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Gold increases as the dollar weakens, but still on course for a fourth consecutive weekly loss
Gold prices rose on Friday, as the dollar fell and expectations of an interest rate increase in the U.S. eased after inflation data. However, they are still heading for a fourth successive weekly decline. By 1:35 pm EDT (1735 GMT), spot gold had risen 1.3% to $4,077.64 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery settled 1.2% higher at $4,096.30 an ounce. The U.S. Dollar eased off recent highs following the release of the Fed?s preferred inflation gauge on Friday. The U.S. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index soared 4.1% over the '12 months to May', which was in line with economists' predictions in a survey. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 59% probability of a U.S. interest rate increase in September. This is lower than the earlier expectation?of 64%. Jim Wyckoff is a market analyst with American Gold Exchange. He said that gold has seen a modest recovery after being under pressure to sell earlier in the week. The appeal of non-yielding gold is reduced by higher interest rates and tighter policy, which tend to increase bond yields and return on?interest bearing assets. This week, spot gold prices fell by 2.1% and hit a record low. TD Securities?said that sustained strength in the energy markets may put downward pressure on gold in 'the months to come. This week, gold started trading at a higher price in India for the first time since a month-and-a half. A price correction had prompted a surge in buying while the demand in China, its largest consumer, remained subdued. Silver spot rose by 2.2% per ounce, among other precious metals. Palladium rose 2.5%, to $1,213.87, while platinum gained 2%, to $1632.80. All three metals were heading for weekly decreases.
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EIA says US refining capacities will fall by 263,000 barrels a day in 2025.
U.S. refinery capacity fell by 263,000 barrels a day (bpd) or 1.43% in 2025. This was due to the planned conversion of a major Houston refinery and a Los Angeles area plant that closed citing market dynamics. California is known for its strict environmental regulations. According to the latest report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Marathon Petroleum in Findlay, Ohio continues to be the nation's largest refiner, with 2.986 millions bpd or 16.4% of national capacity. Valero Energy Corp., based in San Antonio, is the second largest refinery with a capacity of 2.23 million barrels per day (bpd), or 12 percent of U.S. production. According to the report, Motiva Enterprises, owned by Saudi Aramco, has a refinery in Port Arthur, Texas with a capacity of 656,400 bpd. The refinery's capacity increased by 15,900 bpd due to improved refining efficiency. The report is based upon reports of capacities of refineries submitted by companies to EIA?by January 1, 2020. Refineries are known to experience a dip in capacity from year to year. This is followed by a?eventual?recovery as they increase capacity through improved operating efficiency. Lyondell Basell Industries, a chemical manufacturer, will shut down its refinery in Houston (which produces 263,776 barrels per day) on February 20, 2025 to convert the site into a petrochemical facility. The company had said that the refinery did not fit into its business model of a global chemical producer. Phillips 66 will shut down its Los Angeles-area refinery in October 2025. The company said that the viability of the plant was uncertain because California's market dynamics have changed. (Reporting and editing by Nathan Crooks, David Gregorio, and Erwin Seba)
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Greenland refuses to renew the mining licence of Australian Energy Transition Minerals
Greenland announced on Friday that it has refused to renew the exploration license for its Kuannersuit Rare-Earths Project from Greenland Minerals, a division of Australia's Energy Transition Minerals. The government issued a statement saying that further exploration in the area was unlikely to result in the discovery of deposits which could be exploited according to the Uranium act. In 2021 the Inuit Ataqatigiit Party, then ruling in Greenland, banned uranium mining, effectively stopping the development of the Kuannersuit Rare-Earths Project, also known by the name Kvanefjeld. This project has uranium produced as a by-product. ETM reported in April that it received a draft?decision?from Greenland's government, indicating the Mineral Resources Ministry intended to recommend the application be declined. In an email, the Australian miner stated that its project will?bring employment, training and revenue to Greenland? and the town of Narsaq. "Greenland is presenting itself as a business-friendly country. ETM stated that this decision created a different impression. The company was given 48 hours to respond?to the technical geological assessment, and refused a one week extension. The decision was made in a short time frame, and did not consider the recent results of ETM's?exploration which revealed new mineralised zones throughout the entire?licence zone," the company said. Mute Egede said that the government made this decision in accordance with legislation passed by the parliament. "At the sam time, we listen to the people - especially in South Greenland - who have?made their position clear since?many?years. "We remain committed to the course Greenland chose," said Egede. He was the prime minister at the time the ban on uranium mines was implemented in 2021. (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao, Rod Nickel and Louise Rasmussen)
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Silver miner Sinda's NYSE debut falls after $213 Million IPO
The Mexican silver miner Sinda raised $213 million in its U.S. initial public offering. Shares of the company fell 10% on their debut at the New York Stock Exchange. Stocks of the San Miguel de Allende, Mexico based company opened at $10.80 each, lower than the $12 offered price. Sinda sold 17,75 million shares within the marketed price range of $11.25 - $13.25 per share. In recent months, a growing number of mining firms have turned to the capital markets to fund their capital-intensive operations and capitalize on the high metal prices. Pricing of the IPO below the middle of the marketed range could be a sign the IPO 'window' for mining firms only opens selectively and that preproduction miners don't get a free ride - because their value is dependent on how well they execute over a period of several years, said IPOX Research Associate?"Lukas muehlbauer. Sinda, formerly Minera Adularia Exploracion and founded in 2012, is a firm in the exploration stage with operations in Mexico. Mexico is the world's biggest silver-mining country. The Sinda Property is its flagship asset and it's located in Guanajuato, the silver belt. Sinda is a company in the portfolio of Thomas Kaplan, a metals investor and his investment firm Electrum Group. Kaplan is an Oxford-educated metals expert with over 30 years' experience. According to Sinda which targets initial production by 2031, the large primary silver asset could?become a?globally significant mining operation. Muehlbauer stated that "the?company's profile is high-risk and high-reward because of the location?and the experienced backing, but this does not eliminate the uncertainties associated with exploration-stage mining companies." In a Friday statement, Executive Chairman Daniel Muniz Quintanilla revealed that the silver-gold deposit in Sinda was "discovered" beneath a clay covering which had been used to conceal it for generations. (Reporting and editing by Arasu Kanagi Basil, Bengaluru.
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EU Wheat Slides with Chicago, Maize Holds Near Highs During Heatwave
Euronext Wheat fell on Friday, in line with Chicago. Falling crude oil prices and the advancing harvests in the Northern Hemisphere distracted attention from a severe heatwave that ravaged Western Europe. Maize remained near contract highs. September wheat?on?Paris-based Euronext?was down 1.6% to EUR202.75 ($231.24) per metric ton, at 1603 GMT. This was a further retreat from the four-week-high of EUR210.75 on Wednesday. Chicago wheat has also fallen by about 1.5%. As a result of increased traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices fell by around 4%. The de-escalation of the Iran conflict has also allowed fertilizer shipments to the Gulf to resume. This has contributed to a drop in prices. The concerns over the drought-diminished U.S. yields of wheat and the heatwave damage to France have been tempered by the rapid harvest progress on both side of the Atlantic, and the strong production prospects for the Black Sea Export Zone. Frontier Agriculture, a British merchant, said in a recent note that traders are weighing?weather risks against the Black Sea harvest's progress. This continues to support a bearish sentiment. The International Grains Council raised its forecasts for global wheat production in 2026/27 on Thursday, boosted by an upward revision of Russia's numbers. FranceAgriMer reported that farmers in France had harvested 7% soft wheat by Monday. This was ahead of the five-year average harvest of 1%. Last week, soft wheat conditions decreased but 76% were still rated good or excellent. Traders assess the impact of the heatwave on?wheat production. Some are now predicting that the crop will fall below last year’s 33.4 million-ton 'crop. The French Agriculture Ministry cited a 30% reduction in production, while growers feared a steeper drop. Euronext November Maize is 0.1% lower at EUR221.00 per ton. It's hovering around a contract high EUR224.75 from Wednesday. FranceAgriMer data revealed that the maize crop condition deteriorated dramatically?last weekend to reach a record low. Next week, the heatwave is expected to end in France but there is little rain forecast as maize is entering its crucial pollination phase.
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Greenland refuses to renew the mining licence of Australian Energy Transition Minerals
Greenland Minerals (a unit of Australia’s Energy Transition Minerals) has been refused a renewal application for its exploration licence by the Kuannersuit project. The government issued a statement saying that further exploration of the area was unlikely to result in deposits that could be exploited according to the Uranium Act. The then ruling left-wing Inuit Ataqatigiit Party in Greenland, banned uranium mines in 2021. This effectively stopped the development of the Kuannersuit Rare-Earths Project, also known by its other name, Kvanefjeld. It has uranium produced as a 'by-product. Energy Transition Minerals announced in April that it had received from the Greenland Government a draft decision indicating the Mineral Resources Ministry intended to recommend the application be denied. When contacted outside of regular office hours, the Australian miner failed to respond immediately when contacted. Mute Egede is the Greenlandic Minister of Foreign Affairs and Mineral Resources. In a Facebook post, he said that the government had made this decision on the basis of legislation passed by the parliament. "At the sam time, we are listening to people in South Greenland who have been voicing their concerns for years. "We are committed to the course Greenland chose," said Egede. He was Prime Minister when the ban on uranium was implemented in 2021. (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao; Louise Rasmussen)
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US court rejects EPA's bid to relax regulations for coal-fired electricity plants
A?U.S. A federal appeals court rejected Friday the bid by the Environmental Protection Agency to remove Biden-era pollution limits for soot from coal-fired factories and power plants. This was a "setback" for the Trump administrations efforts at deregulatory. Last year, the EPA under Donald Trump asked the court to invalidate its 2024 rule. The agency claimed that it had acted unreasonable by not taking into account costs when setting the standard. The court rejected the petition and left in place the annual limit for fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) of 9 micrograms/cubic meter. The EPA, after initially defending its new rule, now wants to void it on the grounds that the EPA exceeded its statutory powers and acted unreasonable by not considering costs. We reject the petitions for review and motions for vacatur because these arguments are 'feasible. Under Biden, the EPA had stated that tighter limits could prevent more than 800,000. This included 2,000 hospitalizations and 4,500 premature death. The Trump EPA, however, has stated that the '2024 rule would cost "hundreds of million dollars if not billions" to American citizens if it were to be implemented and is based 'not on a complete review of the available science. The EPA said on Friday that it was reviewing the decision. Environmental groups called Trump's attempt to rollback the rule an egregious?retreat away from important public health protections. The Natural Resources Defence Council praised the court's decision. The environmental group stated that while the Trump EPA dragged their feet, millions of Americans continued to breathe unhealthy?levels soot - pollution which'science shows there is no safe level. This decision eliminates all doubt: The science has been clear for a long time, and the law now reflects that. (Reporting and editing by Sanjeev Mglani; Valerie Volcovici and David Shepardson)
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Stocks in the world are falling as a tech sell-off drags down markets
The global equities markets fell on Friday, and are set to decline for the week, as profit-taking drove a saleoff in chip stocks and technology companies, while crude oil dropped?as more tankers left Strait of Hormuz. Wall Street saw all three indexes trade higher, despite choppy trading, as gains in consumer discretionary and healthcare stocks were offset by losses in technology, industrials and energy. S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow were all on course for weekly losses, while Nasdaq was heading for a gain. The chip stocks fell 4.5%, and they were expected to lose 7% this week. This is the biggest weekly drop since March. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.31%. The S&P 500 rose by 0.28%. And the Nasdaq Composite grew by 0.24%. Mark Hackett is the chief market strategist for Nationwide. He said, "It is a combination between a necessary and healthy period after the historic run since March and a drastic rotation away from tech and other things." "Overall, this selloff is modest in the context of things, and I expect that we will resume higher once consolidation ends, since investors are still buying dips, and fundamentals remain strong." Apple's price hikes fueled fears of structural inflation due to AI giants' massive spending and the limited availability of key components. European stocks dropped by nearly 0.9% and technology stocks by 1.54%. MSCI's Asian stock index outside Japan dropped by almost 3%. South Korea's KOSPI dropped as much as 5,8%. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 0.34%, and the loss was expected to be 2% for the week. OIL PRICES DROP SHARPLY Oil?prices fell sharply on Friday as supply concerns eased. This was despite a cargo ship being hit in Oman, on Thursday. Shipping data from LSEG shows that Saudi Aramco, the world's largest refiner, resumed oil -loading at its Ras Tanura Terminal in the Gulf on Friday after a nearly 4-month pause. Brent crude futures dropped 4.24% to 72.07 per barrel. WEAKNESS OF THE YEN The yen was near its lowest level in 40 years against the dollar at 161.62. This is above the 160?level, which many consider to be a line drawn in the sand by Japanese authorities. The euro rose 0.33% to $1.1407, but it was on track for its second consecutive loss against the US dollar. The dollar index slowed but was on track for a second consecutive weekly gain versus peers. The index dropped?0.3% at 101.20. Bond yields were lower in Europe than the U.S. The yield of benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 1.75 basis points, to 4.375%. Meanwhile, the yield of benchmark German Bunds 10-years fell by 0.76 basis point to 2.852%. Spot gold increased 1.5%, to $4.086.29 per ounce. Reporting by Chibuike OGOH in New York, editing by Chizu OMIYA
US diesel refining economics remain firm despite Iran war truce
The?U.S. The?U.S.
The crack spread, which is calculated as the difference in price between U.S. ultra low sulfur diesel futures compared to U.S. crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate Futures, reached $62.84 a bar on Thursday. This was the highest level since June 3.
The resilient diesel?refining economy reflects a cautious approach by traders who are wary about being caught out if tensions erupt again in the Middle East. The blockade of Strait of Hormuz has had a major impact on diesel markets, as it is critical for global supplies of fuel and Middle Eastern crude grades that are well-suited to its production.
Rory Johnston is the founder of the Commodity Context Newsletter. He said, "It's pretty obvious that the?oil tightness at the moment is concentrated on products, not crude. So it's probably a safer option to?play the upside."
Johnston said that the Russian fuel market is tightening due to drone attacks from Ukraine which have damaged refineries in Russia.
DIESEL IS MOST SENSITIVE FOR CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE-EAST
The diesel crack spread has, like the oil market in general, dropped dramatically in recent weeks as a result of progress made by the U.S. in negotiations with Iran in order to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. crack spread on U.S. futures was over $90 per barrel in March, the first month of Iran's war. It was even higher in the physical markets.
Diesel prices and crack spreads have declined much more slowly than crude oil. WTI futures are down about 22% since the beginning of this month. ULSD futures are down just over 9%. While a number stranded vessels have left the Strait of Hormuz over the past few days, tensions are still high after a container vessel was struck near?Oman and the United Nations suspended its efforts to guide ships and seafarers across the waterway. StoneX, a brokerage, wrote Thursday to its clients that diesel inventories were the lowest of all refined products, and therefore most vulnerable to events in the Middle East. Data from the Energy Information Administration shows that U.S. distillate fuel stocks, which are primarily diesel and small amounts heating oil, stood at 106 millions barrels on June 19. This is 12 million barrels less than the five-year mean. (Reporting and editing by Sanjeev Mglani in New York)
(source: Reuters)