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Oil prices drop as economic concerns and supply-demand expectations weigh
The oil prices fell on Thursday, after a strong session the day before. This was due to macroeconomic concerns as well as demand and supply expectations. Brent futures were 37 cents lower, or 0.5% at $70.58 per barrel, at 10:25 am EDT (1425 GMT), and U.S. West Texas intermediate crude futures dropped 39 cents or 0.6% to $67.29 per barrel. Both benchmarks rallied about 2% on Wednesday after U.S. government data showed tighter-than-expected oil and fuel inventories. Analysts had predicted a 1.9 million barrel decline in gasoline stocks, but the actual drop was 5.7 million. Distillate stocks were also lower than expected, despite gains for crude oil. Hiroyuki Kikakawa, Nissan Securities Investment's chief strategist, said that declining U.S. gas inventories increased expectations for an increase in seasonal demand this spring. However, concerns over the global impact of tariffs wars also weighed on markets. He added that "with strong and weak factors moving simultaneously, it is difficult for the markets to lean decisively one way or another." U.S. Donald Trump warned on Wednesday that he would escalate a trade war by imposing further tariffs on European Union products, while major U.S. trade partners announced they would retaliate against trade barriers already put in place by the U.S. Trump's tariffs have rattled investor, consumer and business confidence, and along with drastic government spending cuts has threatened the stability of the labour market and raised U.S. fears about recession. The U.S. Labor Department reported on Thursday that the number Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits dropped last week. Citi analysts say that with the U.S. President's commitment to cheaper oil in the second half 2025, they expect Brent at $60 per barrel. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said Thursday that global oil supply may exceed demand by 600,000 barrels a day this year. It also revised down its demand growth projection for 2025. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reported on Wednesday that Kazakhstan was the driving force behind a significant increase in crude production in February by the wider OPEC+. This highlights a challenge facing the producer group to enforce adherence to output targets while it plans to unwind its production cuts. JP Morgan analysts said that U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) data showed "passenger volume for March has decreased by 5% over the past year, following stagnant traffic during February". Recent strong global demand numbers have limited the overall market's weakness. The analysts at JP Morgan added, "Global oil demand was 102.2 million barrels a day on March 11. This is an increase of 1.7 million barrels a day over the previous year and exceeds our projection for the month. Reporting by Trixie Yap, Yuka Obayashi and Paul Carsten from London. Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Kirsten Donovan)
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Colombia's ISA CEO says that up to $33 billion could be invested in Colombia by 2040.
The chief executive of Colombian conglomerate ISA said that the company expects to invest between 28.4 billion dollars and 33 billion dollars through 2040. According to CEO Jorge Carrillo, the majority of the projected investment will go towards power transmission projects. Around a quarter is destined for new electricity projects. Carrillo said that ISA would also divest its infrastructure in telecommunications, services and other areas. "In the transmission industry, we will stay where we are, and expand into other countries in Latin America. We'll also look at new solutions, such as energy storage. Carrillo said that besides being in the area, they would also like to expand into the U.S. ISA, a company with operations in Colombia and Central America as well as Brazil, Chile, Peru and Bolivia, has invested 4.8 trillion Pesos (1,17 billion dollars) by 2024. Carrillo stated that the investments are aimed at more than doubling the company's EBITDA, which was 9.7 trillion pesos in 2017. In 2024, the company's net income rose by 14% to 2.8 trillion Pesos (US$678.5 million). Conglomerate will recommend that shareholders receive a 50% dividend, or 1,265 pesos for each share.
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LME Tin Jumps After Alphamin Temporarily Stops Operations at Bisie Mine in Congo
Alphamin Resources announced that it will temporarily stop operations at its Bisie Tin Mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo because of unrest in North Kivu Province. The London Metal Exchange's (LME) soldering metal prices were up 3.3% to $34,530 per metric ton by 1401 GMT, after reaching $34,815 per ton - the highest price since July. Alphamin produced over 17,000 tons last year of the metal that is used in semiconductors. This represents more than 4% global total supplies, estimated to be around 380,000 tonnes. Alphamin stated in a press release that "this decision was taken after insurgent militants groups had recently advanced westward toward the mines' location in DRC." The mine is being evacuated of all operational personnel. Only essential personnel will remain to care for, maintain and secure the property. In a note released this week, analysts at Macquarie estimated that the global tin industry was already on track to experience a shortage of 13,000 tonnes this year. (Reporting and editing by Tomaszjanowski and Elaine Hardcastle; Pratima Dasai)
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India's central bank chief calls for a common pool of climate-focused project financing
Sanjay Malhotra, India's chief of the central bank, said that banks and nonbank finance companies should set up a pool of bankable climate-related projects. Malhotra, speaking at an RBI event in Delhi said that the lack of climate-related projects with high repayment probabilities is one of the biggest obstacles to having enough financing. "The creation of a pool of bankable projects would have multiple benefits for the ecosystem as a whole." He said that regulated entities with experience in such projects could contribute to the pool. The RBI had previously identified climate change as an area of concern for financial institutions. As part of its efforts, it released last year a draft disclosure framework on climate-related risks. The RBI released a paper in July 2022 on strategies for addressing climate-related financial risk. In 2023, they estimated that India would spend approximately 85.6 trillion rupees (about $1.05 trillion) to adapt industries to meet climate standards by 2030. Malhotra stated on Thursday that "the impact of climate-change risks is not only limited to the financial sector but also extends to real economy." Sethuraman NR, Vijay Kishore (Editing)
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U.S. weather forecaster expects neutral weather to persist through the summer
A U.S. weather forecaster stated on Thursday that La Nina conditions have weakened and that a neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation pattern (ENSO) will develop in April. This neutral pattern is expected last through the summer months of the Northern Hemisphere. Why it's important La Nina is an occurrence that is part of a larger El Nino Southern Oscillation cycle (ENSO), which involves water temperatures in central and eastern Pacific Ocean. ENSO neutral is when the water temperature stays near average and the crop yields are more stable. CONTEXT This week was a busy one for the earliest part of this week. Japan's weather bureau Conditions similar to La Nina are beginning to weaken. Bureau added that they estimate a 60% probability of normal weather patterns to continue into the summer in Northern Hemisphere. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center's monthly forecast stated that the forecast team agrees and predicts ENSO neutrality... with 62% chances in June-August of 2025... and greater than 50% in July-September. KEY QUOTES "La Nina has ended for the moment, we are now officially in neutral status, and the sea surface anomalies are zero in central Pacific. "There will be dryness for the next few months in the southern and central Plains, which will affect winter wheat growth," Donald Keeney said, senior agricultural forecaster at Maxar. "We also anticipate some dryness in central Brazil between May and June. This will put a strain on safrinha. Keeney said that there will be a continuation of drier weather in eastern Europe, Ukraine and western Russia until June. This will affect both the early growth and winter wheat, as well as corn and sunflowers.
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Tigray officials warn that Ethiopia and Eritrea are on the path to war
Officials in an Ethiopian region at a centre of tensions warned that Ethiopia and Eritrea, long-time enemies, could be heading towards war. This would risk another humanitarian catastrophe in the Horn of Africa. Analysts said that direct clashes between the two largest African armies could be the death blow to a historic rapprochement, for which Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Abiy Ahmed was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for in 2019. It may also attract other regional powers. This would likely cause another crisis in the region, where cuts in aid have made it difficult to help millions of people affected by conflicts in Sudan and Ethiopia. The Africa Report, an African-focused magazine, published a Monday article by General Tsadkan Ghretensae. He is a vice-president in the interim government in Ethiopia's Tigray Region. The civil war between Ethiopia's central Government and the Tigray Liberation Front (TPLF), which will take place in Tigray from 2020-2022, has killed thousands. Fears of a renewed conflict are related to the TPLF splitting last year, with one faction administering Tigray under the blessings of Ethiopia's Federal Government and another opposing it. The dissident group, who Tsadkan claimed was seeking an alliance with Eritrea on Tuesday, took control of Adigrat, a northern town. Getachew Reda is the interim head of Tigray. He has asked for the support of the government against the dissidents who deny any ties with Eritrea. Getachew said at a press conference on Monday that there was a clear animosity between Ethiopia and Eritrea. "What worries me is the possibility that the Tigray may become once again victims of a conflict they do not believe in." "DRY TINDER WAITING TO MATCH" The federal government of Ethiopia has not made any comments on the tensions. Eritrea’s Information Minister dismissed Tsadkan’s warnings as “war-mongering schizophrenia”. Human Rights Concern-Eritrea, a UK-based organisation, claims that Eritrea has ordered a national military mobilization since mid-February. Two diplomatic sources, and two Tigrayan official, who asked not to be identified due to the sensitive nature of the situation, said that Ethiopia sent troops to the Eritrean frontier this month. Could not independently verify this development. The Eritrean government and Ethiopian government spokespersons did not respond when asked for comments. Former U.S. and EU ambassadors in the region Payton Knopf, and Alexander Rondos say that the prospect of a new conflict is real. In an article published by the U.S. magazine Foreign Policy, they said: "The deterioration in the political and security conditions in Tigray are dry tinder just waiting for a spark." The relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea has been fraught for a long time. After a 30-year struggle for independence, Eritrea separated from Ethiopia in September 1993. After a 30-year struggle for independence, the neighbours fought a border war from 1998 to 2000. The two countries remained at war informally until 2018, when Abiy, the Eritrean president Isaias Afwerki and other leaders agreed to normalise relations. Eritrean forces even supported Ethiopian federal troops against TPLF rebels in the Tigray Civil War. The relationship was once again strained when Eritrea was excluded from the subsequent peace talks. Eritrean officials are angry at Abiy's repeated declarations since 2023, that Ethiopia, a landlocked country, has the right to access the sea. Some analysts interpret these comments as a threat of military action, against Eritrea which is located on Red Sea. In October last year, Eritrea signed a security agreement with Egypt and Somalia, which was widely viewed as an attempt to counter Ethiopia's expansionist intentions.
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India will deliver US summons for alleged bribery to Adani
According to a letter obtained by The Hindu, the Indian government asked a court in its jurisdiction to serve a summons from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on billionaire Gautam. Adani for alleged securities fraud and $265 million bribery. Indian lawyers stated that the summons was issued in accordance with the Hague Service Convention, which does not permit the service of legal documents directly on defendants in India. Adani or his legal representative would be required to appear before the court in the United States. Adani Group denied the allegations and called them "baseless". They also promised to pursue "all legal remedies possible". The letter dated 25 February shows that the Indian federal ministry of justice has asked the district court in Ahmedabad (Gujarat), Adani's state of residence, to serve the summons on him. The summons appears to be for an appearance at a New York court. "If service is done through the Indian court the respondents will be required to appear", said Arshdeep Khurana, an Indian criminal lawyer. Adani and India’s law ministry didn't immediately respond to comments. Another lawyer stated that the summons did not indicate an extradition risk to the businessman who is in charge of a vast conglomerate, ranging from airport construction and media. "Extradition procedures only enter the picture if a U.S. Court issues warrants of Arrest," said Malak Bhatt. Reports on February 18 stated that the SEC is seeking assistance from India in serving its complaint against Gautam Adani and Sagar Adani. Could not determine whether the summons issued against Adani's niece has been processed. Last month, India's Narendra Modi said that he had not discussed the Adani case during his Washington visit with U.S. president Donald Trump. (Reporting and editing by Sarita Chaturvedi and Arpan Chaganti; Kirby Donovan, Kirby Donovan).
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As UK litigation closes, victims demand justice for deadly Brazilian dam collapse
On Thursday, as the London lawsuit that they filed to seek justice for their children came to a close, mothers of children killed in Brazil's worst environmental catastrophe - 2015 Mariana Dam collapse - demanded their loved ones be given justice. The Mariana Dam collapsed in southeast Brazil, killing 19 people and releasing a toxic sludge that flooded forests, polluted the Doce River, and left thousands of people homeless. The dam was owned Samarco. It is a joint-venture between Vale, Anglo-Australian BHP and Vale, the largest miner in the world by market value. Gelvana Silva (37), said in front of London's High Court: "It is the day I lost my son." She lost her son Thiago, aged seven years old, in the flood. In a suit worth up to 46.63 billion pounds, BHP is being sued by more than 600,000 Brazilians and local governments, as well as around 2,000 companies. The case, which is one of the biggest in English legal history began in October. It ends with Thursday's closing submissions. Tom Goodhead of Pogust Goodhead who represents the claimants expects to receive a decision by summer. Pamela Fernandes lost her five-year old daughter Manu. "The memories of Manu will always be with me... It's very hard." Fernandes wore the same T-shirt as Silva, which featured a picture of her child. She said: "I seek justice for my peace and that of my daughter." 'ACCOUNTABILITY' BHP claims that the London lawsuit is a duplicate of legal proceedings, reparation and repair programs in Brazil and it should be dismissed. BHP also claims that nearly $8 billion in compensation has been paid out to the affected parties through the Renova Foundation. Around $1.7 billion of this amount went to claimants in the English case. BHP claims it didn't own or operate the tailings dam that held mining waste. BHP said that a Brazilian subsidiary owned 50% of Samarco which was operated independently. The miner said that it did not know the stability of the dam was compromised prior to its collapse. Goodhead, however, has stated that the Brazilian government did not sign a deal for compensation with BHP and Vale. Goodhead stated on Thursday that the trial is about accountability. Silva said: "If the company was convicted, that would be our biggest victory... It would have been well worth the ten-year wait."
Copper falls from a five-month high amid concerns over a trade war
The copper price fell on Thursday, after reaching a five-month high. Worries about the global economy overshadowed U.S. Tariffs' impact on metals prices.
The price of three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange was down by 0.2% to $9,755 per metric tonne at 1045 GMT, after reaching its highest level since October 11, at $9.811.
U.S. Comex Copper Futures dropped 0.1% to $4.85 a lb.
Metals prices have risen due to the campaign of U.S. president Donald Trump to impose tariffs on countries to boost U.S. manufacturing. LME copper prices have risen by 11% in 2025.
The U.S. 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum products went into effect on Wednesday. Trump also ordered an investigation to determine if there are any new tariffs for copper.
Prices have been rising, but not for the right reasons. "It's not that demand is good, but because there's an ongoing adjustment on the metal markets," said Tom Price.
He added that "people who buy copper, aluminum, and steel have no other choice but to pay for it in the short-term, but over time, they reduce their consumption or simply defer consumption."
There's a great deal of confusion on the market about what type of risk they are managing.
The global share market fell on Thursday amid fears that a escalating tariff war would slow down the growth of the world economy after Trump threatened to impose further tariffs on European Union products.
LME zinc rose 0.4% to $2.936 per ton, after reaching a seven-week peak on Wednesday, following Nyrstar's announcement of 25% production cuts in Australia at its Hobart Zinc operations from April.
Other metals include LME aluminium, which fell by 0.8% to 2,680 dollars a ton. Nickel fell 1.3% to 16,425, lead dropped 0.3% to $2,000, and tin rose 0.1% to 33,445. (Reporting and editing by Shounak dasgupta; Eric Onstad)
(source: Reuters)