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IMF raises Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 4% due to rising oil production

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its economic growth forecasts for Saudi Arabia in 2025 on Tuesday, due to an earlier than expected unwinding of production cuts.

The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook raised its forecast of Saudi Arabia's growth to 4% in 2025 from the 3% projected in April. The growth rate for 2026 has also been revised up to 4%.

The IMF stated that the IMF expected the growth of the Middle East and Central Asia to be boosted by the acceleration of growth in oil and gas exporters in the Gulf States, as the effects of disruptions in oil production and shipping and the impact of ongoing conflict dissipated.

The regional GDP is now projected to grow by 3.5% in 2025. This compares with the 3% predicted in April and an increase of 2.6% from last year. In 2026, GDP is expected to grow by 3.8%.

The IMF stated that "this reflects largely the developments in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, notably Saudi Arabia where the unwinding in oil production was faster than anticipated, and Egypt where the outcome in the first half 2025 was better.

Saudi Arabia is the top crude oil exporter in the world. It has a massive economic transformation plan called Vision 2030. The goal of the plan is to diversify the revenue sources and move away from hydrocarbons, while increasing non-oil growth. The country is investing heavily in tourism, manufacturing and advanced technology.

Voluntary oil production cuts, combined with lower oil prices, have resulted in a decline in revenues and a widening of fiscal deficits. Some projects have also been scaled back.

In a statement on the pre-budget last month, the Finance Ministry said that non-oil growth outperformed the overall real GDP growth in the first half 2025 of 3.6%. Non-oil growth was up 4.8% during the same period and contributed over 55% of the total GDP. (Reporting and editing by Rachna uppal)

(source: Reuters)