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Group says global refined copper market will swing into surplus in 2026

Due to slower growth in demand and increased secondary production the 'global refined market' is expected to shift to a surplus 96,000 metric tonnes?in 2026. This will reverse a previously forecast deficit?of?150,000?tons.

The organization predicted a surplus in 2027 of 377,000 metric tonnes, but warned that geopolitical factors, such as the 'war in the Middle East' and changes in trade flow could impact market balances.

The global refined copper consumption is expected to increase by only 1.6% by 2026 (down from an earlier estimate of 2.0%) and by just 2% by 2027.

ICSG stated that the Chinese demand is expected to grow by 1.9% in 2026. Other regions are also expecting growth of 1.3%. The European Union, Japan and other regions will remain subdued while Asia continues to be a driving force for global growth.

The global refined copper production will increase by 0.4% by 2026 due to a limited concentration?availability. This is offset by an increased secondary output. In 2027, the production of concentrates is expected to improve and new capacity added.

The copper mine production is expected to 'grow by 1.6% % in 2026. This has been revised down from a previous estimate of 2.3%. This is due to slower growth rates in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC),?Chile and Indonesia as well as constraints in Grasberg and Kamoa after problems in 2025.

The mine output is expected to increase by 2.3% by 2027. This will be supported?by a new capacity ramp up,?improved production?in Chile and Zambia and?higher operating rates?in Indonesia and the DRC. Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru and Anushree mukherjee, editing by Paul Simao.

(source: Reuters)