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The US-Ukrainian Draft Minerals Deal: Key Provisions
Here are the key details from a draft framework agreement on minerals between Ukraine and United States. A copy of this document, dated February 25, has been reviewed. RECONSTRUCTION FUND The document's title is "BILATERAL AGREEEMENT ESTABLISHING THE TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF A RECONSTRUCTION FUND". - Both countries will create a Reconstruction Investment Fund for the purpose of collecting and reinvesting revenues generated by Ukrainian resources. The fund will be managed by representatives from both countries. After the conclusion of the current agreement, a subsequent agreement regarding the fund will "be promptly negotiated". - Ukraine will contribute 50% of the revenues from the development in future of natural resources owned by the Ukrainian state. - The agreement does not specify the assets, but says that they will be specified in a subsequent agreement which will go before parliament for a vote. - Assets are defined as "minerals, hydrocarbons (oil, gas, etc.) and other materials that can be extracted, as well as other infrastructure related to natural resources assets, such as terminals for liquefied gas and port infrastructure." "For the sake of clarity, these future sources of revenue do not include current sources of revenue which are already included in the general budget of Ukraine." - The fund aims to invest in Ukrainian project and attract investments in public and privatized assets, including natural resources and infrastructure, ports, and state-owned companies. Contributions will be reinvested in Ukraine for "the safety, the security and the prosperity of Ukraine". SECURITY GUARANTEES The U.S. Government will support Ukraine in its efforts to secure the security guarantees necessary to achieve a lasting peace. The U.S. government has not mentioned any concrete security guarantees that Kyiv is hoping to obtain. "The Government of United States of America is supporting Ukraine's efforts in obtaining the security guarantees necessary to establish a lasting peace." The United States has committed to a long-term commitment of financial support for the development and growth of an "economically prosperous Ukraine". - The agreement includes "concrete measures to establish lasting peace and to strengthen economic resilience." According to the draft, both U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent and Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrii Sybiha will sign the agreement. (Reporting and editing by PhilippaFletcher; YuliiaDysa, Tom Balmforth)
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NRG Energy exceeds profit expectations for the fourth quarter on increased demand for electricity
NRG Energy, a leading energy company, beat Wall Street's expectations for the fourth quarter adjusted profit on Tuesday, thanks to a growing demand for electricity and lower fuel prices. It also announced its plans to serve more data centers over the next few years. The shares of the company increased by over 11% during morning trading. Utility companies benefit from the rising electricity consumption, mostly from the energy-guzzling, data-intensive data centers that are needed to scale Big Tech’s artificial intelligence technologies (AI). This has led NRG and its peers to increase their spending plans by tens or hundreds of millions of dollars. Robert Gaudette is the president of NRG’s Business and Wholesale operations. He said, "Growing electricity demand due to GenAI, and the construction of data centers, means that we need to create new, innovative partnerships in order to increase America's dispatchable generator quickly." In the first phase, the company signed Letters of Intent with PowLan, a data center developer, and Menlo Equities. The power targets were 500 Megawatts (MW). The work is expected to begin in 2026. Analysts said that the deals could scale up to as much as 6.5 gigawatts, which bodes well for the firm. NRG signed a similar agreement with GE Vernova, a maker of power equipment, and TIC, whose subsidiary is Kiewit, on Wednesday to develop new natural gas projects up to 5.4 GW. NRG's quarterly fuel costs decreased marginally compared to a year earlier, falling from $4.89 billion to $4.89. The company's Texas business unit, which is the biggest contributor to its profit, saw quarterly adjusted core earnings fall 14.4% from a year earlier to $327 millions, due to warmer weather. The gains were offset by the East and West segments. The Houston-based utility beat analysts' expectations by posting an adjusted profit per share of $1.56 in the fourth quarter. (Reporting and editing by Sahal Muhammad in Bengaluru, with Pooja Menon reporting from Bengaluru)
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Ukraine bonds rise on preliminary US critical mineral deal
Ukraine's foreign bonds rose on Wednesday, after Kyiv announced it had reached a "preliminary deal" on vital mineral resources. Washington was seen as central in its efforts to win the support of President Donald Trump's Administration. Tradeweb data revealed that the bonds denominated in dollars gained up to 1.4 cents per dollar. The biggest gainer was the 2029 maturity which was bid at 72.35cents. The agreement stipulates that Ukraine will pay the United States revenue from its mineral resources. It comes ahead of a Friday trip to Washington expected by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Trump wants to end Russia's conflict in Ukraine quickly. U.S. and Russian talks, which have excluded Kyiv so far, will continue on Thursday. Trump has framed the deal as repayment for the billions of dollars Kyiv received during the war. Zelenskiy asked for security guarantees as a trade-off for the minerals rights. However, it's unclear if his demands were met. The new agreement appears to be less burdensome for Ukraine than its initial proposal, said Piotr Kalisz of Citi. He added that it did not offer any security guarantees but authorities in Kyiv believed a greater presence of U.S. interest in the country could act as a stabilizing force. Kalisz said that it appeared a similar deal could help ease diplomatic tensions between Ukraine & the U.S. In recent days, the bonds issued by Ukraine as part of the August 2008 restructuring agreement have experienced a roller coaster ride. After Trump falsely referred to Zelenskiy as an unpopular "dictator", who had to make a quick deal with the government or risk losing his country, the debt dropped sharply. The Ukrainian leader claimed that the U.S. President was in a "disinformation-filled bubble". Bonds have recovered some of their losses over the past few days, and some maturities are now close to reaching record highs set in mid-February. Reporting by Karin Strohecker, Editing by Peter Graff & Bill Berkrot
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European shares reach record highs as US dollar increases amid tax cuts plans
The European stock market hit a new record on Wednesday thanks to a draft U.S.Ukraine agreement on vital minerals, and strong corporate earnings. The U.S. Dollar rose as well after House Republicans approved President Donald Trump's tax-cut plans. U.S. Copper Prices Surge after Trump Ordered a Probe into copper imports. Wall Street was ahead of the hotly anticipated earnings from AI chipmaker Nvidia. The Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives late on Tuesday narrowly passed Trump's $4.5 trillion tax-cut plan, sending the budget resolution to the Senate, where Republicans are expected to take it up. Lars Skovgaard is senior investment strategist for Danske Bank. Tax cuts and less regulation are expected. It is something I expect to happen, and it would be good for the markets if it did. The mood also improved following reports that the U.S.A. and Ukraine had agreed to terms for a draft mineral deal. The STOXX 600 index, which covers the entire continent, reached a record high. Blue-chip indices in Frankfurt and Paris, as well as London, also rose. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. Wall Street saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise 211.70, or 0.49% to 43,834.33, S&P 500 gain 41.19, or 0.70% to 5,996.73 while the Nasdaq Composite gained 176.96, or 0.94% to 19,204.88. Emerging Market Stocks rose by 13.04 points or 1.16%. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.4 basis points, to 4.302, as investors anticipated more debt issuance in the future. The yield on the two-year bond, which is sensitive for changes in Federal Reserve expectations of interest rates, increased 2.7 basis points, to 4.123% In the previous session, yields fell to their lowest level in several months as traders increased bets on more Fed rate reductions this year due to growing concerns about the outlook for the largest economy in the world. The latest survey data released on Tuesday shows that U.S. consumers' confidence dropped at the fastest pace in three-and-a half years in February. This is the latest of a series of surveys which indicate that both businesses and consumers are becoming more concerned about the policies of the Trump administration. Fed funds futures indicate that 55 bps will be priced in for easing by the end of the year, which translates to at least two quarter point cuts. This is up from 40 bps about a week earlier. Meanwhile, U.S. copper prices The price of the products rose 3.5% due to rising expectations about Trump's tariffs, and a major power outage that hit a major producer in Chile. The dollar index (which measures the currency in comparison to six other majors) was up by 0.2%. The euro fell 0.18% to $1.0494. Oil prices in commodities remained near their two-month lows. Brent crude futures fell 0.08% to $72.96 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.02% to $69.98. Spot gold dropped 0.26% in the previous session after dropping by 0.16%. Nvidia, the company that is the poster child for artificial intelligence, will report its earnings on Wednesday. This could provide clarity about demand and justify sector valuations. Due to the slow returns and breakthroughs made by China's DeepSeek, investor scepticism about the billions of dollars that U.S. technology firms have invested in AI infrastructure has increased. Jacob Falkencrone, global head of Saxo’s investment strategy, said that any signs of weakness within Nvidia’s report would have a significant impact on investor sentiment toward AI stocks in general. This week, some of Europe's top AI stocks fell after an analyst report flagged that Microsoft could slow down on data center leasing. The note lowered sentiment in the industry.
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US Targets Chinese, Hong Kong firms over alleged role of Iranian drone procurement
As part of the Trump administration's "maximum-pressure" campaign against Tehran, the United States on Wednesday imposed sanctions on six entities in Hong Kong and China that they accused of involvement in an Iranian drone acquisition network. The U.S. Treasury Department announced that entities involved in the procurement of components for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on behalf of a firm under U.S. sanction, Pishtazan Kavosh Gostar Boshra and its subsidiary Narin Sepehr Mobin Isatis were also key suppliers to Iran's UAVs and ballistic missile program. We were unable to reach PKGB and NSMI immediately for comment. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Iran continues to seek new ways to obtain the key components needed to boost its UAV weapons programs through new front companies or third-country suppliers. Treasury remains committed to disrupting schemes that allow Iran to send deadly weapons to terrorist proxy groups and other destabilizing agents abroad. The embassy of China in Washington and the Iranian mission at the United Nations headquarters in New York did not respond immediately to comments. The United States imposed new sanctions on Iran's oil sector, which is the main source of revenue for the Islamic Republic. The announcements are made as U.S. president Donald Trump seeks a zero crude exports from Iran to prevent it obtaining a nuke weapon. They also build on the layers sanctions already imposed by the Biden administration and his government. Trump, earlier this month, had restored his campaign of "maximum press" against Iran. This includes efforts to drive down the country's exports of oil to zero. Washington has reimposed its tough policy towards Iran which was used throughout Trump's initial term. The top Iranian diplomat stated on Tuesday that Iran will not give in to the pressure and sanctions of Washington. The action on Wednesday freezes all U.S. assets and prevents Americans from doing business with those who are targeted. (Reporting and editing by PhilippaFletcher; Michael Martina, additional reporting; Daphne Psaledakis).
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Andy Home: Trump's tariff threats presage turbulent times for Dr Copper
Doctor Copper has been trying since late January to estimate the impact of U.S. tariffs on imports, ever since President Donald Trump included copper in his list of tariffs along with steel and aluminum. After the launch of a Section 232 investigation - the same national security tool that paved Trump's way to steel and aluminum tariffs during his first term, and extended them in Trump’s current term - the threat is set to become a reality. Tariff trade has played out so far in the arbitrage of the U.S. Copper price on CME and international copper prices traded on London Metal Exchange. This may change, as financial arbitrage causes a realignment in flows on the physical market. A raid on LME's inventory indicates that it has already happened. Mind the Widening Gap The LME copper product is an international contract that has delivery locations on all three continents. However, the CME contract is a U.S.-cleared product with only domestic delivery points. Arbitrage between these two contracts is the ideal forum to trade the potential U.S. tariffs on imports. When Trump mentioned aluminium, steel and copper as possible targets for tariffs in the same breath, the CME premium over London shot up to more than $1000 per metric ton. The CME premium was based on the fact that LME copper traded just above $9,000 per tonne, implying a tariff of 10% on imports. Transatlantic gap was steadily closing in absence of further comments by the Trump administration prior to Tuesday's shocking announcement that U.S. Import dependency would be subject of a National Security Investigation. The U.S. premium for the CME's May contract has risen again from $500 to more than $800 per ton in the past 24 hours. It is clear that the U.S. premium could be much higher if copper were to be subjected to the same tariff rate of 25% as steel and aluminum from next month. LME STOCKS RAID The LME price of three-month copper has remained stable at $9,500 per tonne, despite the CME price having risen sharply. Early-year rallies have stalled because of concerns over how Trump's tariff policy, which is broader, will impact on global trade and growth. This is especially true in China, as it's the largest copper purchaser. There's a lot of chaos beneath the calm surface, in the form time-spread instability. The benchmark spread between three-months cash and the benchmark cash On February 14, the price of the commodity flipped from a comfortable contagious of more than $100 per ton, to a backwardation at $250 per ton. It is now trading near zero. The Valentine's Day massacre was a clearing-out of liquidity, but the tighter tone that followed is due to a clearance-out of physical stock held in LME Warehouses. In preparation for the physical loading out, almost 100,000 tons of copper stored at LME have been cancelled in the last four working days. The total on-warrant stocks of copper have fallen from 258,000 tons to 161,225 tonnes in just one week. COMPLEX ARBITRAGE It makes sense to send as much copper to the United States as possible, to take advantage of the metal being in place prior to tariffs. The physical arbitrage trade is more complex than financial arbitrage. This was evident when the CME suffered a squeeze in May last year. The CME list of brands that can be delivered is largely restricted to Canadian, domestic and South American producers. This reflects the refined import mix of copper in the United States. LME stocks are largely made up of Chinese and Russian brands. These two brands together accounted 74% of the total stocks on warrant at the end January. The United States banned imports of Russian metal about a year ago. Imports from China already face a 10% blanket duty. Instead of LME-stored steel being shipped directly to the United States it is likely that South American shipments would be rerouted, and LME steel used to fill in the supply gaps. As happened last year it is possible that Chinese producers deliver metal to LME storage in Asia due to a high U.S. Premium causing a global roundabout of metal. Coming Home The U.S. Secretary for Commerce Howard Lutnick is given 270 days to complete the Section 232 Report on Copper. However, it appears that this will be a fast-tracked process. It is also clear that the results will be positive, as Lutnick accused international actors of "attacking [our] domestic production." Lutnick told the press at a briefing on Tuesday that "it's time to bring copper home." Tariffs alone are unlikely to reverse the trend of copper processing, where ever more capacity has migrated to China. He's correct, there is probably a large amount of copper headed to the U.S. It all depends on where the copper comes from, and how much turmoil is created by transporting it to the U.S. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
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Trump's trade threats and tariffs
Donald Trump has been in office since January 20. The United States has issued numerous tariff threats. These can be broad - such as a tariff on all imported goods from abroad - or targeted at certain sectors, countries, or regions to try and get them to comply with his demands. Trump's threats are constantly changing, and other nations and businessmen are unsure of what to expect next. Here's a summary of Trump’s threats and actions in relation to trade. BROAD TARIFFS Trump's vision is based on a gradual roll-out of tariffs that will apply to all U.S. imported goods. Trump's economics team was tasked earlier this month with developing plans to impose reciprocal tariffs against every country that taxes U.S. imported goods, as well as counteracting non-tariff barriers, such vehicle safety regulations that exclude U.S. automobiles and value added taxes that increase the cost of their products. In recent decades, tariffs have been reduced to a small fraction of U.S. taxes. Economists claim that Trump's policies are inflationary, as businesses who import goods and pay tariffs will pass on the costs to consumers. Global trading partners may impose counter-tariffs on U.S. agricultural and energy exports. This could lead to a global trade war that would create uncertainty for investors and businesses. Specific COUNTRIES Trump's tariff proposals are aimed at several key trading partners. MEXICO AND CANADA : Mexico was the U.S.'s largest trading partner in 2024, and Canada ranked second. Trump announced that he would impose tariffs on imports coming from Mexico and Canada, which will go into effect February 4, as a retaliation against migration and the fentanyl trade. The proposed tariffs included 25% on the majority of goods imported from Mexico and Canada with a 10% tariff for energy imports. Trump suspended the tariffs until March 4 in order to negotiate with these two countries. Trump said Monday that tariffs against Canadian and Mexican imports were "on schedule and on time" despite efforts made by both countries to improve border security and stop the flow of drugs into the U.S. before a deadline of March 4. Canada exports mainly crude oil, other energy products and cars and auto parts as part the North American automotive manufacturing chain. Mexico exports a variety of goods to the U.S., including industrial and automotive products. CHINA: Trump imposed a 10% additional tariff on all Chinese imports to the U.S. which went into effect on 4 February after repeatedly warning Beijing that it wasn't doing enough in order to stop the flow of illegal drugs into the United States. Trump has said that the EU, and other countries, have alarming trade surpluses. He said that the products of the other countries will be subject to tariffs, or he would demand that they purchase more oil and natural gas from the U.S. despite the fact the U.S.'s gas export capacity has reached its limit. In a statement released on 14 February, the European Commission stated that the "reciprocal trade policy" was a step backwards. RUSSIA: Trump threatened to hit Russia and "other participating countries" with tariffs, taxes and sanctions if an agreement to end the conflict in Ukraine was not reached soon. INDIA/BRICS NATIONS : Indian Prime Minister Narendra modi met with Trump mid-February in Washington and offered to discuss easing tariffs and buying more U.S. gas, oil and combat aircraft. He also discussed possible concessions. India is the largest trading partner of the United States and imposes a high tariff on U.S. products. Trump threatened to impose tariffs on the BRICS nations if they didn't agree not to create a new currency. COLOMBIA - Trump announced that he would impose 25% tariffs on Colombian products after the country refused flights with migrants who were to be deported by the U.S. The two sides reached an agreement. PRODUCTS METALS: Trump announced on February 9 that he would impose tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum used by automakers and aerospace companies as well as in construction and infrastructure. According to World Bank statistics, the U.S. imports more aluminum than any other country in the world. According to the International Trade Administration, it has been running a steel trade deficit for over a decade. The International Trade Administration reports that it is the world's second-largest steel importer, with over half of its volumes coming from Canada. Trump ordered on Tuesday a new investigation into the possibility of new tariffs on imports of copper to rebuild U.S. manufacturing of this metal, which is critical for electric vehicles, military equipment, semiconductors, and a variety of consumer goods. Just over half of the refined petroleum products in the U.S. are produced domestically Copper It consumes every year. SEMICONDUCTORS : Trump stated that tariffs would start at "25%" or more, and increase substantially over a period of one year. However, he did not specify when they will be implemented. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, the world's biggest contract chipmaker, produces semiconductors for Nvidia and Apple, among other U.S. customers, and 70% of its revenues in 2024 will come from North American clients. PHARMACEUTICALS : Imposing tariffs of 25% or more on pharmaceuticals imported could be a burden on Japan. This is the home to major drugmakers like Takeda Astellas Daiichi Sankyo Eisai and Takeda. India's economy would also be affected, as the U.S. is the largest market for most generic drugmakers in the country. Exports to that country account for 31% of all industry exports. Trump announced that levies for automobiles could be implemented as early as April 2. For example, the European Union collects a duty of 10% on imported vehicles, which is four times higher than the 2.5% U.S. tariff rate for passenger cars. The U.S. charges a 25% duty on pickup trucks imported from other countries than Mexico and Canada. Trump also floated the idea that tariffs of up to 100% would be imposed on other vehicles including EVs. In 2024, the automobile industry will account for more than $200 billion in imports from Canada and Mexico. (Reporting and editing by Maju Sam, Lincoln Feast, Seher Dareen and Sriraj Kalluvila in Bengaluru, and Margueritachoy, Anmol Choubey and Anmol Anil in Bengaluru)
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Reactions to EU plan to reduce red tape and assist struggling industries
The European Commission published on Wednesday a three-pronged strategy to revive the European industries that are in trouble. This includes proposals to reduce green reporting requirements for companies, while also supporting clean industrial projects. It also includes a plan to lower energy prices. Industry groups have welcomed plans to encourage investment in Europe. Campaigners and investors have criticized the rescinding of Europe's sustainability standards, which are world-leading. * REACTIONS TO EU OMNIBUS TO CUT SUSTAINABILITY RESEARCH RULES The Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change The European Commission's proposal to roll back the tax will undermine investment and Europe's competitiveness in the long term. Reduced scope of CSRD would ultimately limit investors' access to credible and useful data on transition plans, and companies' ability secure financing for their transition. Investors will be forced to continue relying on estimates and direct engagements with investors, which increases costs. INDUSTRY GROUP BUSINESSEUROPE HEAD MARKUS BEYRER By reducing unnecessary reporting requirements and regulatory burdens the first Omnibus allows companies to contribute more efficiently to the EU sustainability goals while preserving the competitiveness of the EU economy. ALBAN GROSDIDIER, CAMPAIGNER FOR FRIENDS of the Earth The Commission has introduced a massive package of deregulation. It is destroying human rights protections as well as environmental and climatic action." Reactions to the EU Clean Industrial Deal: PAUL VOSS HEAD OF THE INDUSTRY GROUP EUROPEAN ALUMINAUM "While this is just a beginning, it is fair to acknowledge and applaud the Commission's sincere declaration of its political commitment to bringing European industry back to its feet. The hard part is now to sort out the details. DUTCH INDUSTRIAL GROUP VNO - NCW The Commission has set out clear deadlines for lower energy costs, the development and growth of the market for sustainable products and the circular economy. SWISS ENGINEERING GROUP AB "We were looking for three things, namely: to accelerate electrification and to leverage energy efficiency in order to decarbonize. We also wanted more investment incentives. And we are pleased that the European Clean Industrial Deal has committed to addressing these priorities. The Decarbonization Investment Bank represents a positive step in redirecting funds towards electrification and industrial technologies that reduce carbon emissions. AXEL EGGERT DIRECTOR OF EUROPEAN STAIN ASSOCIATION "Immediate action is needed to protect European steelmaking. This includes decisive measures in trade, CBAM, and energy prices. The Commission has identified the correct challenges, but does not provide concrete policy solutions to reverse the trend. JEFFERIES: The EU plan to mobilize 100 billion Euros to support the decarbonisation of industries: It is unclear how much of the EUR100bn pool represents new funding, as opposed to existing funds that have been repurposed. * REACTIONS to the EU AFFORDABLE Energy Plan: Analysts for Energy Aspects: The European Commission will advise member states to reduce taxation levels on electricity and eliminate levies. It is only a recommendation. We do not believe that CID will provide any significant relief for the high price of electricity in the short term. We believe that the biggest impact on the decarbonisation of the European energy sector could be a push for more member states adopting streamlined permit procedures. CHRIS ROSSLOWE SENIOR ANATOMIST AT THINK-TANK MEMBER The proposed measures strike a good compromise between providing short-term relief to consumers and fixing structural problems with Europe's dependence on fossil fuels. Positive to see concrete action that will accelerate the low-cost renewables... "Apart from concerns about gas investment support, this plan offers a viable route to lower energy costs." Reporting by Kate Abnett and Julia Payne; Editing by Ingrid Melander
The potential US copper tariffs are seen to be very costly for the domestic industry
Analysts say that the U.S. Industrial sector is the one most likely to suffer from any potential U.S. copper tariffs. They expect costs to rise significantly as the process of reviving the domestic mining and refining would take a long time. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump launched an investigation into possible new tariffs on imports of copper. He said that they would help rebuild U.S. manufacturing.
Analysts said that the U.S. price of the metal, which is used for power, construction, and electric vehicles, has already soared on the U.S. exchange COMEX. A sustained period of high prices could dampen industrial activities, reduce consumption, and force companies into using aluminium.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), nearly half of America's copper requirements are imported. The copper mine production has dropped 11% in the last decade as miners struggled to expand existing mines or develop new projects.
Chile, Canada and Mexico are the largest suppliers.
Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank, a Copenhagen-based bank. He said: "The U.S. will never be able to increase their own production or refining capacities anytime soon. This looks like an own goal."
The premium on COMEX prices over the benchmark international copper price on the London Metal Exchange LME rose to $816 per ton from $580 on Tuesday, but this is still lower than a record high of $1,153 on February 13.
Only two copper smelters are operating in the United States. Asarco, owned by the industrial conglomerate Grupo México, announced in May of last year that it planned to restart its mothballed U.S. copper smelter.
Amy Gower, a Morgan Stanley analyst, wrote in a memo: "But there have been no recent news and there aren’t any other recently abandoned smelters. And constructing a brand new one would require more than two year."
She added that "new copper mines will take much longer as many face challenges with permits." The massive Resolution Copper Mine in Arizona, owned by Rio Tinto and BHP, has been put on hold after Native Americans voiced their opposition. (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao; Eric Onstad)
(source: Reuters)