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US equity markets gain as dollar weakens and gold increases amid tariff news
U.S. stocks were higher Wednesday, compared to Europe's losses. Gold was in high demand as investors awaited the details of U.S. president Donald Trump's plans for tariffs and worried about escalating global trade war. Investors focused on Wednesday on the reciprocal levies that the White House will announce following the close of the U.S. Stock Market, on what Trump calls "Liberation Day." Trump is expected add new tariffs to the already existing levies on autos, aluminium and steel, as well as increased duties on all Chinese goods. This has rattled the markets, with fears growing that a full-blown global trade war could cause a sharp economic slowdown. The head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, said that on Wednesday, the tariffs would be detrimental to the entire world. This will depend on the extent, duration and success of the negotiations. The survey on Wednesday of the private sector in the United States showed that the number of employees was up by 155,000, compared to the forecast of an increase of only 115,000. Wall Street indexes gained momentum as the session continued, even though stock futures didn't rally immediately following the release. Anthony Saglimbene is the chief market strategist for Ameriprise. He attributed the gains to "a combination oversold technical conditions and some good private payrolls this morning", with the hope of more clarity regarding the tariff environment. He said that the news would not likely bring any real relief. We're likely to experience volatility in the near future. He said that stocks are likely to fluctuate between higher and lower. I don't think we'll get the clarity that the market hopes for tonight with the tariff announcement. The tariff situation will only get more complicated with what they announced today. He said that the tariffs would be targeted at more countries and potentially more products. At 2:50 pm EDT on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 129.69, or 0.31 percent, to 42122.32. The S&P 500 rose by 19.75, or 0.36 percent, to 5,653.30. And the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 89.76, or 0.53% to 17,541.36. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 2.08 points or 0.25 percent to 834.23. The pan-European STOXX 600 closed earlier down 0.5%. The U.S. Dollar fell against other currencies such as the Euro and Sterling, and the Japanese yen, a safe-haven currency, fell, as traders waited for news that might upset global trade or shake financial markets. The euro rose 0.58% to $1.0856, while sterling gained 0.46% at $1.2979. The dollar gained 0.27% against the Japanese yen to reach 150.01. Investors shifted their attention to the announcement of tariffs, while Treasuries yields reversed after data on manufacturing and employment. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased 5.3 basis point to 4.209%, from 4.156% Tuesday. Meanwhile, the 30-year bond rate rose 4.6 basis to 4.5611%. The yield on the 2-year bond, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve rose by 5.5 basis points, to 3.918% from 3.863%. Robert Tipp, Chief Investment Strategist and Head of Global Bonds at PGIM Fixed income in Newark, New Jersey, said: "They may be a bit overbought right now." Gold, which is seen as a safe-haven during times of political and financial stress, has climbed to its intraday record high. Gold prices have risen by 19% this year, after a 27% increase in 2024. Gold spot rose by 0.36% on Wednesday to $3,121.61 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.55% to an ounce of $3,136.00. Oil prices on energy markets rose as investors awaited the tariff announcement, which could increase the uncertainty regarding the demand outlook. U.S. crude oil futures rose 0.72%, or 51 cents per barrel. Brent crude settled at $74.95 a barrel, up by 0.62% (46 cents) on the day. (Reporting from Sinead carew in New York, and Amanda Cooper, in London. Additional reporting from Chuck Mikolajczak, in New York, and Ankur Banerjee, in Singapore. Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Tomaszjanowski, Alex Richardson, and Matthew Lewis.
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Trump confirms that auto tariffs will begin on Thursday, May 3, and auto parts on Friday, May 4.
The administration of U.S. president Donald Trump confirmed on Wednesday that the 25% tariffs on global cars and trucks will go into effect on Thursday as planned and that duties on imports of automotive parts will begin on May 3. In a Federal Register announcement that added details to Trump's proclamation on auto tariffs issued last week the White House instructed the Commerce Department within 90 days to set up a process for adding more parts, including those requested by domestic producers. According to the Federal Register, the 25% auto tariffs will take effect on Thursday at 12:01 am EDT. The 25% tariffs for auto parts are set to take place on May 3 at 12:01 am EDT. The list of parts currently contains dozens tariff codes, including engines, transmissions powertrains, and electrical components. However, domestic producers can request to be added to the list. The notice stated that importers could pay 25% duty only on the non-U.S. portion of their order for vehicles which qualify under the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement's rules of Origin. Reporting by Doina chiacu in Washington and David Lawder Editing by Matthew Lewis
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Trump announces auto tariffs ahead of the 'Liberation Day Trade Announcement'
As President Barack Obama announced on Wednesday, the U.S. Government will impose a 25% duty on imports of automobiles and auto parts on April 3, as well as a similar tariff on auto components a month after. Donald Trump Prepare to Announce Further trade barriers This could lead to a global trade war, and even cause the economy to collapse. Trump's "Liberation Day announcement" is expected to undo existing trade agreements that date back to 1947, and will lead to countermeasures by close U.S. ally countries. Trump has been keeping the world guessing about the details of the White House Rose Garden ceremony, scheduled to take place at 4 p.m. Eastern Time (2000 GMT). Persons familiar with the deliberations of the administration said that the tariffs would be substantial and affect a large number of countries including close allies. One source claimed that Trump could remove the exemption of $800 for "de minimis" shipments to China. The new tariffs will be implemented immediately after Trump's announcement, even though the administration hasn't yet published an official notification as required. The administration did, however, publish an official notification that a separate tariff set on auto imports What Trump announced last Thursday will come into effect. "IT'S LIBERATION Day in America!" Trump posted a message on his social media platform. Trump, who called tariffs the "most beautiful words in the dictionary," said that his plans for reciprocity would equalize U.S. tariffs with those charged by other countries at higher rates and counter their non-tariff obstacles which he claims disadvantage U.S. Exports. Peter Navarro, Trump's adviser on trade, said that the auto tariffs will return strategic manufacturing capabilities to the United States. "This isn't protectionism. He wrote, "It's restoration", in USA Today. Doug Ford, Premier of Ontario in Canada, said that he wasn't sure if Trump officials understood U.S. Auto Industry supply chain system which is closely linked to other countries. He said, "This is the ridiculous thing I've ever seen" on CNBC. The warnings of outside economists that tariffs may slow down the global economy and raise the risk for recession have led to the increase of living costs by thousands of dollars for the average American family. Businesses complain that Trump's threats have made it hard to plan their operations. Steve Sosnick is the chief strategist of Interactive Brokers. He said, "I have never seen a situation with stakes this high but the outcome so unpredictable." The devil will be in the detail and nobody knows what the details are. Business leaders across sectors, including automobiles, ocean freight shipping, luxury products, and more, waited to find out what was going to happen. Peter Sand, the chief analyst of freight pricing platform Xeneta, said: "You can't make important decisions about your supply chain if the rules keep changing." France was expecting a "pretty strong" hit, which could result in tariffs between 20-25%. STACKING THE TARIFFS In less than 10 weeks after taking office, Trump imposed new duties of 20% on all imports coming from China, and restored the 25% duty on steel and aluminium, which now extends to downstream products worth nearly $150 billion. The administration announced on Wednesday that this would include all beer imports and empty aluminum cans. On Wednesday, the one-month reprieve from 25% tariffs on most Canadian and Mexican products is set to expire. Officials in the Trump administration have stated that Trump's tariffs are stacked on top of previous rates. For example, a Mexican car that was previously subject to a 2.5% tariff to enter the U.S., would now be subject to the fentanyl and auto sectoral tariffs for a total tariff rate of 52.5% -- plus any reciprocal duty Trump may impose against Mexican goods. The uncertainty surrounding duties is impacting consumer, investor and business confidence. On Wednesday, global stocks fell while gold, a safe haven asset, held near record levels. Since February, U.S. stock prices have lost nearly $5 trillion in value. Dollar and other currencies remained in tight ranges as traders awaited the details of Trump's plan. The fear of tariffs has already affected manufacturing across the world, and also boosted sales of imported autos and products. RETALIATORY MEASURES A number of trading partners, including Australia, Europe, Canada, and Mexico, have pledged to respond to the US with retaliatory duties and countermeasures. Some have even sought to negotiate directly with the White House. Trump has claimed that American workers, manufacturers and businesses have suffered for decades from free-trade agreements that have lowered global barriers and increased the U.S. market of imported goods by $3 trillion. This led to a goods deficit exceeding $1.2 trillion. According to the Yale University Budget Lab, a 20% additional tariff would cost an average U.S. family at least $3400.
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The Supreme Court's top cases
In the current term of the U.S. Supreme Court, there are cases that involve guns, gender affirming medical care for minors who identify as transgender, online pornography and religious rights, TikTok and preventive healthcare. There are also cases involving funding Planned Parenthood, job discrimination and federal regulatory powers over nuclear waste storage, vape products and voting rights. Take a look at the recent and upcoming cases that the justices will be deciding. 'GHOST GUN' On March 26, the court upheld a federal rule targeting "ghost guns", which are largely untraceable, imposed by former Democratic President Joe Biden in an effort to crackdown on firearms that have been used in crimes across the country. The ruling by 7-2 overturned the lower court decision that the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives exceeded its authority when it issued the 2022 rule targeting the parts and kits of ghost guns. The court found the regulation to be in line with the 1968 federal Gun Control Act. TRANSGENDER RIGHTS During arguments on 4 December, the court's conservative judges indicated that they were willing to uphold Tennessee's Republican-backed ban on gender affirming medical care for minors who are transgender. This case could have a significant impact on other state laws that target transgender individuals. Biden's Administration appealed the decision of a lower court upholding Tennessee’s ban on medical treatment, including hormones and surgery for minors suffering from gender dysphoria. This refers to the distress caused by the incongruity of a person’s gender identity with the sex assigned at birth. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. MEXICO GUN LAWSUIT On March 4, the justices showed sympathy for a request by two American firearms companies to dismiss the Mexican government’s lawsuit accusing the companies of assisting illegal gun trafficking to the drug cartels, and fueling violence in Mexico's southern neighbor. The justices heard arguments from Smith & Wesson, a firearms manufacturer and distributor of Interstate Arms in their appeal against a lower-court ruling allowing the lawsuit on the basis that Mexico had plausibly alleged the companies aided and facilitated illegal gun sales and harmed its government. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. U.S. TIKTOK BAN On January 17, the justices upheld a federal law that would ban TikTok from the United States if the Chinese parent company ByteDance failed to sell the short video app within a time limit set by Congress. The Justices ruled, 9-0, that the law passed by Congress and signed by Biden last year did not violate First Amendment protections against government abridgment. The justices upheld a lower court decision that had affirmed the measure. Biden's replacement, Republican President Donald Trump chose not to enforce it and instead gave both parties time to work out a compromise. Online Pornography The Justices heard arguments about whether the First Amendment protects against government interference in speech when a Texas law requires that pornographic sites verify users' ages to limit access by minors. The justices voiced concerns over the availability and accessibility of online pornography, but also expressed concern about burdens placed on adults who wish to view constitutionally-protected material. A trade group representing the adult entertainment industry has appealed the decision of a lower court that upheld the Republican-led State's age verification mandate. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. WORKPLACE DISCRIMINATION On February 26, the court heard arguments in a case where a woman claimed that she was denied a job promotion and demoted because of her heterosexuality by an Ohio government agency. The justices seemed to favor making it easier for those from "majority backgrounds" to bring workplace discrimination cases, such as straight or white people. Marlean Amees, the plaintiff, said that she worked with a homosexual supervisor when, in 2019, she was demoted and passed over for promotion to a woman gay. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. RELIGIOUS SCHOOL The court will hear a case that tests the separation between church and state. Two Catholic dioceses are attempting to establish the first taxpayer-funded charter school in Oklahoma. St. Isidore Catholic Virtual School was shut down by a lower court, which ruled that the funding arrangement for the school violated First Amendment restrictions on government endorsements of religion. Arguments will be held on April 30. RELIGIOUS TASKS EXEMPTIONS A Wisconsin Catholic diocese's arm has filed a request for an exemption from Wisconsin's unemployment insurance taxes. The case could have implications for the constitutional rights of religious people. The Catholic Charities Bureau of the Catholic Diocese of Superior appealed the lower court's rejection of its exemption request. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of the bureau, it could force Wisconsin and other states that have similar tax programs in place to expand their exemptions to conform to the First Amendment protections of the U.S. Constitution. The arguments are scheduled for 31 March. LGBT SCHOOL BIBLES The court accepted a request from religious parents who wanted to prevent their children from attending classes in a Maryland district public school when LGBT stories are read. This is yet another case that involves the intersection of religion and LGBT rights. Parents of children attending Montgomery County Public Schools filed an appeal after lower courts refused a plaintiff's request for a preliminary order ordering the district not to read these books. Arguments will be held on April 22. OBAMACARE - PREVENTIVE CARE MANDATES The court will determine the legality of an important component of the Affordable Health Care Act, which gives a taskforce established under the Obamacare healthcare law the power to demand that insurers provide preventive medical services without cost to the patient. The court heard an appeal from the Biden administration against a lower-court ruling which sided with a Christian group of businesses that objected to the fact that their employee health plans covered HIV-preventing medications and had argued the task force structure violated U.S. Constitution. Arguments will be held on April 21. PLANNED PARENTHOOD FINANCE The court will examine South Carolina's attempt to cut off funding to Planned Parenthood. This case could support conservative states in the U.S. who want to deny Planned Parenthood government money for reproductive healthcare. A lower court barred the Republican state from cutting off funding to Planned Parenthood South Atlantic under the Medicaid insurance program. Arguments will be held on April 2. NUCLEAR WASTE STORAGE On March 5, the justices heard arguments over whether the Nuclear Regulatory Commission had the authority to issue licenses for certain nuclear waste facilities, amid objections raised by the state Texas and oil industry interests. The U.S. Government and a company awarded a license to operate an operation in western Texas by the NRC appealed the ruling of a lower court declaring that the storage arrangement was illegal. The NRC regulates nuclear energy in the United States. The NRC is expected to make a decision by the end June. FLAVORED vapor products The Court on April 2, largely backed up the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in its refusal to allow two ecigarette companies to sell flavored vapes that regulators deem a risk to health for youths. The court threw out the lower court decision that found the FDA violated a federal law known as the Administrative Procedure Act by rejecting the applications of the companies Triton Distribution & Vapetasia to sell these nicotine-containing items. EPA AUTHORITY On March 4, the court handed a major blow to the Environmental Protection Agency with a ruling of 5-4. The case involved a wastewater treatment plant owned by San Francisco. This could make it more difficult for regulators and water quality inspectors to monitor pollution. The court ruled that EPA had exceeded its authority in a law against pollution by including vague restrictions on a permit for the facility which discharges into the Pacific Ocean. In recent years, the court has limited the EPA’s power as part of a number of rulings that have curbed the federal regulatory agencies’ powers. TAILPIPE Emissions A major case that tests the power of the Democratic-ruled state to combat greenhouse gases is a challenge by fuel producers against California's standards on vehicle emissions and electric vehicles under a federal law on air pollution. Valero Energy, along with fuel industry groups, appealed the lower court's decision to reject their challenge against a Biden administration decision to let California set its own regulation. Arguments will be held on April 23. The Supreme Court is hearing a dispute regarding the legality and operation of the TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERIES FUND, a fund that Congress authorized to be operated by the Federal Communications Commission in order to increase access to telecommunications. The conservative Consumers' Research group and others accused Congress of illegally delegating authority to an independent federal organization. The FCC, along with a coalition including interest groups and telecoms companies, appealed an earlier court decision which found that Congress had violated the Constitution when it gave the FCC the authority to manage the fund. Arguments will be held on March 26. LOUISIANA ELECTORAL MAP On March 24, the justices heard arguments in a bid to preserve an election map that increased the number of Black-majority districts in the state. This was in response to a legal challenge brought by a group voters who identified themselves as "non African American." Three federal judges determined that the map of Louisiana's six U.S. House of Representatives district - which now has two Black-majority areas, instead of one - violated the Constitutional promise of equal treatment. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. Death Penalty Case On February 25, the court threw away Richard Glossip’s conviction in Oklahoma for a murder-for hire plot that took place in 1997 and gave him a fresh trial. In a 5-3 decision, the justices concluded that prosecutors had violated their constitutional obligation to correct false testimony from their star witness. The justices reversed the lower court decision which had upheld Glossip’s conviction. They also allowed his planned death to proceed despite Glossip’s claim that prosecutors had wrongly withheld information that could have helped his defense. (Compiled by Andrew Chung and John Kruzel; edited by Will Dunham.)
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The largest EV charging network in Europe is launched by a group of charging companies.
Four of Europe's largest electric vehicle charging companies announced on Wednesday that they are teaming up to build the largest public charging networks on the continent. Spark, a new alliance between Atlante in Italy, Ionity in Germany, Fastned from the Netherlands, and Electra of France, will be formed to share their networks. There will be 11,000 charging points, and 1,700 charging stations in 25 European countries. According to the alliance, that is more than its main rival Tesla. Quentin Wilson, founder of EV lobby FairCharge and a British journalist who writes about automobiles, said that the U.S. firm still has the advantage due to its "simple interface without nonsense". Customers in Europe can now access ultra-fast charging of up to 400 kW through the Spark Alliance app. The European Auto Lobby ACEA is pushing for a quicker roll-out of charging infrastructure in order to reassure consumers who are worried about driving distances and increase demand for EVs. The announcement comes as demand for EVs is declining and the EU's emission regulations are being relaxed. According to the European Commission 3.5 million charging stations will be needed by 2030, almost three times more than the last annual installation rate. Aurelien de Meaux is the CEO of Electra and believes that quantity is not as important as quality. The members of the alliance said that matching Tesla was not their top priority, but the new network could boost competition. Tesla is interested in the fact that another large network is focused on providing quality infrastructure to EV drivers. Langezaal stated that the two networks are complementary. According to de Meaux, Tesla could be considered as a partner in the alliance. He said, "They might qualify because they provide a fast and reliable charge experience. But I think that is a question better left for tomorrow." (Additional reporting from Gilles Guillaume Editing done by Mark Potter).
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Trump administration increases beer can imports to 25% US Aluminum tariffs
On Wednesday, the Trump administration announced that it would impose a 25% duty on all beer imports. The beverage and empty aluminum aluminum cans will be added to a list containing derivative products which are subject to aluminum tariffs. In a Federal Register announcement, the Commerce Department stated that duties on beer will be collected at 12:01 am EDT Friday, April 4, starting with empty aluminum cans. The notice reversing Trump's previous aluminum tariff changes only lists the tariff code for malted beer. The notice does not mention a subordinate tariff code for beer imported in glass bottles. The Commerce Department didn't immediately answer any questions about the notice. The announcement comes just hours before Trump announces sweeping tariffs against U.S. trading partner countries, which will escalate a global war of trade and cause price increases. According to U.S. Census Bureau figures, the move would have a significant impact on beer imports which are expected to exceed $7.5 billion by 2024. Mexico dominated U.S. imports of beer last year with $6.3 billion, followed by the Netherlands, $683 million, Ireland, $192 million, and Canada, $73 million. (Reporting and editing by Anna Driver, Susand Heavey, David Lawder)
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Canada gas prices fall after removal of carbon tax
The government removed the consumer carbon tax that was in place since 2019 on Tuesday, resulting in a sharp drop of gasoline prices across Canada. Mark Carney, Canada's new Prime Minister, signed an order removing the Justin Trudeau era consumer carbon taxes on his first official day in office. He declared that the decision will help Canadians who are struggling to make ends meet. The Conservatives had been campaigning against the tax for years. GasBuddy, a fuel market tracker, reported that fuel prices in eight provinces fell by more than six cents a litre after taxation was officially ended on Tuesday. The data shows that the national average price for gasoline in Canada dropped from 155 cents to 143.6 cents on Wednesday. New Brunswick experienced the biggest decline of 15 cents a litre. British Columbia and Ontario also saw significant drops. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan wrote in an email to GasBuddy on Tuesday that "the drops continue widening." According to Susan Bell, a Rystad Energy executive, the carbon price for gasoline between April 1, 2024 and March 31, 2025 was 17.6 cents per kilogram. Prices should therefore fall by this amount. The Canadian Fuels Association has said that it anticipates a reduction of 20 cents per gallon in gasoline prices. This will translate to yearly savings for consumers of over C$500. GasBuddy's data shows that gasoline prices in Quebec rose by 1.9 cents a litre on February 2, making it the only province in Canada with a carbon tax. Bell stated that lower fuel prices may encourage some Canadians not to fly to the United States, but to drive to their domestic destinations instead. She added that the trade war between Canada and the U.S. may increase Canada's unemployment, which will impact on fuel consumption. On Wednesday, Donald Trump is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs with Canada and other trading partners. The Canadian Fuels Association noted that it was difficult to predict the impact of the repeal on fuel demand. A spokesperson for the group stated that "there are too many other factors affecting demand, especially around the direction of the global economy in the context of the U.S. Tariffs of April 2," a spokesperson said. Reporting by Shariq KHan in New York Editing Bill Berkrot
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Tata Power, India plans first coal expansion in six months
Tata Power plans to increase the capacity of a plant located in northern India by increasing its coal power in six years, according a tender document. The clean energy sector in India is suffering from project delays and a weaker demand. Why it's important Tata Power has increased its coal power generation capacity for the first time since it acquired Prayagraj Power Generation Co Ltd in 2019. This was done through a joint-venture. The proposal comes as the Indian government targets at least 500 gigawatts of non-fossil energy capacity by 2030. CONTEXT India's renewable sector faces a number of obstacles, including a lack of demand for bids, problems with land acquisition for projects, delays in power agreements, and cancellations of projects. PPGCL, a 1,980 Megawatts (MW), coal-powered power plant located in Uttar Pradesh's northern state is owned by Tata Power associate Renascent Power. According to a tender document published by the company, PPGCL is now requesting an environmental impact assessment for the expansion of the power plant's capacity by 1,600MW. By the Numbers The cumulative capacity of India's clean power sales agreements that have not been signed has exceeded 40 GW. In 2024, the country added more than 28 GW in solar and wind power. Despite a large pipeline of renewable energy projects, fossil fuels still accounted for over two-thirds (or 63%) of the increase in total electricity generation. India plans to increase its coal-fired power by 80 GW between 2031-32, bringing the total to 220 GW. This will help meet the growing demand for domestic electricity. Tata Power has an 8.9 GW coal portfolio in six Indian States and plans to increase its clean energy capacity from 6.7 GW today, at a cost of $9 billion. Sethuraman N.R. in Bengaluru, Shounak D. Dasgupta edited the article.
Andy Home: Copper market is wary of the US tariffs that will follow.
Since President Donald Trump's February order to investigate U.S. imports of copper, the price of copper has been rising. How long will this last, and how difficult will it be to come down?
It's a race to get as much copper through U.S. Customs as possible before tariffs are implemented. Copper tariffs will come, there's no doubt about that. The question is when and at what level?
Bets are that the copper levies would be 25 percent, which is the same rate as imposed on steel and aluminum imports.
The market believed it had 270-days, which is the maximum time for a Section 232 investigation. It's no longer so sure.
The impact of wider reciprocal trade tariffs, due to be announced Wednesday on what Trump has called "Liberation Day", is uncertain.
The confusing and conflicting tariff situation has divided market opinion. Some analysts have called for higher copper price, while others warn of an impending crash.
'TRUMP TIME'
The CME spot price of copper reached a record high of $5.199 per lb, surpassing its previous peak of $4.199 during the May 20,24 squeeze.
The London Metal Exchange cash price only reached $10,100 per ton. This is a far cry from its peak in May 2024 of $10,900.
Bloomberg reported that tariffs could be implemented in weeks, not months as expected.
This possibility should not have been a surprise. Peter Navarro, White House Trade Advisor, said that at the time the Section 232 announcement was made the investigation would be finished "in Trump's time".
The apparent confirmation that "Trump Time" is a thing has left traders confused about the best time to ship physical copper to the U.S.
PHYSICAL FLOODS
According to Mercuria, up to half a a million tonnes of copper may be headed to the U.S. in order to take advantage of the unprecedented arbitrage opportunities.
Will it arrive in time?
Physical arbitrage is complicated due to the CME's restrictive list of acceptable delivery brands.
Since February's Section 232 declaration, LME stocks have dropped from 258,425 to 106,900 tonnes, and around half the total inventory is now awaiting physical loading-out.
The LME's warehouse system is a mix of Chinese and Russian steel, so it's unlikely much of it will reach the U.S.
LME stocks are instead diverted to buyers who are willing to exchange the South American brands of copper that dominate the CME list of good-delivery.
It may take more time than you think to switch locations and brands in the physical supply chain.
BULLS AND BEARS
If copper tariffs were to arrive sooner than expected, the pull of copper towards the U.S. could be less strong and last shorter than anticipated.
This means that any shortages in other parts of the world will also be less severe than expected.
The markets are bracing themselves for the uncertainty that will be caused by the U.S. reciprocal trade tariffs, which are expected to be announced in the coming week.
The way micro- and macro-tariffs interact on the copper market has divided opinion.
Goldman Sachs remains in the bulls' camp and has maintained its forecasts of LME copper prices for three, six, and twelve months at $9,600 per ton and $10,700.
Citi has, on the other hand, cut its short-term forecast of $10,000 per ton to $9,500 and expects an average price of $8,800 for the second half.
BNP Paribas is still too optimistic. They predict a price drop to $8,500 a ton as soon as the copper tariffs come into effect and arbitrage trading stops.
You're not alone if you have questions about copper.
The price outlook is still unclear until Doctor Copper and the rest of the world get more clarity about Trump's tariffs.
Do not hold your breath.
These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
(source: Reuters)