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Singapore's oil products inventories fall to a two-week low
Official data on Thursday showed that oil product inventories in Singapore, a key trading hub in Asia, have eased after a recovery last week. This was primarily due to a drop in stocks across the barrel. Enterprise Singapore's data shows that the combined onshore oil products stocks were 40.45 millions barrels during the week ending July 1, a decrease of 4.1% compared to last week. The weekly average for June was 37.5 million barrels. Following an interim agreement between the U.S.A. and Iran, the markets are preparing for a gradual improvement in supply as more ships begin to leave the Strait of Hormuz. LIGHT DISTILLATES AND RESIDUAL FUELS - LOG TWO WEEK LOWS Singapore's light distillate inventory, which includes naphtha, gasoline and other products, has fallen to a new low in two weeks, falling to 12.7 million barrels. This is because net gasoline exports have outpaced imports. There are also strong flows of gasoline to important buyers like Indonesia. The total gasoline exports were about 337,000 metric tonnes (about 2.8 millions barrels). This was more than the imports, which were roughly 249,000 tons. Indonesia alone imported nearly 267,000 tons. Saudi Arabia supplied about 82,000 tonnes. The naphtha inventories likely increased as imports of approximately 206,000 tons (1.8 millions barrels) exceeded the exports of around 175,000 tons. Cargoes arriving mostly from Russia, at 91,000 tonnes, were the main contributors. Middle East imports were missing. The residual fuel oils inventories have also dropped, after a strong recovery last week. Stocks totaled 19.65 million barrels (3.0 million tons), a 3.2% drop week-on-week. Total exports dropped 53.7% to 165,000 tonnes, while imports declined 15.5%. After weeks of absence some inflows, including from Iraqi and Saudi Arabia, were finally recorded. The tanks' outflows were mostly destined for the Philippines and Vietnam. MIDDLE DISTRILLATES STOCK IS AT A THREE WEEK LOW The middle distillates stock, which includes diesel and jet fuel, fell?for nearly a week, but was still above 8 million barrels. Net exports for both fuels, however, were lower week-on-week. Net exports of diesel and gasoil fell by about 10% while jet fuel and Kerosene's net exports dropped 60%. Exports to Australia, Indonesia, and New Zealand were mostly diesel and gasoil. The wider east-west spread of the last week has led traders to expect fewer cargoes coming from India in the near future, signaling better margins for sellers on the west of Suez markets. For the week, most of the imports of jet fuel and Kerosene were from China and South Korea.
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After a heatwave in Europe, firefighters battle fires in southern France
On Thursday, firefighters were fighting a number of 'wildfires' in southern France that had been fanned out by strong winds. The country was suffering from parched conditions following Europe's recent heatwave. Interior Minister Laurent Nunez reported that three 'fires', of which two broke out at the western edge the Mediterranean port of Marseille, scorched an area of 12,100,000 square metres. World Meteorological Organization warned last week that sustained high temperatures and low humidity, combined with dry vegetation, would increase the risk of wildfires. The largest wildfire was burning near the border of Spain in the Aude administrative district area, with 900 hectares?burned. High winds are making it harder for the 800 firefighters to fight the fire, according to local authorities. Firefighters were taming a small fire in Rognac, near the airport in Marseille. They had also brought another nearby fire in Lancon-Provence that covered 260 hectares under control. Local officials confirmed that there were no injuries. A witness reported that an acrid smoke smell hung over the area. Pilots of at least one landing flight in the city assured passengers that the smell did not come from their aircraft. More than 2,000 people evacuated six campsites in Frejus (a resort town) in the Var department, 35 km from Cannes. The reason was a forest fire. France's weather service has warned of another extreme heat wave next week. The health authorities estimate that the last heatwave may have led to around 1,000 deaths. Reporting by Manon C. Cruz and Alessandro Parodi; Writing by Sudip K. Gupta and Charlotte Van Campenhout, Editing by Timothy Heritage Joe Bavier Richard Lough Thomas Derpinghaus
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Hungary to clampdown on EV batteries after pollution case
Hungarian Environment minister Laszlo Gajdos threatened to shut down factories in the EV battery industry if they did not comply with environmental regulations. This is a significant policy shift for Viktor Orban, a right-wing politician who lost his power in April. Orban, who lost power in April, has 'bet big on EV batteries. He will attract foreign investment of EUR26 billion ($29.69billion) by 2021, mostly from South Korean and Chinese companies, making Hungary a hub in Europe. Environmental and health and security concerns about the plants were a key issue before the election. Centre-right rival Peter Magyar who promised to take a "tougher stance" on the sector defeated Orban by a wide margin. Gajdos stated in a late Wednesday Facebook post that "we must restore the balance between industrial development and environmental conservation." "In the last 16 years, this balance has completely shifted in favor of industry." He said that those who repeatedly violate?regulations and jeopardize the health and safety of Hungarians and ignore Hungarian law have no place in Hungary. He promised to increase pollution fines to Europe's highest levels. Laszlo Papp is the mayor of Debrecen, a member of Orban’s Fidesz Party. He called on Semcorp, a Chinese battery parts manufacturer, to leave Hungary’s second largest city, due to recent environmental pollution findings. Semcorp's production license was suspended by the regional government office in late June after authorities discovered large-scale aluminum pollution in water samples collected from monitoring wells around the plant. Semcorp's?Hungarian Management, which produces aluminium and lithium-ion plastic films as well as separator films for batteries, did not respond immediately to emailed comments. Zsolt Tarkanyi of the Magyar Tisza Party, Debrecen, stated on Facebook that after the revelations the city mayor must resign. Magyar endorsed this call with three victory symbols under the post. Tisza has seen its popularity?increase further since the elections. A Median poll shows that 73% of voters are behind it, compared to 21% who support Orban's Fidesz.
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Sources say that Hengli China has cut its oil production and ceased to purchase oil from the Middle East, West Africa, and West African countries.
Five trade sources have confirmed that China's Hengli Petrochemical has cancelled its recent purchases of non-Iranian oil. This forced the company to further cut back on refinery operations as the inventory was running low. The strange cancellations came just a few weeks after reports that the refiner had purchased cargos from West Africa, the Middle East and other parts of the world to avoid Washington's list. Three sources briefed about the issue said that the refiner had cancelled at least six million barrels. They said that 2 million barrels (of West African oil) were delivered last month to storage tanks in eastern?China by a third-party. Two other 2-million-barrel Middle Eastern cargoes are also scheduled to arrive in July. According to one source, a Middle Eastern cargo has been resold. Sources spoke under condition of anonymity, as the subject is sensitive. It was not clear why the cancellations, which had never been reported before, occurred. Hengli is one of China's biggest independent refiners. Emails seeking comment or clarification were not answered and phone calls to the company did not reach anyone. In April, the U.S. placed sanctions on this refinery. Hengli denied having any dealings with Iran shortly after. As part of the interim peace agreement, Washington lifted sanctions last week on Iranian oil. Iran has increased oil loadings but it is unclear who may be purchasing oil under this new waiver. CANCELLATIONS RARELY OCCUR The traders added that it is unusual for large refiners cancel or default on deals at short notice. One of the suppliers said, "This is a big blow to the trading team. They tried so hard to get the mainstream market back. They knocked on doors and tried to reach out to many partners." Sources said that Hengli structured its purchases through a supply chain of traders in order to minimize any sanctions imposed on the parties. According to one source, it was difficult to determine which companies suffered losses. It was not clear whether Hengli compensated sellers. The refiner said in late April that its 400,000-barrel-per-day plant in ?northeast China was holding more than three months' worth of crude oil stocks, and that it ?would seek a legal path to being removed from the sanctions list. Hengli, unable to purchase non-sanctioned crude oil to replenish its stock, has been forced to cut back on its refining output, according to two sources. According to two different sources, the refinery reduced its operating rate by 50% after closing one?of two 200,000-bpd units for crude distillation in late June. Refinery operated at 70% capacity in early June, and more than 80% capacity in May. Reporting by Chen Aizhu, Trixie Yap and Florence Tan; Editing and editing by Edwina Gibbs and Florence Tan
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After Modi-Takaichi's talks, India and Japan sign pacts in AI, metals, energy, and other areas
India and Japan signed pacts to enhance their cooperation in metals, energy and artificial intelligence on Thursday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced after his talks with Japanese counterpart Sanae Takaichi. Takaichi has been in New Delhi for a three-day trip as the two Asian partners celebrate their 16th annual summit. Modi told reporters that the convergence of Japan’s precision technology with India’s software capabilities would give global AI development a new vigor and strength. According to Indian government statistics, bilateral trade between India and Japan reached $27.5 billion during the fiscal year 2025/26. Japanese investment in India was $3.2 billion from April 2025 until December 2025. Modi announced that both countries, which are members of the Quadrilateral grouping, had signed an agreement for their first joint development project in the defense sector. He added, "Through the India-Japan Bio-gas Initiative we will establish 1,000 bio-gas plants and organic fertilizer factories in India." Japan is one of India's biggest investors. It has backed major infrastructure projects, including a high-speed railway corridor connecting Mumbai and Ahmedabad. Japanese firms have increased their investments in Indian companies, including a $1.6 billion deal to buy a 20% stake at Yes Bank. Takaichi will be speaking at a conference on business later in the day with a 'large business delegation. (Reporting and writing by Tanvi Mhta; editing by YPrajesh).
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Kyrgyzstan seeks help from neighbours to meet fuel shortages in Russia
Kyrgyzstan, which was concerned about possible fuel shortages due to Ukraine's drone strikes against Russian refineries, asked Kazakhstan, Belarus and Azerbaijan to help ensure stable fuel supplies on Wednesday evening. The 7-million-strong Central Asian nation imports 90% of its fuel from Russia. Russia is also experiencing acute fuel shortages due to the Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure. Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Moscow may ban diesel exports due to the growing domestic shortages. The Kyrgyzstan energy ministry released a statement saying that "to ensure sustainable fuel supply, official requests were sent to the government authorities of?Russian Federation?, the Republic of Kazakhstan?, the Republic of Belarus?, the Republic of Azerbaijan?, the Republic of Uzbekistan?, and Turkmenistan?." Fuel stocks are sufficient, and deliveries are going as planned, according to the ministry. Kyrgyz officials introduced price controls on some retail fuel sales in June. The Kyrgyzstan oil traders association also reported that some filling stations are experiencing a'shortage of AI-95 gas,' although stocks of the'more commonly used AI-92 grade are sufficient for 30 to 40 days. Diesel fuel is still available, which is critical for the harvesting season. Since the '2022 invasion of Ukraine Kyrgyzstan, like other Central Asian countries, has experienced periodic 'inflationary shocks. It is also a major clearinghouse for Russian trade redirected by Western sanction. Reporting by Aigerim Turgunbaeva. Writing by Felix Light & Louise Heavens
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Adani and IHC plan to build a $11.5 billion aluminum project in Odisha, India
?Abu Dhabi’s?International Holding Company? plans to invest $11.5billion in an integrated aluminum project in eastern Indian state Odisha via a joint venture India’s Adani Group?, a State official announced on Thursday. This would be the largest foreign investment?in metals in the country. India is investing in aluminium to meet the growing demand for infrastructure, power, transportation and renewable energy. It also wants to reduce its reliance on imports of metal products with added value. The federal government announced steps last year to increase aluminium production and stated that 'domestic demand will reach 8.5 millions metric tons in fiscal 2030. According to the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), IHC Group and Adani Group each will hold 50% of the venture. The venture will include a refinery and a smelter as well as a captive energy plant and downstream aluminum manufacturing park. This will create the largest aluminium complex in the state. The project's annual capacity will be 4 million?tons alumina. It also has a 2 MTPA aluminum capacity, and 1 MTPA downstream aluminium facility. Odisha is home to India's largest bauxite deposits, which are used to make aluminum. It accounts for 54% the nation's 'aluminum' output. At the signing of the MoU, an official said that the project is expected to create 53.500 jobs. 35,000 will be created during construction, and another 18.500 when operations begin. Adani Group led by billionaire Gautam Adani does not operate an aluminum manufacturing facility at the moment, but has announced plans to build alumina refineries and aluminium plants in Odisha. In the Indian state of Gujarat, its flagship company Adani Enterprises operates a copper smelter worth $1.2 billion, which is the largest plant of this kind in the world.
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Mike Dolan: Wall Street's old bull faces an "everlasting" US expansion
The U.S. economy has been undergoing a transformation. One of the most remarkable aspects is its escape from the?significant cyclical depression since mid-2009. This 17-year period has accelerated the stock market's boom and facilitated funding for the AI transformation. This is not the "Great Moderation", the period from mid-2007 to 1984 when macroeconomic volatility was dramatically reduced. The economy of today is bumpy and politically noisy. It's marked by widening income gaps, and it has already started to show signs of inflation. Investors have almost completely abandoned the idea of a possible downturn in the near future. It is harder to imagine what could derail the economy if it can survive surging interest rates and tariffs, or even this year's unprecedented energy shock. This resilience is not all cyclical. A more services-heavy economic system, stronger balance sheets, and quicker policy backstops may help absorb shocks which might have otherwise triggered a recession. The 2020 pandemic was a real event, and it was triggered by the deliberate shutdowns that were made to contain COVID-19. It was neither a cyclical recession nor a winding down of excess. The government also provided massive support, and the downturn was mercifully short. It was a V-shaped decline and recovery as vaccines were created at an unprecedented pace. It can be almost discounted when examining the performance over the last 80 years of the "overall" economy. If you remove the two consecutive quarters in 2020 of real GDP contraction -- which is the accepted definition of a recession by most economists -- then the world's biggest economy will have its longest period of no recession since World War Two. Since the financial crash in 2008, we haven't experienced a major bust. The output fell for four quarters in a row, from mid-2009 to mid-2010, as part of an 18 month stretch where GDP showed five quarterly negative prints. The 10-year period that ended in the dotcom crash was the longest recession-free post-WW2 stretch. In the 1960s, nine years were also unbroken. But neither is close to the 17-year streak that still continues, excluding the pandemic-free year. There have been four isolated quarterly contractions during this long stretch. No quarter, including the first-quarter decline in 2025 tied to an import surge before tariffs, was followed by another quarterly decline. It is possible that up to half of U.S. employees have never experienced a nationwide recession. Many traders and investors today may also be in the same boat. Recession-probability metrics have flashed red several times over the past six years -- during the 2022 inflation and rate shock, after President Donald Trump's tariff sweep early last year, and again during this year's Iran war and fuel-price spike. The downturns didn't happen, and now few see a looming one. Bank of America's global fund managers survey found that only 5% of respondents expect an economic "hard landing" in the next year. A BULL AGING Wall Street has been able to maintain its "buy the dip mentality" for many years due to the absence of recession and the accumulation of wealth and savings. This has been reinforced by a concentration of market dominance in a few tech megacaps, and over the last three years by the transformative AI themes. Strategists say that a recession is not necessary to cause a market shake-up. Deutsche Bank highlighted last year several large S&P 500 drawsdowns which did not involve recessions. These included the 25% peak to trough fall of 2022, as interest rates surged. These episodes were not triggered or influenced by recession. Analysts at Societe Generale say that the U.S. equity bear market has been remarkable both in terms of its size and duration. The S&P 500 gained almost 400% in 13 years. They calculate that, excluding the exceptionally brief drop around the 1987 crash they estimate that, on average, bear-market?downturns have taken over two years to run their course. Recovery to previous peaks has taken an average of 11 years. The SocGen team reiterates that bull markets don't die with age. They added that "they generally succumb to tightening of financial conditions, excessive borrowing or economic shocks." How closely the long-term economic expansion and the long-term equity bull market will remain intertwined in the future remains to be seen. The lack of experience most people have with recessions may make it less likely that one will occur, as they are more confident in the ability to recover quickly. This same lack of experience can also lead to complacency and a carelessness towards cycles that are now long forgotten. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
Aluminium prices fall as supply prospects improve
Aluminum prices dropped on Thursday, as improved supply expectations overshadowed the support of resilient manufacturing data.
Benchmark -three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.46% to $3,062 per metric tonne by 0700 GMT. It fell to $3,040 a metric tonne earlier in the day, its lowest level since February 19.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded aluminium contract fell 0.38%, to 22,400 Yuan ($3,300.09).
Emirates Global Aluminium announced that it would be able to restore production at its Al Taweelah Complex - one the largest aluminium production facilities in the world - sooner than expected, signaling an "improving outlook" for supply.
Norsk Hydro announced on Wednesday that it will partially restartaluminium at its smelter?in Slovakia during the fourth quarter.
Buyers of aluminium have found other sources of supply in the short-term.
After surveys in China, Europe and the U.S. showed steady manufacturing activity, despite higher prices for raw materials, aluminium prices have been supported by robust manufacturing data.
Other than that, the price of copper has been subdued since a deadline in June for a "recommendation" on possible U.S. Tariffs on refined Copper passed without an official announcement by the White House.
On the LME copper dropped?0.49% and fell to $13,234 on the?SHFE.
Kevin Warsh's balanced comments about inflation eased concerns that persistent price pressures would lead to higher interest rates for longer.
Rate increases suppress economic activity, which in turn affects industrial minerals that are dependent on growth. Zinc fell 1.31% on the LME, while lead dropped 0.16% and nickel fell 0.79%. Tin also fell 1.32%. On the SHFE, tin fell by 0.23%, while nickel and lead both dropped by 0.96%. $1 = 6.8787 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Ronojoy Mazumdar, Sonia Cheema).
(source: Reuters)