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Europe searches for alternatives to Mozal aluminium in the face of its shutdown

Analysts say that a smelter closure in Mozambique will have a negative impact on global aluminum supplies next year. The plant's "core European Union" customers may be forced to look for alternative suppliers.

South32 confirmed Tuesday that it would place the Mozal smelter, which has a capacity of 560,000 metric tons per year, on care and maintenance from mid-March. This was after discussions with Mozambique’s government and utilities failed to produce a new deal.

Trade Data Monitor figures show that the plant exported almost 430,000 tonnes of aluminium to Europe in the first ten months of 2025. This makes Mozambique a top primary metal supplier to the EU, with nearly a fifth of the region's imports.

Ewa Mannthey, a?ING analyst, said via email that "we are expecting a shortfall of about 600,000." ING saw a 200,000 ton deficit on the global aluminum market in 2025, after a half-size deficit.

Manthey said that Europe is likely to fill in the Mozal Gap primarily by increasing imports from Canada, and?the Middle East.

According to estimates by the Brussels-based European Aluminium industry group, Europe's primary aluminium demand is approximately 9 million tonnes per year.

The impending closure of Mozal coincides with a power failure at Century Aluminum's Icelandic smelter, which has reduced output by two thirds. Iceland was the EU's 2nd-largest aluminium supplier in 2018.

Prices have also been pushed higher by the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment mechanism, which will impose a carbon-based tax on aluminum imports starting in January. The amount of Russian metal that can enter the EU from February 26 until December 31 will be reduced to 50,000 tonnes.

At 1602 GMT the benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange traded up 0.5% to around $2,880, which is not far from the three-year-high of $2,920 that was reached on November 3 and December 5.

The European Aluminium Duty-paid Premium, which buyers add to the LME price of physical metal in order to cover taxes, shipping costs and handling, reached a 10-month peak of $340 per ton, at the beginning of December. It was previously at $326.

Ross Strachan is the head of raw materials for aluminium at CRU. He believes that the Mideast Gulf will make up the volume lost if Mozal were to close.

Strachan stated that "there are certain exporters from the region who are more likely to increase their shipments to Europe due the higher premiums." (Reporting and editing by Alexander Smith; Pratima Dasai, Tom Daly)

(source: Reuters)