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Gold recovers from a two-week low after thin trading sparks volatile movements
The price of gold rose on Tuesday after a sharp drop in the previous session. Thin 'year-end' trade exacerbated volatility. Traders expect fundamental factors to drive precious metals up to new heights by 2026. As of 0541 GMT on Monday, spot gold was up by 1.1% to $4,378.29 an ounce after reaching a record-high of $4,549.71 last Friday. On Monday, it fell to its lowest level since December 17, marking the sharpest percentage decline since October 21. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery were up by 1.1% to $4,392.0/oz. Kyle Rodda is a senior analyst with Capital.com. He said: "The fact that we have had such a substantial selloff since Monday's open... just goes to show the significant volatility, probably compounded because of thinner trading conditions due to the holiday season." On Monday, the relative strength indexes for gold and silver both fell from a state of 'overbought.' Bullion has risen 66% in 2025. Gold's rise this year has been fueled by a number of factors, including interest rate cuts, bets on further U.S. policy ease, geopolitical conflict, central bank demand, and increased holdings of exchange-traded fund. The traders expect the U.S. to cut rates at least twice next year. In a low-interest rate environment, non-yielding investments tend to perform well. Silver spot was up 3.7% to $74.85 an ounce after reaching a record high of $83.62 the previous session. On Monday, silver posted its largest daily loss since August 11, 2020. Metals like copper and zinc have seen a 154% increase in value year-to date, outpacing gold. This is due to their inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list, low inventories, and supply constraints. Kelvin Wong is a senior market analyst at OANDA. He said: "I expect the longer-term rally for both gold & silver to continue, with price targets for the next six month at $5,010/oz gold and $90.90 silver." Spot platinum increased 3.1%, to $2174.91 an ounce. It dropped the most in a single day after reaching an all-time record high of $2478.50 on Monday. Palladium dropped 16% in value on Monday, and its price fell 0.2%, to $1,614.0 an ounce. Ishaan arora, Rashmi aich, Harikrishnan Nair, and Sonia Cheema edited the article.
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Silver, gold stabilized after sharp decline
Investors counted "bumper gains" heading into the year-end trading, while gold and silver found their feet after a sharp drop from record highs?took a little froth out of precious metals' searing rise. The oil prices held on to their gains overnight as Russia accused Ukraine of attacking the residence of President Vladimir Putin. Although Moscow did not provide any evidence to support its claims, this is a blow for U.S. peace efforts. Donald Trump also added to the global geopolitical tensions when he said that he would support another major attack on Iran. China began a 10-hour live-firing exercise around Taiwan on February 2. Silver and other precious metals experienced volatile price swings over the weekend due to a lack of liquidity across most markets. Silver fell 8.7% after hitting a record of $84 an ounce. This was the largest one-day drop since August 2020. It brought gold and copper with it. The white metal rose 2.5% on Tuesday to $74.1 an ounce, and is still on course for a 156% annual gain. Gold gained 0.7%, to $4,361 an ounce after falling 4.4% overnight. Tony Sycamore is an analyst at IG Sydney. He said that the initial gap in the price of silver was probably due to stop losses, panic buying, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange increasing margin requirements. The move was short-lived, with no buyers at these high levels. "We have seen a cooling of the precious metals, but I do not think that this trend is over. We still got deficits. We still got nation stockpiling. "We have export restrictions," Sycamore said. This generational bubble has ended? Not sure. "Jury's out on that." The MSCI broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan, which includes Japan, rose 0.1% on Tuesday and is set to achieve a gain of 26.7% for the year, its best performance in 2017. The Nikkei 225 index of Japan shares fell 0.1%, but it was still up 26.7% for the year. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose by 0.4%, while China's blue chip index rose by 0.2%. In Asia, all U.S. stock futures and European stock futures were largely unchanged. Wall Street?finished down overnight as heavyweight tech stocks retreated after last week's gains. Even so, U.S. stock prices were still on track to finish 2025 at record highs after a turbulent year marked by tariff wars and central bank policy, as well as simmering geopolitical conflicts. DOLLAR?S?BAD YEAR The dollar was stable on the currency market ahead of the Federal Reserve minutes for the December meeting, which are expected to show a central bank that is divided and unsure about its policy direction next year. The dollar index is set to experience its biggest annual drop in eight years, a decline of almost 10%. The yen was hovering at?156.06 to the dollar, a little away from the 158-160 range that could prompt intervention by Japanese authorities. The euro was at $1.1777 and on track for a 13.7% gain this year. The U.S. Dollar has been impacted by the prospect of further rate cuts next year and this has helped Treasuries to rally, particularly at the short end. The yield on two-year bonds fell 1 basis point, to 3.4586%. This is the fourth consecutive session that they have fallen. They were down nearly 80 basis points for the year. The 10-year bond yield was set to drop by 46 basis points annually. After a gain of over 2%, oil prices remained largely stable on Tuesday. Brent crude futures were unchanged at $61.92 per barrel after a 2.1% increase on Monday. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude fell 0.1% to $58.01 per barrel.
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Investors seek clarity over Russia-Ukraine negotiations, but oil prices remain unchanged
Tuesday's oil prices were unchanged after a rise of over 2% the previous day. Investors sought clarification on Ukraine peace negotiations to gauge potential supply disruptions. Brent crude futures, for delivery in February, expiring on Tuesday, fell 2 cents to $61.92 per barrel at 0314 GMT. The March contract, which is more active, was down 5 cents at $61.44. West Texas Intermediate crude oil in the United States fell 5 cents to $58.03. Brent and WTI benchmarks closed more than 2% higher the previous session, after Moscow accused Kyiv that it was targeting President Vladimir Putin's residence. This stoked fears of supply disruptions. Kyiv dismissed Moscow's accusations as baseless, and meant to undermine the?peace talks. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he was angry by the details of a?alleged attack after a telephone call with Putin. Oil prices could be affected by the escalating geopolitical conflicts, even though Trump has repeatedly stated that a peace deal is near. Ed Meir, Marex analyst, said: "I believe the markets sense that a deal will be difficult to achieve." The Middle East was also a concern for traders after Trump stated that the United States would support a major strike against Iran if Tehran re-built its ballistic missile or nuclear weapons program. Trump warned the Palestinian militant group Hamas that it would suffer severe consequences if they did not disarm. He also said he wanted to "move on to the second phase" of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which was reached in October following a 'two-year war in Gaza. Analysts say that despite increased fears of supply disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions there is still a perception of an "oversupplied" global market, which could limit prices. Marex's Meir?said that prices would be trending downwards in 2026 because of a "growing glut of oil." "Given crosscurrents between?U.S. led peace efforts, persistent oversupply worries versus simmering tensions in geopolitical affairs - we expect WTI will continue to trade at $55-60 in the near-term," IG analysts stated in a Tuesday note. (Reporting from Anushree mukherjee, Bengaluru; Sudarshan Varadhan, Singapore; Editing by Shri Navaratnam & Kate Mayberry).
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Iron ore prices fall as shipments increase
The price of iron ore futures fell on Tuesday as increased shipments by major suppliers Australia and Brazil dampened sentiment. However, lingering hope that steelmakers in China, the top consumer, would restock their cargoes, limited the losses. The May contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed morning trade at 790.5 Yuan ($112.92) per metric ton, a decrease of 0.25%. On?Monday, the contract reached its highest level since December 3. By 0417 GMT, the benchmark January iron ore at the Singapore Exchange had fallen by 0.22% to $105.55 per ton. In the previous session, it reached its highest level since November 27 at $106.55. Data from Mysteel, a consultancy, showed that iron ore shipments to Australia and Brazil, two of the world's largest suppliers, increased 8.6% in a week during December 22-28. Analysts predict that Chinese steel mills will book more cargoes over the next few weeks to cover production requirements during the Lunar New Year break, which lasts a week in February. Analysts say that Chinese developer Vanke has received approval from its bondholders to extend the grace period on the repayment of the 3.7 billion yuan loan, thereby removing the risk of default. The property market in China was the biggest steel consumer, but long-term?problems in this sector weighed on steel consumption and feedstock prices. Coking coal and coke, two other?steelmaking components, gained a lot of ground on the DCE. Steel benchmarks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been moving sideways. Rebar gained 0.16%, while stainless steel gained 1,55%. Hot-rolled coils slipped 0.06%, while wire rods fell by 1.59%.
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Silver recovers from a two-week low and gold bounces back
On Tuesday, gold rose to recover from a two week low that was hit the previous session. This is due to a 'profit-taking at year-end which sparked a wide pullback of precious metals. As of 0322 GMT spot gold was up by 0.7% to $4,363.79 an ounce after reaching a record-high of $4,549.71 last Friday. On Monday, it fell to its lowest level since December 17, and also suffered its biggest daily loss?since October 21, U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery were up 0.8% to $4,377.80/oz. Kelvin Wong is a senior market analyst with OANDA. He said that the earlier run was overextended within the last week. This makes the precious metals more vulnerable to the leveraged positions being squeezed at the bottom. On Monday, the relative strength indices (RSIs) for gold and silver both fell from their overbought levels. Bullion is on a stellar rise in 2025. It has already risen 66%. Gold's rise this year has been fueled by interest rate cuts, bets on further easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve and geopolitical conflict, strong demand from central bankers, and increasing holdings in exchange traded funds. The traders expect two rate cuts at least next year. In a low interest rate environment, non-yielding investments tend to perform well. Silver spot was up 3% to $74.41 an ounce after reaching a record high of $83.62 the previous session. On Monday, silver registered its biggest daily loss since August 11 2020. Silver is up 154% in the past year, outpacing gold. This has been attributed to its inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list, low inventories, and supply constraints. Wong said, "I expect the longer-term rally for both gold and silver to continue with price targets of $5,010/oz gold, and $90.90 silver in the next six month." Spot Platinum increased 1.1% to $2132.86 an ounce. It dropped the most ever in one day on Monday after reaching an all-time record high of $2478.50. Palladium rose 1.1%, to $1,634.29 an ounce after it dropped 16% in value on Monday. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich, Harikrishnan Nair, and Ishaan arora)
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China pledges to stabilize grain and edible oil production at key meeting
China must stabilize grain and edible oils production, improve 'grain varieties' and enhance quality. This was the message of state-run news agency Xinhua on Tuesday following a meeting of the annual Central Rural Work Conference held from December 29-30. The group that sets China's agricultural priority has pledged to "enhance capacity for diversified supply" and promote high-quality development through?zoned- and categorised-planning". China relies heavily on imports to feed the population. Tensions with U.S.A., its'major trading partner in agriculture, have led it to invest more in seed technology and machinery. A Xinhua report on the meeting stated that "we must not relax our effort?in grain cultivation, promote?the?integration of high quality land, high quality seeds, high quality machinery, and high-quality farming techniques to enhance the agricultural production capacity and the overall production and the quality." In the readout, China said it would "make every possible effort" to promote stable employment and increase farmer's income as Beijing seeks food security despite economic challenges and urbanization pressures. The readout said that China will also launch province-wide programs to extend rural land use?contracts another 30 years, after the current?contracts expire in 2027. China's total output of grain has reached a record in this year, with a 1.2% increase from 2024, reaching 714.9 millions tons. This is according to data released by the statistics bureau earlier this month.
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Cavaliers beat Spurs with a 4th quarter outburst
Jarrett Allen scored 27 points, grabbed 10 rebounds, and led a decisive run in the fourth quarter as the Cleveland Cavaliers defeated the San Antonio Spurs 113-101 on Monday. San Antonio was ahead by a bucket going into the final quarter, but fell apart during a stretch where the Cavaliers turned an initial three-point deficit to a 101-89 advantage with 5:05 remaining. Jaylon Tyson hit back-to-back three-pointers to start the crucial run, while Darius Garland scored five points and Donovan Mitchell added another five. Spurs lost their second consecutive game after eight straight wins. Evan Mobley scored?16 for Cavaliers to end a losing streak of two games. Garland had 15 points and 11 assists, Tyson, De'Andre Hunter and Mitchell each scored 11 points, while Dean Wade and Dean Wade both hit 10 points. Victor Wembanyama, who led the Spurs with 26 and 14 rebounds. Stephon Castle scored 15 points. De'Aaron Fox had 14 points. Dylan Harper had 11 points. Keldon Johnson scored 10. San Antonio scored a 14-3 run, capped off by a Wembanyama three-pointer, to erase a 10 point deficit and gain a 26-25 lead after 12 minutes. Early in the second quarter, the teams were alternating. Two Johnson free throws at 4:16 left in the quarter put the Spurs ahead 43-42. A 12-0 run punctuated with two Luke Kornet free throws at?2:03 gave San Antonio a 10-point advantage. The Spurs were ahead by 11 points when?Cleveland ended the first half with a Sam Merrill 3-pointer and two Mitchell free throws to reduce its deficit to 55-49 at the break. Wembanyama scored 11 points before halftime, while Castle added another 11. Allen led Cleveland with 12 points. After a series of free throws by Fox and Wembanyama in the final two minutes, Mobley's two free throws with 0.7 seconds left in the quarter brought Cleveland within 78-76. Two Mobley free-throws, with 0.7 seconds remaining in the third quarter, brought Cleveland to within 78 76. Fox and Wembanyama had made a series free throws over the last two minutes. Field Level Media
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Shanghai copper prices fall due to weaker Chinese demand and profit-booking
Shanghai copper fell on Tuesday as profit-taking, a weaker Chinese economy and a general risk-off trend weighed on the markets. As of?0330 GMT the most traded contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.96% to $14,064.78, per metric ton. It briefly touched 96,010, its lowest level since December 25. Losses in the first minutes of trading have narrowed, after gains in the benchmark 3-month copper at the London Metal Exchange which rose 2.19% to $12,489.50 per ton. Traders said that lower copper prices encouraged dip-buying and helped reduce losses. Shanghai copper prices fell as profit-taking and a weaker Chinese demand due to high prices led to the decline. Yangshan Copper Premium A measure of Chinese appetite for imported copper fell to $53 per ton on Sunday, down from $55 the previous day, but still an improvement over below $40 since mid October. Copper was also impacted by the broader move to a risk off stance among investors. Gold and silver both saw a decline from Monday's record highs. Investors continue to watch the U.S. Federal Reserve, after President Donald Trump threatened to sue Fed chair Jerome Powell on Monday. They are also waiting for the minutes of the December meeting of the central banks to be published on Tuesday. Tin was the most affected among other SHFE metals. The Shanghai contract fell 4.84%, to 325 780?yuan per ton. Stock levels continue to increase, despite the high tin price. Tin stocks that are available for delivery According to Friday's SHFE weekly stock report, the number of sheds in SHFE rose to 8,477 tonnes last week. The benchmark three-month?tin rose, however, by 1.59%, to $41,390 per ton. Nickel surged. The Shanghai contract for the most active nickel rose 3.71%, to 132200 yuan per ton after reaching a nine-month high. The benchmark nickel for three months also rose, rising 4.15% and reaching $16,470 per ton. After breaching the $16,500 mark to hit a high of $16,540 in nine months. The reported plan by the Indonesian government of reducing nickel production in 2026 is what has caused the recent strength of nickel. Other SHFE metals include zinc, which gained 0.56% and lead, which added 0.40%. ($1 = 7.0026 Chinese yuan renminbi) (Reporting by China C&E Team; Editing by Rashmi Aich) ($1 = 7.0026 Chinese Yuan Renminbi)
Wall Street is ready for Trump's tariff announcement; the fog of uncertainty continues to envelop Wall Street
The scheduled announcement of U.S. President Donald Trump on April 2, 2019 could remove the fog of uncertainty that has engulfed financial markets in this year. However, few investors expect definitive guidance.
Investors were optimistic about the pro-growth policies of Trump's government in 2025, but since his inauguration, the stock market has plummeted. Wall Street was thrown into turmoil by headlines about tariffs, which caused the S&P to fall as much as 10 percent earlier this month.
The benchmark index will likely finish the first quarter with a decline of about 5%. This is its largest drop for the first three-month period since 2020.
Mark Malek is Chief Investment Officer of Siebert Financial. He said: "I am an eternal bull but I believe that there are more downsides than upsides between now and the end of next week and the start to earnings season."
The benchmark index fell about 2% Friday, after data revealed that U.S. consumers spent more in February despite rising prices of goods and services. The market's slide shows how investors are sensitive to any indication that Trump's trade protectionist agenda may reignite inflation.
The announcement of tariffs on April 2 should reveal the countries and sectors that Trump's administration is targeting as it attempts to reduce the $1.2 trillion global trade deficit.
Stock prices are expected to be volatile, and will fluctuate wildly depending on factors like how high the tariffs will go, for how long, and which sectors and countries they will target.
Michael Arone is the chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors.
Arone stated that there is a possibility of more volatility after April 2nd.
The threat of retaliation was made by governments in Ottawa and Paris on Thursday after Trump announced a 25% tariff for imported vehicles. This slashed auto stocks, testing the already strained relations with allies.
Angelo Kourkafas is a senior investment strategist with Edward Jones. He said that the announcement on April 2 will likely not be a "one-and-done" event.
Kourkafas stated that "it is an important landmark, but it does not completely remove all of the uncertainty which could still exist."
All Spinach and No Candy
Matthew Aks is a senior strategist with Evercore ISI. He said that the market's reaction on April 2, "will heavily depend" on future tariffs and sectoral tariffs. It will also depend on how quickly other countries can retaliate against reciprocal tariffs.
He said that if other countries retaliated, it could create an escalatory loop that would dampen any sense of relief.
Barclays strategists lowered their target price of S&P500 for 2025 to 5,900, from 6,600. They did this because they expect earnings to be hit by tariffs, which will cause a slowdown in U.S. economic activity, but not a recession.
The bank reduced its estimate of 2025 S&P500 EPS to $262, from $271. This implies a growth that is slightly below trend, as a result of tariffs. Discretionary stocks are among the most susceptible.
UBS Global Wealth Management lowered its S&P500 2025 forecast to $6,400 from 6,600. It also lowered the 2025 S&P500 EPS forecast to $265 by $5.
There are also upside risks. If the Trump administration's proposed tariffs are not as bad as the market fears, the recent stock drop could be a buying opportunity.
Jamie Cox, Managing Partner of Harris Financial Group, said that he did not expect anything to happen that would shock the market on the downside. Jamie Cox would see any new bout of weakness in the market as an opportunity to buy.
Some people said that the deadline for tariffs could allow Trump to switch to market-friendly policies such as tax cuts.
Robert Pavlik is a senior portfolio manager with Dakota Wealth. He said, "I believe they will start to shift gears and move away from tariffs."
"That won't disappear completely, but the focus will be on tax issues." "That's what I hope for."
This could lead to a resurgence in the appetite of investors for risky assets.
Arone, from State Street, said: "It has been a year of spinach but no candy. I believe the candy will come later in the season."
During Trump's initial term, the S&P 500 lost 18% of its value between January and December 2018, as a U.S. - China trade war erupted. As trade war fears eased, the index recovered all of its lost ground in about three months.
Investors worry, however, that a prolonged back and forth on tariffs increases the chances of lasting damage to U.S. economic growth. Investors worried about tariffs and a possible recession, which could lead to a drop in consumer confidence.
Malek, a Siebert employee, said: "I've never seen a confidence movement like this without a negative impact somewhere." John Canavan is the lead analyst at Oxford Economics. He said that recent stock market nervousness was largely due to fears of tariffs causing a significant economic slowdown. Canavan believes that some recent weakness may spill over into the second quarter.
Investors have been discouraged from buying stocks at a discount after Wall Street's decline in the last quarter due to uncertainty over tariffs.
Arone, from State Street, said that a greater level of clarity would allow the markets to rise.
He said, "I'm still sceptical that we will achieve that clarity... but we are hopeful."
(source: Reuters)