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ASIA GOLD-Higher prices in India are affecting retail demand; China's gold premiums are widening
This week, India's gold prices increased further. In China, dealers raised premiums over international rates to rekindle retail interest after the holidays. Indian dealers have charged a premium this week Up to $6 per ounce above official domestic prices, inclusive of 6% import duties and 3% sales taxes. This is below the last week's up to $15 premium. On?the day the domestic gold price was trading at around 138,000 rupees for 10 grams, which is not far off from the record high of 140,465 rupees. The rising prices are affecting the jewellery market. "Retail buyers are delaying purchases," Ashok Jain, owner of Mumbai-based wholesaler Chenaji Narsinghji said. A Mumbai-based dealer of bullion with a private banking company said that jewellers reported?very low footfall' and "only marginal demand" for coins and bars. Bullion traded in top consumer China at a premium of up to $21 per ounce over the global benchmark spot price This week. This compares to the $3 per ounce premium charged last week. Bernard Sin, Regional Director, Greater China at MKS PAMP, said: "Physical Gold demand in Asia is showing renewed strength, especially in China and Hong Kong. This is due to tighter supply and retail interest after the holiday season." The Chinese central bank’s "accumulation" continues to support the market and reinforce the perception that Chinese demand is both cyclical and structural. In Singapore Gold was sold for a premium of between $1.20 and $2.50 per ounce. In Hong Kong, gold Bullion is traded in Japan at a premium of $2 to $3. Discounts of up to $6 or a premium of $1 are available. The benchmark spot gold price for international markets fell on the day but was headed to a weekly increase of over 3%. "We estimate jewelry?demand dropped by double-digits in 2025, and we suspect that there?will only be a tepid recover at best in the years 2026 and 2027," HSBC's James Steel stated. He added that "with prices over $4,000/oz the demand has further eroded." Even a significant retracement of prices may not be enough to stimulate significantly more demand, as the trend towards lighter items and substitution to platinum jewellery is likely to continue. $1 = 90,1250 Indian Rupees (Reporting from Ishaan Jadhav and Rajendra Jadhav respectively in Bengaluru and Mumbai; Additional reporting provided by Swati verma; Editing done by Sumana Niandy).
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Coal India's Bharat Coking Coal unit's IPO is fully subscribed on the first day of auction
Bharat coal Coking Ltd (BCCL)'s $118.65m IPO was fully subscribed at the opening of bidding Friday. Exchange data shows that the Coal 'India' unit, which is the country’s largest producer and exporter of coking coal, a vital steelmaking fuel, received bids of 913.5 millions shares at 11:24 am IST, against 346.9million shares offered. BCCL is going public because India, which is the second largest crude steel producer in the world, wants to?reduce its import dependency amid increasing demand and efforts?to secure?new sources of supply. Coal India has decided to sell all of the shares, which is equivalent to a 10% stake. Retail investors bid on 504.1 million shares -?about 3.64x the number of shares allotted to them. The offer comes at a time when the Indian government is working on divestment strategies to unlock the value of state-owned companies, with public sector energy and banks leading the way. Data compiled by LSEG revealed that India would be the second largest?primary equity issuance markets in 2025. It will raise $21.8 billion in 367 deals. According to BCCL's prospectus, its revenue fell by 3% in fiscal 2025 to 138.03 bn rupees and its net profit dropped by 20% to 12.4 bn rupees. The company operates mines in Jharkhand, West Bengal and other eastern Indian states. As of March 31, 2025, the company had total reserves of approximately 1,495.4 millions?tonnes. ICICI Securities and IDBI Capital Markets and Securities will be the book-running leading managers of the offering.
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Gold drops as US jobs data weighs ahead of commodity index adjustments
As commodity index readjustments, and a strong dollar kept the pressure on prices. Investors were positioning themselves ahead of important U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Data due later that day. As of 0536 GMT spot gold was down 0.2% to $4,469.03 an ounce, but it still had a weekly gain of more than 3%. Bullion reached a record-high of $4,549.71 in December. U.S. gold futures for delivery in February rose 0.4% to $4 477.70. The U.S. Dollar strength is a major driver of gold prices at the moment, ahead of the NFP data, said Ross Norman, an independent analyst. The U.S. Dollar advanced to a near-month high as traders prepared for the U.S. Supreme Court's decision on President Donald Trump using emergency tariff powers. The stronger dollar makes bullion priced in greenbacks more expensive for other currency holders. The economists predict modest growth in non-farm payrolls of 60,000 jobs and a slight decrease in unemployment to 4.5%, down from 4.6%. The Bloomberg Commodity Index Rebalancing, a periodic adjustment to commodity weightings in order to align the index with market conditions, begins this week. "At the start of the new year, several indexes reweight the amount of gold and precious metals in their portfolios. Norman said that, although there is a certain amount of weakness in the index rebalancing process, things are still largely positive. HSBC has said that gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by the first half 2026 due to rising geopolitical risk and debt. In a low interest rate environment, and during economic uncertainty, non-yielding investments tend to perform well. Silver spot fell 0.1%, to $76.83 an ounce, after reaching a record high of $83.62 per ounce on December 29. The white metal was expected to post a weekly gain of more than 6%. After reaching a record $2,478.50 per ounce on Monday, spot platinum fell 0.8% to $2250.30. Palladium remained steady at $1,785.25 an ounce. Both metals are also set to make weekly gains. Ishaan Nandy reported; Sumana Nandy and Ronojoy Mazumdar edited. Harikrishnan Nair was the editor.
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Fuel oil prices in Asia are higher than those in the West as more Venezuelan oil is diverted to the US
Friday, the premium for high-sulfur fuel oil in Asia over the West reached its highest level in eight months as traders expect more Venezuelan crude oil and fuel oil to be shipped to the United States than to Asia in the coming months. LSEG data show that the East-West 380cst HSFO swap for the first month of 2026, a measure used to compare HSFO prices in Asia, Europe and America, has risen above $27 a barrel, a price last seen in May 2025. This value has nearly doubled since the beginning of 2026. It is more profitable for traders to send fuel oil to Asia when the price differential widens. Last week, Donald Trump, the U.S. president, seized Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and declared that the U.S. would control Venezuela's oil industry. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the U.S. will refine and sell 50 million barrels Venezuelan crude on Wednesday, while continuing to seize Venezuelan linked tankers. BEARISH US OUTLOOK Royston Huan is a fuel oil and feedstocks expert at Energy Aspects. He said that the increased availability of Canadian heavy crude for U.S. locations would add to the pressure on the U.S. Gulf Coast's HSFO market. Analysts at a U.S. refining company said that traders increased the East-West spread as U.S. market sentiment has turned negative due to the possibility of diverting more Venezuelan fuel and crude oil with high sulphur content into U.S. refueling stations, thus reducing the supply for Asia. VOLATILITY OF ASIAN RESIDENTS The volatility of HSFO future prices has been caused by the uncertain outlook for Venezuelan crude oil supplies in Asia. Singapore's balance-January/February spread flipped into backwardation ?on Wednesday, before swinging back into contango on Thursday. Backwardation is a market structure in which the current prices are higher than the future ones. This indicates a tighter supply. Contango is the opposite. According to LSEG and market sources, the spread flipped backwardation in early trading on?Friday. Some traders say that for now, the fuel oil price gains in Asia will be tempered by the large inventories in tanks on land and aboard ships. Due to Western sanctions, Chinese independent refiners are a major outlet for Venezuelan crude oil and fuel oil. Emril Jamil is a senior oil analyst with LSEG. He said that the loss of Venezuelan feedstock at a low price will affect refiners’ profitability and force them to reduce their refining rates or find alternative residual feedstocks.
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Stocks wait for the jobs report and tariff ruling
The dollar strengthened on Friday ahead of an important jobs report. Investors braced themselves for the Supreme Court's ruling on the legality President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs, which shocked markets last year. The smoldering geopolitical tensions around the world have boosted oil prices as well as?as?defence stock, and traders will continue to weigh developments in Venezuela after U.S. troops captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro Saturday. The possible U.S. Supreme Court decision on tariffs will dominate Friday's news. If the tariffs are removed, it could have a negative impact on government revenue. This would push Treasury yields up and create new waves of volatility in markets. Kyle Rodda is a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. He said that the Supreme Court's ruling on Friday was the "real wildcard". If the courts overturned U.S. Tariffs, this would be a huge boost for the market. "A constraint could be that the Trump administration will not give in to the demands of the courts, and instead look for other ways to maintain levies." Traders are still hesitant to make bets before the events that will move the markets. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fluctuated between gains and losses, and was down by 0.2%. This is just below its record high from earlier in the week. European stock futures increased by 0.34%. Fast Retailing (the operator of Uniqlo) reported strong earnings, and the Nikkei gained 1.5%. S&P 500 closed flat on Thursday. However, the aerospace and defense index reached a record high. European defence shares also hit a new high. S&P futures were unchanged in the?Asian hour. U.S. JOBS RELEASE ON DECK Data from the United States on Thursday revealed that demand for labor remained low, and businesses were able to squeeze more out of their existing workforce. This has heightened interest in Friday's report on employment. The report will likely show that the labour markets are stuck in a mode economists and policymakers call "no fire, no hire". A survey by economists estimates that nonfarm payrolls increased by 60,000 last month, after recovering by 64,000 jobs in November. The economy lost 105,000 positions in October. This was the biggest drop in almost five years. Most of these were federal employees who deferred their buyouts. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates at least twice this year. However, a divided Federal Reserve indicated only one rate cut in December. At its meeting in this month, the Fed is expected keep rates unchanged. Rodda said that the markets would need to be sparked by a large surprise on the downside from the jobs report. A solid print will reassure investors that U.S. employment is in good shape and a small miss will only increase the chances of further rate cuts. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes was 4.177%, up 4.5 basis points from the previous session. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. unit against six other currencies) hovered at a month-high against major currencies. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Thursday that he expected Trump will make a quick decision on who will replace Jerome Powell when the Fed chairman's term expires in May. Markets expect the president to name a dovish nominee. The oil prices continued to rise?on Friday. They were near their two-week high, as investors worried about the situation in Venezuela, and also worried about supply from Russia, Iraq, and Iran. Two sources said that foreign embassies are arranging visits to Venezuela for next week, which will include representatives of U.S. oil companies and European oil firms. This follows Washington's announcement about a $2 billion deal for oil and the supply to Venezuela of U.S. goods. Brent futures increased 0.8%, to $62.49 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil also rose 0.8%, to $58.25. (Reporting and editing by Michael Perry, Shri Navaratnam and Ankur Banerjee from Singapore)
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Can the US price Greenland?
According to a White House spokesperson, despite Denmark's repeated assertion that Greenland was not for sale the U.S. president Donald Trump and his staff are "talking" about a possible?purchase. Even as a hypothetical thought experiment, assuming the presence of a seller willing to sell an autonomous territory like Greenland, the discussion quickly encounters imponderables. For example, how could a meaningful price be established? Nick Kounis is the chief economist at Dutch ABN AMRO Bank. He noted that there was no agreed framework for valuing nations. Finding historical benchmarks of fair value is also difficult. In 1946, the U.S. made an offer to Denmark of $100 million for the mineral-rich Arctic Island. The offer was turned down. This is about $1.6 billion in today's dollars. This figure is abysmally low, but it's not useful as a benchmark because the U.S. economy and the Danish economy have grown massively in the eight decades that followed. It does not reflect the relative "value" Greenland or its resources will have in the 2020s global economic environment. The purchase of Alaska by Russia in 1867 for $7.2 million and the $15-million purchase made by America of Louisiana in 1803, are not good precedents. The first and most obvious is that both France as well as Russia chose to sell. While it's clear that these figures would be much higher today, the amount of money would vary depending on factors such as inflation, land price appreciation, and local economic growth. What if it was a company? How about using a similar method to a valuation of an acquisition based on income that the target can generate? Still tricky. Denmark's central bank estimated that Greenland's fishing based Gross Domestic Products (GDP) would be $3.6 billion by 2023, about one tenth the size of Iceland's smaller Arctic neighbour. What multiple would you use to arrive at a price, even if this was the starting point of a valuation? What is your explanation for the fact the Danish subsidy covers about half of Greenland’s budget? It funds hospitals, schools, and infrastructure in the sparsely-populated territory. Trump denied that the U.S. was interested in Greenland's energy and mineral assets. However, it was reported last October by the media that his administration had held discussions regarding a stake purchase of Critical Metals Corp., a company looking to build Greenland’s largest rare earths project. Greenland has estimated mineral and energy resources worth hundreds of billions or more dollars. The entire island has not yet been subjected to proper geological studies, but a survey conducted in 2023 revealed that 25 of 34 minerals classified as "critical raw materials" (by the European Commission) were present. Companies in the mining and energy industries have been putting a price on assets all over the world for a long time. At least two complications arise in this case. Greenland has banned the extraction of natural gas and oil for environmental reasons. The development?of its mining industry is also hampered by red tape and opposition. Does the buyer want a discount because of a political restriction? How much discount would you like to get? Second, it is crucial that mining and energy deals do not involve the transfer of sovereignty. In this case, the Greenlandic Inuits assert their ownership rights. "Because of the intangible notions such as Indigenous peoples' history and culture, you can't price it - there's no way to do so," said Andreas Osthagen. Research Director for Arctic and Ocean Politics, Fridtjof Nansen Institute, Norway. It's a pity that this notion is absurd. The Trump administration has said that all options, including military action, are on the table to gain control over a territory it considers vital to U.S. security. It already has a limited military presence in the area. The meeting between U.S. Secretary Marco Rubio and Danish leaders scheduled for next week could provide further insight into the U.S. strategy on Greenland. ABN AMRO’s Kounis suggested that Trump may be following a similar strategy to other situations, such as trade tariff talks where an extreme scenario was put forward to soften the other side. Kounis stated that if the U.S. views an agreement settlement as beneficial to its military and economy, "part of it might be about getting leverage in future negotiations".
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A one-two-payrolls tariff sucker-punch?
Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets Investors hold their nerves as they await the U.S. Jobs Report that is expected to show a sluggish labour market, but one that has not yet collapsed. Meanwhile, markets prepare for a Supreme Court ruling regarding President Donald Trump's tariffs on global products. The 'prospect' of the ruling, that could be announced as soon as Friday, left the markets in a cautious mood. The U.S. Dollar stood tall, and stocks struggled to find direction. Oil prices are at their highest level in two weeks due to geopolitical tensions, but global defence stocks have been boosted by Trump's call for an increase in defence spending. The court decision will likely grab the spotlight and could spark a bout of severe volatility, after the sweeping tariffs shocked global markets last year. It's still notable that the markets were able to quickly recover from the initial shock of the tariffs and move higher. After the November 'arguments,' both conservative and liberal justices voiced doubts about whether Trump had the authority to levy tariffs under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. A potential battle over the possibility of a $150 billion refund from the U.S. for importer duties paid already looms. The question is what will happen to the numerous trade agreements that were announced with great fanfare in the past year. The December employment report will give the markets the most accurate picture of the U.S. labor market, but it may not be sufficient to calm investor concerns about interest rates this year. The markets are pricing in two rate cuts this year, while a Federal Reserve deeply divided indicated only one. The Fed is expected to hold steady on rates later this month, according to traders. The report will shed light on the "no-hire, no-fire" mode that economists and policymakers call. A mega deal is brewing in the corporate world after Rio Tinto announced that it was in negotiations with Glencore to create the largest mining company on the planet, valued at nearly $207 billion. Rio Tinto and Glencore both said that they expected a buyout of all shares of Glencore, but very little information was disclosed. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Friday. Economic events: German retail sales for November and German trade data for December
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Oil prices rise on worries about disruptions of supply in Venezuela and Iran
On 'Friday, oil prices rose for the second consecutive day, resulting in their third weekly increase, due to uncertainty over future supply from Venezuela and Iranian unrest. Brent futures gained 40 cents or 0.7% to $62.39 a barrel at 0400 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), however, rose 35 cents or 0.6% to $58.11. Brent will rise 2.7% this week while WTI is up 1.4%. "Bottlenecks of the flow of sanctioned barley and steady demand signals seem to counter the backdrop for an oversupplied in 2026 at least for now," said Priyanka Sahdeva, Senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. "Escalation of geopolitical tension adds to current momentum in oil price." Prices rose after U.S. President Donald Trump's seizure last week of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his claims that the U.S. would control the South American nation's oil industry. Concerns about supply have been heightened by civil unrest in Iran, a major Middle Eastern oil producer. Also, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has spread to Russian oil exports. Tina Teng is a market strategist with Moomoo ANZ. She said that the 'price surge' was primarily caused by Trump's claim of control over Venezuela's oil export. This could have led to a price hike from previously discounted sales. Sources familiar with the situation say that oil major Chevron, trading houses Vitol, Trafigura and others are competing to secure deals from the U.S. Government to export Venezuelan crude oil. Trump demanded Venezuela grant the U.S. access to all of its oil sectors just days after Maduro was captured on Saturday. ?U.S. Officials have stated that Washington will continue to control the oil revenues and sales of the country indefinitely. Two sources claim that the companies are disputing the initial deals for the marketing of up to 50,000,000 barrels of oil which the state-run oil firm?PDVSA accumulated during a severe embargo involving four tanker seizure. The market will focus on how Venezuelan oil stored in storage is sold and delivered in the next few days. Teng said that if there is no limit on sales, the oversupply issue could continue to be a problem. Haitong Futures reported in a Friday report that oil prices surged following several days of relative calm, partially correcting an earlier?neglect' of geopolitical risk. Internet monitoring group NetBlocks reported a nationwide internet blackout in Iran on Thursday. Protests over economic hardships were continuing in Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, and other parts of the country. Haitong Futures stated that global inventories continue to rise, but oversupply is the main factor that could limit the gains. Haitong Futures said that unless risks in the region of Iran escalate, the recovery is likely to be limited and difficult to sustain. Sam Li reported from Beijing, and Jeslyn Lerh edited the report in Singapore.
The US Senate votes on Trump's Venezuela policy
On Thursday, the U.S. Senate will consider a measure that would prevent President Donald Trump from taking any further military action against Venezuela without congressional approval. Supporters of the resolution said it could pass with a close vote.
After the U.S. military captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro during a dramatic raid on Caracas in Caracas on September 29, senators will vote to approve the latest of a series war power measures that have been introduced by the Obama administration since it increased military pressure against the country through attacks on boats near its coast.
Republicans blocked all the measures but the final vote was only 49-51. Two senators from Trump’s party voted with Democrats to support a resolution back in November. At the time, administration officials told lawmakers that they did not intend to strike Venezuelan territory or bring about a regime change.
Several lawmakers, including Democrats publicly and Republicans behind-the-scenes, have accused the Maduro administration of misleading Congress after his capture.
"I spoke with at least two Republicans who didn't vote for this resolution before, who are now thinking about it," said Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, who is cosponsoring the measure, in a press conference held ahead of the vote.
Paul spoke alongside Democratic Senator Tim Kaine, a leader of the resolution.
He didn't identify the Republicans. Trump's party has a majority of 53 seats in the Senate.
HURDS AHEAD
Senate passage would be an important victory for lawmakers who have been pressing the war power issue.
To become law, the resolution must pass both the Republican-led House of Representatives, and also survive an anticipated Trump veto. This would require a two-thirds majority in each chamber.
The lawmakers admitted the obstacles, but stated that some Republicans might?be hesitant of a long and costly campaign to change Venezuela's regime. Trump said Wednesday on his Truth Social website that he wants the U.S. Military budget to go up to $1.5 trillion, from $1 trillion.
Kaine pointed out that U.S. troops have been attacking Venezuelan boats since months. He also mentioned Trump's claim that the U.S. will "run" Venezuela, as well as the seizure of Venezuelan oil. Kaine said: "This is not a?surgical arrest operation by any means."
According to the U.S. Constitution, any president must obtain Congress' consent before launching a long-term military operation.
Senators opposing the "war powers" resolution claim that the arrest of Maduro was a law-enforcement operation and not a military one. Maduro is facing trial before a U.S. Court on charges of drug trafficking and gun possession. He has pleaded innocent. Trump, they say, is also within his rights to take limited military action if he feels it's necessary for national safety.
(source: Reuters)