Latest News

What next as China approaches peak aluminum production? Andy Home

What next as China approaches peak aluminum production? Andy Home

China's aluminum production is approaching its capacity limit.

From just four millions metric tons of production in 2004, China's primary metal smelting industry is expected to reach 43 million tons by 2024 or 60% global output.

The West has increasingly resisted the growing dominance that China is gaining in the global aluminum supply chain, first through trade complaints and antidumping duties, and then more recently with U.S. Tariffs.

China's semi-fabricated aluminum exports, which increased by 19% last year to a record of 6.2 million tonnes, were not affected.

Things are about to get better.

Beijing's "Action Plan" on aluminium for 2025-2027 confirms that the cap will remain in place, and outlines a plan for what comes next.

TOUCHING the ceiling

According to the International Aluminium Institute, China's primary aluminum production increased by 2.6% on an annual basis in the first quarter 2025.

The average annualised production was 44 million tonnes between January and March, only a million tones short of the cap of 45 million tons set in 2017.

According to consultancy AZ Global, it is technically possible that the country's production could exceed the cap.

The capacity of a smelter is measured by the amperage designed for the electrolysis process. However, "one of first tasks of any plant manager would be to increase output above the rate," the article states. The smelter can produce more than its capacity by increasing the amperage.

AZ China estimates China's capacity utilisation at 98.2%. This leaves little room for collective amperage to increase.

China's average annual growth rate of 4.0% over the past five years is beginning to slow.

Going Green

Chinese operators continue to build new smelters. However, the new capacity will have to be offset by closing older capacity.

Beijing's policies in this sector focus on eliminating older, less-efficient capacity and making sure that newer smelters use renewable energy sources.

Aluminium production is moving from coal-rich regions to new energy hubs such as Yunnan, with its hydropower and Inner Mongolia which has a massive wind and solar power potential.

The goal is to produce more metals with low carbon content. According to the plan, renewable energy will account for 30 percent of national smelter electricity demand by 2027.

Beijing wants to boost production by recycling scrap to reach a target of 15 million tons annually in 2027.

Exports are reduced

Already, another offset has kicked in.

In December, the government eliminated tax rebates of 13% for exports of aluminum products. This was done to keep more metal on the domestic market.

Exports have slowed down sharply since then, with volumes outbound falling by 11% on an annual basis in January and Febraury.

Analysts at Macquarie Bank predict that exports will fall by 8% between 2025 and 2030. A more dramatic collapse is unlikely, as the world outside China relies heavily on its products for around 15% of the total demand.

Most Western buyers are likely to accept at least a part of the cost increase.

It is possible that Chinese aluminum exports have reached their peak.

REPRIEVE FOR WESTERN GENERALISERS?

Combining a slowdown in Chinese production growth with reduced exports opens up a window for the rest the world's primary aluminum producers.

Nearly a million tonnes of smelting capacity in the United States is idle. The 25% tariffs on aluminum imports imposed by President Donald Trump are meant to encourage restarts.

After the surge in power prices that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, 2022, around half of Europe's primary smelting capacities are out of operation.

Although the structural changes implemented by the largest producer in the world may provide a reprieve for such plants, restarting idled capacities is also a matter of aluminium and electricity prices.

After years of low investment, there is renewed interest in greenfield smelters being built in the West.

The government has provided $500 million to U.S. aluminum producer Century Aluminum for the launch of the first new smelter built in the United States since 1945.

Rio Tinto is examining low-carbon smelter project in India and Finland.

But the Chinese dominance will remain

Due to the lack domestic expansion potential, Chinese producers also go overseas.

Beijing's aluminum action plan, for example, calls for closer cooperation with nations rich in resources, such as Guinea. Chinalco, a Chinese company, is involved in a project that converts Guinea's bauxite into alumina.

Shandong Nanshan Aluminium, which produces alumina in Indonesia, plans to expand their refining capability and add a smelter that can produce 260,000 tons per year.

China has stopped building its own capacity, but it appears that they have no plans to loosen their grip on a material classified by the United States as well as the European Union as a vital raw material.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

(source: Reuters)