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New Zealand prepares for Cyclone Vaianu and North Island evacuations are ordered
On Saturday, a number of New Zealanders were ordered to leave their homes as the North Island prepared for Cyclone Vaianu. Authorities warned that it could cause coastal flooding or landslides. The weather forecaster in the country said that Vaianu was forecast to bring heavy rainfall and winds up to 130 kmh. (80 mph) on Sunday, before passing west of the remote Chatham Islands by Monday. On Saturday, several regions were declared to be in an emergency situation. Authorities ordered evacuations of some areas of Whakatane (population 37,150), located 430 km north of the national capital Wellington. Whakatane District Council published a message on Facebook saying that residents should prepare to be away from home for two days. The storm is expected to cause coastal flooding and landslides in coastal areas. On Friday, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon stated that the cyclone could be devastating and warned those in its path to prepare. Luxon, on X, said: "Check drains for obstructions, keep an eye on your neighbours and prepare yourself for possible power outages." Vaianu conjures up the 'painful memories' of 2023's Cyclone Gabrielle which killed 11 and displaced thousands. It was one of New Zealand’s worst natural disasters of this century.
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Bloomberg News reports that bidders are interested in Rio Tinto’s California boron assets.
Bloomberg News, citing sources, reported that Rio Tinto’s U.S. assets, which?produce boron, the critical mineral, have attracted interest from more than 12 potential bidders. The assets could be valued as high as $2 billion. According to the report, WE Soda and Magris Resources are interested in purchasing Rio Tinto's boron assets in California. They are expected to make Rio Tinto binding offers by June. The report could not be verified immediately. Rio and the involved companies did not immediately respond to our request for comment. Mineral boron is used as an additive to oil and gas drilling, nuclear energy, windmills, ceramics and specialty glass. The U.S. Geological Survey, the Interior Department and the U.S. Geological Survey added Boron to the U.S. Critical Minerals List last year. This was due to a concern over the supply risks and limited substitutes, as well as the heavy 'concentration' of production outside the U.S. Simon Trott's, the Anglo Australian miner's CEO, announced a plan to generate $5 to $10 billion in revenue by 2025 through divestments, productivity growth and a reduction of its structure. Carlos Mendez, Mexico City, and Anil D'Silva edited this report.
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US team has low expectations for Iran talks in Pakistan
On Friday, a U.S. delegation led by Vice President JDVance departed for Islamabad for weekend talks with Iran. Both sides have accused the other of violating agreements made to achieve a temporary ceasefire. White House officials expressed skepticism that the talks would immediately reopen Strait of Hormuz. Iran's leading negotiators cast doubt on the talks by saying they couldn't even begin until they made commitments about Lebanon and sanctions. Abbas Araqchi, Foreign Minister of Iran and Speaker of the Iranian Parliament,?Mohammad?Baqer Qalibaf said that Israel's attack on Hezbollah must be included in a ceasefire and that Iranian assets that have been blocked by sanctions should be released. The Saturday talks were not expected to be impacted by these demands, as it would have been the first high-level meeting of the U.S. with Iran since the Islamic Revolution in 1979 that started nearly half a century of antagonistic relations. Vance, President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner's son-in law were on their way to Islamabad when the Pakistani capital, Islamabad was in an unprecedented lockdown. Thousands of paramilitary and army personnel were deployed throughout the city. Pakistan wants to establish itself as a mediator and also project stability. Iran is still capable of striking its neighbors, despite Trump’s declarations of success. It can also disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The war caused the largest?oil shock in history, damaging Gulf energy output and leading to inflation worries, warnings about food security and the risk a global economic recession. Trump is under pressure to find a way out of the conflict ahead of the midterm elections in November. He announced the ceasefire just hours before an arbitrary deadline, after which he threatened to destroy Iran’s civilization. WHITE HOUSE - 'SKEPTICAL OVER TALKS' Iran is wary about Witkoff, Kushner and earlier talks mediated through Oman, just days before U.S. & Israel launched a bombing campaign that killed senior officials including the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Vance is a foreign policy novice with limited experience. He has also been skeptical of U.S. intervention overseas. Vance stated that before leaving Washington on Friday morning, the U.S. "would extend the open hand," but would have to determine if the Iranians were willing to negotiate. Two White House officials who spoke under condition of anonymity about administration deliberations said that the mood in the White House before the talks began was sceptical. Officials said that Trump was now accepting the fact that it would be difficult to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even if there were some success in the talks. They said that the U.S. President was also uncertain if the Iranian delegation had the authority necessary to negotiate meaningfully, and that he believed Iranians view Araqchi's diplomacy as weak. Iran insists on a ceasefire that includes Lebanon where Israel is fighting Hezbollah (an Iranian ally). Iran and Pakistan, the mediators, have both said that they understand that Israel's war in Lebanon will also be included in this temporary pause. Israel refused to stop its attack at first, but on Wednesday it launched a series of attacks that killed more than 250 people. In a Thursday phone call, Trump told Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to ease up on the attacks against Hezbollah. A source familiar with this matter confirmed that. Netanyahu agreed to the talks that will be held next week in Washington. MAJOR GAPS Trump said that an Iranian proposal was the basis of the talks in Islamabad. However, a 10-point plan presented by?Tehran has little overlap with the 15-point 'plan Washington had previously proposed, indicating there will be significant gaps to bridge. Iran's proposals include demands for new concessions. These include the lifting of sanctions which have crippled the Iranian economy for many years. It also includes the recognition of the authority of Iran over the Strait of Hormuz where it wants to collect transit fees and control access. This would be a major shift in regional power. Washington wants Tehran's stockpiles enriched uranium to be disposed of, renounce further?enrichment and give up missiles, as well as ending support for regional allies. A person familiar with this matter said that the U.S. delegation is likely to demand the release of U.S. nationals detained in Iran. At least six Americans, including journalist Reza Vaizadeh and jeweler Kamran Hekmati, are being held in Iran. Barbara Leaf, former career diplomat who served as Assistant Secretary of State overseeing the Middle East under the administration of the?former president Joe Biden, stated that there is a "very large risk" of an escalation between the U.S. She said that the Trump administration will be very aware of pressures from disruptions in energy supplies and rising gas prices in the United States. Leaf said that "time is not on administration's side." "That is what gives (the Iranian government) the high level of confidence it displays." It's certainly not a false confidence. It's not entirely a false swagger."
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Italy sets new restrictions on Sinochem to resolve Pirelli governance dispute
Italy has placed new restrictions on Sinochem in an effort to stop a slap on Pirelli's governance, according to people familiar with the matter. Pirelli's largest shareholders Sinochem, a Chinese state-owned company, with 34% of the shares, and Camfin (the investment vehicle of Marco Tronchetti Provera as Executive Vice President), with 26% of the shares, have been involved in a long-running dispute. Tensions grew ahead of the new U.S. regulations that would restrict the use of "Chinese" technologies in the automobile sector. Both Pirelli & Camfin called for "curbs" on Sinochem's ownership, stating that this would complicate Pirelli expansion plans in 'the United States', a critical market for their premium tyre business. Sources who asked not to be identified said that under a decree passed by the Italian cabinet but not made public on Thursday, Sinochem had the right to submit a list for the renewal of Pirelli's board of directors, consisting of a maximum three members. Two of them should be independent. The board of Pirelli currently has 15 members. Eight of them are from its Chinese investor. Sources said that Sinochem board members would not be allowed to hold top corporate positions such as chief executive or chairman, but there are no restrictions on their nationality. Sinochem and Pirelli both declined to comment. Italy issued a first set of prescriptions to limit Sinochem’s influence over Pirelli in June 2023, stating that Sinochem should not exert any influence over the group. Sources said that these curbs will remain in place. Reporting by Giuseppe Fonte and Giulio Pieovaccari, edited by Gavin Jones.
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Americans give economy record low marks, a sign of doom for Republicans
Americans have a sour view of the U.S. Economy to a level 'never seen before. The stiffest inflation for four years has exacerbated the political risk facing President Donald Trump. Some administration officials are concerned that he is focusing on the affordability issues for voters while he focuses on the war on Iran. Price increases are a major issue for U.S. citizens. The latest inflationary surge is causing concern among White House officials who worry about the Republican Party's chances in the upcoming midterm elections. Republican lawmakers and senior White House staff have been urging Trump for months to focus on the economy. This is the number one concern of voters. Trump, on the other hand, has been unable to demonstrate that he understands Americans' concerns and has declared victory against inflation despite data that shows otherwise. The Labor Department released data on Friday showing that inflation rose in March, the first month of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran which began on February 28. This resulted in Tehran blocking a fifth of world oil supplies from flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the resulting spike in crude oil costs drove an unprecedented increase in gasoline prices across the U.S. This 'pushed headline inflation to its highest level since June 2022, when the post COVID pandemic surge in price that devastated former President Joe Biden’s political prospects reached its peak. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index, which is a benchmark for the state of the economy, fell to a new record low in early April. In a press release, survey director Joanne Hsu stated that "demographic groups of all ages, income levels, and political parties have experienced a decline in their sentiment. This reflects the widespread nature of the fall this month." Not only Trump's Democrats critics, but also other Democrats gave low grades to the current state of the economy and its future prospects. Self-identified Republicans showed the biggest drop in sentiment scores, with their score nearing its lowest level since Trump's return to office after regaining the White House in January 2025. Trump had won back the White House by promising to lower high prices that plagued Biden for most of his tenure. Some top Trump officials, such as White House Chief Staff Susie Wiles have grown increasingly concerned that not enough effort is being made to bring down high prices. Wiles privately asked advisers to be more explicit about the economic and political downsides the war. A White House official said this week, under condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive discussions. Public opinion polling, beyond the University of Michigan survey, shows Americans losing faith in Trump's economic management. This, according to political analysts, could harm?his Republican Party, as it fights to maintain a slim majority in Congress during the November midterm elections. The White House tried to divert attention from the high price of gasoline by releasing a statement on Friday. The price of dairy, eggs, beef, prescription drugs and other essentials is falling or staying the same thanks to President Trump’s policies. Trump often cites the fact that food prices have remained unchanged in the past month, and that egg prices are down 45% over the last 12 months, the biggest drop ever. The economists are concerned that if energy costs remain high for a long time, they could feed into an inflationary breakout. Diesel fuel prices that are now within 20 cents of their previous record high could be passed on to consumers as higher food prices.
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Analysts say that the shock of the Iran war will cause the market to go into deficit by 2026.
Analysts predict that the sharp drop in?global production due to the Iran War will cause the oil market to experience a deficit this year. This is a dramatic change from previous forecasts, which predicted a comfortable supply. The conflict that began on February 28th with U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran has effectively stopped oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This passageway accounts for about one fifth of global consumption. Attacks on energy infrastructure and production shutdowns have also severely reduced output. Eight analysts polled predict that oil demand will exceed supply by an average of 750,000 barrels a day this year. In a similar poll conducted in September, a 1,63 million bpd excess was predicted for 2026. This was primarily due to OPEC+'s decision to unwind some of their output cuts and the strong production of other producers such as the U.S. Brazil and Guyana. According to the International Energy Agency, the war has reduced?oil supplies by approximately 11 million bpd at the end of march. In a note dated April 9, ANZ Bank estimated that around 9 million bpd crude?supply was effectively eliminated. According to the IEA, global oil supply in January was 106.6 million bpd. Analysts in the survey said that these immediate shocks will translate into an annual average loss of production of 2,13 million?bpd. Analysts expect the market's steepest deficit to occur in the second quarter, averaging 3 million bpd. Then the fourth quarter will see a return to a surplus of around 1.4 million. Analysts warn that the projected deficits may increase depending on how long the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. The flow of goods through the Strait remains constrained. Traders have reported no signs that shipments will resume in full force since Tuesday's ceasefire announcement. Vikas Dwivedi is a global energy strategist for Macquarie Group. He estimates that 136 million barrels (of crude oil and other products) are still stuck in the Gulf as a result of the conflict. It will take some time to clear up the backlog. Even though the ceasefire has been declared, many?shippers are still facing challenges. There have been reports that Iran plans to charge fees for ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Dwivedi stated that "issues include insurance, and the risk (of) violating sanctions by transacting with Iran when tolls are being paid." Expect bumpy ride when restoring production Last month, analysts raised their Brent price forecasts for '2026 by about 30% to $82.85 per barrel. Oil prices have risen by around 50% due to the war. It will take several months to restore oil production levels prior to the conflict, depending on damage sustained by oilfields in attacks and shutdowns and how easily shipping can flow through Hormuz. Analysts at ANZ say that even under a 'constructive security scenario,' output will only partially recover in the short term. Around 2 to 3 million bpd could return in the first quarter as export flows resume, and 2 to 3.5 millions bpd - or more - may come back in the second quarter. They said that despite the fact that recovery will not be easy, it is likely to be hampered by operational friction, damaged infrastructure, and export bottlenecks. ANZ also said that there is a possibility of around 1 to 2 million bpd capacity being permanently lost or restricted even after the war. This would lead to a tighter and more volatile market. (Reporting and editing by Nia William; Anjana Anil and Kavya Balaraman)
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Vale, a Brazilian company, will build a processing plant for iron ore that will focus on tailings
Vale, a Brazilian mining company, announced on Friday that it will start building a processing plant for waste rock and tailings in the southeastern state of 'Minas Gerais this year. The plant will be able to produce 2 million metric?tons per year and is expected to start operations in the next year. It is part of?Vale’s goal to reuse previously discarded materials. First reported the plan. Vale is able to extract iron ore commercially from waste rock and tailings due to the technological advancements that have transformed a previously uneconomical process. The plant is part a project that aims to demolish a tailings?dam?in Minas Gerais. Vale, the largest iron ore producer in the world, has more than doubled last year's production of iron ore that is derived from waste rock and tailings. Around 80% of this?volume was produced in Minas Gerais. By 2030, the company anticipates that?10% of its annual?iron ore production will be derived from reclaimed materials.
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Weekly gain on gold heads, US-Iran truce at the forefront
The gold price held steady but was headed 'for a gain for the week as the U.S. Dollar weakened after 'the iran truce. Market participants continue to assess whether it will last and what its implications are for interest rates. By 1:40 pm, spot gold was steady at $4.761.79 an ounce. ET (1740 GMT). This week, it has gained almost 2%. U.S. Gold Futures closed 0.6% lower, at $4,787.40. Gold buyers are carefully reclaiming narrative this week, with higher lows each day. The tentative ceasefire is helping. "There will be a major battle ahead of $5,000. A break above that level could reignite the bull market," independent metals traders Tai Wong stated. The 'ceasefire', which has been in place for two days, has stopped a U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran. However it has not eased the 'blockade of Strait of Hormuz nor quellen a parallel conflict that has broken out between Israel and Hezbollah-allies of Iran located in Lebanon. David Meger is director of metals at High Ridge Futures. Gold priced in greenbacks was cheaper for those who hold other currencies. The data showed that U.S. consumers prices rose the most since?nearly 4 years in March, as oil prices rose and tariffs continued to be passed through. A persistently high level of inflation restricts central banks' ability cut interest rates. Although bullion can be used as a hedge to protect against inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, its appeal diminishes when rates are high due to the lack of yield. Gold demand has also increased in India this week, ahead of an important?festival. However, high prices have dampened the mood, while premiums in China have narrowed. Silver spot rose by 1.6% per ounce to $76.26, platinum dropped 2.3% to 2,053.81, while palladium also fell 1.9% to $1,527.44. All three metals are expected to post gains this week. Ashitha Shivprasad, reporting from Bengaluru. Niall Williams and Alan Barona edited the article.
Fuel prices are rising as the Iran War drives up fuel costs.
Pat Ouedraogo, a Boston resident, has reduced his long-distance travels. Skyler Burke is a law student who drives extra miles in order to avoid the more expensive gasoline stations closer to her home. David Wright, an auto broker in Houston, has converted his gas-guzzling racing car into a purely electric?vehicle. Many motorists in the United States are experiencing similar struggles as the Iran War is driving fuel prices to record levels. Experts in the energy market have referred to the six-week war as the worst disruption of oil supply ever, as major production plants have been damaged and a vital shipping route has been effectively closed.
Ouedraogo, who was filling up his Nissan SUV with gasoline at a Shell gas station charging $4.99 per gallon, said: "You feel powerless in this situation." GasBuddy data showed that the average U.S. gasoline price was $4.16 per gallon, and diesel at $5.67. This is the highest amount consumers have paid for fuel ahead of summer peak travel since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 roiled the global energy markets.
GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan stated that these prices translated into a $10.4 billion increase in U.S. gas and diesel expenditures this year when compared to the same period March 1-April 10, last year.
Eddie Esquivel is a Houston-based trucker. The surge in diesel prices has translated to a near-doubling his weekly expenses from $800-$900 prior to the war.
These prices are really high. Diesel was $2.50 a gallon. Esquivel told a group of people at a QuikTrip station in South Houston that the price could reach $6.
Esquivel stated, "You have truck payments to make,?you need to buy tires and do oil changes. You also have a family." This is killing us.
PUMP PRICES ARE NOW A PART OF POLITICAL DISTURBANCES Across the globe, consumers pay a high price for fuel, due to the blockade of Iran's Strait of Hormuz, which has "starved" Asian and European markets of Middle Eastern Oil. Pump prices are of particular importance to American politics because the United States is by far the largest consumer of fuel in the world. In November 2024, the economic hardships experienced by'motorists because of Russia's continued war in Ukraine?had played a significant role in their decision to vote for Donald Trump. Just months before the midterm elections in the U.S. in November, Americans have sunk to new lows in their approval of Trump. They are unable to reconcile his campaign promises to lower energy costs with the sharpest rise in consumer prices since nearly four years, which occurred in March, due to the record increase in fuel prices.
Kari DyLong, who was filling her pickup truck in a service station near Denver, said: "I will not vote for the Republican party or anyone associated with this president at all." According to the U.S. Government, even if Trump decides to end U.S. involvement in?Iran and the gasoline prices remain high, they will likely continue to be so. The United States and Iran will hold talks on Saturday in Pakistan to reach a permanent ceasefire agreement after the fragile two-week truce that was announced earlier this week. Analysts said this week that even if a ceasefire agreement is reached, fuel and oil prices will not return to pre-war levels in a short time. They said that U.S. customers will continue to pay for the most expensive fuel prices or flights in recent years, whether they fill up their cars or fly during the summer.
Wei Ren Gagan, an analyst with Rystad, said: "We expect that a persistent?geopolitical-risk premium will remain on the market."
Prices are unlikely to return to their pre-war level immediately, but will likely soften over time and remain higher than the pre-war benchmarks.
According to Macquarie analysts, the war has caused damage to Middle Eastern refinery capacity that is equivalent to 2 million barrels of oil per day.
DEMAND DESTRUCTION
The U.S. government's data has begun to show signs of demand destruction caused by high gas prices. In the week leading up to Easter, gasoline demand in the United States was just 8,6 million barrels per day. This is 9% less than last year.
Tim 'Jugmans is the financial chief of EZCORP, a pawn lender. He said that pawn loans have increased by 9% since gas prices surpassed $4 per gallon.
DyLong is a Denver resident who has cut back on her personal weekend excursions due to the decline in demand. She has a 40 minute commute to work as a craft brewer's sales manager.
She said, "I do things more at home now and don't venture out as I have to spend more of my pay on gas to get to work."
(source: Reuters)