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Morning bid Europe-Shares fall as markets wait for likely payrolls data
Stella Qiu gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. After a?bumper quarter, global shares have retreated. The quarter-end rebalancing is partly responsible, but there are also concerns about the AI party's future. The news that Meta plans to sell surplus AI 'compute makes one wonder if they still need to purchase all those hot chips. Asia got a bad start. South Korea initially suffered a 7% drop on the back of heavy selling of chipmakers such as SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and others. However, this has now slowed down. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.2% and the KOSPI lost 3%. European stock exchanges are preparing for a flat opening, with pan-regional stock futures up 0.1%. Futures on the Nasdaq rose by 0.3%, while those for S&P 500 were up 0.2%. The focus hereafter will be the U.S. nonfarm payrolls, which arrive a day earlier due to the Independence Day Holiday on July 4. The median forecast by economists is for a rise in?jobs of 110,000, with a range from 25,000-200,000. It is likely that the football World Cup created thousands of temporary positions, increasing the chances of a positive surprise. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%. Treasury yields are 'climbing in anticipation of some strong numbers. Two-year yields are up 9 basis points this week, regardless of what Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh says about inflation risks coming down. A strong jobs report will add to the market pricing of policy tightening by the Fed in this year. The move in September is about 80% priced in. However, a weaker result would reduce pressure on any interest rate increases this year. Oil prices, which fell to a new four-month low last Thursday, are providing comfort to global central banks. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), said that inflation and growth risks are more evenly distributed now as markets reduce the likelihood of an ECB interest rate hike. Later in the day we will also be able to see the euro zone unemployment rate (for?May), where a forecast of a constant 6.3% is expected. Inflation in June was lower than expected at 2.8%. The yen was hovering near a '40-year-low at 162.52 per dollar. U.S. employment data will likely be pivotal in determining the yen's near-term fate. Japan has increased its intervention rhetoric, but it has yet to be seen on the market. Sources said that officials are abandoning the habit of telegraphing interventions and instead planning a calculated campaign in order to increase the cost of betting on the yen. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday. The US payroll report for June Euro zone unemployment rate in May Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, speaks in Spain
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Manufacturing strength is a key factor in the rise of aluminium
Aluminum prices edged higher on Thursday as signs of strength in the manufacturing industry supported their rise. Benchmark?aluminium for three months on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.59% to $3,094 per metric ton by 0300 GMT. The most-traded aluminum contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased 0.09%, to 22,505 Yuan ($3,316.83). The manufacturing strength was evident in the prices of light metals used for transport, packaging, and construction. China, Europe, and the U.S. released data on Wednesday that showed manufacturing strength, despite higher input prices. The price of aluminium has dropped in the past two weeks due to the peace process between the U.S. and Iran, which reduced the premium for metals that were a result of war. Copper was also?subdued' in other places. A June deadline for a recommendation on potential ?U.S. The deadline for a recommendation on potential?U.S. tariffs was June, but the White House did not announce anything. Copper prices have been driven by concerns about tariffs in recent months. The LME copper price was stable with a rise of only 0.02%. On the SHFE, it fell by?0.09%. Kevin Warsh, the U.S. Federal Reserve chair, made a balanced comment on inflation that boosted?base metals markets. They feared that stubborn inflation would lead to?higher interest rates for longer. Increased interest rates suppress economic activity, which in turn impacts industrial minerals that are dependent on growth. The demand for copper has been boosted by the growth of AI infrastructure, grid investment and electric cars. Nickel?dipped by 0.15%, tin fell by 0.49% and lead was up only 0.19%. On the SHFE, lead fell 0.63%, tin rose 0.34%, and nickel dropped 0.47%.
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After the US-Iran talks in Doha concluded, oil prices fell for a third day.
Oil prices fell about 1% on Thursday, for the third day in a row, after Qatar announced that Iran and the U.S. made progress during 'indirect talks' focused on the Strait of Hormuz. This area handled a fifth of global oil supplies before the war. In a blog post, a Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that the discussions had produced "positive progress" in relation to the memorandum which ended the war in the month of June. However, there was no indication that both sides had made any progress towards a lasting peaceful. Brent futures fell by 77 cents, or 1.1%, to $70.80 per barrel at?0256 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude dropped by 84 cents, or 1.2%, to $67.74 per barrel. The benchmarks for both indices fell by more than 1% during the last session and reached their lowest level in four months. Haitong Futures stated in a report that as the strait remains open and crude oil continues to flow out, expectations of an oversupply are increasing and the competition for market share is driving prices lower. Sources said that OPEC+ countries are likely to agree on a new increase in output goals for August at their Sunday meeting. UBS cut its Brent predictions on Thursday, citing the U.S. Iran memorandum of Understanding and the increase in oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. It has cut its average Brent forecast by $25 for the quarter ending September and by $10 for the quarter ending December. The bank expects that the benchmark will average $80 per barrel in the second half and $75 by 2027. UBS stated that "despite this, we do not believe it's?premature? to assume full normalisation & price risks are skewed to the upside, given the fact that inbound tankers have lagged behind outbound tankers." Qatar's Foreign Ministry has also confirmed that the next meeting between Iran and U.S. diplomats will take place on July 9 after the funeral procession for Iran's late supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
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Asian shares drop as chipmakers drag and US jobs data looms
Asian shares fell on Thursday, as investors shifted out of the chipmaker sector after a stellar third quarter. Currency and bond markets were bracing for U.S. employment data that could give hints about interest rate hikes. Oil prices have fallen to their lowest level in four months, with Brent crude down 0.8% at $71 per barrel. This is after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that talks between the U.S. and Iran went well in Qatar. The MSCI broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan dropped 0.8% on Thursday. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.1% and added to the losses of the first day of this quarter. South Korea's KOSPI fell 2.7%, continuing a 2% decline from Wednesday. This was after a 68% increase in the second quarter, mainly due to an exploding demand for AI-related memory chips. SK Hynix fell 7.7%, and Samsung dropped 6.2%. This was in response to a report that Meta Platforms has built a cloud computing business for the purpose of?selling excess AI computing capability,' which sent Facebook's stock up 8.8% over night. Hong Kong's Hang Seng broke the Asian trend with a 1.8% gain. In the first half 2026, foreign investors sold Asian stocks at the highest rate in at least 16 year as the AI-driven rally forced the to cut their biggest winners from South Korea and Taiwan in order to hunt for cheaper laggards. Investors are focused on the non-farm payrolls report due this month on Thursday due to a holiday on Friday in honor of Independence Day. This year, Independence Day falls on a Sunday. The economists polled expect an increase of 110,000 jobs in June. However, forecasts vary widely, ranging from gains of up to 200,000. This suggests that there is a high chance of a surprise. Forecasts predict that the unemployment rate will remain at 4.3%. There is no one rigid strategy that equity traders can follow. Equity players are looking for a Goldilocks result: stable unemployment and decent job creation. Equity bulls will welcome anything that prevents a significant increase in the implied probability of rate hikes near term. Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve chair, said that inflation risks have eased in recent months, but this relief was only temporary for Treasuries. Warsh said that he will "stick firmly" to his 2% inflation goal and "disappoint anyone who expects a loose monetary policy." The markets are currently pricing in about 80% of the?odds that a rate increase will occur in September. Treasury yields are climbing as traders prepare for a strong jobs report, which could lead to bets on a rate hike in the near future. The yields on U.S. 2-year bonds rose by 1 basis point (bp), or 9 bps, to 4.1785% on Thursday. The 10-year yields remained at 4.4811%, after climbing 10 bps in the past week. The U.S. Dollar was supported by higher Treasury yields. The euro dropped 0.4% against the dollar overnight after European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde stated that inflation and growth risk were now more broadly balanced. The euro was stable?in Asian hour on Thursday, at $1.1379. The yen was unchanged at?162.59 a dollar after hitting a new 40-year-low of 162.84 Wednesday. Tokyo has issued its usual intervention warnings in response to the slide. The impact of the interventions in April/May was short-lived despite the Japanese authorities spending 12 trillion yen. After a tough quarter, gold rose 0.5% to $4.050 per ounce. Stella Qiu, Stella Qiu and Kevin Buckland contributed to this report.
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Oil drops after US-Iran talks end in Doha
Early trade on Thursday saw oil prices drop after Qatar announced that Iran and the U.S. made "positive progress" during indirect talks concluded on Wednesday. The talks focused on the 'Strait of Hormuz which handled one-fifth of the global supply of oil before the war. Brent futures fell 73 cents or 1.02% to $70.84 a bar by 0102 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude dropped 83 cents or 1.21% to $67.75 a bar. Both benchmarks dropped more than 1% in the previous session to their lowest level in four months. Sources claim that the U.S., Iran and their negotiators spent two days at Doha to discuss maritime traffic on the 'Strait of Hormuz' and the unfreezing of Iran funds. Although traffic is partially back on track, both countries exchanged strike last weekend after an Iranian attack against a cargo vessel. Two senior Iranian sources have said that Iran is determined for international recognition to be given to its control of the Strait, even if this means using force. Tehran has repeatedly stated that it will impose tolls for shipping in mid-August after the toll-free period stipulated by the original agreement expires. The tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has begun to recover. U.S. Vice-President JD Vance said that oil flow through the waterway was back to prewar levels. He did not provide any figures. Haitong Futures stated in a report that as the strait remains open and crude oil continues to flow out, competition for share of market keeps driving oil prices lower, and there is growing expectation of an oversupply. Sources said 'on Wednesday that OPEC+ countries are likely to agree on a new increase in output from August at their Sunday meeting. Sources said that the target for August will be the same as it was for June and for July: 188,000 barrels/day. The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that crude oil inventories in the U.S. fell by 3.8 million barrels last week to reach 408.4 millions barrels, their lowest level since September 2018. The result was less than what analysts had expected in a poll that predicted a drop of about 4.5 million barrels. (Reporting and editing by Sonali Paul in Beijing, Sam Li, Lewis Jackson)
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Relocating six million Singapore bees, and counting - one nest at atime
Clarence Chua, 42, rescues bees with a bandana, and sometimes his own hands. He scoops them out of nests into wooden boxes to re-locate, or even relocate, the bees. Chua stated, "They are completely fine with being in close proximity to them if they feel respected and if their safety is not threatened." Residents of tropical Singapore who find bee nests in their homes usually call pest control. This service can eliminate the nests within minutes and for a cost between S$80 and S$150 (62 to $116). Chua, however, has been able to convince a growing number of people to let him rescue bees between S$100 to S$500. He has relocated 100 nests per year on average in the last six-year period, saving approximately 6 million bees. The humane relocation involves moving the entire nest while keeping the queen, baby bees, and worker bees in the colony. The bees are then transferred to three apiaries that he maintains, including one in his backyard. Chua has saved bees in all kinds of exotic places. From a "spirit home" inside a condominium, to the engine of a plane, which couldn't take off until a swarm had been relocated. He noted that as awareness about bee rescues improved, local town councils which manage public housing estates in which almost 80% live had also "begun" engaging his services. The job is not without danger. He once tried to rescue what he thought were docile, calm bees from a condo ledge, but they attacked him. He was stung 100 times in the 30 seconds that it took him to remove his harness and get away. He said that it taught him to never underestimate nature. He still approaches nests first without a beesuit to gauge the mood of the swarm before donning a suit if they seem agitated. Chua promotes bee rescues via social media. Some of the videos of his exploits are taken in a first person?view using Meta glasses. "Without bees there will be much less fruit or more expensive fruit because there is a shortage of fruit around the world." He said that we are dependent on a staggering amount of crops for our survival.
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Stocks flat as traders digest Fed comments, oil falls
The gauge of world stock markets fell to begin the first quarter on Wednesday, as the U.S. Central Bank?head stated that inflation expectations had fallen, but that policy would not be relaxed. Meanwhile oil prices dropped as optimism about U.S. Iran talks eased concerns over supply. Even if the yen recovered later in the day, traders are still watching for any possible Japanese intervention on the currency markets. Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve Chair, said that inflation expectations and risks have decreased in recent weeks. He said that he would stick to the U.S. Central Bank's 2% target for inflation and "disappoint anyone" who expected a looser monetary policy. His comments weighed heavily on the dollar. This is because rising expectations for Fed rate hikes in this year have boosted the dollar. Inflation is well above the central banks's 2% target. Many analysts still believe that inflation will improve in the coming months. "We see no signs that the imbalance between inflation and activity is increasing rapidly," said Steve Englander, Standard Chartered Bank New York's head of global G10 research and North America Macro Strategy. Englander said that you can wait to see how the longer-term trends in technology play out. What we see is that the unit labor costs have been very low, and that's ultimately what the Fed controls. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies) rose by 0.17%, to 101.41. Meanwhile, the euro fell by 0.39%, to $1.1376. The dollar and yen were last day flat. The Fed is not expected to make any changes at its meeting in late August, but a rate hike in September has been priced in. The trades are also looking forward to Thursday's economic reports, which will show that U.S. employers created 110,000 new jobs in June and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. According to the ADP National Employment Report released on Wednesday, private employment increased by 98,000 positions in June. This was below the 118,000 predicted by economists. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 13.96 points or 0.03% to 52,305.24. The S&P 500 declined 16.13 points or 0.22% to 7,483.23 while the Nasdaq Composite lost 173.69 points or 0.66% to 26,040.0. MSCI's global index of stocks fell 2.51 points or 0.22% to 1,117.95. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.38% while Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 fell by 11.45 points or 0.45%. Emerging Market stocks dropped 0.96 points, or 0.06% to 1,721.93. Japan's ?Nikkei gained 0.6% after surging 37% last quarter. South Korea's index dropped about 2% after a rally of 68% last quarter, driven by chip demand fueled by AI. Oil prices dropped on the energy markets as optimism about U.S. - Iran talks eased supply concerns. Phil Flynn is a senior analyst at Price Futures Group. He said that there's a growing optimism as more oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The market is saying that, once we get through this, we will be able to produce more oil than ever before. Brent crude dropped 2.44% to $71.17 a barrel, down from $68.09 per barrel. Despite sharp price declines last quarter, both remain ?up almost 20% year-to-date. A poll shows that analysts have cut their oil price forecasts 2026 for the first since the Iran War began. The reopening of Strait of Hormuz has eased fears over supply disruptions.
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US Nuclear Power Regulator proposes to change rule protecting people against radiation
The U.S. Nuclear Power Regulator on Wednesday proposed "changes" to a rule that protects people from radiation. This is the latest proposal by the Trump administration to change or soften the rules in order to speed up development and reduce costs for new nuclear reactors. In 2025, President Donald Trump issued executive orders to accelerate the permitting of nuclear reactors and overhaul the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. He also directed the Energy and Defense departments work together in order to build nuclear power plants on federal lands. Trump wants to quadruple the U.S. nuclear capacity by 2050 in order to meet rising power demand due to data centres, electric vehicles, and crypto-currencies. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's proposal removes a radiation dose limit standard, ALARA (As Low as?Reasonably Achievable), with objective limits. Ho Nieh said to reporters that the NRC's rulemaking process would increase the clarity of our regulations. "It does not lower the bar for our safety standards." Industry has long claimed that ALARA was tied to the Linear No-Threshold model, which holds that "any dose of radiation" (no matter how small) can cause cancer. They also claim that ALARA compliance is expensive, time-consuming and filled with uncertainties. The proposed changes include adopting a graded radiation dose management approach based on operational and risk circumstances. The new regulation also gives nuclear power plant operators more flexibility in using "modern methods of evaluating radiation doses for workers and the general public." Nieh stated that he did not expect current nuclear reactors to undergo major changes if the new rule is finalized. He said that it could speed up the development of new nuclear reactors. Nieh, a reporter, said that "now they have a clear picture of how the requirements for radiation protection will look. This will help them design and build their reactor in terms of shielding and materials." Edwin Lyman is a physicist at the Union of Concerned Scientists and an advocate for nuclear safety. He said that the NRC reaffirmed scientific consensus?that there's no "safe" level of radiation and the cancer risk is proportional with the dose. The new rule would allow workers at nuclear facilities and the public to be exposed higher levels of radiation that can cause cancer, just to save money for the nuclear industry. Lyman stated that "this will only increase the burden of disease at a time where cancer rates among young people are already on the rise." The NRC made a proposal last month to change a rule that would have "dramatically weakened measures" protecting nuclear power plants from terrorist attacks. A new rule, proposed Wednesday, would streamline the construction of reactors and make major changes to the licensing process. The NRC will accept public comments for 45 days prior to the finalization of the radiation rule.
Gold prices rise on weak oil and soft US jobs data
Gold prices rose on Thursday due to softer than expected jobs data, and lower oil prices. The market is now looking forward to the U.S. payrolls release today for new clues about the Federal Reserve.
As of 0251 GMT on Tuesday, spot gold was up 0.7% at $4,057.92 an ounce after reaching its highest level since the previous session. U.S. gold for August delivery fell 0.3% to $4,070.10.
Bullion ?hovered close to a more than seven-month low on Wednesday before closing higher at $4,029.89, after private payrolls data came ?in softer-than-expected.
Nicholas Frappell is the global head of institutional market at ABC Refinery. He said, "The market is cautious about shorting down here, because you see a few probes on the 'downside' that are being quickly rejected."
Frappell said that "ADP data was a little bit lower than forecast. This probably explains the gold's rally, as some people think the data will be reflected in the non-farm payrolls."
ADP's national employment report shows that private employment increased by 98,000 jobs in June, after a 122,000-job increase unrevised in May. The ADP national employment report showed that economists polled had predicted private employment to increase by 118,000.
Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve chair, said that inflation risks and expectations have decreased in recent weeks. He also reiterated the Fed's commitment to bring inflation to its 2% target.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a roughly 64% chance that a rate hike will occur in September.
Investors will be watching for the non-farm payroll data due later today to get more clues about the Fed's policy.
The oil prices dropped after Iran and the United States ended a round of indirect negotiations on Wednesday. They focused on 'the Strait of Hormuz but made few progresses toward a lasting agreement.
A stronger labor market and increased oil prices can fuel fears of inflation and interest rates that are higher for longer. Gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation. However, in an environment of high interest rates it becomes less attractive as a non yielding asset.
Silver spot rose by 1.6%, to $60.06 an ounce. Platinum gained 2%, to $1.607.67. Palladium increased 1.4%, to $1.227.13. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich in Bengaluru, Ronojoy Mazumdar, and Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru)
(source: Reuters)