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Palm production likely to fall in June due to better demand
The price of palm oil in Malaysia rose on Wednesday as a result of improved demand, a rally of soyoil and a possible reduction of production for June. By midday, the benchmark palm oil contract on Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives exchange for September delivery had gained 66 Ringgit or 1.66% to 4,034 Ringgit per metric ton. "Overall, the market has improved. Demand has returned to normalcy." Our preliminary assessment of lower production in the month of June, coupled with the rallying soyoil prices, helped keep palm prices competitive, said Paramalingam Supramaniam at Selangor brokerage Pelindung Bestari. Dalian's palm oil contract, which is the most active contract, gained 0.79%. The Chicago Board of Trade's (CBOT) soyoil price was 0.71% higher. As palm oil competes to gain a share in the global vegetable oils industry, it tracks the price fluctuations of competing edible oils. According to AmSpec Agri Malaysia (an independent inspection company), exports of Malaysian products containing palm oil rose by 4.3% in June compared to the previous month. Intertek Testing Services reported a 4.7% increase. The statistics bureau reported that Indonesian crude palm oil and refined palm oils exports increased by 53% from a year earlier in May. This was because the tropical oil began trading at a lower price than its competitors, which boosted demand from major buyers. Indonesia increased its crude palm oil benchmark price to $877.89 a metric ton, up from $856.38 a metric ton, in June. A trade ministry regulation published on Monday showed this increase. The palm ringgit's trade currency, the dollar, fell by 0.41%, making the commodity more affordable for buyers who hold foreign currencies. Technical analyst Wang Tao stated that palm oil could retest the resistance level of 4,015 Ringgit per metric tonne. A break above this would lead to gains in the range between 4,041 Ringgit and 4,063 Ringgit.
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Iron ore futures are up on a supply decline, but China's property woes limit gains
Iron ore futures rose on Wednesday, as exports from Australia and Brazil fell. However, the persistent weakness of China's real estate market limited gains. As of 0357 GMT, the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 0.77% higher. It was 716 yuan (US$99.91) per metric ton. Singapore Exchange benchmark August iron ore was up by 0.86% to $94 per ton. Everbright Futures, a broker, said that iron ore exports from Australia and Brazil, two of the world's top iron ore producers, have decreased, while global iron ore shipment has also declined. Everbright reported that hot metal production, which is a measure of iron ore consumption, has continued to rise month-on-month. China's factory output has increased since November 2024, according to official PMI and Caixin PMI. Even so, the resale prices of homes in China dropped at a faster rate in June. Meanwhile, new home price growth slowed down, highlighting persistent weakness on the property market in China. Analysts at ANZ also noted that a proposed by the China Iron & Steel Association restricting exports of certain products of steel could increase supply in the country and potentially pressure prices. Coking coal and coke both gained 0.92% on the DCE. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have risen. Rebar climbed 1.44%; hot-rolled coil jumped 1.12%; wire rod grew by 0.45% and stainless steel jumped 1.04%.
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EU adds international CO2 credits as part of next climate goal
A draft of the proposal revealed that the European Commission would propose on Wednesday an EU climate goal for 2040, which for the first will allow countries to utilize carbon credits from developing countries to meet a small share of their emission goals. The draft seen by said that the European Union executive will propose a legally binding target to reduce net greenhouse gas emission by 90% by 2040 from 1990 levels. This is to keep the EU on track to achieve its core climate goal of reaching net zero emissions in 2050. The draft EU proposal, however, includes flexibility that will soften the 90% emission target for European industry, following pressure from France, Germany and other governments, including Italy, Poland, and the Czech Republic. Prior EU emission targets were based solely on domestic emission reductions. The draft reflects Germany's public position that up to three percentage points of 2040 targets can be covered through carbon credits purchased from other countries via a U.N. supported market. This reduces the effort required for domestic industries. The draft stated that the carbon credits will be phased-in from 2036. "EU will propose legislation setting robust and high integrity standards and criteria, as well as conditions on origin, timing, and use of these credits," it said. The report said that countries would be given more flexibility in choosing the sectors of their economy that contribute most to the 2040 target. Climate change has made Europe one of the fastest-warming continents in the world. A heatwave that hit the continent this week caused wildfires, disruption and chaos. But Europe's aggressive policies to combat the temperature increase have stoked the tensions among the 27 member bloc. The European Commission's climate agenda is a way for the European Commission to improve Europe’s competitiveness and safety. However, some governments and legislators say that industries already struggling with high energy prices and U.S. tariffs cannot afford stricter emission rules. The draft stated that "Decarbonisation not only is crucial for the environment, but it can also be a key driver of growth in the economy when integrated with policies on industrial, trade, and competition." Un spokesperson for the Commission declined to comment on this draft which may change before publication. Carbon credits can be generated through projects that reduce CO2 emission abroad, such as forest restoration projects in Brazil. These carbon credits then raise money for these projects. Investigations have revealed that some credits did not deliver the claimed environmental benefits. The EU's Climate Science Advisors oppose counting them towards 2040 and say that spending money on carbon credits from abroad would divert investment away from local industries. EU legislators and countries must agree on the 2040 target. This lawmaking process may take many years, but by mid-September the EU must submit to the U.N. its new 2035 climate goal - which should be derived directly from the current 2040 target - as the Commission had stated. (Reporting and additional reporting by Michel Rose, editing by Barbara Lewis.)
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Oil prices remain unchanged as OPEC+ increases weigh on the market
The price of oil futures was little changed on Tuesday as the markets considered the expectations for more supply next month from major producers, a weaker U.S. Dollar and a mix bag of economic indicators and market indicators coming from the U.S. Brent crude rose 2 cents to $67.13 a bar at 0345 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 1 cent, down to $65.44 a bar. Brent oil has fluctuated between a high and a low of $69.05 per barrel since June 25. This is because concerns about supply disruptions have diminished following the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel. Sources said that American Petroleum Institute data released late Tuesday showed U.S. crude inventories had increased by 680,000 barrels over the past seven days, at a period when stocks are typically low during the summer season. "Today's oil prices are influenced by a combination of factors, including a potentially increasing OPEC+ production, unclear U.S. stock signals, an uncertain geopolitical scenario, and macro policy ambiguity," stated Phillip Nova Senior Market Analyst Priyanka Sahdeva. Investors have already factored in the planned increases by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+), which includes Russia. They are not likely to be caught off guard again soon, said Ms. Sher. Four OPEC+ source told us last week that the group will increase output by 411,000 barrels a day when it meets next month on July 6. This is a similar amount as what was agreed upon for May, June and even July. According to Kpler data, the market has already seen the effects of previous OPEC+ increases. Saudi Arabia, which is the largest oil exporter in the world, increased its shipments by 450,000 bpd in June from May. This was the highest level in over a year. Sachdeva said that, "With geopolitics at a minimum for the moment, oil futures are likely to trade in a tighter band this week as global economic worries persist. An easing dollar is the only exception which could extend any upward momentum." The greenback The number of people who are unemployed has fallen to its lowest level in three and a half years A weaker dollar could support prices, as it would encourage buyers to pay in other currencies. Tony Sycamore is an analyst at IG. He said that the Federal Reserve's interest rate reductions in the second half will be influenced by the non-farm payroll data released on Thursday. Lower interest rates would spur economic activity, which in turn would boost oil demand. The Energy Information Administration will release official data on the U.S. stockpile of oil by Wednesday morning at 10:30 am ET. ET. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger; Trixie Yap, Singapore; Sudarshan Varadahan in Singapore)
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PTTEP Hires Velesto’s Jack-Up Rig for Drilling Campaign off Malaysia
Malaysia’s oil and gas services Velesto has secured a drilling contract for its NAGA 5 jack-up drilling rig by PTTEP HK Offshore and PTTEP Sarawak Oil, collectively referred as PTTEP, for its 2025 - 2026 drilling campaign in Malaysia.Under the contract, Velesto will assign NAGA 5, one of its premium jack-up rigs, to drill a firm 15 wells with operations scheduled to commence in June 2025.The latest award follows Velesto’s recent announcements for NAGA 4 and NAGA 8 in May 2025, further strengthening the group’s fleet utilization outlook.Velesto continues to benefit from rising regional demand for jack-up rigs and anticipates a more active second half of 2025, supported by a robust tender pipeline and stable client activity.NAGA 5 is a premium independent-leg cantilever jack-up drilling rig with a rated operating water depth of 400 feet and drilling depth capability of 30,000 feet.“We thank PTTEP for their continued confidence and the opportunity to support their drilling operations in Malaysia. Our focus remains on safe, reliable execution, driven by consistent delivery across campaigns.“With several rigs under long-term contracts, we remain committed to operational discipline and value-driven execution that creates sustainable returns for our shareholders,” said Megat Zariman Abdul Rahim, President of Velesto.
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Copper gains as traders continue to ship ahead of potential US tariffs
On Wednesday, copper prices rose at the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange, as traders were expected to continue to rush metal shipments into the U.S. before potential import tariffs. This would further reduce inventories that are already very low. As of 0105 GMT the most traded copper contract on SHFE rose 0.62%, to 80,520 Yuan ($11238.43), per metric ton. This is the highest price range in 2025 so far, around the second half of March. The LME's three-month copper also increased 0.12%, to $9,945.5. Low copper inventories in the SHFE and LME, along with the continued shipment to the U.S. prior to the imposition on import tariffs, have supported the price. Copper Stocks Copper inventories in LME-registered storage shed 66% between the middle of February and now stand at 91 250 tons. In the warehouses monitored, the SHFE has also seen a 66% drop in stock since early March. The summer months are usually the time when copper inventories in China tend to increase due to a low season demand. ANZ reported that "U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent stated that Washington's negotiation with Beijing would focus first on reciprocal duties, and then on duties on raw materials such as copper." "A delayed tariff decision would justify a premium for U.S. Copper, giving traders more shipping time before levies are implemented." SHFE aluminium rose 0.61%, to 20,685 Yuan per ton. Tin gained 0.4%, to 268,420 Yuan. Lead increased by 0.2%, to 17,170 Yuan. Nickel grew by 0.16%, to 120,580 Yan, while Zinc fell 0.4%, to 22,165 Yan. LME aluminium rose 0.33%, to $2607 per ton. Lead gained 0.2%, to $2042, while zinc grew 0.06%, to $2715.5. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories. Data/Events (GMT 0900 EU Unemployment May Rate ($1 = 7.1647 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and Editing by Rashmi aich; Reporting by Hongmei Li)
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Investors weigh Fed rate stance as they assess US data and gold prices.
The gold price fell on Wednesday, as investors waited for U.S. employment data and assessed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious approach to rate cuts. However, a weaker greenback helped limit losses on bullion priced in dollars. As of 0217 GMT spot gold fell 0.2% to $3,330.68 an ounce while U.S. Gold Futures dropped 0.3%, falling to $3,340.60. Holders of other currencies can now afford to buy bullion because the U.S. Dollar index has fallen to its lowest level in over three years. Gold prices have been consolidating since posting their strongest gains in the past two weeks. "The overall trend bias continues in favour of the upside at this time," said Ilya SPivak, Tastylive's head of global macro. Powell said that the U.S. Central Bank will "wait and see" how tariffs impact inflation before it lowers interest rates. This is a further rejection of President Donald Trump's demand for immediate rate cuts. The number of U.S. jobs opened in May was unexpectedly higher, but the decline in hiring is a sign that the labour markets has shifted down gear due to the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s tariffs against imports. Investors will now be awaiting the U.S. ADP Employment data due later today, as well as nonfarm payroll numbers on Thursday, for more insight into the labour market. Spivak stated that the biggest risk to gold is an unexpectedly high (NFP) result, but this seems unlikely. The U.S. Senate Republicans passed Trump's tax and spending bill Tuesday by a narrow margin. It is a package that cuts taxes, reduces social safety net programs, increases military expenditures, while adding $3.3 billion to the national debt. Trump was optimistic on Tuesday regarding a possible trade agreement with India, but sceptical about a similar deal with Japan. He also said that he would not consider extending the deadline of July 9 for countries to reach trade agreements. Spot silver fell 0.1% per ounce to $36.01, platinum dropped 0.4% at $1,344.91, and palladium rose 0.4% to $ 1,104.92.
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Investors' expectations for the OPEC+ summit have not changed much in terms of oil prices
The price of oil futures was little changed on the day of Wednesday, as investors were cautious ahead of this week's meeting of major producers to decide output levels for August. Brent crude rose 1 cent to $67.12 a bar at 0124 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 5 cents, falling to $65.40 a bar. Analysts said that demand expectations were boosted on Tuesday by a survey conducted by the private sector, which showed that factory activity in China, world's largest oil importer, increased in June. Brent oil has fluctuated between a high and low of $68.40 and $66.34 a barrel since June 25 as fears of disruptions to supply in the Middle East region producing region have diminished. Oil prices are in a tight range, as there is less geopolitical uncertainty and more nervousness about what OPEC might do to increase production. This was said by Phil Flynn. Senior analyst at Price Futures Group. The price has been held down by the expectation that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies, including Russia, will increase their crude oil production in August by a similar amount to the large increases agreed upon in May, July, and June. Four OPEC+ members told four sources last week that the group intends to increase output by 411,000 barrels a day when it meets next month on July 6. According to Kpler data, the market has already seen the effects of previous OPEC+ increases. Saudi Arabia, which is the largest oil exporter in the world, increased its shipments by 450,000 bpd in June from May. This was the highest level in over a year. According to American Petroleum Institute figures, the crude oil inventory in the U.S. has increased by 680,000 barrels over the last week. The Energy Information Administration will release official data on Wednesday, 10:30 am ET. ET. Tony Sycamore is an analyst at IG. He said that the non-farm payrolls numbers due Thursday will determine the timing and depth of the interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve in the second half this year. Lower interest rates would spur economic activity, which in turn would boost oil demand. Investors also watch trade negotiations in advance of the tariff deadline set by U.S. president Donald Trump on July 9. Trump said on Tuesday that he does not plan to extend the deadline. (Reporting from Sudarshan Varadahan in Singapore, Editing by Christian Schmollinger).
Investors recoil as this year's 'whatever rally' shrieks to a stop
Financiers are ditching some of this year's favourite trades as a retreat in the glitzy megacaps threats growing out of control into a multipronged selloff that has hit everything from cryptocurrency to gold, and made calling the market's next relocation ever more intricate.
Shares on Wall Street ended lower on Thursday, adding to losses after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Wednesday suffered their worst day considering that late 2022.
The 2024 everything rally - stocks, and particularly tech, up; gold and crypto - up; dollar - up; emerging markets, up - might be on hold.
A diverse set of elements has lit the fuse of market anxiety over how extended evaluations in Big Tech may be, against a. background of rising U.S.-China trade stress and lukewarm. revenues.
Quarterly results from Tesla and Alphabet. , the very first of Wall Street's most valuable business to. report, have tense financiers ahead of a deluge of results. next week.
Microsoft reports on Tuesday, followed by Meta. Platforms on Wednesday, and after that Amazon and. Apple on Thursday. Those 4 business have a combined. stock market value of over $9 trillion and account for a 5th. of the whole S&P 500.
Financier placing was pretty pro-risk and people had. become rather positively likely towards markets and appraisals. had actually ended up being rather stretched, stated Toby Gibb, head of investment. solutions at fund manager Artemis in London. It's hard to. call whether the marketplace is going to continue fixing.
The S&P 500 ended 0.5% lower on Thursday after spending much. of the session in favorable territory.
Volatility has picked up, with the VIX index increasing. on Wednesday by the most in a day for two years.
The S&P 500 is trading at practically 22 times expected revenues,. an over-two year high, according to LSEG data. The criteria's. recent dip has actually left it up 14% in 2024.
On the benefit, (markets) are assessment insensitive and this. is the exact same on the downside. The volatility compression you have. on the way up enters the opposite direction en route down,. Mario Baronci, portfolio manager at Fidelity International,. said.
Wall Street's AI boom has actually produced a two-tier stock exchange,. with megacap stocks driving most of the S&P 500's ascent to. record highs, as the rest primarily bumble along.
Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory. Solutions, preserves a beneficial long-lasting view on tech stocks. but thinks they may be vulnerable to more volatility going. forward.
Tech is remedying following the strongest two-month. relative outperformance since 2022, he composed in a Thursday. report. Our base case is that the longer-term booming market. stays undamaged, however it's typically two steps forward, one step. back.
Meanwhile, China's economy is slowing quicker than financial experts. and Beijing authorities prepared for, drawing products into. the down-draught. Europe's home-grown high-end megacaps. , another favoured trade, have actually shed a quarter of a. trillion dollars in value given that their peak in March.
WHITE HOME ROLLERCOASTER
Adding to the mix is a rollercoaster race for the White. House, where Democrat President Joe Biden rescinded his. candidateship for Vice President Kamala Harris soon after an. assassination effort on Donald Trump. The Republican. candidate's anti-China rhetoric and possibly inflationary. policies have hit chipmakers around the globe and hurt U.S. 30-year federal government bonds.
However some huge financiers are specific this is a bull market dip. that ended up being undeservedly shrouded in geopolitical risk. language.
I believe these stories are being used to develop some. excuse for what was most likely just some sort of summer revenue. taking, said Richard Clode, tech portfolio supervisor at Janus. Henderson Investors.
As stocks and other 2024 star assets like gold, up. 14% this year, have been pounded this week, little cap shares. and traditional sanctuaries such as the Swiss franc and. the Japanese yen, have surged.
That is more than simply a flight from risk.
These currencies have actually been used for years to fund holdings. with juicier returns. As the Federal Reserve prepares to cut. rates of interest and doubt sneaks in about the toughness of the. equity market rally, those so-called bring trades are. unwinding.
This loads more pressure on the dollar, although. shorter-dated Treasuries have actually acquired today, pulling yields. down to almost six-month lows.
A great deal of investors had been selling the yen to purchase tech,. and with the recent strength in the yen and the loosen up of those. carry trades, that's developed some forced selling in the. large-cap tech space too, stated Jeff Schulze, Head of. financial and market technique ClearBridge Investments.
BITCOIN SYNDROME
With summertime trading normally thin and a common volatility. spike in the early fall, this is a time financiers take. earnings, Clode said, adding that this might present a buying. chance.
Lots of financiers, long-primed to see pull-backs as bull-market. blips and typically more focused on asset prices over valuations,. might concur.
I call this the 'bitcoin syndrome'. When it goes down. individuals do not mind. People think sooner or later it will go up. and that a correction is a good time to return to the market,. Fidelity's Baronci stated.
Bitcoin itself, however, has dropped 5% in as many. days to around $64,000.
Trade Nation senior market strategist David Morrison warned. against complacency.
More gains are asserted on solid 2nd quarter. outcomes, together with positive guidance for the existing. quarter. If that isn't upcoming, then anticipate more. profit-taking to emerge, he stated.
Financiers have a muscle-memory for this kind of thing.
(source: Reuters)