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METI predicts that the crude steel production in Japan will fall by 4.9% year-on-year between April and June.

The industry ministry announced on Thursday that Japan's crude output of steel, without considering the impact of U.S. Tariffs, will fall to its lowest point in five years between April and June due to weak construction and manufacturing demand.

The 4.9% drop in the forecast to 20.2 million metric tonnes represents a 6. consecutive quarterly decrease and a 2.1% decline from the previous quarter.

The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 eroded the demand for steel, and the third largest producer of steel worldwide saw its quarterly output drop to 20.2 million tonnes.

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said that a survey of the industry showed that steel product demand, which includes exports, will fall by 4.0%, to 18.04 millions tons.

Exports are expected to drop by 6.5%.

Manabu Naboshima of METI’s Metal Industries Division told a press conference that the construction industry is likely to see a decline in demand due to delays caused by rising costs for materials and labour shortages.

He added that "in manufacturing, auto demand is weak, and industrial machinery for construction in particular, is slow."

Exports were also affected by the declining market share of Japanese automobile manufacturers in China, as well as economic slowdowns across Southeast Asia and Europe.

He said that the cloudy forecast did not reflect the full impact of the new U.S. Tariffs. This could mean a further fall in prices.

Tadashi Imai, chairman of the Japan Iron and Steel Federation, warned last month that Japan's annual crude output could drop below 80 million tonnes as U.S. steel and auto tariffs could cause a reduction in annual steel production by several millions tons.

Japan will produce 84 million tonnes in 2024.

Nabeshima stated that the government would consider taking action against Chinese steel imports under World Trade Organization regulations if unfair practices were found. The U.S. will continue to be pressed for an exemption from tariffs on steel and aluminum, he added. (Reporting and editing by Yuka Kaneko and Kaori Obayashi)

(source: Reuters)