Latest News

Andy Home: Uranium revival brings it back to the forefront of critical issues

Is Uranium a Critical Mineral?

The U.S. Geological Survey has decided that it is not a critical mineral. It was removed from the list of critical minerals in 2022 because it wasn't a "fuel-mineral".

Donald Trump, the president of the United States, wants you to reconsider.

In one of Trump's "Unleashing America's Energy" directives, the Secretary of Interior is required to instruct the Director of the USGS "to consider updating the survey list of critical mineral including the possibility of including uranium."

Included on the list, domestic uranium project funding and approvals would be expedited.

It is curious that uranium slipped through the legal loophole in the Energy Act of 2020 which states only "non-fuel minerals" can be classified as critical minerals.

Uranium checks off many criticality boxes. Uranium is experiencing a dramatic increase in demand. The global supply is highly concentrated, and the United States imports almost all of its uranium.

These changing dynamics are reflected in the uranium prices. The frothy rally of last year to a 16-year peak of $106 per lb is over. At $71 per lb today, the price of uranium remains higher than it was in any decade following the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan in 2011.

NUCLEAR COMBAT

Fukushima forced many countries to reconsider the role nuclear energy plays in their energy mix, but the threat of climate change has brought nuclear back into the spotlight.

This affirmation was made at the COP28 Summit in December 2023 when more than twenty countries released the "Declaration to Triple Nuclear Power".

The official recognition was that "nuclear energy plays a key role in achieving net-zero global greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2050, and maintaining the 1.5 degree goal within reach."

Trump's administration may not be impressed by such green credentials, but Republicans see nuclear energy as an important component of national defense, which is why it has bipartisan support, even if for different reasons.

The big tech companies are also excited as they search for more and more power to fuel their data centers. Microsoft signed an agreement with Constellation Energy to help revive a unit at the Three Mile Island Nuclear Plant in Pennsylvania in September.

Re-embrace nuclear power is an international trend.

According to the International Energy Agency, the generation from nearly 420 nuclear reactors around the world is set to reach new levels in 2025.

The IEA reported that 63 reactors were currently being built, which is the most since 1990. Over 60 reactors' lifetimes will also be extended.

SHORTAGE OF SUPPLIES

As nuclear power is on the rise, uranium is in high demand. The supply of uranium is not keeping up with the rising demand.

According to the IEA, a decade of low oil prices has had a negative impact on production, especially in the United States. Production fell from nearly five million lb per year in 2014 to only 21,000 lb by 2021.

The global uranium industry is heavily concentrated. According to the World Nuclear Association, Kazakhstan, Canada, and Australia will account for two-thirds or more of the global production in 2022.

One of the factors that triggered the price spike in January 2024 was the warning by Kazatomprom of Kazakhstan, the largest producer of sulphuric acids, that it may not be able to meet its production targets because of a lack of sulphuric.

Political stress and market stress are often combined.

The United States wants to reduce its dependency on Russia in terms of enriched uranium. In 2023, Russian material will account for 27% of enriched uranium supplies to U.S. commercial nuclear reactors.

The Joe Biden Administration banned Russian imports. However, there were waivers until 2027. Russia responded by placing restrictions on shipments into the United States.

Trump's threats to impose tariffs against Canada, the biggest supplier of uranium for the U.S. Market, further complicates the situation.

Going Critical

After a decade of hibernation, the uranium markets are re-energized.

Last year's price surge was driven by a lot speculative frenzy, with institutional investors like Goldman Sachs as well as retail investment vehicles like Sprott Physical Uranium Trust following the rally.

The uranium prices remain historically high. The market has priced in a shortfall of supply relative to the demand from an expanding global fleet nuclear reactors.

Many of these projects use leach technology to help fill the gap.

The difference between a mineral that is critical and one called a "fuel-mineral" which is becoming increasingly critical will determine how quickly they can activate.

The author is a columnist at

(source: Reuters)