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US diesel reaches $4 per gallon amid rising fuel prices in the Middle East

The average retail price of diesel in the United States surpassed $4 a gallons for the first time in almost two years on Tuesday. Prices are expected to continue to rise 'later this week, as the 'U.S. - Israel conflict with Iran drags on. This could cause sticker shock to consumers on everything from furniture to food.

Diesel prices, which are primarily used in manufacturing and for freight, have surged since Iran began to retaliate against U.S.-Israeli strikes by bombing energy infrastructure in the Middle East, and disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – a major global trade route.

According to AAA, the national average price of diesel increased by 14.7 cents on Tuesday, to $4.04 per gallon. This is the largest?daily rise since March 2022 when Russia's invasion in Ukraine upended the global oil market.

GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said, "We could see an average increase to $4.25-4.45/gal over the next few days. But any new developments can push the needle in either direction."

The highest price for U.S. Diesel Futures was $3.45 on Wednesday. This is the highest price since September 2024.

Analysts said that diesel inventories remain tight due to a lack of refining capacity and heavy demand during the harsh winter season in the U.S.

Alex Hodes is the director of StoneX's market strategy. He said that the tightness on the market makes diesel fuel more sensitive to conflict in the Middle East.

Hodes said that the disruption in Middle East crude oil supplies also affects distillate supply disproportionately because crude oil from this region tends be more distillate rich grades.

According to cargo tracking company Vortexa, around 900,000 barrels of diesel per day (bpd), and 350,000 barrels of jet fuel per day (bpd), leave the Gulf. This is equivalent to approximately 10% and 20% of seaborne supplies worldwide, respectively.

Consumers will face higher costs

In tandem with the Middle East crisis, prices of all fuels have risen. This poses a serious risk to President Donald Trump and the Republican Party ahead of November's midterm elections. Voters will be concerned about inflation, as many are struggling to keep pace with rising prices.

Energy economist Philip Verleger stated that "the costs of all products would rise if diesel prices increased?transport costs." He added that food prices could rise if farmers are forced to reduce their plantings due to high diesel costs.

On Monday, the average retail price of gasoline in the United States reached $3 per gallon for the first since November. The gasoline futures price reached $2.54 on Monday, its highest level since July 2024.

(source: Reuters)