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Indonesia concludes search for victims after boarding school collapse. 61 dead
Indonesian rescuers finished their search for victims under the rubble in East Java province on Tuesday after recovering more than 60 corpses, according to disaster authorities. Last week, the small town Sidoarjo was engulfed in grief and confusion after the Al Khoziny School collapsed on hundreds of people - mostly teenagers - while they were praying. Most escaped. In a statement the disaster mitigation agency announced that all 61 bodies in the building had been located, along with seven body parts police are trying identify. The search was halted for the worst disaster of the year, which it called. Mohammad Syafii is the chief of the Search and Rescue Agency. After authorities removed the debris, he said, "Operations due the collapsed structure at the Al Khoziny School... are now officially closed." Budi Irawan is the deputy chief of the agency. The rescuers used cranes and excavators to lift huge chunks of concrete. As they dug through the tunnels, rescuers shouted names of those presumed still alive. Al Khoziny, also known as a pesantren in Arabic, is one of over 42,000 schools of this type across the country. Only 50 have building permits, according to the Public Works Ministry. It was impossible to determine if Al Khoziny possessed a permit or contact school authorities. Media reported that Sidoarjo Chief Subandi said last week the school allegedly did not have a permit. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Stanley Widianto)
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Morning bid Europe-Deepening darkness in Paris
Rae Wee gives us a look at what the European and global markets will be like tomorrow. France is once again in a deep political crisis, with five different prime ministers having been in office in just 21 months. This is not good news for investors looking to invest in Paris. The markets will probably face another day of turmoil on Tuesday following the shock resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien lecornu. This came only hours after Lecornu announced his cabinet, making this the shortest-lived French government in modern history. Lecornu has been asked by French President Emmanuel Macron to have last-ditch discussions with other political parties in order to find a way out of this crisis. However, the damage is already done. The French OAT futures fell slightly during the Asian session, after bonds plunged on Monday. Attention will be focused on the Paris CAC 40 when the markets open in the afternoon. BCA Research, a research firm, has said that French bonds are uninvestable. Rating agencies have issued new warnings regarding France's sovereign debt score. France has the highest budget deficit within the Eurozone, almost twice the European Union preferred limit of 3%. Since Macron's reelection in 2020, the nation's finances have been vulnerable and political instability has increased, due to the lack of a majority party or group in parliament. The Nikkei soared to yet another record on Tuesday in Japan. Meanwhile, the yen and Japanese government bonds (JGBs) remained weak. Investors were bracing for an increase in spending, as well as a looser monetary policy, under Sanae Taichi, who will be the next premier of the country. Takaichi has been favored by the majority of the ruling coalition, which holds the most seats in the parliament. As usual, the slide in the Japanese yen attracted the attention of the authorities. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated on Tuesday that his government would be on guard for volatile currency movements. The auction of 30-year JGBs on Tuesday was closely watched and seen as a test to see if investors were ready for the expected expansion in Japan's spending and monetary policy. This eased concerns that investors would be reluctant to buy long-dated bonds due to the uncertainty of fiscal policy. JGBs recovered some of their losses after the auction, and yields fell. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Tuesday. French Politics Bowman, Bostic and Kashkari, Fed officials, speak
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Oil extends gains on smaller-than-expected OPEC+ output hike
Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday as a smaller-than-expected November output hike by OPEC+ helped to ease some fears of a growing supply glut. Brent crude futures rose 23 cents or 0.35% to $65.70 per barrel at 0356 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude climbed 21 cents or 0.34% to $61.90. The previous session saw both contracts settle more than 1% above the previous one after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other smaller producers - also known as OPEC+ – decided to increase their collective oil production from November by 137,000 barrels a day. Analysts at ING said that this move contrasted with market expectations of a more aggressive reintroduction. It was a sign the group is still cautious about increasing their production share on the global oil markets, despite predictions of a surplus of supply in the fourth and next years. Anh Pham is a senior analyst with LSEG. She said that Brent had dropped by $5 per barrel in the previous week due to expectations for a bigger supply boost. This mild rebound therefore seems reasonable. He added, "For the moment, the market appears to be able to accommodate the additional volume and we have not yet seen a change into contango on the front curve." OPEC+ increased its oil production targets by over 2.7 million bpd in this year. This is equivalent to around 2.5% of the global demand. The geopolitical situation has kept prices in check, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is affecting energy assets and creating an uncertainty about Russian crude oil supply. Two industry sources reported on Monday that the Russian Kirishi oil refining plant halted CDU-6's most productive distillation after a drone attack on October 4 and a subsequent fire. The unit is expected to recover in about a month. Despite the increase in oil production by both OPEC+ members and non-OPEC+ members, oil prices are still under pressure. Analysts said that any slowdown in the demand caused by weak economic growth due to U.S. tariffs would likely exacerbate this surplus.
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Europa Oil & Gas Eyes 2026 Drilling with PSC Extension in Equatorial Guinea
Europa Oil & Gas has received a one-year extension from the Minister of Hydrocarbons and Mining Development for Equatorial Guinea for the initial two-year period of the EG-08 production sharing contract (PSC), with the plans for drilling of the Barracuda prospect set for 2026.Europa Oil & Gas holds a 42.9% equity interest in Antler Global, which has an 80% working interest in the EG-08 PSC. The remaining 20% is held by GEPetrol, the national oil and gas company of Equatorial Guinea, representing the state’s interest.Formalities to finalize the extension are ongoing and expected to be completed in the coming days. As a result, the first sub-period of Phase 1 of the PSC will now expire on October 4, 2026.The EG-08 block contains 2.196 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas (Pmean), with the primary prospect Barracuda estimated at 878 billion cubic feet (BCF) (Pmean).“I am pleased to have secured the Minister’s approval for this extension which will provide plenty of time to finalize the farm out process for EG-08, where we continue to make good progress. Concurrently, the technical team are working on detailed engineering plans for drilling the Barracuda prospect, which we hope to spud in 2026,” said William Holland, Chief Executive Officer of Europa.Block EG-08, located offshore in the Douala Basin of Equatorial Guinea, is held by Antler Global Ltd, a company set up to acquire the EG-08 block. The PSC became effective in October 2023, with Antler holding an 80% working interest and GEPetrol holding the remaining 20%.The EG-08 block covers 731 square kilometers and has three high-graded prospects assessed to have similar AVO characteristics to the Alen and Aseng fields and other discoveries in Chevron’s Blocks O and I to the south. The prospects are covered with 3D seismic data and lie in about 80 meters of water, with reservoir targets at around 2,800 meters, drillable with a jack-up rig.The three prospects have been defined using standard Amplitude Variation with Offset (AVO) techniques. Since 2005, nine exploration wells have been drilled in this area using AVO techniques, eight of which were discoveries. Volumes across the prospects are estimated at mean prospective resources of 2.116 TCFE (gas and condensate).
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Fed rate cuts and safe-haven demand drive gold to all-time high
Gold reached a new record on Tuesday, as there was no sign of an end to the impasse that led to the government shutdown between the two chambers of the U.S. Congress. Near-certainty bets about a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in this month also provided support. Gold spot was up 0.1% to $3,965.39 an ounce at 0308 GMT after reaching a session high of $3977.19 earlier. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery gained 0.3%, to $3988.10. Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, said: "The (chances) of October and December cuts remain above 80%. This is actually supporting the gold price and this government shutdown too given that there's still no resolution reached between the two U.S. Congress sides." Jeff Schmid, Kansas City Fed Bank president, has indicated that he does not intend to further cut interest rates. He said the Fed should focus on the dangers of high inflation and not just apparent weakness in job markets. According to CME FedWatch, markets are still pricing additional 25 basis point rate cuts for both October and December, with probabilities 95% and 83% respectively. Gold that does not yield is a good investment in low-interest rate environments and economic uncertainty. The gold price has increased by 51% this year, mainly due to central bank purchases and the demand for Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) backed by gold. A weaker dollar also helped. Retail investors are increasingly interested in hedging their positions amid increasing trade and geopolitical tensions. Goldman Sachs increased its December 2026 forecast for gold to $4.900 per ounce, up from $4.300, on Monday. It cited strong Western exchange traded fund (ETF), and central bank purchases. Silver spot fell by 0.1% at $48.49 an ounce. Platinum dropped 0.4% to $1.619.62, and palladium increased 0.1% to 1,325.71. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Sonia Cheema)
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China's central banks extends gold purchases for the 11th month
Official data released by the People's Bank of China on Tuesday showed that China's central banks added gold to their reserves for the 11th consecutive month. China's gold reserves increased to 74.06 millions fine troy ounces by the end September, from 74.02million ounces in August. The PBOC reported that the gold reserves of the country were valued at an estimated $283.29 Billion at the end last month. This is up from $253.84 Billion at the end August. Ross Norman, an independent analyst, said that a strong figure would confirm the notion that China is eager to dedollarize and accelerate their actions in this space. "Further purchase, even modest purchases, will be viewed domestically as positive in a price sensitive market. This may reduce the large discounts offered by Loco Shanghai. "It will give ETF investors and institutions the confidence that gold prices will continue to rise." The gold price, which is traditionally seen as a safe haven from economic and political uncertainty, has reached multiple records so far this season due to uncertainty over U.S. Tariffs, geopolitical conflict, the expectation of interest rate reductions, a weaker dollar, and central bank purchases. On Monday, gold prices rose above $3900 per ounce. The PBOC halted their 18-month gold buying spree in May 2024. The central bank began buying gold again in November 2024. The World Gold Council (WGC), in a survey, found that central banks expect their gold reserves as a percentage of their total reserves to rise over the next five year period. However, they anticipate their dollar reserves will be lower. Reporting by Zhang Yan and Qiaoyi Li in Bengaluru, as well as Anushree Mukerjee and Ishaan Aroo from Bengaluru. Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Christian Schmollinger and Jacqueline Wong.
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Experts urge urgent action as dengue cases spread across Bangladesh
Health experts in Bangladesh have warned that the dengue epidemic is rapidly worsening, with the number of infections and deaths increasing across the nation. They also warn the disease will spiral out of control if coordinated and urgent mosquito control measures are not implemented. As of October 6, the Directorate General of Health Services reported 50,689 cases of dengue and 215 deaths in the United States. Professor Kabirul bashar, an entomologist from Jahangirnagar University said that the outbreak of mosquito-borne diseases -- already severe in September -- could become "alarming this month" due to climate changes and erratic rain, as well extended holidays and weak action by local governments which disrupted antimosquito campaigns. Bashar warned that the situation would spiral out of control if we did not act. Climate change, he said, has prolonged the mosquito breeding season. Delays in fogging and cleaning drives have also exacerbated the problem. Dengue, which was once confined to major cities, is now spreading into smaller towns and rural regions, causing fears that the disease could become endemic throughout the country. Health officials are concerned that the crisis is likely to worsen in the next few weeks as hospitals continue to be overburdened and infections continue to rise. A rise in chikungunya cases, which is also transmitted by mosquitoes, has exacerbated the crisis. Although chikungunya rarely causes death, both adults and children can suffer from severe joint pains and weakness. The worst dengue year in Bangladesh was 2023. This is when 1,705 people died and more than 321,000 were infected. Experts warn the country may face a new cycle of destruction if preventive measures aren't taken. (Reporting and editing by Raju Gopikrishnan; Ruma Paul)
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Goldman increases its December 2026 gold forecast to $4.900/oz
Goldman Sachs increased on Monday its December 2020 gold price forecast from $4,300 to $4,900, citing a strong Western ETF inflow and possible central bank purchases. Goldman stated that "we see the risks of our upgraded gold forecast as still being skewed on net to the upside, because private sector divergence into the relatively tiny gold market could boost ETF holdings beyond our rates-implied estimation," Goldman said. As of 1300 GMT on Tuesday morning, spot gold was trading at around $3960 per ounce after reaching a new high of $3977.19 earlier that day. Gold prices have risen 51% this year, thanks to central bank purchases, an increase in demand for gold-backed ETFs and a weaker US dollar. Retail investors are also becoming more interested as they seek a hedge against increasing trade and geopolitical tensions. Goldman estimates that central bank purchases will average 80 tons in 2025, and 70 tons by 2026. They say emerging market central banks will continue to diversify their gold reserves structurally. Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect Western ETF holdings to increase as the U.S. Federal Reserve lowers the funds rate 100 basis points between now and mid-2026. "In contrast to this, the more noisy speculative positions have remained largely stable." After the large increase in September, the level Western ETF holdings have now fully caught-up with our U.S. rate-implied estimation, suggesting that the recent ETF strength was not an overshoot," the report said. Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru, Editing by Tom Hogue & Muralikumar Anantharaman
Zambia's debt restructuring limps over line as agonizing test case
More than threeandahalf years, or 1,300 days, after resourcerich Zambia formally stated itself bankrupt it will drag itself out of default, leaving some tough lessons for richer nations about how their muchvaunted financial obligation relief strategy carried out.
Tuesday will see its global bondholders vote through their part of a $13.4 billion financial obligation restructuring and make Zambia the first to complete a full-blown rework under the G20-led ' Typical Structure' architecture.
Hakainde Hichilema, Zambia's president, has explained it as a historic moment and the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, has actually hailed it as a crucial sign of multilateral cooperation.
But for many associated with the daily work - and repeated hold-ups - it will be more of a tired cheer than a celebratory fist shake.
It was painful for Zambia - we totally acknowledge that, William Roos, the co-chair of both the 'Paris Club' of richer Western financial institution countries and of Zambia's Official Lender Committee that included Zambia's greatest loan provider China, stated at a. Finance for Development Laboratory financial obligation conference in Paris on Friday.
So we have to enhance. But we delivered.
The general restructuring is approximated to cut around $900. million dollars from Zambia's debt and spread its future. payments over a much longer timespan.
It has actually been its role as a Common Framework guinea pig,. though, that has made it popular.
Released throughout COVID-19 in 2020, the Structure was developed. to bring all the different loan providers to poorer countries under one. roofing-- especially China whose loaning blew up in the decade. before the pandemic.
It was considered as an advancement but the remarkable. length of time Zambia's restructuring has actually taken, in addition to. others still continuous in Ghana and Ethiopia, has resulted in criticism. of delays and complexity.
Officials and creditors in all three nations have. grumbled about a lack of transparency.
Masitala Mushinga, director of debt management at Zambia's. Ministry of Financing, stated they were positive and relaxed at the. beginning of the procedure-- but rapidly discovered themselves caught. between the similarity China, its greatest lender, and. bondholders who did not agree on what constituted similar. financial obligation relief.
The two elephants existed battling and we were right. there in the middle without any genuine assets, so to speak,. because we didn't understand how the process ought to play out, she. said at the Paris occasion.
Spats emerged early on when China called for the huge. Western-led multilateral advancement banks to likewise swallow. losses, while in November the main creditor group, led by. China and France, temporarily torpedoed a government and. IMF-approved agreement with private sector shareholders in the. premises it did not supply adequate financial obligation relief.
The G20 structure ... I do not believe I want to recommend. that to any country, Ghana's central bank governor, Ernest. Addison, said at the same occasion Paris Club co-chair Roos was. speaking at, when asked about his nation's experiences.
BATTLEGROUND
Zambia's offer will see main sector financial institutions reschedule. $ 6.3 billion worth of their loans while 3 of the nation's. main bonds, worth a combined $3 billion, will be rolled into 2. with brand-new payment schedules and conditions.
A modest quantity of bank and other loans stay to be. restructured.
Former IMF General Counsel Sean Hagan and sovereign debt. professional Brad Setser highlight how clauses inserted in the new. deals mean Zambia - which is Africa's second largest copper. manufacturer - will make extra payments if it recovers quickly.
Those extra payments though might press its financial obligation back up. to a level where the IMF states it is at high danger of financial obligation. distress once again however.
Backers of the Common Structure however insist that its. troubles are being settled.
Allison Holland, who heads the IMF's Debt Policy Department,. believes lessons found out in Zambia suggested Ghana was able to get. from IMF personnel level agreement to programme approval far. quicker.
She added that official creditors now have a much better. understanding of each other's issues and restrictions which. the setting up of a Worldwide Sovereign Financial obligation Roundtable indicates the. process can now be constantly be enhanced.
Bondholder committee member Thys Louw at South Africa-based. financial investment company NinetyOne believes, nevertheless, that the struggles in. Zambia were deep rooted which the concept that restructurings. have lots of typical features is a fallacy.
We were constantly positive in regards to engagement, but. Zambia ended up being basically the battleground, the security. damage in the more comprehensive themes at play, Louw stated, pointing to. both the West's hawkishness towards China and the issue. initially that a wave of defaults was approaching.
REAL WIN
Among Zambia's legal consultants, Melissa Butler at law practice. White & & Case, also kept in mind how China was singled out for. criticism.
There was a great deal of finger pointing (at China) in the early. days that was somewhat unreasonable, since there was a learning. procedure going on, Butler said.
They have actually demonstrated that they want to engage with the. rest of the global neighborhood, and in Zambia they. delivered. That to me is the genuine win here.
China's foreign ministry representative Wang Wenbin informed a. regular rundown on Friday that Beijing's efforts had been. highly appreciated by all sides which it would, continue. to collaborate and comply with all celebrations worried.
The IMF concluded its evaluation of Zambia's Extended Credit. Center (ECF) on Tuesday - and Zambia likewise asked to increase that. $ 1.3 billion loan program to $1.7 billion to assist it respond. to the country's worst drought in 40 years.
But will getting its restructuring over the line clear the. path for the next Typical Framework default any place it emerge?
I believe it might be easier, however do I think it will get less. complex? No, White and Case's Butler stated.
(source: Reuters)