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Just Indonesia can assist nickel recuperate from price bust: Andy Home

Nickel ended 2024 trading at fouryear lows, an amazing reversal of fortune for a metal that soared so high in 2022 it practically broke the London Metal Exchange (LME).

There is no mystery to this significant tale of boom and bust.

Indonesia has actually flooded the world with more metal than it can soak up, crushing the price and leaving a path of casualties among the rest of the world's producers.

The market's fortunes this year depend upon whether Jakarta can tame the excesses of its nickel sector and align supply more carefully with need.

There are favorable indications. Indonesia's mining ministry strategies to cut the nickel ore mining quota to 200 million metric loads this year from a formerly prepared 240 million.

The news has actually sparked a modest price revival, LME 3-month nickel rising by 3% because the start of January. Whether it suffices to create a more sustained healing stays to be seen.

OUT OF THE SHADOWS

Indonesia has become the world's dominant nickel manufacturer over the last decade.

The country's mined production blew up from 358,000 loads in 2017 to 2.2 million loads in 2023, according to the World Bureau of Metals Data. Indonesian supply was equivalent to over half of worldwide demand that year.

The Indonesian supply tsunami at first washed through the Class II segment of the nickel market in the form of stainless steel inputs such as nickel pig iron.

That's changed over the last two years after Chinese operators mastered the innovation to convert Indonesia's. fairly low-grade resource into high-purity Class I items. such as sulphate and fine-tuned metal.

The processing revolution has transferred the marketplace surplus. from the Class II shadows to the highly noticeable world of. exchange trading.

STOCKS RISE

The LME has actually noted five Chinese brand names and one Indonesian. brand of refined nickel considering that its 2022 crisis.

The effect is clear to see in increasing LME inventory.

Low LME stocks was among the factors for the rate going. supernova in March 2022. They continued moving through the. initially half of 2023, falling below 40,000 lots for the very first time. considering that 2007.

LME inventory has since risen to 172,206 tons on the back. of Chinese and Indonesian deliveries.

There was no Chinese nickel in the LME storage system until. August 2023. Since the end of December 2024 there were 70,000. lots, representing 47% of on-warrant stocks. The first. Indonesian metal showed up in July last year and amounted to. over 7,000 tons by the close of December.

LME registered stocks are just part of the bigger stocks. photo.

LME off-warrant stocks have actually also grown, while Shanghai. Futures Exchange stocks have increased to a five-year high of 35,327. lots.

Total exchange stock was nearly 230,000 lots at the end. of November 2023, the highest level because 2021.

This is excellent news for both exchanges. The physical liquidity. increase has assisted restore self-confidence in both markets, producing. a healing in trading volumes after activity dropped in the wake. of the 2022 nickel crisis.

It's been less excellent news for anybody in the nickel production. company outside Indonesia and China. Rising stocks have driven. the rate ever lower.

BATTERY DEMAND FALTERS

It's not as if nickel demand has collapsed.

The stainless-steel sector, which still represents the. biggest share of the metal's usage, performed highly in 2024. Global melt-shop production rose by 6.3% year-on-year in the. first half of in 2015, according to industry association. worldstainless.

However nickel's usage in electrical automobile (EV) batteries has. been weaker than expected.

Although worldwide EV sales grew by 25% in 2025, most of the. development originated from China, where automotive business are. progressively shifting to non-nickel battery chemistry such as. lithium-iron-phosphate.

Western car-makers are sticking with nickel in their. batteries but EV sales rose by a fairly modest 9% in North. America and contracted by 3% in Europe in 2015, according to. consultancy Rho Motion.

Furthermore, both Western and Chinese vehicle purchasers are choosing. hybrids over pure battery designs and hybrids require smaller. batteries.

Researchers at Adamas Intelligence price quote that the global. sales-weighted average quantity of nickel deployed per traveler. car battery was 12.6 kg in November 2024, down 16% from. November 2023.

While European EV sales are anticipated to recuperate this year as. tougher emission guidelines start, North American sales deal with the. challenge of Donald Trump rolling back the Biden. administration's EV aid plan.

SUPPLY DISCIPLINE

Indonesia has made obvious of its desire to take advantage of its. nickel supply dominance into pricing dominance.

It now has that power.

The essential concern for the nickel market is how it will use. that power.

The cut to this year's ore quotas suggests that Jakarta. knows the price has actually fallen too far even for a few of its own. producers.

The technique will be tailoring production rates to a. fast-evolving EV battery need dynamic. Without supply. discipline from the world's dominant manufacturer, a continual. nickel cost recovery will remain evasive.

The viewpoints revealed here are those of the author, a. columnist .

(source: Reuters)