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Australia's resource and energy export earnings are expected to be affected by the lower US dollar
The government announced on Monday that Australia's mining exports and energy earnings will fall by 6% during the current financial year, as the prices of iron ore are falling. The Department of Industry stated in its quarterly resource and energy outlook that profits are expected to fall from A$415bn to A$387bn ($243bn) due to the "impact of lower U.S. dollars prices on our energy and resource exports". The decline forecast was less than the 10% predicted in December. The report stated that "further modest declines in earnings are expected over the five-year forecast", with the amount of A$343billion remaining constant at the end. It said that the value of Australia's exports of energy was returning to "moderate levels" after having experienced "extremely higher levels" in both 2021-22 and 2020-23. The high energy prices during this period, due to the COVID-19 epidemic, the bad weather conditions and the fallout of Russia's invasion in Ukraine, encouraged an increase in supply. The report predicted that iron ore prices would continue to fall due to the strong global growth of supply and the lower demand in China. Exports of iron ore to China, which are a good indicator of Chinese industrial activities, dropped by 14.8% from Port Hedland in Australia.
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Wall Street is ready for Trump's tariff announcement; the fog of uncertainty continues to envelop Wall Street
The scheduled announcement of U.S. President Donald Trump on April 2, 2019 could remove the fog of uncertainty that has engulfed financial markets in this year. However, few investors expect definitive guidance. Investors were optimistic about the pro-growth policies of Trump's government in 2025, but since his inauguration, the stock market has plummeted. Wall Street was thrown into turmoil by headlines about tariffs, which caused the S&P to fall as much as 10 percent earlier this month. The benchmark index will likely finish the first quarter with a decline of about 5%. This is its largest drop for the first three-month period since 2020. Mark Malek is Chief Investment Officer of Siebert Financial. He said: "I am an eternal bull but I believe that there are more downsides than upsides between now and the end of next week and certainly at the start earnings season." The benchmark index fell about 2% Friday, after data revealed that U.S. consumers spent more in February despite rising prices of goods and services. The market's slide shows how investors are sensitive to any indication that Trump's trade protectionist agenda may reignite inflation. The announcement of tariffs on April 2 should reveal the countries and sectors that Trump's administration is targeting as it attempts to reduce a global goods trade surplus of $1.2 trillion. Stock prices are expected to be volatile, and will fluctuate wildly depending on a number of factors, including the amount and duration of tariffs, which sectors and countries they will target, and any retaliatory actions from trading partners. Michael Arone is the chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. Arone stated that there is a possibility of more volatility after April 2nd. The threat of retaliation was made by governments in Ottawa and Paris on Thursday after Trump announced a 25% tariff for imported vehicles. This slashed auto stocks, testing the already strained relations with allies. Angelo Kourkafas is a senior investment strategist with Edward Jones. He said that the announcement on April 2 will likely not be a "one-and-done" event. Kourkafas stated that "it is an important landmark, but it does not completely remove all of the uncertainty which could still exist." All Spinach and No Candy Matthew Aks is a senior strategist with Evercore ISI. He said that the market's reaction on April 2, "will heavily depend" on future tariffs and sectoral tariffs. It will also depend on how quickly other countries can retaliate against reciprocal tariffs. He said that if other countries retaliated, it could create an escalatory loop that would dampen any sense of relief. Barclays strategists lowered their target price of S&P500 for 2025 to 5,900, from 6,600. They did this because they expect earnings to be hit by tariffs, which will cause a slowdown in U.S. economic activity, but not a recession. The bank reduced its estimate of 2025 S&P500 EPS to $262, from $271. This implies a growth that is slightly below trend, as a result of tariffs. Discretionary stocks are among the most susceptible. UBS Global Wealth Management lowered its S&P500 2025 forecast to $6,400 from 6,600. It also lowered the 2025 S&P500 EPS forecast to $265 by $5. There are also upside risks. If the Trump administration's proposed tariffs are not as bad as the market fears, the recent stock drop could be a buying opportunity. Jamie Cox, Managing Partner of Harris Financial Group, said that he did not expect anything to happen that would shock the market on the downside. Jamie Cox would see any new bout of weakness in the market as an opportunity to buy. Some people said that the deadline for tariffs could allow Trump to switch to market-friendly policies such as tax cuts. Robert Pavlik is a senior portfolio manager with Dakota Wealth. He said, "I believe they will start to shift gears and move away from tariffs." "That won't disappear completely, but the focus will be on tax issues." "That's what I hope for." This could lead to a resurgence in the appetite of investors for risky assets. Arone, from State Street, said: "It has been all spinach so far and no candy. But I think candy will likely come later in the season." During Trump's initial term, the S&P 500 lost 18% of its value between January and December 2018, as a U.S. - China trade war intensified. As trade war fears eased, the index recovered all of its lost ground in about three months. Investors worry, however, that a prolonged back and forth on tariffs increases the chances of lasting damage to U.S. economic growth. Investors worried about tariffs and a possible recession, which could lead to a drop in consumer confidence. Malek, a Siebert employee, said: "I've never seen a confidence movement like this without a negative impact somewhere." John Canavan is the lead analyst at Oxford Economics. He said that recent stock market nervousness was largely due to fears of tariffs causing a significant economic slowdown. Canavan believes that some recent weakness may spill over into the second quarter. Investors have been discouraged from buying stocks at a discount after Wall Street's decline in the last quarter due to uncertainty over tariffs. Arone, from State Street, said that a greater level of clarity would allow the markets to rise. He said, "I'm still sceptical that we will achieve that clarity... but we'll see."
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India court rejects JSW Steel and Trafigura requests to clear certain metcoke imports
A court order shows that an Indian court denied requests by JSW Steel and Trafigura for certain shipments of steelmaking raw materials. This is the latest setback since New Delhi's new import policy rattled the industry. India has since January restricted imports of met coke (metalurgical coke with low ash), and set country-specific quotas for domestic suppliers. This move has upset steel giants like ArcelorMittal Nippon India who are worried about the quality and business impact of locally produced met-coke. JSW Steel challenged New Delhi’s decision to refuse imports worth $90 million, which were ordered before the restrictions in January kicked in. Trafigura’s India unit also filed a suit to have one of its rejected shipments cleared. The Delhi High Court dismissed these appeals late on Saturday night. It agreed with the Indian Government's view that the imports would defeat the purpose for the new policy. In his order, Judge Sachin Datt noted that the Indian government claimed the companies knew about the impending restrictions at the time they placed their import order. The quantity of met-coke sought by the companies will exceed the quota restrictions. JSW has declined to comment, while Trafigura has not responded immediately. New Delhi has limited overseas purchases between January and July to 1.4 millions metric tons. India is the second largest producer of crude iron and steel in the world. ArcelorMittal Nippon India warned the Indian government that New Delhi's import restrictions could force it to curtail its steelmaking plans and severely limit their expansion. This was reported previously. The case has yet to be resolved. (Reporting and editing by Aditya K. Kalra, Michael Perry, and Arpan Chaturvedi)
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Trump met with Ecuadorean president Noboa on Saturday in Florida
On Saturday, U.S. president Donald Trump met with Ecuadorean president Daniel Noboa at a hotel in Florida. The meeting came ahead of the tight run-off vote on April 13, which will pit Noboa and leftist Luisa Gonzales against each other. Noboa was elected to finish the remaining term of his predecessor in 2023 on the promise to fight drug gangs which have caused turmoil to the once tranquil South American nation. Trump made combating the fentanyl that is responsible for 70,000 deaths per year in the United States a major pillar of his second tenure in office, by imposing tariffs against Mexico, Canada and China. Noboa shared a photo of him and his wife with Trump on X late Saturday night, but did not add any commentary. White House officials confirmed that the meeting would be held on Friday but did not provide any details. Trump met with the Finnish President Alexander Stubb earlier that day at Trump's golf club in West Palm Beach in Florida. The two discussed their bilateral relationship and played a round golf. Noboa, along with his wife, attended Trump's inaugural in Washington D.C. in January. This month, it was reported that Ecuadorean officials told Trump's allies they were interested in hosting an American military base. They also expressed interest in a free-trade agreement with the United States similar to those in place in Colombia and Peru. Noboa, the son of one Ecuador's wealthiest businessmen, has deployed the military in the streets and prisons using state-of-emergency declarations. He also implemented harsher sentences and cheered on the arrest of major gang leader. Noboa said that Ecuador would not accept deported migrants from other countries, but it will always welcome its citizens. He also criticized Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez for rejecting briefly flights of Venezuelan migrants who were deported by the United States. Noboa announced an "alliance" with Erik Prince, a prominent Trump backer and founder and CEO of the private military company Blackwater. The alliance will be used to combat crime and narcoterrorism within this 17-million-strong country. Mark Feierstein is a former senior official of the Biden and Obama Administrations. He said that the timing of Noboa's meeting with Trump, just before the elections, suggested both sides thought it would help Noboa. "Trump's reputation is crashing in the U.S., and all over the globe." "Ecuador is a pro U.S. nation, but this type of intervention could give Gonzalez an extra boost," said he. Noboa has made a public argument for the bringing of foreign military bases into Ecuador. The Ecuadorean parliament is at the beginning stages of a process that could remove a constitutional prohibition on such facilities, instituted in 2008 under the support of the former leftist president Rafael Correa. After Noboa's election, the Biden administration expanded U.S.-Ecuador security cooperation. This included launching a bilateral defense group in 2023. Noboa has ratified two agreements of military cooperation with the United States. These agreements establish a framework that allows U.S. personnel to operate in Ecuador, and allow for joint naval activities to combat illicit activities and drug trafficking. The U.S. had a base in the Galapagos Islands, an environmentally sensitive area during World War Two. A separate base was used to fight narcotics on the mainland up until 2009. (Reporting from Andrea Shalal in Quito and Alexandra Valencia, Washington; additional reporting from Gram Slattery; editing by Diane Craft and Rod Nickel)
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Sudan army chief vows to punish RSF and extends control of capital
In a video message released on Saturday, Sudanese Army Chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan said that he would crush the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. He reaffirmed the commitment of the military to restore national unity and stability. Burhan said that fighters who "repent of the truth" and lay down their weapons, especially those in rebel-held regions, could still receive amnesty if they do so. On Saturday morning, the army announced that it had taken over a large market in Khartoum’s twin city, Omdurman. The RSF had used the market to launch attacks against civilians during the devastating war of two years ago. The Sudanese Army has also declared victory in Khartoum over the RSF, claiming to control most of the capital. The conflict between the RSF and the army has unleashed waves ethnic violence and created the worst humanitarian crisis in the world, according to the United Nations. It also plunged many areas into famine. In a press release, the army claimed that it had taken control of the market at western Omdurman's Souq Libya after capturing weapons and equipment the RSF left behind when they fled. Souq Libya, one of Sudan's largest and busiest commercial hubs, is located in the city. Two large military bases are located in Omdurman. The army has already taken control of most of the city. The army appears to be determined to control the entire capital, consisting of three cities: Khartoum and Omdurman, separated by the branches of the River Nile. The RSF did not comment on the army's advances in Omdurman where paramilitary groups still control some territory. The war broke out amid a power battle between the army, RSF and civilians ahead of a planned transfer to civilian rule. The war ravaged Khartoum and forced more than 12,000,000 Sudanese to flee their homes. About half of the 50,000,000 population suffered from acute hunger. It is difficult to estimate the total number of deaths, but according to a report published last year the death toll could have reached 61,000 people in Khartoum alone during the first 14-months of the conflict. In recent years, the war in Sudan has caused instability throughout the region. Sudan's neighbours, including Chad, Central African Republic, and South Sudan, have all experienced internal conflicts. Khalid Abdulaziz (Reporting, Menna alaa El-Din, and Mohamed Ezz. Editing by Aidan Lewis & Timothy Heritage).
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Denmark's Prime Minister will visit Greenland from April 2 to 4 amid U.S. Interest
Mette Frederiksen, Danish Prime Minister, will visit Greenland from April 2 to 4 for discussions with the new government of the semi-autonomous region, she announced on Saturday. This comes amid U.S. interests in gaining control of this Arctic island. Frederiksen stated in a press release that he was looking forward to the continuation of Greenland's close and trusted cooperation with Denmark. JD Vance, the U.S. vice president, visited a U.S. base in Greenland's north on Friday. He accused Denmark of failing to protect the island. Denmark has controlled Greenland from 1721. He made his comments hours after Greenland had formed a broad coalition government led by Jens Frederik Nielsen who called Denmark Denmark's closest ally. Frederiksen said that Vance's description was unfair. He said, "It is up to Greenland for the people to decide their future." In a statement made on Saturday, she said: "I am deeply impressed by the way the Greenlandic people are dealing with the enormous pressures on Greenland." "It's a situation which calls for unity between political parties, and among the countries of the Realm." (Reporting and editing by Timothy Heritage, Jacob GronholtPedersen)
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Stellantis will buy CO2 credits also in 2025 from Tesla's 'pool', says exec
Stellantis, a group of carmakers, will also buy credits in 2025 from a "pool", led by Tesla, to meet the European Union's CO2 requirements. This is despite Brussels' three-year deadline for carmakers to comply. The carmakers who are facing stricter EU emission rules this year have agreed to pool emissions in order to avoid heavy fines. They will buy carbon credits for their lower sales of electric vehicles (EVs) from the segment leaders, including Tesla and Polestar. Stellantis is the second-largest car manufacturer in Europe. It joined a group led by Tesla that also included other competitors. The European Commission has bowed to pressure from European carmakers and now allows compliance based upon the average emissions of a manufacturer's cars over the period 2025-2027, not just 2025, as originally envisaged. Jean-Philippe Imparato, head of European operations at Stellantis, said that he would use all the credits purchased from Tesla in this year. Imparato was speaking at an automobile event in Turin. It said that Stellantis had a 14% EV mix of its European sales, as opposed to the 21% EU target. He said that the 2027 extension gives us "some breathing space" but doesn't provide a solution. Imparato said that production of the Fiat 500 hybrid city car will begin at the Stellantis Mirafiori in Turin, in November. The car is expected to be produced in both its hybrid and electric versions with a target annual output of 130,000 cars. (Reporting and editing by Valentina Za; Giulio Piolovaccari)
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US companies warn French companies to comply with Trump's ban on diversity
The Trump administration ordered French companies that have contracts with the U.S. federal government to comply with its executive order prohibiting diversity, equity and inclusion programs. This highlights the extraterritorial impact of U.S. policy and their possible impact on European corporate practice. Companies have been asked to fill out a form entitled "Certification regarding compliance with applicable federal anti-discrimination law." The questionnaire has been seen. The move comes amid increasing economic and political tensions in the United States and Europe after Donald Trump's election, which was based on a "America First" platform. The differences in approaches between France and the U.S. also raises concerns about what practical changes companies might need to make. Companies in the United States have adopted Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Policies, tracking race and ethnicity and setting diversity goals. In France, the secular approach restricts such practices. Data collection is restricted by law, and corporate efforts are focused more on gender and socioeconomic background. The documents are also likely to spark concern in European boardrooms, that the Trump administration has expanded its fight against DEI overseas. This is at a moment when Trump's actions regarding tariffs and security relations have shattered transatlantic relationships. The U.S. Embassy in Paris, according to the French business newspaper Les Echos which reported this demand for the first time late Friday night, had sent it out to companies. According to a French newspaper Le Figaro's website, the letter reads: "We inform that Executive Order 14173 Ending Illegal discrimination and Restoring merit-based opportunities, signed by President Trump applies to all U.S. government suppliers and service providers, regardless of nationality or country of operation." We would appreciate it if you could sign and complete the document in English and email it back to us within five days. We would like to know why you don't want to sign the document. This information will be forwarded to our legal department. A request for comment was not immediately responded to by a spokesperson from the embassy. No indication was given that the companies selected to receive the letter were chosen based on the presence of the company in the United States. Sources close to the issue confirmed that France's Orange, the state-controlled French telecoms group, received the letter, despite the fact that it has no U.S. operations. According to spokespersons for both companies, the oil and gas major TotalEnergies as well as the defence electronics company Thales, which have operations in the U.S.A., also did not receive the award. Orange declined to comment. Un official in the office of French Finance Minister Eric Lombard confirmed that the issue would be raised with the U.S. Government. This practice reflects values of the newly elected U.S. Government. The values of the new U.S. government are different from ours. "The minister will remind the U.S. counterparts of this," said the official. It was not immediately apparent if similar questionnaires and letters had been sent to other foreign companies in Europe. Reporting by John Irish, Mathieu rosemain. Richard Lough and Kirby Donovan edited by Mark Potter.
What is Trump's new 25% tariff on US auto imports?
Donald Trump, who has been threatening new tariffs for weeks on imported vehicles, followed through with his threats on Wednesday. He said that a 25% tax would be imposed on cars not made in the U.S. next week.
On Wednesday, the administration was still releasing details of the plan that will disrupt the auto industry and its supply chains. What is known?
All non-US-assembled vehicles are subject to a 25% duty
Trump will add a 25% tariff to previous duties on imported finished vehicles, starting April 3 at 12:01 am EDT (0401 GMT). The U.S. base tariff rate on automotive imports is 2.5 percent.
Canada, Mexico, and South Korea, all countries with free-trade agreements, will face the duties. The European Union, Japan, and German and Italian automakers, along with Britain, will also be hit hard.
Experts in trade and automotive say that unilateral tariffs will violate the U.S. - Mexico - Canada Agreement on Trade and the U.S. - South Korea Free Trade Agreement.
DUTIES ARE DELAYED BY 25%
Trump's announcement also states that the 25% tariffs will be applied to imports of major auto parts. These include "engines and parts for engines, transmissions and parts for powertrains, and electrical components." The Federal Register will announce a date for the start of parts duties, which could be up to one month later. But no later than May 3,
The notice will also include the specific tariff codes of components that are subject to duties. These codes were not disclosed in Trump's announcement.
USMCA EXEMPTION PARTIALE
The plan offers a partial exemption of tariffs on vehicles and parts that meet the USMCA rules of origin. However, this is only applicable to the value of the U.S. produced content. A truck made in Mexico that contains 45% U.S. material would still be subject to a 25% tax on the value of 55%.
Auto parts compliant with USMCA rules would be taxed on the non-U.S. component.
It will be difficult to determine these levels of content. USMCA compliant auto parts are duty-free until the Commerce Department and U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency decide on a method to apply tariffs for their non-U.S. contents. The process was not given a deadline.
LEGAL RATIONALE
Trump's new tariffs were based on a national security investigation conducted in 2019 into auto imports during his first term as president under Section 232 of Trade Expansion Act of 1964. Trump used the Cold War trade law in 2018 to impose 25% tariffs for steel and aluminum imports.
The Commerce Department concluded that the increasing market share of imported vehicles was negatively affecting U.S. National Security by eroding U.S. Industrial Base and the ability for domestic automakers develop advanced technologies to be used in military applications.
Trump chose to not impose tariffs at that time, instead opting for trade negotiations with trading partners in order to resolve these concerns.
On Wednesday, he said that the talks had failed and that the USMCA and KORUS revisions had not improved U.S. positions in the automotive trade. Reporting by David Lawder, Andrea Shalal and Lincoln Feast.
(source: Reuters)