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Gold gains 1% on US inflation data and Middle East risk focus
Investors focused on interest rate outlook as gold prices rose by 1% on Wednesday, as dollar remained subdued. By 0633 GMT, spot gold had risen 1% to $4,399.45 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.1% to $4,443.20. Dollar remained tame, allowing holders of other currencies to afford greenback-priced gold and silver. In the gold market there is a short-term tug of war between bulls and bears. This 'kind of movement may continue until the CPI report at the end of the week," said Kelvin?Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA. While the expectation of a hawkish Fed is weighing on gold prices, dollar debasement and fiscal deficit concerns remain supportive. The markets are waiting for the U.S. Producer Price Index?data due on Thursday. Consumer Price Index data is expected on Friday. Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed it fired ballistic rockets at a U.S. military base in Jordan and attacked 10 vessels, after the U.S. announced it destroyed five Iranian oil tanks, in a dramatic escalation in the six-month war. Brent crude prices rose for the?fourth session in a row. As energy costs rise, they tend to push up inflation. The 'CME FedWatch tool' shows that traders believe there is a 60% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its next policy meeting. Although gold is widely regarded as an inflation hedge, elevated rates weigh on the appeal of ?non-interest-bearing bullion. Kelly Xu is a commodities analyst at Alpine Macro. She said that precious metals are facing a test in the near term, but that another major selloff was unlikely. Silver's long-term support is based on the physical market tightness, structural supply deficits, and inelastic mining production. Spot silver rose 1.3% to $66.59; platinum rose almost 2% to $1847.33 and palladium gained 0.3% to 1,353.71.
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Inditex, Zara's owner, reports strong August sales despite heatwaves
Inditex, the owner of Zara, reported better than expected results for its autumn trading on Wednesday. Currency-adjusted sales were up 9% during August, even as extreme heat in Europe changed shopping habits in Zara's biggest market. Fast-fashion giant, Zara, made EUR11 billion ($12.8billion) in sales during its second quarter from May to July. This was a good showing considering the summer's high energy prices and the weakened consumer sentiment due to?the ongoing Iran War. Oscar Garcia Maceiras, CEO of the company, said that "these excellent results demonstrate the extraordinary abilities of our teams." He added that they were operating in an "extremely complex global environment." Inditex's share price is soaring: it hit a record EUR59.1 in the last month. The IPO filings by Shein, a cheap fashion platform, revealed a slowed down sales pace, a sign that the pressure on European fast-fashion companies like Zara and H&M to compete is easing. Inditex is trying to attract more lower-income shoppers that may have been turned off by Zara's move to higher prices. Inditex's first-half gross profit increased by 8.3% to EUR11.6 Billion, with a margin of 58.7%. LONGER, HOTTER SUMMERS The hot weather is affecting retailers in Europe and America, who are forced to change their sourcing schedules. According to European Union scientists Western Europe experienced its hottest June and July ever, as climate changes pushed temperatures up, fueling?wildfires throughout the region. RBC analysts estimate that Inditex's annual capital expenditure is three times greater than its Swedish competitor H&M.
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Russian drones kill 2 at Ukraine-Moldova Border Crossing, Authorities Say
Ukraine's authorities reported that Russian drones attacked Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, overnight. They killed two people and hit a border crossing between Ukraine?and?Moldova?in?the southern region?of Odesa. Oleh 'Kiper, the Governor of the state, announced on Telegram that two civilians were killed in an attack near the Starokozache border crossing and three others injured. Officials said that the incident, which caused a "major fire", temporarily stopped vehicle and passenger traffic across the border. Emergency services reported in a Telegram message that Russia attacked Kyiv over night, causing only fires, but no injuries. Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of Vitali, reported that a Russian drone had struck a 16-storey apartment building in the early hours of Wednesday morning. He said emergency responders would be heading to this site. After a brief pause during the visit of U.S. negotiators, Moscow resumed its almost constant air attacks against Kyiv. Five people were reportedly killed in the capital, according to officials.
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Official from MRPL says that India's refineries are operating at between 105% and 108% capacity.
A senior official from Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals, India's largest refinery, said that India's capacity utilization has ranged between?105% and 108% in the past six months. He added that increased diesel demand is forcing refiners prioritise jet fuel over diesel. Nandakumar Pillai said, "Most of the refiners we have are complex and can handle a wide variety of crudes from API ranges from 16 to 48 or 45," at APPEC's conference. Pillai, who spoke on the sidelines of the conference, said that the company planned to run at a higher?than 100 percent until March 2019. MRPL operates a 300,000-barrel-per-day coastal refinery in India's southern Karnataka state. Pillai explains that a quarter of MRPL's crude oil supply is sourced from the Middle East. A third of it comes from domestic sources and a fourth from other countries. Pillai stated that the higher demand for diesel in India has pushed refiners to prioritize diesel fuel over jet fuel. Pillai stated that "depending on the hardware we can go anywhere between 8% and 12% of the'swing'" between jet fuel and diesel.
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Sinopec Research: China's oil demand will fall by 8.9% in 2026
According to Sinopec, the research arm, China's oil consumption is expected to decline by 600,000 bbls per day or 8.9% in 2026. This will be the third consecutive annual decline, as high oil prices have curtailed consumption and electric vehicles are becoming more popular. The?decrease in oil demand, or a?long-term decline in consumption at?the largest oil importer in the world, has played a?key role in limiting China's crude oil imports and global prices despite the severe?disruption of supplies via the Strait?of Hormuz because?of the Iran war. The consumption of gasoline and diesel is expected to decline by 8.7% and 11,4% respectively, reaching 149 million metric tonnes and 164 millions tons. The Sinopec Economics & Development Research Institute reported that jet fuel consumption could increase by 1.3% per year to 41.55 millions tons in 2026. The report said that while China's refinery capacity is expected to rise to 952 mt/yr in 2026, crude production fell to 697 mt between the 2nd and 3rd quarters.
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Gold prices rise on the back of a weaker dollar, inflation data, and Mideast risk in focus
Investors remained focused on interest rates as gold prices rose on Wednesday, as the dollar was subdued. By 0505 GMT, spot gold had risen 0.6% to $4,381.32 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures fell 0.3% to $4424.70. Dollar-priced precious metals are now more affordable to holders of other currencies. In the short-term, the gold market is experiencing a tug-of war between bulls and bears. This kind of movement may continue until the end of this week when the CPI is released, said Kelvin Wong senior market analyst at OANDA. While the expectation of a hawkish Fed is weighing on gold prices, concerns over fiscal deficits and dollar debasement remain "supportive" for prices. The U.S. consumer price index is due to be released on Friday, and the producer price index will be out on Thursday. Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed it fired ballistic rockets at a U.S. military base in Jordan and attacked 10 vessels, after the U.S. announced it destroyed five Iranian oil tanks, in a dramatic escalation in the six-month war. Brent crude prices rose for the fourth time in a row. As energy costs rise, they tend to push up inflation. CME FedWatch?Tool shows that traders believe there is a 60% probability the Federal Reserve will?raise rates?at their next policy meeting. Gold is often viewed as a hedge against inflation, but high rates can make it less appealing. Kelly Xu is a commodities analyst at Alpine Macro. She said: "Precious'metals face a short-term test but another major saleoff is unlikely." Silver's long-term support is based on the physical market tightness, structural supply deficits, and inelastic mining production. Spot silver rose 0.9% to $66.31, while platinum increased 1.1% to $2,833.58. Palladium, however, fell 0.1%, to $1347.82.
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Gold prices rise as the dollar weakens and tensions between Iran and the US support prices
Gold prices rose on Wednesday, as the dollar was subdued. Meanwhile, renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran and the upcoming inflation figures kept investors focused on interest rate outlook. By 0442 GMT, spot gold had risen 0.5% to $4,375.89 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures fell 0.4% to $4,419.90. Dollar-priced precious metals are now more affordable to holders of other currencies. In the short-term, the bulls are fighting the bears in the gold market. This kind of movement may continue until the end of this week when the CPI is released," said Kelvin?Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA. While the expectation of a hawkish Fed is weighing on gold prices, concerns over fiscal deficits and dollar debasement remain "supportive" for prices. The U.S. consumer price index is due Friday, and the producer price index will be released on Thursday. Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed it fired ballistic rockets at a U.S. military base in Jordan and attacked 10 vessels, after the U.S. announced it destroyed five Iranian oil tanks, in a dramatic escalation in the six-month war. Brent crude prices rose for the fourth consecutive session. As energy costs rise, they tend to push up inflation. CME's?FedWatch Tool shows that traders believe there is a 60% probability the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its next policy meeting. Gold is often regarded as a hedge against inflation, but high rates can make it less appealing. Kelly Xu is a commodities analyst at Alpine Macro. She said that precious metals are facing a test in the near term, but that another major selloff was unlikely. Silver's long-term support is based on the physical market tightness. This will continue to be a major issue as structural supply deficits could persist due to inelastic mine production, and demand for electrification, electronics, and AI infrastructure. Spot silver rose 0.6% to $66.18, while platinum increased 0.8% to $1,828.85, and palladium dropped 0.2%, reaching $1,346.27.
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MORNING BID EUROPE-$100 Brent in sight, yen defies gravity
Kevin Buckland gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Brent crude is on the verge of hitting $100 per barrel. This was a level that was last seen at the end of July as renewed fighting in the Middle East has fuelled fears that the conflict may spiral out into a wider regional war. This backdrop is limiting the risk appetite on Asian equity markets - at least in'stocks' that are not part of the AI trade. The yen has refused to follow its usual pattern. The yen is not following the usual script. It continues to push up to seven-month-highs against the dollar, as bets placed on a faster rate increase by Bank of Japan clear out a short position that was once crowded. The other currencies remain subdued despite the fact that a blockbuster week of policy decisions was made by the European Central Bank (ECB), Federal Reserve (FRB), Bank of England and BOJ. The geopolitical landscape is getting even darker. Iran has targeted a U.S. military base in Jordan as a retaliation to U.S. attacks on its oil tankers. Meanwhile, Houthis backed by Iran have struck several Saudi cities. Brent crude moving back above $100 per barrel would deal a major psychological blow to the markets, which have spent most of this year fretting about global inflation. Even the gravity defying AI market showed cracks in July with a sharp correction. However, some of the exuberance returned to the markets recently. SK Hynix has risen over 4%, helping to lift South Korea's KOSPI by more than 2%. Fujikura Electric and Furukawa Electric, Japanese cable manufacturers, soared after a multibillion dollar deal between Verizon Fiber and Corning to provide high-density fiber rekindled excitement over data centres. This helped to keep the Nikkei Index in positive territory, despite a rising yen that typically hurts Japan’s export-heavy stock market. The yen is regaining ground on Tuesday's high rate of 152.89 to the dollar. After comments by U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent, and speculation that Japanese investors might repatriate their overseas assets into domestic bonds, the rally gained momentum. Market players claimed that the rally was self-reinforcing, as stop-loss orders were triggered. This unleashed a "wave" of short-covering which was 'amplified' by algorithmic trading. Analysts say the next level to monitor is the high of the year, which is 152. According to some, the yen may have overshot and fundamentals could 'pull it back toward 155 ahead of the BOJ meeting next Thursday and Friday. A quarter-point increase in the rate is already priced in but guidance on how fast it will happen will be important. On Thursday, the ECB will likely raise?rates just before potentially market-moving 'U.S. inflation data on Friday. The Fed will make its decision next week. Markets are divided on whether they will hike rates or not, and the BoE's rate is expected to remain unchanged. This week, key developments that may influence the markets include: ECB policy announcement on Thursday US PPI on Thursday and CPI on Friday The UK GDP will be released on Friday
Oil prices to hit $100; Asia stock markets fall as Middle East tensions increase
Brent crude rose to $100 per barrel Wednesday, keeping Asian stock markets subdued as the attacks in the Middle East intensified, fueling inflation fears ahead of the closely watched U.S. Consumer Price Data.
As traders exited their short positions, the yen rose to a near seven-month high against the dollar. This was due to expectations of faster Bank of Japan rate hikes as well as a possible rush of Japanese capital repatriation.
The euro edged up ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank policy decision, as markets were widely expecting an increase amid inflationary pressures due to the Iran War.
The?Houthis, backed by Iran, launched attacks on Saudi cities in Yemen on Tuesday. This further embroiled a U.S. ally in the conflict. Meanwhile, U.S. forces struck multiple Iranian oil tankers, and Iran attacked a U.S. military base in Jordan.
Brent crude futures rose $1.10, to $99.02 per barrel. ?U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $93.95 per barrel, an increase of $0.93.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.3%, while mainland Chinese blue-chips were little altered.
The rebound in chip stocks and?AI helped other regional benchmarks, however. South Korea's KOSPI rose 1.2% while Taiwan's TAIEX managed to gain 0.2%.
Overnight, the Philadelphia SE semiconductor index rose 1.3% despite declines in Wall Street's main three indexes.
U.S. S&P futures rose 0.1% after the cash index fell 0.6% on Wednesday.
Pan-European STOXXX 50 futures fell 0.5%.
"Across several of the major macro markets, we see indecision in the price action -- tight ranges and a general holding/consolidation pattern," Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, wrote in a client note.
Brent crude is "one of most clear real-time signals" for sentiment for the market. $100 "now seems like an extremely achievable level," said he.
Inflation fears have weighed on global equity markets in recent weeks, and bond yields are rising as traders increase the odds of central bank tightening.
The U.S. CPI is due Friday.
The odds of the U.S. Federal Reserve announcing a quarter point hike or a "hold" on Wednesday next week are close to equal, but traders are almost certain that the BOJ will announce a quarter point?increase two days later.
The yen increased by 0.5%, to 153.32 dollars per yen. This is a slight increase from its previous high of 152.89. Market players say that the yen had surged by around 4% in the last five sessions. Hawkish comments made by BOJ officials were ostensibly what sparked this move, which then snowballed when key levels were broken.
The ECB will almost certainly raise the euro zone interest rates on Thursday by a quarter-point. The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1634 and is now in the middle of the tight range it has been trading within for the last three weeks.
The value of the pound was not changed much at $1.3552. The Bank of England will announce its latest decision next Thursday. Economists predict that the key rate for the rest of the year will remain unchanged.
The Australian dollar rose by 0.2% to $0.7230.
Bitcoin climbed to $79,009.09 and changed hands.
Gold rose 0.7% to $4,385 per ounce.
(source: Reuters)