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Gold nears two-week high as Fed cuts bets on tepid US Data
Gold prices reached a two-week-high on Wednesday after positive U.S. data reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in the coming month. This supported non-yielding gold. At 1019 GMT the spot gold price was up by 0.8% at $4,161.57 an ounce, its highest level since November 14. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery were up 0.4% to $4,157.40 an ounce. Market participants are beginning to price again a U.S. interest rate cut for December," stated UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Bullion is a non-yielding investment that tends to do well in environments with low interest rates. Staunovo stated that "we continue to see a further upside in near-term, with an end of year forecast of $4.200/oz, and $4.500/oz by mid-next year." The data released on Tuesday revealed that U.S. retailers sales rose less than anticipated in September, while producer prices were also in line with expectations. U.S. consumer sentiment also declined in November, as consumers became more worried about their finances and jobs. The Fed's policymakers made a series dovish remarks in recent weeks, which prompted the release of these data. The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders now expect an 83% probability of a Fed rate reduction next month, as opposed to 30% one week ago. A report stated that White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett was the leading candidate to become the next Fed Chair, confirming expectations for a dovish approach to policy preferred by President Donald Trump. Investors are now awaiting the U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Report due later on Wednesday. This report is a crucial gauge of labor market health as well as Fed policy prospects. Deutsche Bank has raised its gold forecast for 2026 to $4450 per ounce, up from $4,000 an ounce, citing stable investor flows and persistent demand by central banks. Silver spot rose 1.7%, to $52.28 an ounce. Platinum was up by 0.4%, at $1,559.03; palladium dropped 0.2%, to $1,395. Mark Potter edited the report by Noel John, who reported from Bengaluru.
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Hong Kong: Four people killed after fire destroys high-rise residential buildings
Emergency services were battling to put out the fire when four people died. A massive fire had engulfed several high-rise buildings in Hong Kong's northern Tai Po District on Wednesday. Thick grey smoke was billowing from the complex as it burned. RTHK, citing the police, reported that several people were still trapped in the towers. Two people suffered severe burns and are now in critical condition. Some firefighters were also injured while trying to extinguish the fires that had engulfed the 31-storey buildings. The people gathered in dismay on an overhead walkway to watch smoke billow from the buildings. Some of them were covered in bamboo scaffolding. Witnesses reported that scores of fire engines, ambulances and other emergency vehicles lined the road beneath the complex. Fire Service Department said it has not yet been able to determine the number of people still inside. The Tai Po Fire Department said that it received reports of a fire at Wang Fuk Court around 2:51 pm (0651 GMT). The fire was upgraded to a no. At 3:34 pm, it was upgraded to a No. Wang Fuk Court consists of eight blocks and provides close to 2,000 housing units. The exterior of several towers is covered with bamboo scaffolding. Hong Kong is the only place in the world that still uses bamboo scaffolding for construction. Hong Kong Transport Department reported that an entire section on the Tai Po Road, one of Hong Kong’s two main highways has been closed due to the fire and buses have been diverted. Reporting by Joyce Zhou and Tyrone Siu; Writing by Farah master; Editing and editing by Christopher Cushing, Sharon Singleton and Sharon Singleton
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Brazil's environment minister and climate summit star faces political struggles at home
Brazilian Environment Minister Marina Silva fought tears while global diplomats applauded for several minutes Saturday at the closing plenary session of the COP30 climate summit. She told the delegates in the Amazon rainforest town of Belem that "we've made modest progress, even if it was modest." Then she raised her fist defiantly above her head. "The courage to face the climate crisis is a result of persistence and collective efforts." The Brazilian hosts were able to release their frustrations in the tense room where many nations expressed their displeasure with a deal which failed to mention fossil-fuels, even though they praised more funding for developing countries adapting to climate changes. Despite its bittersweet result, COP30 was the culmination of years of hard work by President Luiz inacio Lula and the Environment Minister to restore Brazil's global leadership on climate policy that had been weakened by a predecessor from the far right who denied climate science. In Brasilia a more harsh political reality is looming. Congress has been trying to eliminate much of Brazil's environmental permits system. The Amazon has a large organized crime problem. People who want to clear forests have also found ways to infiltrate groups that promote sustainable development. All of this presents new threats to Brazil’s vast ecosystems. Lula and the minister he appointed are forced to fight a back-up battle to protect the largest rainforest in the world. Scientists and experts in policy warn that urgent action is required to stop deforestation, before climate change turns the Amazon rainforest into a hotbed. The tensions between the conservative Congress and Lula, a leftist, have been rising ahead of next year’s general elections. Forest land is at greater risk during election seasons. Silva is still adamant that Brazil can achieve its goal of reducing deforestation by zero by 2030. She said, "I must survive if I am in the eye of a storm." MIXED RECORD Many at the COP30 thought Silva was more of a rock star than a policymaker. She was born in 1958 to slum rubber tappers in Acre, Amazonia. She, too, overcame poverty and a lack of education to gain global recognition. She slowed down the destruction of her native forest as his environment minister between 2003 and 2008. Silva, who had been estranged from Lula's Workers Party for more than a decade, reunited in 2022. Many environmentalists believe that her return is the most significant move in Lula's current term on climate policy. He has cast his agenda, as an "ecological transform" of Brazil's economic. This is in stark contrast to the deforestation that occurred under Jair Bolsonaro's predecessor, who was a right-winger and favored mining and ranching within the rainforest. Juliano Assuncao is the executive director of Brazil's Climate Policy Institute, a think tank. He said: "At times, we have an Environment Ministry that is deeply committed to these matters. But at critical moments, it has not been able rely on the support of federal government as it should." Lula's administration has reduced deforestation by half in the Amazon. This makes it easier to fine those who deforest and to deny them public credit. New policies encourage reforestation, sustainable farming practices and cattle tracking. Critics say Lula’s government did not do enough to stop Congress from undermining environmental protections and blocking recognition of Indigenous land. The lawmakers have also attacked an agreement between the private sector and the Amazon to protect it from soy farming. Lula's critics admit that he only has limited influence. The Senate passed a bill to revamp environmental permits after a government agency took too long to grant oil exploration licenses off the Amazon coast. Lula vetoed most of the bill but lawmakers promised to restore atleast part of it by this week. Silva resigned over disagreements with cabinet members during Lula's previous mandate. Lula is quick to defend Silva and vice versa. In a recent interview at her Brasilia offices, Silva said that Lula hadn't changed but that the planet was warming up, which has increased the urgency for climate policy. She said, "Reality has changed." "People who follow scientific criteria, common sense and ethics have been following this gradual change." HIER TEMPERATURES, MORE GUNS Earth's hottest ever year was 2024. Massive fires in Amazon rainforest wiped out more trees than bulldozers and chainsaws combined for the first. Brazilians who want to protect the Amazon face more than just a warming climate and a sceptical Congress. Jair Schmitt said that the organized crime in the Amazon region has increased after years of limited funding, which left fewer federal employees to fight back. He said that Ibama agents were more frequently involved in gunfights with gangs. This suggests there are more guns in the area than ever before. He said that "Rifles were not so easy to find in the past." Reports have revealed that illegal deforesters are also infiltrating Amazon supply chains, touting their sustainability. This includes biofuels and carbon credits. Marcio Astirni, head of Climate Observatory and an advocacy group, said that Brazil must strengthen its political will to overcome these challenges. He added that "we have all the tools we need to succeed." (Reporting and editing by Brad Haynes, David Gregorio, and Manuela Andreoni)
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Oil prices hold steady after a one-month low due to high supply expectations
Investors assessed the prospects of an oversupply, and the talks about a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Brent crude futures fell 5 cents, to $62.43 per barrel at 0904 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures rose 1 cent to $57.96. Priyanka Sahdeva, an analyst at Phillip Nova, said: "The market is fundamentally skewed downwards. Investors are increasingly pricing in a 2026 oversupply and there's no compelling demand catalyst to offset that." Brent crude and WTI both settled down 89 cents on Tuesday, after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy informed European leaders that the U.S. was willing to support a framework for ending Russia's war. The deal, if finalised by the end of this year, could quickly dismantle Western energy sanctions against Russia. This could drive WTI prices up to $55, according to Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst. The market is waiting for clarity. However, if the talks fail, it appears that prices will fall. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he had instructed his representatives to hold separate meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin as well as Ukrainian officials. Zelenskiy, according to a Ukrainian official, could travel to the U.S. within the next few days in order for a deal finalisation. Britain, Europe and America have recently tightened sanctions against Russia and Indian oil purchases are expected to reach their lowest level in three years by December. Market sources reported on Tuesday that American Petroleum Institute data showed that U.S. crude stock levels fell while fuel stocks rose. A poll had predicted that U.S. crude stock levels would rise by 1,86 million barrels during the week ending November 21. The Energy Information Administration will release official stockpile information on Wednesday, at 10:30 am. ET (1530 GMT). Reporting by Colleen Goodman in Singapore and Siyi Liu from Beijing
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Gold nears two-week high as Fed cuts bets on tepid US Data
Gold prices reached a two-week-high on Wednesday after positive U.S. data reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in the coming month. This supported non-yielding gold. At 0843 GMT the spot gold price was up 0.7% at $4,159.23 an ounce, its highest level since November 14. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery were up 0.4% to $4,155.90 an ounce. Market participants are beginning to price again in a U.S. interest rate cut for December. "Lower interest rates are generally positive for yellow metal," said UBS Analyst Giovanni Staunovo. We continue to see further gains in the near-term, with an end-of-year forecast of $4.200/oz, and $4.500/oz by mid-next year. The data released on Tuesday revealed that U.S. retailers sales rose less than anticipated in September, while producer prices were also in line with expectations. U.S. consumer sentiment also declined in November, as consumers became more worried about their finances and jobs. The Fed's policymakers made a series dovish remarks in recent weeks, which prompted the release of these data. The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders now expect an 83% probability of a Fed rate reduction next month. This is up from 30% just a week earlier. Bullion is a non-yielding investment that tends to do well in environments with low interest rates. A report that White House economist Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner for the position of the next Fed Chair has also added to the support for the metal. This confirms expectations about a dovish approach in policy, as favored by Donald Trump. Investors are now awaiting the U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Report due later on Wednesday. This report is a crucial gauge of labor market health as well as Fed policy prospects. (Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru Editing by Mark Potter) Reporting by Noel John, Bengaluru Editing Mark Potter
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ASIA COPPER WOMEN'S WEEK - The copper bull of Mercuria predicts new price records in the future
By Dylan Duan Amy Lv, and Lewis Jackson SHANGHAI (Nov 26) - The global copper market will be squeezed again next year. This will push prices of refined metal and concentrate to new heights, said the head of Mercuria's metals research on Wednesday. Nicholas Snowdon, the high-profile copper bear at Mercuria in Geneva, predicted that next year's global copper market, where copper concentrate is melted down to metal, would be in deficit by 500,000 tons, similar to 2025. He said that the improved estimate from his forecast in May of a 700,000-ton deficit was due to a limited growth of supply and increased demand from new smelters located outside China. Snowdon said at the World Copper Conference Asia2025 in Shanghai, China's commercial center. "It is a market which has experienced a significant shock to supply this year. It's a shock that's... likely to continue into next year." He said that the rush to import copper to the United States before tariffs was causing a large stockpile of cathode, which could reach 90% in the first quarter next year. Snowdon stated that the London Metal Exchange prices for refined copper will have to increase to bring metals back onto global markets which are susceptible to low inventories. Snowdon stated that the cathode markets are now surplus between 350,000 and 400,000 tonnes, which is a significant revision to his forecast in May of a shortfall of 300,000 tons. Mercuria, along with other energy traders like BGN and Gunvor are expanding into the metals market, betting on structural changes to global energy systems. Snowdon reported that Mercuria had invested almost $2 billion in the last 12 months and traded 1 million tons metal and 1.5 millions tons of concentrate. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez, Amy Lv, and Dylan Duan from Shanghai)
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India's informal workers are losing business in Delhi's eWaste hub
India formalizes recycling to secure minerals E-waste is now being disposed of in licensed factories, not neighbourhoods Informal recyclers fear being left out Bhasker Tripathi She makes a few hundred rupees (about $2) a day from the recycling of electronics that small scrap dealers bring in. The supply of eWaste is shrinking, and Shahjahan’s income is decreasing as more scrap is moved to licensed plants at the edge of the city. What will we do if the work stops? Shahjahan, a 32-year-old woman who gave only her first name, said: India has stepped up its efforts to curb informal recycling, in an effort to recover more minerals, such as copper, which is used in solar panels and batteries, and in electric vehicles. The transition from informal recycling to formal recycling will result in the loss of jobs and income for people living in Delhi's Seelampur District. This neighbourhood has been sustained by work and income for decades. According to a report published by Delhi-based Toxic Links in 2019, more than half of Delhi’s 5,000 informal recycling sites for e-waste are located in Seelampur. This provides work for tens and thousands of people. SEARCH FOR MINERALS According to the U.N. Global E-Waste Monitor, 2024, India was the third-largest producer of electronic waste in the world after China and the United States. Government data shows that it reached 1,75 million tonnes in 2013. The government is now trying to recover critical minerals such as copper, lithium, and rare earth elements, from scrap metals, in order to fulfill its $4 billion National Critical Minerals Mission launched in January, and to also secure supplies from domestic and overseas mines. The government also provides financial support for the establishment and operation of recycling plants. It aims to increase capacity by 270,000 tonnes and produce 40,000 tonnes per year of essential minerals, all while targeting almost 70,000 jobs. India recycled over 40% of its electronic waste last year, according to official data. This rate is close to that in Europe and the United States. Sustainability experts warn, however, that much of this early work is still done in informal workshops and homes, such as those in Seelampur. Workers peel, break, and sort waste without wearing protective gear, before it is moved to authorized plants. Swati Singh Sambyal is a circular economy specialist at GRID-Arendal in Norway. She said that the transition must take into account this reality. She said that informal workers remain India's first and most significant tier in the e-waste industry. She said that formalisation must protect workers' rights and provide pathways to better employment, or else the shift will further marginalise them. Loss of Income Seelampur has relied on an easy supply chain for years. Workers purchased discarded wires, electronics, and scrap from local scrap dealers. They then took the materials home to extract chips, copper, and aluminium. The metal was sold to nearby buyers who supplied factories. The chain has weakened as recycling companies expand, and local authorities limit home-based demolition by disabling electricity and fining smaller units. The industrial zones are now home to large traders and middlemen who supply dismantled material to recycling factories. Mohammad Saleem's hands are a testament to the danger of his work. He has darkened his hands and made cuts from peeling wires for eight years. He said that his income has dropped from 700 rupees to just 300 rupees per day. The work is moving quickly out of these alleyways. Workers said that many people, especially women, are unable to follow the work in distant factories. Mohammed Shadab (28 years old) feels that he has lost the ground he worked so hard to achieve. He quit his factory job of 10,000 rupees ($111.79 per month) three years ago to start a business at home that could bring in up to 25, 000 rupees. He said, "The jobs are moving to factories." "I do not have the information or money to open a licensed factory." I feel like I am being forced to become a worker. The formal recyclers say they still depend on informal workers but lack the infrastructure or capacity to absorb all. Rajesh Gupta, of Recyclekaro in Mumbai, said that companies work with informal workers by supplying basic training and authorised buyers, but they need more investment to expand. Yashraj Bhardwaj, a newly formed e-waste recycler, explained that the growth of this sector depends on a predictable supply. India's rules require producers to recycle e-waste at government-registered facilities at a minimum price of 22 rupees ($0.25) per kilogram, meant to support compliant facilities and reduce dependence on unsafe workshops. Bhardwaj stated that "a constant 22 rupees per kilo gives confidence to grow." The Indian government has been sued by global electronic brands such as Samsung, LG and Daikin. They claim that fixed-price systems distort the marketplace.
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The price of iron ore is capped by rising global supplies and China demand.
The price of iron ore futures edged up on Wednesday. Support from a modest improvement in China's demand was greater than the pressure from a rising global supply as well as a decline in steel production. The January contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading at 797 Yuan ($112.57) per metric ton, up 0.19%. As of 0718 GMT, the benchmark December iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was $0.71 per ton higher. The global iron ore production is projected to reach a new record in 2026 of 2,68 billion tons, thanks to the continued expansions in mines in Australia and Brazil. Also, the recently commissioned Simandou Project in West Africa will be a major contributor to this increase, according to a report by consultancy Mysteel. The World Steel Association has reported a lower global steel production for October. It was down 5.9% on an annual basis to 143.3 millions tons. Meanwhile, crude steel production from China, the top producer, fell 12.1%. China's steel production will fall below 1 billion tonnes this year, for the first six-year period. This is in line with government promises to reduce production and balance supply and demand in an industry that has been struggling with overcapacity. Mysteel reported that the prices of locally produced iron ore concentrats in China remained unchanged across most production areas last week despite a decline in demand from domestic steelmakers. Mysteel stated that the strong performance of iron-ore derivatives, and the resilience of the imported ore price supported the market. Galaxy Futures, a Chinese broker, says that the domestic end-use demand for steel has improved in the fourth quarter. Infrastructure demand is driving up apparent steel demand. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also lost ground. They fell by 1.14% each and 1.34% respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks were mixed. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a mixed performance in steel benchmarks. Hot-rolled coil and rebar fell 0.03% and 0.21% respectively, while stainless steel gained 0.65%. ($1 = 7.0801 Chinese yuan) (Reporting by Lucas Liew; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
Stocks are heading higher, and gilts and Sterling steel will be a bruising budget
On Wednesday, the world stock market rose for a forth consecutive day as investors bet on a rate cut in the United States. Meanwhile, European markets were anticipating a peace agreement with Ukraine and UK stocks were bracing themselves for a brutal budget.
The early gains of 0.2% to 0.4% in Europe echoed that of the 0.3% gain for MSCI’s world stock index on Monday. Gains from Asia and Wall Street extended this week’s easement of recent AI- and tech-related jitters.
The UK budget was the focus of attention. It is expected to start around 1230 GMT. This will be a high wire act for the under pressure government and Finance Minister Rachel Reeves.
Reeves, who promised that the tax increases would be one-time only and were worth $52.7 billion, is expected to add another 20-30 billion pounds to the list of increases in order to plug the fiscal dam.
Traders pushed the sterling up to $1.3170, but investors in UK government debt, FTSE 100, and FTSE 350 waited nervously to find out how much was raised and who paid for it.
Oliver Faizallah is the Head of Fixed Income Analysis at Charles Stanley.
Sources said the Bank of Japan was preparing the markets for an upcoming rate hike. This could happen as early as next month.
This would be a shift in the central bank's stance to a more hawkish one and follows a meeting between the new prime minister Sanae Takaichi, and BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda last week.
The Yomiuri reported that the high approval ratings of Takaichi are also prompting Japanese Opposition Parties to prepare for snap elections.
The kiwi jumped 1.2% as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand reduced interest rates by 25 basis points, to 2.25%. However, it removed its dovish guidelines, signaling an end to central bank's ease cycle.
The Australian dollar also jumped by 0.5% after an inflation report that was hotter than expected reinforced the bets made there, too, that the rate cuts were over for now.
The oil prices remain choppy. Brent oil prices had fallen to their lowest level in five weeks after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced on Tuesday that he was willing to move forward with a U.S. backed peace plan.
This could open the door to a relaxation in sanctions against Russian oil companies. Brent traded at $62.50 during London trading. U.S. president Donald Trump said that a deal is near on Tuesday, but investors are aware of the long road ahead.
Expectations regarding the rate of exchange
The market's positive sentiment grew after U.S. retailers sales fell less than expected, and consumer confidence dropped. This boosted expectations of another Fed rate cut in the next month.
Fed funds futures are now pricing an implied 80.7% chance of a 25 basis-point cut during the Fed's meeting on December 10, compared to equal odds a week earlier, according to CME Group's FedWatch.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hovered around 4.009%. This is little changed from the U.S. closing of 4.002%. It briefly fell below the 4% threshold this month for the first.
Before the UK budget, 10-year bond yields increased by almost 2 basis points from 4.48% to 4.51%. They had dropped more than 5 in the previous day.
The Nikkei led the overnight gains in Asia, gaining another 2%. However, the Japanese government bonds' short-term rates rose to their highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis as the selloff of these bonds resumed.
Alibaba, the AI leader in China and Hong Kong, has disappointed investors with its Q4 guidance. Alibaba's shares are down more than 1%.
Bitcoin, which has fallen 30% in the last few months, was just below $87,000. Spot gold rose 0.8% to $4,163.58 an ounce.
(source: Reuters)