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U.S. sanctions against the Iranian Zanjani network
The United States announced on Friday that they would be imposing additional sanctions against nine firms and four individuals who are associated with the Iranian financier, 'Babak Zanjani. The U.S. Treasury Department announced that the new designations targeted Zanjani’s Iran-based operations through his "Dot One", as well as several firms in Turkey and the United Arab Emirates who have supported his already designated digital assets exchanges. Treasury said Zanjani leveraged a diverse portfolio, including financial services, digital asset trading, gold and precious gemstone production, major infrastructure projects and other areas, to launder money and move funds for Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated in a press release that "the Iranian regime continues paying a steep economic price for their reckless behavior." The rial has plunged to yet another record low, and inflation is on the rise. Treasury will continue to cut off economic access for corrupt Iranian regime leaders, along with their financiers and facilitaters. Treasury's Office for Foreign Assets Control first designated Zanjani in January, along with his two largest digital asset projects Zedcex Exchange Limited and Zedxion Exchange Limited. Reporting by Andrea Shalal, editing by Michelle Nichols
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Polish President refers windfall tax decision to Constitutional Court
The Polish president has said that he will refer a bill which would impose a windfall tax?on the profits of oil and gas companies to the country's Constitutional Court, citing?concerns about its'retroactive' nature and 'potential impact' on consumers. The Polish Parliament has approved a bill that will tax windfall profits made by oil and gas firms who have enjoyed soaring margins in the face of supply shocks caused by the Middle East conflict. The bill assumes that in 2026, fuel sales exceeding the average of the previous year by 20% will be taxed 60%. This would generate 4 billion zlotys (about $1.05 billion) for the state budget. However, it still needs the final approval of President Karol Nwrocki. The President said that he had doubts regarding the bill because it would apply "retroactively" to revenues generated as far back as March. In a recorded message posted on X, he stated that "in a democracy governed by rule of law citizens and entrepreneurs need to know what regulations are in effect at the moment they make decisions." He said that he was also concerned about the tax being passed on to consumers as higher?prices. This would make life more difficult for those already struggling with'surging energy costs. "I can't accept a situation in which an attempt to patch up the state finances is presented to citizens as a way to protect their interests, when it will actually result in another wave of prices hikes," said he. For a bill to become law, it must be signed by the?Polish President. He can also veto or refer them to Constitutional Tribunal (the constitutional court).
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Quotes-Russians Nabiullina, Zabotkin and Zabotkin discuss the key rate, fuel shortage and sanctions against Russian banks
Elvira Nabiullina, the Russian Central Bank Governor and Alexei Zabotkin, her deputy, held a press conference Friday following the bank's decision to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points. Nabiullina & Zabotkin both spoke Russian. The following quotes were translated by into English. NABIULLINA ON RATE DECISION "We considered two options carefully: keeping the rate at the same level or reducing it by 0.25 percent. Several isolated proposals were made to increase the rate. However, we focused on these two options. NABIULLINA ON FUEL ?SUPPLY CRUNCH We analysed the current fuel situation. This relates first and foremost to what is known as supply-shocks. Such shocks are only considered if they cause significant secondary effects and feed through to sustained inflation. They also depend on their duration. We can see the government taking steps to stabilize the situation on fuel markets. We have carefully listened to the reports of representatives from our regional offices. Our regional offices report that the situation in many areas is stabilizing. "In our baseline scenario, capacity is assumed to be gradually restored at the end of this year." NABIULLINA ON WESTERN SANCTIONS AGAINST BANKS "Our banking industry has been operating under sanctions now for several years. A significant number of banks have already been subjected to sanctions. All banks, who haven't been sanctioned yet, are ready for this development. We believe that, just as in the past, when there were several waves of sanctions, all banks will be able to adapt. This is especially true because the banking sector has enough capital and resilience. NABIULLINA'S ANALYSIS OF THE RUSSIAN BUDGET DIFFICIT "This is the first time that we have calculated our own possible trajectory for the structural budget deficit. It is possible that the actual trajectory will be different. Discussions are taking place in the government. Announcing the date of an announcement is expected to happen? in September or October. We have, however, projected that the primary structural deficit will be 2% of GDP this year. This will increase to 1% next year and then 0.5% in 2028. These are our estimates, which will be refined when the government releases its updated forecasts. "Our baseline forecasts include this trajectory." NABIULLINA DOWN STOCK MARK MARKET "There is no reason to be concerned about the financial stability of this situation. The stock market is experiencing a period where it's very volatile. I think that an important part of the issue is related to the increased uncertainty about the future financial performance and dividend policy of listed companies. We do not believe that there is a need to react to the risks of financial stability. "The circumstances and dynamics have changed dramatically since those times when additional measures really were needed." *NABIULLINA ON POSSIBLE RATE HIKE "We can't completely exclude the possibility of a rate increase. We will continue to pursue the necessary policy to get back to low inflation. If circumstances change, we will raise the rate as high as necessary. I also hope that the actions we take in 2014 as well as 2022, 2023-2024 will be clear on this issue. This is a totally different scenario than the baseline we currently use. This scenario includes additional, continuing supply-side shocks that are not?longer?temporary but reduce our production capacity on a long-term?basis. If our capacity was being permanently reduced, it would be necessary to have a more moderated economy this year as well as next year. "But, I'd like to stress once more, this isn't part of our baseline scenarios." *NABIULLINA ON?ATTACKS on WILDBERRIES warehousing and possible support "No, we do not consider any support measures because we think that the insurance industry as a sector is resilient enough." *NABIULLINA ?ON RISKS OF STAGFLATION "We have revised down our GDP projections. We have taken temporary reductions in production capacity into consideration. We assume that the capacity will slowly recover. In terms of this year's lower growth rates, between 0-1%, and?inflation, which is 6-7%: I don't think this term should be used arbitrarily as it can often be used as a fear tactic. Stagflation is characterized by a slowdown in the economy, a high rate of unemployment, and a high inflation, sometimes even an accelerating one. It is not caused by a tightening of monetary policy but rather a loosening, especially when resources are limited. So, I don't think we should talk about it. It is our monetary policies, which are aimed at reducing the inflation rate, that allow us to avoid a situation like this. Reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin and Marina Bobrova. Editing by Andrew Osborn
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Mali's gold production is expected to remain below 60 tonnes by 2029 according to a ministry plan
According to a plan by the mines ministry, Mali's annual industrial gold production will remain below 60 tons through 2029. This is a continuation of the decline following the introduction of the revised mining code, and the disputes between the government and the miners. Mali has tightened the grip it has on its mining sector, under a mining code that was introduced in 2023 to boost state revenue. Officials said that a government audit had recovered 761 billion CFA Francs ($1.2billion) in alleged arrears owed by mining companies. According to the 2026-2029 Malian Mines Ministry's plan, industrial gold production will reach?43.2 tonnes in 2026. This figure will rise to 51.2 tons by 2027 before peaking at 57 tons by 2028. The data didn't explain the reason for the trend. The Mines Ministry did not respond immediately to a comment request. The Fekola mine of B2Gold, Barrick’s Loulo Gounkoto Complex, Resolute’s Syama operation, and Allied’s Sadiola mine are expected to account for the bulk of production projected through 2029. Mali's small-scale and artisanal production will remain at six tons per year over the period. MINING REFORMS RATHER INVESTORS Mali's reforms in mining sparked a long-running dispute with Canadian miner Barrick, which culminated last year in the temporary administration of Loulo-Gounkoto before a settlement could be reached. The fallout from the scandal weighed down on production and investor sentiment and offset gains made by new?mines or smaller producers. Industrial gold production dropped to 42.2 tonnes in 2025, from a revised total of 54.8 tons in '2024. This is well below the 66.5 tons produced at a record in 2023. The?2026-2029 mines ministry plan also predicts a decrease in industrial gold reserves. These are expected to drop to 748.6 tonnes in 2029, from 906.6 tons in 2016. (Reporting and editing by Maxwell Akalaare Adombila, Susan Fenton and Tiemoko Diallo)
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Quotes-Russian Nabiullina, Zabotkin and Zabotkin discuss the key rate, fuel shortage and sanctions against Russian banks
Elvira Nabiullina, the Governor of the Russian Central Bank and Alexei Zabotkin, her deputy, held a press conference on Friday following a 25 basis point cut in its key rate to 14.00%. Nabiullina, Zabotkin and others spoke Russian. The?quotes that follow were translated by. NABIULLINA ON RATE DECISION "We carefully considered two options: Keeping the rate at its current level and cutting it to 0.25%. We discussed these two options, despite a few isolated suggestions to increase the rate. NABIULLINA ON FUEL SUPPLY CRUNCH "We analysed the fuel situation's development. This is primarily about what's known as supply-shocks. Such shocks are only considered if they cause significant secondary effects and feed into sustained inflation. We can see that the government is taking steps to stabilize the situation on fuel markets. We have carefully listened to the reports of representatives from our regional offices. According to our regional offices in many areas, the situation has stabilized. "In 'our baseline scenario', we assume capacity will gradually be restored by the end the year." NABIULLINA ON WESTERN ?SANCTIONS AGAINST BANKS "Our banking industry has been operating with sanctions for several years now. A significant number of banks have already been subjected to sanctions. All banks, who haven't yet been sanctioned, are ready for this development. We expect that everyone will adjust to this, just as they did in the past when there were several waves of sanctions.
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The EU has included the crypto exchange HTX in its Russia sanctions
The European Union sanctioned the cryptocurrency exchange HTX on Thursday, as part of its latest effort to increase pressure on Russia's banking system. HTX is a?largest crypto platform in the world. It was formerly referred to as Huobi, and was founded in China. Hong Kong billionaire Justin Sun purchased a controlling interest in the exchange by 2022. It was listed in a list 18 companies that provide crypto services, which the EU claimed helped Russians avoid sanctions. This list was made public on Friday. HTX didn't immediately respond to an email request for a?comment. The EU's new sanctions against Russia for its war in Ukraine "targets" banks, cryptocurrency networks and oil traders as well as the shadow fleet. The latest sign that countries are cracking down against the use of cryptocurrency to?move money outside of the mainstream financial system is the sanctions. HTX first came under UK sanctions in May, as part of a package focusing primarily on "shadow financial systems", which London called the foundations for Russia's war-economy. Analysts said that this was the first time a large exchange had been sanctioned. The EU sanctioning of HTX is not a full designation, and it does not include a asset freeze. A spokesperson for HTX stated that "Regulatory compliance remains HTX's absolute top priority." We monitor regulatory frameworks and adhere to them strictly in all jurisdictions where we operate, including the UK. HTX was founded in China in 2013 and has referred Sun to as an "advisor". Sun was once one of the biggest?backers for World Liberty Financial, a?crypto venture founded by U.S. President Donald Trump and his children. However, that relationship has soured. (Reporting from Elizabeth Howcroft, Brussels; additional reporting from Julia Payne and Kirsty Ridley at London; editing by Louise Heavens).
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Investors monitor Mideast developments as gold moves up on oil price pullback
Gold prices climbed on Friday as oil prices fell, and investors watched developments in the Middle East to get a better idea of inflationary risks fueled by energy, as well the outlook for U.S. rates. Spot gold increased 0.4%, to $4.061.36 an ounce, by 1115 GMT after falling 0.6% earlier. U.S. gold futures for delivery in August gained 0.3%, to $4.063.60. The gold price has moved from a negative to a slightly positive territory, driven by the lower oil prices. This reduces pressure on Fed to adjust rates, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. He added, "Our view is that the Fed will remain on hold. This should support gold prices in the months to come." Brent crude climbed 7% Thursday and settled 'above $100' for the first time since May, after Yemeni Houthis claimed to have attacked two Saudi oil tanks in the Red Sea. Prices fell below this milestone on Friday. The increased oil prices caused by the Gulf supply disruptions are affecting gold prices. They raise expectations for higher interest rates in the future, which can reduce the appeal of gold that doesn't yield. Investors now await the U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting, which is expected to take place next week. It's widely expected that rates will remain unchanged. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in an 80% probability of a rate hike in September. The European Central Bank held interest rates at the same level as expected on Friday, but left the door open for another rise in September. India's gold discounts widened the most in seven weeks, as demand was subdued following a price rise earlier this week that deterred buyers. Meanwhile, China, a major consumer of gold, saw a resurgence in buying interest. (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru; Editing by Susan Fenton and Varun H K) (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru; Editing by Susan Fenton and Varun H K)
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ROI-War? What is war? Aluminium's Gulf disruption premium vanishes: Andy Home
You wouldn't guess it by the price of aluminium. Two damaged Gulf smelters, and the resulting?logistical constraints at other smelters have already created a 2 million metric ton gap in the global supply chains. After surging to a 4-year high of $3,787.50 per tonne in early June, London Metal Exchange's (LME) 3-month aluminium now trades around $3,170 a tonne, exactly where it traded before the United States launched its "Operation?Fury", a joint strike with Israel against Iran, on February 28. Where did the war premium end up? Is the market right in being so'relaxed' about?the unprecedented shortage of a metal that both Washington and Brussels consider to be a critical one? What is a SPEEDY Recovery? After an Iranian missile attack, the market was encouraged by the progress that Emirates Global Aluminium made in repairing and reactivating their Al Taweelah plant. As of July 2, the company has restarted 89 out of 1,262 smelter cells. Qatar Aluminium, which is still operating at 60% capacity, continues to be affected by the Iranian attacks. According to the International Aluminium Institute, Gulf production fell by 20% during the first half this year. Since the start of hostilities, smelter production has dropped by more than 2 million tonnes annually. Even if you assume that things will return to normal, it could be several months before the full recovery is complete. This is becoming increasingly unlikely, as the United States continues its bombing campaign against Iran and Tehran tightens the chokehold it has on the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthis, who are aligned with Iran's government, have also begun to enforce their own Red Sea blockade. CHINA RAISES EXPORT VOLUMES The unexpected calm in the market over the past few days is due to a growing belief that even if the Gulf metal loss continues, it can be "offset" by increased exports from China or Indonesia. China's aluminum smelters enjoy high profit margins due to the combination low alumina prices and high metals. According to consultancy AZ Global, capacity utilisation is close to 99%. World Bureau of Metal Statistics, which collects official data on customs, reports that exports of semi-manufactured aluminum products like bars, rods, and tubes grew by 10% year-on-year during the first five months of the 2026. The 595,000 tonnes of aluminium shipped in May was the highest number since November 2024. China's exports of primary and alloy products are not equivalent to the production lost in the Gulf. However, they can help restore the market balance by suppressing Western demands. China's exports are in direct competition with the West which has already implemented multiple trade protections measures. INDONESIA RISING Indonesia is another option. A Chinese investment boom has led to the rapid rise of China as a primary aluminium supplier. The Hua Chin Smelter, which produces 480,000 tons of steel per year, is a joint venture between Tsingshan Holding Group (THG) and Huafon Group. It ramped up production last year, and in May, it applied to register the "HCAI" trademark with the LME. Alamtri Resources Indonesia is another newcomer that has built a plant of similar size and began exporting its products in June. According to Greg Wittbecker of Wittsend Commodity Advisors, the project pipeline includes 11 new smelters, with a combined annual production of 13,000,000 tons. WBMS reports that Indonesian exports of primary metal jumped from 155,000 ton in 2024, to 511,000 ton in 2025. They also grew by 58% in the first five month of this year. It is easy to understand why the aluminium industry has relaxed its stance on the impact of the Gulf production. Stock ABSorbers The apparent resilience of the aluminum supply chain is also a cause for concern, as shown by Indonesia's trade flow. Last year, the main destination for exports was China with 40% of all shipments. South Korea, Vietnam and Japan followed closely behind with 16%, and 12% respectively. Exports to Europe were substantial, especially in the fourth quarter. Indonesian smelters sent 15,000 tons of iron ore to Spain, 14,800 to Croatia, 11000 to Bulgaria, 5,500 to Italy, and 5500 to the United Kingdom. A further 39,000 tons was sent to Turkey. It seems that this was a collective stock building exercise in anticipation of the implementation of Europe's Carbon Border adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which is scheduled to begin at the beginning of this year. The new generation of plants is powered by coal and therefore costs for CBAM are higher. The build-up of inventory has played a major secondary role in reducing the impact of Gulf disruption. The biggest question is, however, how much money has been withdrawn and when it will need to be replenished? While the war premium has disappeared from the LME's futures market it still remains in the CME physical premium contracts. Since the beginning of the U.S./Israeli war against Iran, the European duty-unpaid rate has increased by 65%. The Japanese duty-unpaid premium has doubled. LME traders are sanguine about the worsening situation in Gulf but their counterparts on the ground don't appear to be so certain. Andy Home is an author and columnist. The opinions expressed in this column are Andy Home's. Open Interest (ROI), a data-driven, thought-provoking commentary on the markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
Investors focus on Middle East developments as Fed rate decision approaches
Gold held steady as Brent crude fell from above $100 per barrel on Friday, and investors assessed the Middle East conflict's implications for inflation in advance of next week's U.S. rate decision.
The spot price of gold remained unchanged at $4 046.10 an ounce as of 09:17 am EDT (1317 GMT), despite a 2% drop in the previous session. The contract rose 0.7% for the week due to dip buying early in the week.
U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery?gained 0.3 percent to $4,063.60.
"Gold and Silver are carving out bases around $3,950 and $55 respectively, despite the relentlessly higher yields. Gold feels ready to?back up... While a stop loss move below cannot be ruled out, a sharp war escalate can't.
Brent crude oil prices dropped over 3% after a rise of over 7% in the previous session, when they settled above $100 for the first since May. This was after Iran-aligned Houthis claimed to have hit two Saudi oil tanks in the Red Sea.
Bullion is down about 23% in the last few months since the U.S. war against Iran began late February. This has been a result of expectations that inflation due to war could cause interest rates to rise.
Gold is often seen as an inflation hedge, but higher interest rates can have a negative impact on this non-yielding metal.
Investors are now awaiting the U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting next week. It is expected that rates will remain unchanged.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in an 80% probability of a U.S. interest rate hike in September.
The recent strength in bullion seems to be driven by dip-buying, and short-covering. The sharp decline from the record highs of earlier this year has been followed by a recovery.
Silver spot rose by 0.4%, to $57.92 an ounce. Platinum fell 1.3%, to $1.582.40. Palladium dropped 1%, to $1.244.24.
(source: Reuters)