the auction are expected to compensate a few creditors who have been fighting in U.S. court since 2017 for nearly $19 billion after Venezuela expropriated its assets and defaulted. (Reporting and editing by Julia Symmes Cobb; Marianna Pararaga)
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California waives penalties for high profits from refineries
California's Energy Commission decided on Friday to set aside for a temporary period penalties for excessive refinery profits, which were adopted in response to the rise of gasoline prices over $8 per gallon by 2022. Phillips 66 Los Angeles refinery, which is preparing for a permanent shutdown by the end of next week, has delayed implementing penalties by five years. In an email, the staff of the Commission stated that "the fact is that supply is decreasing faster than demand and we need them to align: this means aggressively pursuing a transition to zero-emission vehicles while slowing down supply loss." California's Democratic governor Gavin Newsom proposed the penalties but has now changed direction due to fears of price spikes after 2026 following the closure of Phillips 66 refinery, and a plant in the San Francisco area operated by Valero Energy Corp. Both companies said declining gasoline demand promoted by state's policies in favor of non-fossil-fuel-powered vehicles made the once-lucrative California market untenable in the long-term. California has set a goal of banning the sale fossil fuel-powered cars by 2035. Western States Petroleum Association, which called for a 20-year delay in the penalties, said that global oil markets determine prices and not state policies. Consumer Watchdog, a group within the state of California, has criticized officials for their change in policy. Consumer Watchdog's Jamie Court wrote in a letter before the vote that by removing the penalty, California officials were opening the market up to the price spikes of 2022. The commission also adopted policies to stabilize California’s refinery capacity and increase motor fuel imports, as well as to promote the development of the oil reserves in the state. California is separated from U.S. refinery centers in the Midwest and along the Gulf Coast by the Rocky Mountains. The state depends on the refineries in Washington and California as well as Asian imports.
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California waives penalties for high profits from refineries
California's Energy Commission decided on Friday to set aside for a temporary period penalties for excessive refinery profits, which were adopted in response to the rise of gasoline prices over $8 per gallon by 2022. The delay of five years in implementing penalties comes at a time when Phillips 66 Los Angeles refinery prepares to start shutting down production next week, ahead of a complete closure. California's Democratic governor Gavin Newsom proposed the penalties but has now changed direction due to fears of price spikes after 2026 following the closure of a Phillips 66 plant and a Valero Energy Corp. plant in the San Francisco area next year. Both companies said declining gasoline demand promoted by state's policies in favor of non-fossil-fuel-powered vehicles made the once-lucrative California market untenable in the long-term. California has set a goal of banning the sale fossil fuel-powered cars by 2035. Western States Petroleum Association, which called for a 20-year delay in the penalty, supported this decision. WSPA has criticized the Energy Commission's claim that the threat of fines had kept gas prices low in the State. Catherine Reheis Boyd, WSPA president, said late last year that "no mandates, rules or decrees have been issued by Sacramento since 2019." Consumer Watchdog, a group within the state of California, has criticized officials for their change of direction. Consumer Watchdog's Jamie Court wrote in a letter before the vote that by removing the penalty, California officials were opening the market up to the price spikes of 2022. The commission also adopted policies to stabilize California’s refinery capacity and increase motor fuel imports, as well as to promote the development of the oil reserves in the state. California is separated from U.S. refinery centers in the Midwest and along the Gulf Coast by the Rocky Mountains. The state depends on the refineries in Washington and California as well as Asian imports.
REFILE-Shell anticipates 50% rise in international LNG need by 2040
Worldwide need for liquefied gas (LNG) is approximated to increase by more than 50% by 2040, as China and nations in South and Southeast Asia use LNG to support their economic growth, Shell said on Wednesday.
The marketplace stays structurally tight, with prices and cost volatility staying above historical averages, constraining development, the world's biggest LNG trader said in its 2024 yearly LNG market outlook.
Demand for natural gas has peaked in some regions, consisting of Europe, Japan and Australia in the 2010s, however continues to increase internationally, and is anticipated to reach around 625-685 million metric loads per year in 2040, Shell stated. That is a little lower than Shell's 2023 estimates of a global need increase to 700 million heaps by 2040.
While things are reasonably well balanced and appeared reasonably comfortable today, the market is still quite vulnerable, Steve Hill, executive vice president for Shell Energy, informed analysts on a call following the outlook report.
We have a structurally tight market that's been balanced by near-term market weak point for where we see fragility and volatility continuing, Hill stated.
CHINA SUPREMACY
Shell said that global demand for LNG is approximated to increase by more than 50% by 2040, as China and countries in South and Southeast Asia utilize LNG to support their financial development.
China, which in 2023 surpassed Japan as the world's top LNG importer, is likely to dominate LNG need development this decade as its industry looks for to cut carbon emissions by changing from coal to gas, the report said.
China is the market that we are most bullish about this years. And one of the factors for that is the massive amount of new gas facilities that is coming on stream at the minute, Hill told analysts.
China's 2024 LNG imports are anticipated to rebound to nearly 80 million loads, from about 70 million tons in 2023, according to ICIS and Rystad forecasts, going beyond 2021's record 78.79 million tons.
From 2030 to 2040, declining domestic gas production in parts of South Asia and Southeast Asia could drive a surge in demand for LNG as these economies require fuel for gas-fired power plants or market.
Shell's report predicted a balance in between increasing need and new supply for those regions, however said substantial investments would be required in gas import infrastructure.
In the medium term, latent need for LNG-- especially in Asia-- is set to take in brand-new supply that is anticipated to come on to the marketplace in the second half of the 2020s, the report stated.
As supplies were ample last year as the world market began to recover from the major disturbance linked to the start of the Ukraine war in 2022, costs have alleviated.
Asian spot rates << LNG-AS > balanced around $18 per million British thermal systems (mmBtu) in 2023, alleviating from an all-time high of $70/mmBtu in 2022.
Costs fell even more this year and remain below $10/mmBtu,. encouraging purchasers from China to Bangladesh to secure new term. products from Qatar and the United States.
Hill said that long-term LNG contracts which Europe has. signed up until now will not fill a demand-supply space for the rest of. this decade, adding that there was a structural shortage of 50. million to 70 million metric lots a year for the rest of the. decade or more that Europe requires to protect.
In the U.S. market, he said that a prolonged restriction on brand-new LNG. export projects would have rather an effect on the fast-growing. global market.
The ban is probably fine if it lasts a year or two, however if. it was a long-term ban, then it would have rather an effect on. the market, Hill told analysts.
(source: Reuters)